{
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_33060": [
{
"text": "Batteries are plunging in cost and are gonna drop another 10X ultimately.",
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{
"text": "We already have the very first solar plus battery baseload power plants, and they're affordable. Batteries are plunging in cost and are gonna drop another 10X ultimately.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7486856": [
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"text": "Understanding energy is critical for humanity.",
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"text": "It's one of the fundamentals, as Alex says and on his, on his Substack, you know, the innermost loop, energy is the innermost loop. Understanding energy is critical for humanity.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2565188": [
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"text": "But when you actually look at the details, it's not a reduction in time It's a reduction with cumulative scale.",
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"text": "It's because I came out of tech, and I came from a Moore's law world and came into energy and supplied Moore's law to it. But when you actually look at the details, it's not a reduction in time It's a reduction with cumulative scale.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2516818": [
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"text": "terrestrial solar, right?",
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{
"text": "uh, about Tesla building out solar-... terrestrial solar, right?",
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"text": "But now he's talking about-... uh, about Tesla building out solar-... terrestrial solar, right?",
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"text": "So, so Mez, you and I texted about this, right?",
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"text": "So that's reasonably competitive. So, so Mez, you and I texted about this, right?",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7029976": [
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"text": "Uh, so I, I, I said initially there were like four ways to get to like a terawatt of AI power.",
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"text": "So it's another way. Uh, so I, I, I said initially there were like four ways to get to like a terawatt of AI power.",
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"text": "And yeah, the, the sim-- I think this is all totally unclassified.",
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"text": "Uh, it was a different sort. And yeah, the, the sim-- I think this is all totally unclassified.",
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{
"text": "It's a kinetic embargo. Uh, it was a different sort. And yeah, the, the sim-- I think this is all totally unclassified.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1223392": [
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"text": "Like you bought the chips, you've installed the chips, can you power the chips?",
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"text": "the AI demand, uh, which is chip limited, shows roughly, you know, 200 to 275, call it 230 gigawatts of power demand based on the chips. Like you bought the chips, you've installed the chips, can you power the chips?",
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{
"text": "For folks listening-... the AI demand, uh, which is chip limited, shows roughly, you know, 200 to 275, call it 230 gigawatts of power demand based on the chips. Like you bought the chips, you've installed the chips, can you power the chips?",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2281188": [
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"text": "So companies like that, in particular Weavegrid, are using that technology to make the rest, other loads on the grid more responsive and shaped in a way to allow, uh, AI data centers to play well.",
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{
"text": "and even out the charging of the vehicles. So companies like that, in particular Weavegrid, are using that technology to make the rest, other loads on the grid more responsive and shaped in a way to allow, uh, AI data centers to play well.",
"start_ms": 2285328,
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2853369": [
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"text": "and the, you know, intellectual property protection of this data, and you've got an enormous business, right?",
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"text": "Uh, but here's something that's fascinating, and thank you for bringing that up, David, because, uh, this is actually quite important.",
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"text": "I'd say the, the barriers are still physics and engineering. Uh, but here's something that's fascinating, and thank you for bringing that up, David, because, uh, this is actually quite important.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6276472": [
{
"text": "Let me put it another way.",
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{
"text": "L- I will get to the limits on launch in a sec. Let me put it another way.",
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{
"text": "Let me... L- I will get to the limits on launch in a sec. Let me put it another way.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6333792": [
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"text": "That said, it's not clear to me that the world will permit more than, like, 200 Starship launches a year, which would already be an enormous, enormous amount.",
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"text": "I think of it as like, this is a demand driver potentially for Starship. That said, it's not clear to me that the world will permit more than, like, 200 Starship launches a year, which would already be an enormous, enormous amount.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6471222": [
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"text": "So around, uh, around 2030.",
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{
"text": "Got me All right. So around, uh, around 2030.",
"start_ms": 6465102,
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{
"text": "Yeah, that's my question Yeah. Got me All right. So around, uh, around 2030.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6562472": [
{
"text": "Uh, we're gonna like see a huge demand, and then we're gonna see-- We're gonna hit to some point of satisficing, right?",
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{
"text": "My guess is we're on an S-curve right now. Uh, we're gonna like see a huge demand, and then we're gonna see-- We're gonna hit to some point of satisficing, right?",
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{
"text": "We'll, we will make so many discoveries in algorithms and so on. My guess is we're on an S-curve right now. Uh, we're gonna like see a huge demand, and then we're gonna see-- We're gonna hit to some point of satisficing, right?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6616456": [
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"text": "the, the scenario here to, to think through is we're the current users of intelligence.",
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{
"text": "I mean-... the, the scenario here to, to think through is we're the current users of intelligence.",
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{
"text": "Right? I mean-... the, the scenario here to, to think through is we're the current users of intelligence.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_605380": [
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"text": "It's a little bit faster than that because we keep finding ways.",
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{
"text": "No. It's a little bit faster than that because we keep finding ways.",
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{
"text": "So is it actually log linear? No. It's a little bit faster than that because we keep finding ways.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4525084": [
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"text": "Uh, these projections will probably be missed.",
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{
"text": "The next AP1000 is probably, uh, a few years later than that. Uh, these projections will probably be missed.",
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{
"text": "Uh, and, uh, that's for the small ones. The next AP1000 is probably, uh, a few years later than that. Uh, these projections will probably be missed.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1286892": [
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"text": "Uh, also, I'll say there's a, there's a big miss in power demand of chips.",
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{
"text": "Some of them base on their, uh, discounted projections of what they, they can actually achieve. Uh, also, I'll say there's a, there's a big miss in power demand of chips.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4726304": [
{
"text": "and fusion's got the same timeframe, right?",
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{
"text": "... and fusion's got the same timeframe, right?",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2377988": [
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"text": "Well, data centers, because the chips are so expensive, it never makes economic sense to only run them when the sun shines, so you have to couple them with storage as well.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3409200": [
{
"text": "Um, if you look around the globe, you have Australia.",
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{
"text": "Mm-hmm Well, I think the Middle East has amazing solar resources, but it's not as lumpy as their, uh, fossil fuel resources, and especially their oil resources. Um, if you look around the globe, you have Australia.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1163481": [
{
"text": "You see even like 2028, we'll, we'll build, this is probably a little bit low.",
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{
"text": "This is like a more practical forecast. You see even like 2028, we'll, we'll build, this is probably a little bit low.",
"start_ms": 1175712,
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{
"text": "Let's move, uh, let's move on and I'll get to some of that. This is like a more practical forecast. You see even like 2028, we'll, we'll build, this is probably a little bit low.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_143220": [
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"text": "On Book Corner, where Alex and I talk about our books, I've mentioned Nexus a few times.",
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"text": "If you've not read Nexus, uh, I cannot commend it. On Book Corner, where Alex and I talk about our books, I've mentioned Nexus a few times.",
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"text": "He's the author of The Infinite Resource and one of my favorite ever science fiction novel series, The Nexus Trilogy. If you've not read Nexus, uh, I cannot commend it. On Book Corner, where Alex and I talk about our books, I've mentioned Nexus a few times.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1327852": [
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"text": "You know, that, that would make sense.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3978444": [
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"text": "Uh, China's building the most right now.",
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{
"text": "It's, it's not really known. Uh, China's building the most right now.",
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{
"text": "Uh, the US has-- generates the most nuclear electricity of any country on Earth, actually. It's, it's not really known. Uh, China's building the most right now.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_852920": [
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"text": "Uh, ERCOT currently it peaks out at about 80 gigawatts, okay?",
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{
"text": "ERCOT is the Texas grid. Uh, ERCOT currently it peaks out at about 80 gigawatts, okay?",
"start_ms": 886840,
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},
{
"text": "So this is Texas. ERCOT is the Texas grid. Uh, ERCOT currently it peaks out at about 80 gigawatts, okay?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2149012": [
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"text": "Uh, and then after this was passed in Texas, FERC, the federal regulator, regulator of electricity, sent a letter to the six largest other grids in the country, not specifying the details, but saying, \"Do something like this.\"",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4993144": [
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"text": "Uh, but you know, there's three big ones.",
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{
"text": "My fusion startup founder friends are gonna yell at me for not including their particular designs. Uh, but you know, there's three big ones.",
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{
"text": "This is a massive oversimplification. My fusion startup founder friends are gonna yell at me for not including their particular designs. Uh, but you know, there's three big ones.",
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],
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"text": "Basically, there's, you know, two approaches to nuclear fission, which is what we've been doing since the sixties.",
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{
"text": "Uh, uh, this is a complicated slide, uh, for those of you who are, uh, just listening. Basically, there's, you know, two approaches to nuclear fission, which is what we've been doing since the sixties.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_520": [
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"text": "So new technology like sodium ion batteries could drop the cost of batteries by a factor of 10.",
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{
"text": "That's the situation that we have today. So new technology like sodium ion batteries could drop the cost of batteries by a factor of 10.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5274790": [
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"text": "Um, the, the most aggressive timeline is Helion.",
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{
"text": "He's here in Seattle. Um, the, the most aggressive timeline is Helion.",
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{
"text": "Um- Yeah, David Kirtley, he's a great guy. He's here in Seattle. Um, the, the most aggressive timeline is Helion.",
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],
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"text": "Uh, on the grid side, Nvidia has made investments into increasing grid flexibility to be able to get more juice out of the current grid.",
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],
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"text": "We can talk about that separately.",
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"text": "You know, Nvidia might still be a Neocloud. We can talk about that separately.",
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"text": "But that gets you, you know, a few gigawatts, right?",
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{
"text": "Uh, three, there are some plants that have sh- been shut down, uh, like Three Mile Island, that we can actually restart safely. But that gets you, you know, a few gigawatts, right?",
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{
"text": "In some cases, we can actually upgrade them to produce more power. Uh, three, there are some plants that have sh- been shut down, uh, like Three Mile Island, that we can actually restart safely. But that gets you, you know, a few gigawatts, right?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2478908": [
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"text": "Yeah, I mean, I think, look, it's a long-term vision.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think, look, it's a long-term vision.",
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{
"text": "So we've- It is, it is reasonably competitive. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think, look, it's a long-term vision.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5814040": [
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"text": "Uh, so there's, there are more unknowns, whereas like Commonwealth Fusion's pitch is, look, the science has been proven at ITER scale that if you have magnets this strong, you can make fusion and get this much energy out.",
"start_ms": 5817940,
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},
{
"text": "Welcome to deep, deep tech investing. Uh, so there's, there are more unknowns, whereas like Commonwealth Fusion's pitch is, look, the science has been proven at ITER scale that if you have magnets this strong, you can make fusion and get this much energy out.",
"start_ms": 5816280,
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5160960": [
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"text": "The nice thing about, uh, what's on the right is at least Helion and a couple other companies capture it directly as electricity that turns into electric current.",
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],
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"text": "Uh, they're, they have long, uh, for utilities managed electric vehicle charging on the grid to reduce stress on the last mile, on the last block even, right?",
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{
"text": "Like, I'm blessed to be an investor in them'cause they're smarter than I am. Uh, they're, they have long, uh, for utilities managed electric vehicle charging on the grid to reduce stress on the last mile, on the last block even, right?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2446788": [
{
"text": "and the cost is, like, is six bucks a watt CapEx.",
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{
"text": "To do that, it's actually five gigawatts of solar and 19 gigawatt hours of batteries-... and the cost is, like, is six bucks a watt CapEx.",
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{
"text": "Uh, what that means is they guarantee that the minimum power output at any time is a giga- gigawatt. To do that, it's actually five gigawatts of solar and 19 gigawatt hours of batteries-... and the cost is, like, is six bucks a watt CapEx.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3338670": [
{
"text": "Um, you know, it's interesting.",
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{
"text": "investing in fusion companies. Um, you know, it's interesting.",
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},
{
"text": "I mean, we hear a lot about it, we talk about it, we, we speak about the hyperscalers turning on, uh, you know, defunct fission plants-... investing in fusion companies. Um, you know, it's interesting.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_904680": [
{
"text": "Most of these submissions are BS.",
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{
"text": "Most of this is speculative. Most of these submissions are BS.",
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{
"text": "They have submissions into their demand side queue for more, this is slightly out of date, for well over 200 gigawatts of load. Most of this is speculative. Most of these submissions are BS.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1129292": [
{
"text": "Let, let me, um...",
"start_ms": 1136712,
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},
{
"text": "The AI god won't be built\". Let, let me, um...",
"start_ms": 1126062,
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},
{
"text": "You know, the AI doomers would say, \"Thank God we're saved. The AI god won't be built\". Let, let me, um...",
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}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3747354": [
{
"text": "So the fact that China buys oil from Iran, us bombing Iran, uh, or even if we successfully close the strait, doesn't really hurt China that much because they can buy cargoes from somewhere else.",
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},
{
"text": "Oil is mostly fungible. So the fact that China buys oil from Iran, us bombing Iran, uh, or even if we successfully close the strait, doesn't really hurt China that much because they can buy cargoes from somewhere else.",
"start_ms": 3782204,
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},
{
"text": "I, I'm not gonna get into that right now. Oil is mostly fungible. So the fact that China buys oil from Iran, us bombing Iran, uh, or even if we successfully close the strait, doesn't really hurt China that much because they can buy cargoes from somewhere else.",
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}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6382061": [
{
"text": "I mean, here are, here are the, the numbers for...",
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{
"text": "So-... I mean, here are, here are the, the numbers for...",
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{
"text": "He talks about needing to get to airline-like operations, right? So-... I mean, here are, here are the, the numbers for...",
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],
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{
"text": "They have a, a, a...",
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{
"text": "And so they did, and they're now, uh, the frontrunner. They have a, a, a...",
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"text": "Now, if you think about it as rockets, and I've been in the rocket business for the longest period of my life, uh, it's prohibitive and it's, it's discontinuous.",
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],
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{
"text": "But permitting is also a huge issue.",
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{
"text": "So that has got in the way. But permitting is also a huge issue.",
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{
"text": "They are more oriented on, uh, customer service, on meeting the regulators' demands, and so on, than they are on building stuff fast. So that has got in the way. But permitting is also a huge issue.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1434012": [
{
"text": "So 40 of those make a gigawatt, right?",
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{
"text": "Nothing new with solar, but they make, uh, this is a 38 megawatt turbine that's, uh, on the back of a semi. So 40 of those make a gigawatt, right?",
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{
"text": "Because these guys are sold out, people are going to these small turbines, solar turbines. Nothing new with solar, but they make, uh, this is a 38 megawatt turbine that's, uh, on the back of a semi. So 40 of those make a gigawatt, right?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_303390": [
{
"text": "Three, behind the meter power.",
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{
"text": "It's not cost. Three, behind the meter power.",
"start_ms": 339480,
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{
"text": "That's everything. It's not cost. Three, behind the meter power.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3662540": [
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"text": "But overall, the world has moved to more of a services economy, and that has created, you know, sort of more, uh, demand elasticity.",
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{
"text": "So there are critical things that are highly dependent upon oil, you know, aviation, shipping, trucking, and so on. But overall, the world has moved to more of a services economy, and that has created, you know, sort of more, uh, demand elasticity.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4939774": [
{
"text": "You know, we have, we've had publicly funded fusion projects.",
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{
"text": "And, and not just that of ITER. You know, we have, we've had publicly funded fusion projects.",
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{
"text": "Indeed, indeed. And, and not just that of ITER. You know, we have, we've had publicly funded fusion projects.",
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],
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"text": "In a fission reactor, i- if you, uh, stop cooling it and you don't have the control rods in, heat will build up and it will get hot enough that it melts the steel that it's in.",
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"text": "And there's good reason for that. In a fission reactor, i- if you, uh, stop cooling it and you don't have the control rods in, heat will build up and it will get hot enough that it melts the steel that it's in.",
"start_ms": 5404420,
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{
"text": "At least Helion is at this point. And there's good reason for that. In a fission reactor, i- if you, uh, stop cooling it and you don't have the control rods in, heat will build up and it will get hot enough that it melts the steel that it's in.",
"start_ms": 5401520,
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6484812": [
{
"text": "SpaceX is thriving.",
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{
"text": "You know, he's still making money. SpaceX is thriving.",
"start_ms": 6483612,
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{
"text": "So it's a fraction of all compute that'll be in orbit when he's still on plan. You know, he's still making money. SpaceX is thriving.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3002294": [
{
"text": "Their chips are fine.",
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{
"text": "It's not like their chips are good. Their chips are fine.",
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{
"text": "Uh, NVIDIA, people don't think of them as a network effect company, but CUDA, the programming layer to write to AI is like their moat, right? It's not like their chips are good. Their chips are fine.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5491880": [
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"text": "In fusion, it's the opposite.",
"start_ms": 5482120,
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{
"text": "Fusion is different. In fusion, it's the opposite.",
"start_ms": 5480400,
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"text": "And if you eliminate the coolant, if you break the pool of coolant pipes, the core can overheat and melt down, right? Fusion is different. In fusion, it's the opposite.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1692220": [
{
"text": "If you-- By the way, listeners, if you have one, please send it to me. Why not?",
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},
{
"text": "None that I thought were amazing. If you-- By the way, listeners, if you have one, please send it to me. Why not?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4457284": [
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"text": "So, uh, uh, personally, my guess is, like, that BWRX-300, Natrium are in a awkward middle, uh, because they're not really factory-built.",
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{
"text": "Uh, but there's learning that happens from building more plants and doing more of it in a factory. So, uh, uh, personally, my guess is, like, that BWRX-300, Natrium are in a awkward middle, uh, because they're not really factory-built.",
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],
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{
"text": "you can imagine, like, breaching that containment, slicing through those pipes, and you have a meltdown. Fusion- Yeah.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6632276": [
{
"text": "You know, Andrei Karpathy talks about we're summoning the ghost, right?",
"start_ms": 6672576,
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{
"text": "We anthropomorphize these things. You know, Andrei Karpathy talks about we're summoning the ghost, right?",
"start_ms": 6670556,
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},
{
"text": "It's not alive. We anthropomorphize these things. You know, Andrei Karpathy talks about we're summoning the ghost, right?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1006620": [
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"text": "R- Ramez, you know, and there are people who are watching who are investors who want to understand this, you know, we talk about infrastructure, picks and shovels for AI.",
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{
"text": "so in that case-... R- Ramez, you know, and there are people who are watching who are investors who want to understand this, you know, we talk about infrastructure, picks and shovels for AI.",
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{
"text": "Grid's the-... so in that case-... R- Ramez, you know, and there are people who are watching who are investors who want to understand this, you know, we talk about infrastructure, picks and shovels for AI.",
"start_ms": 1004020,
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5672520": [
{
"text": "It was creeping up on us, but many folks weren't paying attention to progress in the triple product.",
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{
"text": "Uh, and, and then we look at the Lawson triple product over the decades, and we see, no, actually fusion wasn't always fifty years out. It was creeping up on us, but many folks weren't paying attention to progress in the triple product.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6030942": [
{
"text": "You have people saying, \"That's impossible.",
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{
"text": "So of course, uh, everybody's heard about Elon talking about space-based data centers, and it's interesting that the response is like very, uh, bipolar. You have people saying, \"That's impossible.",
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{
"text": "Uh, less known, but actually sort of a, a similar, uh, pitch. So of course, uh, everybody's heard about Elon talking about space-based data centers, and it's interesting that the response is like very, uh, bipolar. You have people saying, \"That's impossible.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_420899": [
{
"text": "But if you tell OpenAI or Anthropic today, \"Look, we can give you power at twice the cost that's on tomorrow,\" uh, they'll take it.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_472150": [
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"text": "If you're building a new solar plant, wind plant, natural gas plant, how long does it take before you are hooked up to the grid so you can deliver power to your customers?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5061884": [
{
"text": "Um, they're a weapons facility.",
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},
{
"text": "It-- in some ways, it's the closest thing to what happens inside the sun of the techniques that we have. Um, they're a weapons facility.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1902892": [
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"text": "Uh, he's now at Google.",
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{
"text": "Uh, this is, um, a paper by, uh, a buddy of mine, Tyler Norris. Uh, he's now at Google.",
"start_ms": 1926652,
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{
"text": "So how do you do that? Uh, this is, um, a paper by, uh, a buddy of mine, Tyler Norris. Uh, he's now at Google.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3456020": [
{
"text": "So overall, like my-- when in Middle East, I'm always counseling them on find a way to export energy.",
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{
"text": "Um, whereas the oil density underground is much, much, much higher dispersion, much higher concentration in a few spots. So overall, like my-- when in Middle East, I'm always counseling them on find a way to export energy.",
"start_ms": 3482420,
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},
{
"text": "I live in Seattle, I know this. Um, whereas the oil density underground is much, much, much higher dispersion, much higher concentration in a few spots. So overall, like my-- when in Middle East, I'm always counseling them on find a way to export energy.",
"start_ms": 3479820,
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2784420": [
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"text": "So you just use-- The law can't do it, and then secondly, the AI labs and the hyperscalers are extremely vigilant about data protections.",
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{
"text": "Half a megawatt. So you just use-- The law can't do it, and then secondly, the AI labs and the hyperscalers are extremely vigilant about data protections.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4335380": [
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"text": "So the idea of SMRs is to build as much of this in modular, repeatable, factory-built, uh, situations as possible and do as little stick building, as little assembly or construction.",
"start_ms": 4320500,
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{
"text": "in high volume and have the smallest number of moving parts. So the idea of SMRs is to build as much of this in modular, repeatable, factory-built, uh, situations as possible and do as little stick building, as little assembly or construction.",
"start_ms": 4316200,
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6972946": [
{
"text": "It will take some scaling-... to get there.",
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{
"text": "That's their target. It will take some scaling-... to get there.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4203229": [
{
"text": "Uh, radiation, we learned, you know, in the sixties that radiation causes cancer.",
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{
"text": "I think we could've done better, but people are somewhat risk-averse. Uh, radiation, we learned, you know, in the sixties that radiation causes cancer.",
"start_ms": 4219980,
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{
"text": "I don't think so exactly. I think we could've done better, but people are somewhat risk-averse. Uh, radiation, we learned, you know, in the sixties that radiation causes cancer.",
"start_ms": 4218620,
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3035904": [
{
"text": "Such an important topic because this is five trillion dollars of US market cap that's, that's hanging in the balance of this conversation.",
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{
"text": "I'm so, so glad you brought that up. Such an important topic because this is five trillion dollars of US market cap that's, that's hanging in the balance of this conversation.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4134399": [
{
"text": "What that means is, um, you can knock out the power to them, and they won't have a meltdown.",
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{
"text": "And one of those important things to understand about them is basically all of these are passive safe. What that means is, um, you can knock out the power to them, and they won't have a meltdown.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2158912": [
{
"text": "Again, like, that red dashed line, uh, not all of you, uh, some of you are just listening, the transmission line capacity and the substation, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, transformers, that's the limit.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1487260": [
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"text": "Uh, that's a very hard task with many, many billions of dollars of regulatory costs.",
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},
{
"text": "Bloom Supersonic, very cool company, trying to make, uh, supersonic jetliners a thing again. Uh, that's a very hard task with many, many billions of dollars of regulatory costs.",
"start_ms": 1473692,
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},
{
"text": "I'll give you an example. Bloom Supersonic, very cool company, trying to make, uh, supersonic jetliners a thing again. Uh, that's a very hard task with many, many billions of dollars of regulatory costs.",
"start_ms": 1472532,
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}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_351400": [
{
"text": "So let's just cement ourselves on AI is power-hungry.",
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{
"text": "And seven, finally, uh, the out of this world ideas, launching p- uh, compute into space or launching it into the oceans. So let's just cement ourselves on AI is power-hungry.",
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{
"text": "Lots of stuff happening. And seven, finally, uh, the out of this world ideas, launching p- uh, compute into space or launching it into the oceans. So let's just cement ourselves on AI is power-hungry.",
"start_ms": 354340,
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],
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"text": "Now, the bump might be so big that we're like, \"Wow, this is just over the top amazing,\" but it, it always looks concave.",
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{
"text": "So every model of RSI that does not include hardware, we can save that, every model of RSI and software fizzles over time. Now, the bump might be so big that we're like, \"Wow, this is just over the top amazing,\" but it, it always looks concave.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5338990": [
{
"text": "It's not even a game.",
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{
"text": "And that's just, you know, part of the game. It's not even a game.",
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],
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"text": "At the scale of this, right, I don't think we're gonna have...",
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{
"text": "Um, but the timelines, I think, are, are just challenging. At the scale of this, right, I don't think we're gonna have...",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6883816": [
{
"text": "You, you're seeing is the, the sphere at the top, but there's like an eighty-meter long, uh, cone that goes into the sea that's open at the bottom.",
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},
{
"text": "It's shaped like a bobby pin. You, you're seeing is the, the sphere at the top, but there's like an eighty-meter long, uh, cone that goes into the sea that's open at the bottom.",
"start_ms": 6919496,
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},
{
"text": "So what this is, this is a data center in the ocean. It's shaped like a bobby pin. You, you're seeing is the, the sphere at the top, but there's like an eighty-meter long, uh, cone that goes into the sea that's open at the bottom.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7197176": [
{
"text": "Oh, you're telling me I can spend tens of billions of dollars and my intelligence goes up like this? Great. Done.",
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],
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"text": "But at any given time in, like, winter night times, the US grid is down to, like, four hundred gigawatts of power being drawn.",
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{
"text": "It, it's much more volatile than that. But at any given time in, like, winter night times, the US grid is down to, like, four hundred gigawatts of power being drawn.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1770860": [
{
"text": "grids saying basically do something like what Texas is doing.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1990572": [
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"text": "But there's another way to do this, which is batteries.",
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{
"text": "The startup I mentioned, Emerald AI, uh, Varun Sivaram, uh, funded by NVIDIA, they do this via just software orchestration, moving jobs to the right data center, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But there's another way to do this, which is batteries.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2525748": [
{
"text": "I think his real motivation is to build that, uh, manufacturing capacity, uh, for space-based solar.",
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{
"text": "But I think his real motivation is not selling it to the on land market in the US. I think his real motivation is to build that, uh, manufacturing capacity, uh, for space-based solar.",
"start_ms": 2525748,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, he wants to build out the manufacturing for it. But I think his real motivation is not selling it to the on land market in the US. I think his real motivation is to build that, uh, manufacturing capacity, uh, for space-based solar.",
"start_ms": 2523548,
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3183773": [
{
"text": "Uh, or do you have, do we have a battery technology that can store months of power?",
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{
"text": "No. Uh, or do you have, do we have a battery technology that can store months of power?",
"start_ms": 3183564,
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},
{
"text": "So you're gonna build out your solar plant by a factor of six or seven? No. Uh, or do you have, do we have a battery technology that can store months of power?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5323740": [
{
"text": "And that's just, you know, part of the game.",
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{
"text": "Look, like, my view of this, and, uh, founders of mine who are listening, uh, please, uh, uh, don't take this as an insult, is every startup exaggerates, uh, how quickly they can get things done. And that's just, you know, part of the game.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7315196": [
{
"text": "Uh, so I think that's the sort of thing that we're in.",
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"text": "Google was less smart than a librarian, but it had every book and every webpage, uh, in its index, so it could do things that no human librarian could do. Uh, so I think that's the sort of thing that we're in.",
"start_ms": 7335156,
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{
"text": "Compare Google to a librarian. Google was less smart than a librarian, but it had every book and every webpage, uh, in its index, so it could do things that no human librarian could do. Uh, so I think that's the sort of thing that we're in.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6197652": [
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"text": "I forget what the exact year-over-year trend is.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6181832": [
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"text": "Um- For one gigawatt.",
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{
"text": "SpaceX's cumulative, uh, scale of launch. Um- For one gigawatt.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4878814": [
{
"text": "The joke was always that, uh, that fusion is fifty years in the future and always will be.",
"start_ms": 4880064,
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{
"text": "Let's talk fusion. The joke was always that, uh, that fusion is fifty years in the future and always will be.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6692556": [
{
"text": "We've-- AIs are not that.",
"start_ms": 6692556,
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{
"text": "Our urges, our drives, our desire for dominance, survival, propagation. We've-- AIs are not that.",
"start_ms": 6687756,
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},
{
"text": "Million-- tens of millions of years of being animals. Our urges, our drives, our desire for dominance, survival, propagation. We've-- AIs are not that.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6941656": [
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"text": "Uh, they're around Antarctica.",
"start_ms": 6954196,
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{
"text": "So where are the strongest waves on Earth? Uh, they're around Antarctica.",
"start_ms": 6951516,
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"text": "Um, and so wave power has been something that we have wanted for a long time, but it turns out the waves are just not strong near the places people live. So where are the strongest waves on Earth? Uh, they're around Antarctica.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4841964": [
{
"text": "This, this slide just says stuff I've already said.",
"start_ms": 4844844,
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{
"text": "Let's, uh, let's hit to, to fusion. This, this slide just says stuff I've already said.",
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],
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"text": "It's not-- It, it was like a theoretical net energy gain.",
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"text": "And NIF, that last, uh, X on the borderline, uh, is a triple product above one. It's not-- It, it was like a theoretical net energy gain.",
"start_ms": 5915372,
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{
"text": "Uh, but above one, above ten is probably what you need. And NIF, that last, uh, X on the borderline, uh, is a triple product above one. It's not-- It, it was like a theoretical net energy gain.",
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],
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"text": "So if you look at building a gigawatt data center, you're gonna spend fifty billion dollars, thirty-five billion of that for chips.",
"start_ms": 390220,
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"text": "is cheap Compared to GPUs. So if you look at building a gigawatt data center, you're gonna spend fifty billion dollars, thirty-five billion of that for chips.",
"start_ms": 386980,
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],
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"text": "I think it's probably-- it's much more modular to be solar PV, uh, powered.",
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"text": "I mean, those are the two options, and I think they're, they're both great options. I think it's probably-- it's much more modular to be solar PV, uh, powered.",
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],
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"text": "Um, uh, so no grid delays, no opposite, no local opposition, no terrestrial permitting, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7256096": [
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"text": "I, I like I've seen arguments both ways.",
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"text": "I mean, I, I've seen this, uh, I'll respond to that one because it's, it's something I think about quite a bit, no pun intended. I, I like I've seen arguments both ways.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4027124": [
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"text": "But even France is strug-struggling, right?",
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{
"text": "But even France- Yeah. But even France is strug-struggling, right?",
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{
"text": "Yep. But even France- Yeah. But even France is strug-struggling, right?",
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"text": "But yeah, so look, so Mez, why isn't every data center, uh, you know, deploying these giant battery packs?",
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{
"text": "Let me in. But yeah, so look, so Mez, why isn't every data center, uh, you know, deploying these giant battery packs?",
"start_ms": 2100442,
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{
"text": "Ready to go to the engineer's office. Let me in. But yeah, so look, so Mez, why isn't every data center, uh, you know, deploying these giant battery packs?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2043682": [
{
"text": "This is a total game changer.",
"start_ms": 2058911,
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{
"text": "if I have a magical technology that stores insane amounts of energy very cheaply, and I go to even Texas and I say, \"Hey, this can completely shift this curve. This is a total game changer.",
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"text": "Wait, Mez, Mez, but if I-... if I have a magical technology that stores insane amounts of energy very cheaply, and I go to even Texas and I say, \"Hey, this can completely shift this curve. This is a total game changer.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6530852": [
{
"text": "We're not going to achieve breakthroughs in physics that enable us to achieve all of our civilizational compute needs with, I don't know, like t- tiny breakthrough compute devices that live in mountains.",
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],
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"text": "Um, it, it sounds as like-- I, I think what you're actually wanting to argue is for the orthogonality thesis, which is popular in certain alignment circles-...",
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{
"text": "Fine. Um, it, it sounds as like-- I, I think what you're actually wanting to argue is for the orthogonality thesis, which is popular in certain alignment circles-...",
"start_ms": 6722016,
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},
{
"text": "I, I, I have to grab the bait with both hands. Fine. Um, it, it sounds as like-- I, I think what you're actually wanting to argue is for the orthogonality thesis, which is popular in certain alignment circles-...",
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],
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"text": "Their reactor is 10 megawatts, so it's 1/100 the size of an AP1000.",
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"text": "At the other end of the spectrum, you've got, like, Gradient here. Their reactor is 10 megawatts, so it's 1/100 the size of an AP1000.",
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{
"text": "But they might end up being the ideal optimal solution. At the other end of the spectrum, you've got, like, Gradient here. Their reactor is 10 megawatts, so it's 1/100 the size of an AP1000.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1956892": [
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"text": "And basically what he found was, I call it 200 by 200 or 100 by 100 at minimum.",
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{
"text": "This is the best electricity-related paper of the year in my mind. And basically what he found was, I call it 200 by 200 or 100 by 100 at minimum.",
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],
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"text": "FERC-- So Texas is interesting.",
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{
"text": "Look, Texas, Texas is the best, and I will say despite what I just showed you, Texas has made policy changes that accelerate this, and you know, people are not totally asleep at the wheel. FERC-- So Texas is interesting.",
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"text": "I'm curious, Mezz, if, if, if we just take this argument in extremis, where are the nanoreactors?",
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],
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{
"text": "Wait, do, do you believe that?",
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},
{
"text": "Wow. Wait, do, do you believe that?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3941304": [
{
"text": "So one plan is we're gonna produce, uh, a process to get more of these built.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7142636": [
{
"text": "Um, your brain runs inference on twenty watts of power.",
"start_ms": 7170936,
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},
{
"text": "I'm gonna share a slide that wasn't in my initial, uh, deck,'cause I wanna tell you what the real window, the, like the real game changer would be in AI energy use. Um, your brain runs inference on twenty watts of power.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7096386": [
{
"text": "Uh, and we do have, you know, the new technologies, companies like Fervo in the US, Tim Latimer, CEO's buddy, uh, Ever in the UK, Quaise using plasma beams to like drill super deep.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3358380": [
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"text": "May- maybe, Ramez, just a, a quick question before the, the segue.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4821844": [
{
"text": "So check out Fountain Life.",
"start_ms": 4826684,
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},
{
"text": "It's your obligation to know. So check out Fountain Life.",
"start_ms": 4824924,
"lead_ms": 3500
},
{
"text": "So at the end of the day, you can know what's going on inside your body. It's your obligation to know. So check out Fountain Life.",
"start_ms": 4822264,
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}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7076176": [
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"text": "And I'm glad that we're trying all of them, basically.",
"start_ms": 7070456,
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{
"text": "Those are the four ways that I know of to get to that scale, uh, of AI. And I'm glad that we're trying all of them, basically.",
"start_ms": 7065396,
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{
"text": "the equator, places that don't have a winter or a cloudy period, nuclear fusion or fission, space, or the oceans. Those are the four ways that I know of to get to that scale, uh, of AI. And I'm glad that we're trying all of them, basically.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3138464": [
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"text": "So the, the reality is, look, from a regulatory standpoint, we're not building transmission.",
"start_ms": 3143144,
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{
"text": "It's complicated, and, and I think we underestimate the importance of geography. So the, the reality is, look, from a regulatory standpoint, we're not building transmission.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_2926900": [
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"text": "I was gonna push back on, on-- Well, let-- First things first.",
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"text": "Uh, don't ask my girlfriend if that's true or not.",
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],
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"text": "Yeah, you know, it's interesting.",
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],
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"text": "Um, yeah, I don't expect to see RTGs become popular on Earth.",
"start_ms": 4673244,
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{
"text": "Yeah, exactly Yeah. Um, yeah, I don't expect to see RTGs become popular on Earth.",
"start_ms": 4671264,
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},
{
"text": "or, uh, space probes today. Yeah, exactly Yeah. Um, yeah, I don't expect to see RTGs become popular on Earth.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_4610544": [
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"text": "uh, the best thing that's ever happened to the nuclear industry.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3546260": [
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"text": "So there's plenty of energy out there, it's just not in usable form.",
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],
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"text": "Dave, Dave's point is, is just that i-i-in-- at inference time, interconnect locally matters to the extent you need local coherence, but you no longer need global coherence at the level of an entire supercluster.",
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],
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"text": "All right, let's talk, uh, like, uh, more interesting stuff.",
"start_ms": 2324688,
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{
"text": "I- if we're smart about it, that's the next five years of AI data center growth. All right, let's talk, uh, like, uh, more interesting stuff.",
"start_ms": 2317188,
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{
"text": "I think that's... I- if we're smart about it, that's the next five years of AI data center growth. All right, let's talk, uh, like, uh, more interesting stuff.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7384276": [
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"text": "Well, yeah, just some, some raw numbers, though, I, I think you're totally right, the, the neural nets need a huge amount of training data relative to a, to a child to come to the same conclusions.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7357656": [
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"text": "that d- digital intelligence, there's every reason to believe that it can surpass us, and that humans are no longer nowhere near the peak or the type, type of intelligence that the universe allows.",
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{
"text": "Like, I believe fully-... that d- digital intelligence, there's every reason to believe that it can surpass us, and that humans are no longer nowhere near the peak or the type, type of intelligence that the universe allows.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6144392": [
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"text": "So ten to twenty gigawatts a year.",
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{
"text": "That's the chip volume, right? So ten to twenty gigawatts a year.",
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{
"text": "So y- you know, we wanna build two hundred gigawatts of s- of compute by twenty-thirty, two-thirty. That's the chip volume, right? So ten to twenty gigawatts a year.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5583350": [
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"text": "And in addition to that, they might succeed but be too expensive. Just because-...",
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{
"text": "They might one hundred percent fail. And in addition to that, they might succeed but be too expensive. Just because-...",
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],
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"text": "And then, uh, reverse fields configuration, pulsed magnet Inertial, uh, this is basically a railgun, if you will.",
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"text": "Ju- just pull on that, uh, Peter's question, Mez, just a bit.",
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],
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"text": "Um, these are three approaches.",
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{
"text": "And then when the explosion of fusion happens, the power electronics that were creating that magnetic field that compressed the explosion or compressed the collision to make it fully fuse captures the energy in a reverse. Um, these are three approaches.",
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"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1246152": [
{
"text": "We don't have warm shells to put them in.\" Right?",
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{
"text": "We've bought the chips. We don't have warm shells to put them in.\" Right?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_6786856": [
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"text": "Uh, all animals are products of evolution, and so we have these, uh, built-in desires to survive and to propagate a- yeah, procreate, and to control our environments because of that.",
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"text": "I think we are products of evolution. Uh, all animals are products of evolution, and so we have these, uh, built-in desires to survive and to propagate a- yeah, procreate, and to control our environments because of that.",
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],
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"text": "Like, some are better than others, but let's be honest, like, the utility has enormously more horsepower in people, compute, salaries, et cetera, than the utility commission.",
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{
"text": "And the utility commission mostly just says, \"Okay.\" Like, some are better than others, but let's be honest, like, the utility has enormously more horsepower in people, compute, salaries, et cetera, than the utility commission.",
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],
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"text": "Uh, I know I've got a company I've been talking to right now, it's using, uh, Icelandic geothermal to make, uh, uh, sustainable aviation fuels, like e-fuels, power to fuels, uh, because they can export that, right?",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5862652": [
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"text": "But, you know, once upon a time, uh, fusion really was... Oh, no.",
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{
"text": "Uh, and this is a, a log scale on e- on every axis, so it's a brutal, brutal scale. But, you know, once upon a time, uh, fusion really was... Oh, no.",
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],
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"text": "Once, and this is the same thing France has seen, once the industry is no longer building, you lose the expertise, you lose the supply chain that makes the parts that you need, you lose the manufacturing facilities, uh, and everything gets more expensive.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3390950": [
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"text": "but now also being a major source of solar power.",
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},
{
"text": "being a major source of oil-... but now also being a major source of solar power.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1373192": [
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"text": "because he can't find w- warm frames for them in data centers.",
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{
"text": "Right now, the power gen that's, that's powering all of these chips that Satya talks about just collecting dust in warehouses-... because he can't find w- warm frames for them in data centers.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_946660": [
{
"text": "of them are going up.",
"start_ms": 957570,
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},
{
"text": "So both-... of them are going up.",
"start_ms": 955769,
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},
{
"text": "so I've got a new power source, and these two are demand, are load, uh, interconnection queues. So both-... of them are going up.",
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}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3241504": [
{
"text": "And if you look at, you know, the UK as an example, and if it's in Northern Europe, uh, if you go from burning natural gas for building heat to using heat pumps, your electricity demand, uh, like doubles in winter.",
"start_ms": 3246184,
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}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_7304456": [
{
"text": "Do you really think that the frontier models today, anywhere on the, the cost frontier, not necessarily like the, the fable five end of the frontier-...",
"start_ms": 7296356,
"lead_ms": 8140
},
{
"text": "it's more token efficient, it's actually quite competitive. Do you really think that the frontier models today, anywhere on the, the cost frontier, not necessarily like the, the fable five end of the frontier-...",
"start_ms": 7293256,
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}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1551140": [
{
"text": "We talked a bit about that, but I, I just want to try pressing once more on this point.",
"start_ms": 1535280,
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},
{
"text": "cogen facilities, uh, at Colossus, e-et cetera. We talked a bit about that, but I, I just want to try pressing once more on this point.",
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5773100": [
{
"text": "Oh I, I was just looking at a, a slide deck from a PB11 company, uh, just the other day.",
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{
"text": "Uh, people are very interested in it, and it is- Which one? Oh I, I was just looking at a, a slide deck from a PB11 company, uh, just the other day.",
"start_ms": 5764540,
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],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_548240": [
{
"text": "if we're, if we're just gonna jump in. Uh-...",
"start_ms": 545460,
"lead_ms": 2800
},
{
"text": "R-Rames-... if we're, if we're just gonna jump in. Uh-...",
"start_ms": 545020,
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}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_1501680": [
{
"text": "So modular, modular energy production, right?",
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}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_966200": [
{
"text": "Like, today in ERCOT, in Texas, the, like, most advanced-...",
"start_ms": 960600,
"lead_ms": 5660
},
{
"text": "I mean, ho- honestly, it's much longer than that. Like, today in ERCOT, in Texas, the, like, most advanced-...",
"start_ms": 958600,
"lead_ms": 7660
},
{
"text": "of them are going up. I mean, ho- honestly, it's much longer than that. Like, today in ERCOT, in Texas, the, like, most advanced-...",
"start_ms": 957570,
"lead_ms": 8690
}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_3377040": [
{
"text": "but now also being a major source of solar power.",
"start_ms": 3373320,
"lead_ms": 3720
},
{
"text": "I, I just wanna poll a little bit on the historic rhyme between the Middle East being a major source of oil-... but now also being a major source of solar power.",
"start_ms": 3366480,
"lead_ms": 10560
},
{
"text": "May- maybe, Ramez, just a, a quick question before the, the segue. I, I just wanna poll a little bit on the historic rhyme between the Middle East being a major source of oil-... but now also being a major source of solar power.",
"start_ms": 3363740,
"lead_ms": 13300
}
],
"200gw_hiding_in_grid_sodium_batteries_10x_cheaper_wave_power_5351760": [
{
"text": "You have to be, you have to be an optimist to get through the front doors.",
"start_ms": 5337460,
"lead_ms": 14300
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_532472": [
{
"text": "Both probably will happen in the same world. Yeah.",
"start_ms": 536012,
"lead_ms": 2300
},
{
"text": "Both, both could happen in the same world. Both probably will happen in the same world. Yeah.",
"start_ms": 534232,
"lead_ms": 4080
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3440328": [
{
"text": "Hey, Jacquie, can I give you one piece of really, really tactical advice?",
"start_ms": 3436068,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2069532": [
{
"text": "One, one last thought is I wouldn't think of yourself, uh, or limit yourself to just thinking of yourself as a hardware company.",
"start_ms": 2069532,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4691208": [
{
"text": "We've been building with our EXO community, uh, now 50,000 people, kind of a Peace Corps for the world, that as we have existing systems fail over, we have a set of people trained in that transformation.",
"start_ms": 4696988,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2931280": [
{
"text": "Uh, read Neal Stephenson's book Diamond Age.",
"start_ms": 2934420,
"lead_ms": 3350
},
{
"text": "Creative Primer. Uh, read Neal Stephenson's book Diamond Age.",
"start_ms": 2933140,
"lead_ms": 4630
},
{
"text": "It's called the Young Lady's-... Creative Primer. Uh, read Neal Stephenson's book Diamond Age.",
"start_ms": 2931660,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3792128": [
{
"text": "So I think that it's beyond question that AIs can discover new physics.",
"start_ms": 3792128,
"lead_ms": 4140
},
{
"text": "look no further than obviously today's headlines with Navier-Stokes. So I think that it's beyond question that AIs can discover new physics.",
"start_ms": 3786828,
"lead_ms": 9440
},
{
"text": "Uh-... look no further than obviously today's headlines with Navier-Stokes. So I think that it's beyond question that AIs can discover new physics.",
"start_ms": 3786568,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_895364": [
{
"text": "But, uh, keep your eyes open for more and more of the AI labs giving you a playbook to get involved and succeed through...",
"start_ms": 905724,
"lead_ms": 9040
},
{
"text": "But, uh, yeah, I think you'll learn about it tomorrow. But, uh, keep your eyes open for more and more of the AI labs giving you a playbook to get involved and succeed through...",
"start_ms": 903524,
"lead_ms": 11240
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_265480": [
{
"text": "In an exponential age, feeling behind can feel terrifying, but the good news is you can leapfrog really quickly. And I do...",
"start_ms": 283320,
"lead_ms": 7360
},
{
"text": "If... In an exponential age, feeling behind can feel terrifying, but the good news is you can leapfrog really quickly. And I do...",
"start_ms": 283080,
"lead_ms": 7600
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_760733": [
{
"text": "But what I really wanna do is enable, uh, the operating system and the AI systems we build to be franchised.",
"start_ms": 770984,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4633448": [
{
"text": "Healthcare systems, legal systems, intellectual property.",
"start_ms": 4646808,
"lead_ms": 3360
},
{
"text": "You know, there's about 50 institutions by which we run the world. Healthcare systems, legal systems, intellectual property.",
"start_ms": 4643948,
"lead_ms": 6220
},
{
"text": "Democracy is breaking, education is broken, all the institutions. You know, there's about 50 institutions by which we run the world. Healthcare systems, legal systems, intellectual property.",
"start_ms": 4639288,
"lead_ms": 10880
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4108148": [
{
"text": "You know, I really encourage you to stick with it.",
"start_ms": 4134808,
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},
{
"text": "And the avatars are just almost good enough, but not quite there, but it's so close. You know, I really encourage you to stick with it.",
"start_ms": 4128768,
"lead_ms": 7859
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3267900": [
{
"text": "I don't think that's the end of the story.",
"start_ms": 3269548,
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},
{
"text": "solar, wind. I don't think that's the end of the story.",
"start_ms": 3267960,
"lead_ms": 3588
},
{
"text": "We talk about fission, fusion, fossil fuels-... solar, wind. I don't think that's the end of the story.",
"start_ms": 3264980,
"lead_ms": 6568
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4909612": [
{
"text": "Some, some, some, some of us do.",
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1595608": [
{
"text": "Like, the, the industry is advancing through defensive co-scaling right now, and very well intentioned, uh, interests on the government side could try to, it...",
"start_ms": 1599288,
"lead_ms": 11240
},
{
"text": "The- there, there are so many different ways. Like, the, the industry is advancing through defensive co-scaling right now, and very well intentioned, uh, interests on the government side could try to, it...",
"start_ms": 1597408,
"lead_ms": 13120
},
{
"text": "I'd say hands off. The- there, there are so many different ways. Like, the, the industry is advancing through defensive co-scaling right now, and very well intentioned, uh, interests on the government side could try to, it...",
"start_ms": 1595608,
"lead_ms": 14920
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1109028": [
{
"text": "Very, very quickly, uh, uh, there's two theories of consciousness.",
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2777612": [
{
"text": "So that plus, say, 21st century skills, which is, is called the six Cs if you can, uh, get your head around that.",
"start_ms": 2795772,
"lead_ms": 7000
},
{
"text": "That's starting to happen in charter schools and certain, uh... So that plus, say, 21st century skills, which is, is called the six Cs if you can, uh, get your head around that.",
"start_ms": 2792192,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1522988": [
{
"text": "So if, if, if I were spending a lot of time, uh, on the, the government employee side right now, that would be my primary target.",
"start_ms": 1522988,
"lead_ms": 7360
},
{
"text": "Yeah, I- I think the, the risk at this point is overregulation, not under regulation. So if, if, if I were spending a lot of time, uh, on the, the government employee side right now, that would be my primary target.",
"start_ms": 1517788,
"lead_ms": 12560
},
{
"text": "Which level? Yeah, I- I think the, the risk at this point is overregulation, not under regulation. So if, if, if I were spending a lot of time, uh, on the, the government employee side right now, that would be my primary target.",
"start_ms": 1514988,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1004904": [
{
"text": "and you say, \"Look, I have domain knowledge.",
"start_ms": 1022264,
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},
{
"text": "The, the other thing you can do is if you go to mercor.com and you say, \"Look, I have domain knowledge.",
"start_ms": 1018844,
"lead_ms": 5500
},
{
"text": "Yeah. The, the other thing you can do is if you go to mercor.com and you say, \"Look, I have domain knowledge.",
"start_ms": 1004904,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4871942": [
{
"text": "It's gonna corrupt young people.\" Same pattern.",
"start_ms": 4886962,
"lead_ms": 3310
},
{
"text": "It's gonna spread misinformation. It's gonna corrupt young people.\" Same pattern.",
"start_ms": 4885402,
"lead_ms": 4870
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1316738": [
{
"text": "He said, \"Just show up.",
"start_ms": 1343348,
"lead_ms": 1540
},
{
"text": "He said, \"I didn't even get a call back.\" He said, \"Just show up.",
"start_ms": 1341328,
"lead_ms": 3560
},
{
"text": "Why are you not in the office?\" He said, \"I didn't even get a call back.\" He said, \"Just show up.",
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2724672": [
{
"text": "First, your, your comment is dead on.",
"start_ms": 2731332,
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},
{
"text": "Let me make three quick points here. First, your, your comment is dead on.",
"start_ms": 2729512,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, I mean, uh, trying to keep this concise will be tricky. Let me make three quick points here. First, your, your comment is dead on.",
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1924552": [
{
"text": "So hardware, you know, traditionally is hard.",
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, that's a, that's a great question. So hardware, you know, traditionally is hard.",
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2041721": [
{
"text": "I would also, my first question to a group building hardware is what have you built so far?",
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},
{
"text": "Dave, I-... I would also, my first question to a group building hardware is what have you built so far?",
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2172124": [
{
"text": "I think the other thing, uh, if for the c- a couple of pe- people mentioned the luck thing, we're actually finding ways of connecting people orthogonally.",
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],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4381008": [
{
"text": "The self-supervised task of next word, next token, next bit prediction, I, I think that has effectively infinite longevity to it.",
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],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3087920": [
{
"text": "I'll just say BCIs are the obvious solution for so many different classes of difficulties, n- not just folks suffering from various motor disorders, but, uh, for human augmentation as well.",
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],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1637358": [
{
"text": "But if you, if you say, \"Yeah, I...",
"start_ms": 1680668,
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},
{
"text": "And make sure that you study up and understand that topic,'cause very few people really master a topic. But if you, if you say, \"Yeah, I...",
"start_ms": 1674758,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2594912": [
{
"text": "Uh, also, like, you know, a, a lot of places can have AI-assisted things on the walls, like, like voices that you can talk to for self-service.",
"start_ms": 2600951,
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},
{
"text": "So planning is a good one. Uh, also, like, you know, a, a lot of places can have AI-assisted things on the walls, like, like voices that you can talk to for self-service.",
"start_ms": 2599312,
"lead_ms": 9540
},
{
"text": "But anyway, my, my advice is start with, uh, the virtual stuff. So planning is a good one. Uh, also, like, you know, a, a lot of places can have AI-assisted things on the walls, like, like voices that you can talk to for self-service.",
"start_ms": 2596792,
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2889992": [
{
"text": "No, no, that's great.",
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_512572": [
{
"text": "that we're limited by.",
"start_ms": 512581,
"lead_ms": 1091
},
{
"text": "You know, we have 100 trillion, 100 trillion, uh, synaptic connections, 100 billion neurons-... that we're limited by.",
"start_ms": 508112,
"lead_ms": 5560
},
{
"text": "And so, uh, I think we're gonna start to see some pretty, uh, significant and rapid advances, uh, in BCI. You know, we have 100 trillion, 100 trillion, uh, synaptic connections, 100 billion neurons-... that we're limited by.",
"start_ms": 501562,
"lead_ms": 12110
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1788508": [
{
"text": "So when they're there, you want to know that they just had the hallelujah moment.",
"start_ms": 1816512,
"lead_ms": 4580
},
{
"text": "You can't, you know, force the, the horse to drink. So when they're there, you want to know that they just had the hallelujah moment.",
"start_ms": 1813832,
"lead_ms": 7260
},
{
"text": "You want to be there on that day, but you can't, you can't force it. You can't, you know, force the, the horse to drink. So when they're there, you want to know that they just had the hallelujah moment.",
"start_ms": 1810252,
"lead_ms": 10840
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4142087": [
{
"text": "And so I, I think you're on exactly the right track, and if you just...",
"start_ms": 4181328,
"lead_ms": 3860
},
{
"text": "And if you're first to market figuring that out, like what is allowed, you know, k- then I, I think the AI is gonna be an unbelievably powerful ally in helping people. And so I, I think you're on exactly the right track, and if you just...",
"start_ms": 4170287,
"lead_ms": 14901
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4781712": [
{
"text": "And so we're gonna have rough spots.",
"start_ms": 4832712,
"lead_ms": 1700
},
{
"text": "We are demonetizing and democratizing access to intelligence, energy, longevity, uh, and these are all good things for humanity. And so we're gonna have rough spots.",
"start_ms": 4823072,
"lead_ms": 11340
},
{
"text": "What is absolutely true is that we are uplifting humanity. We are demonetizing and democratizing access to intelligence, energy, longevity, uh, and these are all good things for humanity. And so we're gonna have rough spots.",
"start_ms": 4817992,
"lead_ms": 16420
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4722788": [
{
"text": "But- And we're gonna have challenges.",
"start_ms": 4744848,
"lead_ms": 2144
},
{
"text": "You know, I'm optimistic in the long run, right, for, uh, for humanity. But- And we're gonna have challenges.",
"start_ms": 4739448,
"lead_ms": 7544
},
{
"text": "Uh, I, I'm not, uh, uh... You know, I'm optimistic in the long run, right, for, uh, for humanity. But- And we're gonna have challenges.",
"start_ms": 4736028,
"lead_ms": 10964
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4407618": [
{
"text": "Um, you can generalize it, but I'm not sure you need to.",
"start_ms": 4409868,
"lead_ms": 3500
},
{
"text": "Yeah. Um, you can generalize it, but I'm not sure you need to.",
"start_ms": 4409008,
"lead_ms": 4360
},
{
"text": "You can, again, solve the mysteries of the universe very well. Yeah. Um, you can generalize it, but I'm not sure you need to.",
"start_ms": 4404688,
"lead_ms": 8680
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4452048": [
{
"text": "if you want to open that door or not.",
"start_ms": 4445648,
"lead_ms": 6400
},
{
"text": "I don't know-... if you want to open that door or not.",
"start_ms": 4444768,
"lead_ms": 7280
},
{
"text": "but I don't know. I don't know-... if you want to open that door or not.",
"start_ms": 4442308,
"lead_ms": 9740
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3286028": [
{
"text": "I, I would fully expect in the next 10 years we're going to be well into our post-fusion era, and we're going to have post-fusion energy sources as well.",
"start_ms": 3271548,
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},
{
"text": "I don't think that's the end of the story. I, I would fully expect in the next 10 years we're going to be well into our post-fusion era, and we're going to have post-fusion energy sources as well.",
"start_ms": 3269548,
"lead_ms": 16480
},
{
"text": "solar, wind. I don't think that's the end of the story. I, I would fully expect in the next 10 years we're going to be well into our post-fusion era, and we're going to have post-fusion energy sources as well.",
"start_ms": 3267960,
"lead_ms": 18068
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2810932": [
{
"text": "Yeah, I, I- Thank you.",
"start_ms": 2810932,
"lead_ms": 3680
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1282208": [
{
"text": "And so the first thing you want to do is make it easy for them to sign a check. That's...",
"start_ms": 1298098,
"lead_ms": 3580
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_5017532": [
{
"text": "Uh, the other alternative is that we have no...",
"start_ms": 5032152,
"lead_ms": 4300
},
{
"text": "Uh, so that's path one. Uh, the other alternative is that we have no...",
"start_ms": 5030392,
"lead_ms": 6060
},
{
"text": "Um, so if we are living in a simulation, then somebody created that simulation, and that would be the, uh, all-seeing intelligence, right? Uh, so that's path one. Uh, the other alternative is that we have no...",
"start_ms": 5021472,
"lead_ms": 14980
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3226690": [
{
"text": "Y- short answer is yes.",
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}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3305557": [
{
"text": "other Dyson swarms.",
"start_ms": 3305628,
"lead_ms": 1320
},
{
"text": "Independ- independently, independently of Elon, although some of the compute may run on his Dyson swarm, I think there will be-... other Dyson swarms.",
"start_ms": 3298818,
"lead_ms": 8130
},
{
"text": "to AI helping us to invent post-fusion energy sources. Independ- independently, independently of Elon, although some of the compute may run on his Dyson swarm, I think there will be-... other Dyson swarms.",
"start_ms": 3287048,
"lead_ms": 19900
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3786797": [
{
"text": "So I'll, I'll just say I am very optimistic that AI can discover new physics. Uh-...",
"start_ms": 3780968,
"lead_ms": 5860
}
],
"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_4504288": [
{
"text": "But you're looking at the current infrastructure running millions of times faster, and then as Alex said, that's all that's gonna matter,'cause it's gonna think of everything else after that and just explain it to us. So I, I think...",
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"text": "So it's, it's the realm of, of...",
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"text": "Yeah. So it's, it's the realm of, of...",
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"text": "How does that change- Yeah. Yeah. So it's, it's the realm of, of...",
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"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3448848": [
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"text": "But I love the idea of just starting with w- when somebody's camping and they're not good at it, they have a billion questions.",
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"text": "And it, it can turn into a mega business in no time flat. But I love the idea of just starting with w- when somebody's camping and they're not good at it, they have a billion questions.",
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"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_321500": [
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"text": "Also, you have the opportunity, in being a little bit further away, of really experimenting with new structures, and, and, and that gives you a place to play and a playground to kind of tinker.",
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"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_3967498": [
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"text": "Uh, we heard earlier on this, uh, AMA, uh, someone who shared, uh, their plans, so hopefully they can, they can post a link for you in the, in the chat here.",
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"text": "I know they're being built. Uh, we heard earlier on this, uh, AMA, uh, someone who shared, uh, their plans, so hopefully they can, they can post a link for you in the, in the chat here.",
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"text": "Uh, I don't offhand. I know they're being built. Uh, we heard earlier on this, uh, AMA, uh, someone who shared, uh, their plans, so hopefully they can, they can post a link for you in the, in the chat here.",
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"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2537872": [
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"text": "Well, hey, what, what I find, uh, you know, in the physical world everything is lagging a little bit.",
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"text": "I think that's probably at least six to nine months away from being an open call for interest.",
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"text": "But what I really wanna do is enable, uh, the operating system and the AI systems we build to be franchised. I think that's probably at least six to nine months away from being an open call for interest.",
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"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_1729348": [
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"text": "But at least you can be first on the ground when it does hit and get pulled in right away to the, usually it's the crisis team.",
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"ask_the_mates_anything_moonshots_ama_289_2619092": [
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"text": "or, or prompting a caregiver to take the time to describe their day, what they do, like keep a log minute to minute, and enter it into whatever your favorite free or low-cost LLM is, and ask it for advice.",
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"text": "the idea of having a caregiver, uh, and... or, or prompting a caregiver to take the time to describe their day, what they do, like keep a log minute to minute, and enter it into whatever your favorite free or low-cost LLM is, and ask it for advice.",
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"text": "Uh, so, so, uh, first, I, I, I know it's popular in the lore to talk about, say, uh, reproducing an Einstein discovering general relativity, but only being pre-trained on whatever the literature was prior to that. But actually-...",
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"text": "This is actually done. Uh, so, so, uh, first, I, I, I know it's popular in the lore to talk about, say, uh, reproducing an Einstein discovering general relativity, but only being pre-trained on whatever the literature was prior to that. But actually-...",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6952848": [
{
"text": "Uh, this week, Archer Aviation acquired three Boeing companies in a single deal.",
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{
"text": "All right, I'm gonna turn to our final story here. Uh, this week, Archer Aviation acquired three Boeing companies in a single deal.",
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{
"text": "Check it out at moonshots.com. All right, I'm gonna turn to our final story here. Uh, this week, Archer Aviation acquired three Boeing companies in a single deal.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6686518": [
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"text": "What they're doing now is all of these companies in the world are their advertising clients.",
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{
"text": "Like, again, the... What they're doing now is all of these companies in the world are their advertising clients.",
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{
"text": "You know? Like, again, the... What they're doing now is all of these companies in the world are their advertising clients.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4849760": [
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"text": "I wanna, I wanna turn to the second story here, uh, which is the scientific basis for Sanders' concerns.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. I wanna, I wanna turn to the second story here, uh, which is the scientific basis for Sanders' concerns.",
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{
"text": "Three-quarters of Americans fear AI, and Bernie Sanders is a politician, and he's playing to the populous vote here. Yeah. I wanna, I wanna turn to the second story here, uh, which is the scientific basis for Sanders' concerns.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2505668": [
{
"text": "But history rhymes quite a bit.",
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"text": "leaned heavily on post-training thanks to the Cursor acquisition, which I think is still in the process a- as we're, as we're recording this, of being completed. But history rhymes quite a bit.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3004880": [
{
"text": "That's Macrohard. Right?",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_866616": [
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"text": "to highlight, right, which is that we spend today huge amounts of money on treating chronic diseases at the end of life. Eight Yeah.",
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{
"text": "You know, Peter, you've pointed out something that I think is incredibly important-... to highlight, right, which is that we spend today huge amounts of money on treating chronic diseases at the end of life. Eight Yeah.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_962996": [
{
"text": "Nobody's listening.",
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{
"text": "Nobody's watching. Nobody's listening.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7012650": [
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"text": "So it's you and your family at 200 miles an hour for 150 miles, and they're in stage four of FAA certification, it's-- which is the final stage.",
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{
"text": "Uh, their S4 tiltrotor carries four passengers plus a pilot, right? So it's you and your family at 200 miles an hour for 150 miles, and they're in stage four of FAA certification, it's-- which is the final stage.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7121890": [
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"text": "336 nautical mile range, a much longer range'cause it's basically flying like an airplane after it gets vertical.",
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{
"text": "Uh, Dean Kamen, uh, Martine Rothblatt are big investors in this one. 336 nautical mile range, a much longer range'cause it's basically flying like an airplane after it gets vertical.",
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{
"text": "And there's Beta Technologies in Vermont. Uh, Dean Kamen, uh, Martine Rothblatt are big investors in this one. 336 nautical mile range, a much longer range'cause it's basically flying like an airplane after it gets vertical.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4954240": [
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"text": "Actually, I believe we discussed on this podcast before, I said you would be able to create something like this on your local machine.",
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"text": "No, I think, um, it's impossible to control the other. Actually, I believe we discussed on this podcast before, I said you would be able to create something like this on your local machine.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. No, I think, um, it's impossible to control the other. Actually, I believe we discussed on this podcast before, I said you would be able to create something like this on your local machine.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6392972": [
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"text": "And I think the jury is still out.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2609144": [
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"text": "They won't get you past the frontier, so it, it's sort of like a one-trick pony in terms of nearly catching up, but it's a heck of a one-trick pony.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3391825": [
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"text": "And the same will apply here.",
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"text": "But no, you know, it's, it's not the instrument that was broken, it's the ratings agencies getting corrupted. And the same will apply here.",
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{
"text": "And- He said, \"Well, thanks.\" But no, you know, it's, it's not the instrument that was broken, it's the ratings agencies getting corrupted. And the same will apply here.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1346528": [
{
"text": "The third one, very quickly, then we'll go into the discussion here.",
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{
"text": "So things are moving quickly there. The third one, very quickly, then we'll go into the discussion here.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7069070": [
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"text": "Their Midnight aircraft carries four plus a pilot, 150 miles per hour as well, 100 miles range.",
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{
"text": "Archer Aviation is right behind them. Their Midnight aircraft carries four plus a pilot, 150 miles per hour as well, 100 miles range.",
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{
"text": "That's basically the Uber Black territory. Archer Aviation is right behind them. Their Midnight aircraft carries four plus a pilot, 150 miles per hour as well, 100 miles range.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5080800": [
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"text": "It's, it's wonderful that we're able to do base level generative AI for bacteriophage synthesis.",
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{
"text": "I, I, I have a cold take, uh, ironically, on, on this one, which is I don't think this is profoundly new. It's, it's wonderful that we're able to do base level generative AI for bacteriophage synthesis.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3944804": [
{
"text": "We've talked about this ad nauseam.",
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{
"text": "This matters'cause transformer architectures, while dominant, have a known ceiling, the quadratic cost of attention over long sequences and the massive parameter counts required for marginal gains. We've talked about this ad nauseam.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1528247": [
{
"text": "for the rest of us, you know, we could put our avatars live in the next month or two at a level that you won't be able to tell. It's a fair cop.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6670678": [
{
"text": "You don't have to go anyplace else.",
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{
"text": "Yes I think he wants people to stick in all of his apps. You don't have to go anyplace else.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6812198": [
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"text": "You know, he's got great stories about his conversations with Zuck and the acquisition, and then his getting exited from, uh, from Facebook/Meta.",
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{
"text": "Well, we're gonna have Palmer Luckey on stage with us at Moonshots Live, and we can... You know, he's got great stories about his conversations with Zuck and the acquisition, and then his getting exited from, uh, from Facebook/Meta.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3751744": [
{
"text": "Uh, Core Weave just came out and said that s- some of their clients have taken out contracts to twenty twenty-nine for A100s.",
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{
"text": "I think there's one more factor here that really is being underestimated. Uh, Core Weave just came out and said that s- some of their clients have taken out contracts to twenty twenty-nine for A100s.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5217930": [
{
"text": "What Alex- What Alex is talking about is, you know, a, a pandemic moves at the best at the speed of an airplane, right?",
"start_ms": 5217940,
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{
"text": "Yeah. What Alex- What Alex is talking about is, you know, a, a pandemic moves at the best at the speed of an airplane, right?",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5330290": [
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"text": "So even if you manage to put virus detectors on every laptop in the world through some magical process, some other threat will be discovered every single month forever hereafter.",
"start_ms": 5347430,
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{
"text": "New physics, new science is gonna be created at an insane rate. So even if you manage to put virus detectors on every laptop in the world through some magical process, some other threat will be discovered every single month forever hereafter.",
"start_ms": 5342850,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2234548": [
{
"text": "Uh, I mean, th- this is a very specific use case.",
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{
"text": "Emad, you said something, Emad, you said something a few podcasts ago that we're gonna end up with a world or a frontier model running on a MacBook Air. Uh, I mean, th- this is a very specific use case.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Emad, you said something, Emad, you said something a few podcasts ago that we're gonna end up with a world or a frontier model running on a MacBook Air. Uh, I mean, th- this is a very specific use case.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_173120": [
{
"text": "So guys, uh, last night I was in Utah at the University of Utah.",
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{
"text": "Please remember that having an optimistic and abundance mindset is a choice, and our mission here is to deliver data-driven optimism that helps you make that choice. So guys, uh, last night I was in Utah at the University of Utah.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_233400": [
{
"text": "We had 800 teams enter this competition, every possible approach from mitochondria to, uh, you know, uh, stem cells to, you know, gene editing.",
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{
"text": "Uh, and it's extraordinary. We had 800 teams enter this competition, every possible approach from mitochondria to, uh, you know, uh, stem cells to, you know, gene editing.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3887284": [
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"text": "So Arc AGI is the test that actually measures reasoning, not pattern matching.",
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{
"text": "It's a new non-transformer architecture, uh, that is starting to climb the Arc AGI benchmark at a fraction of the compute cost of traditional models. So Arc AGI is the test that actually measures reasoning, not pattern matching.",
"start_ms": 3910744,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1199588": [
{
"text": "So our first story is a company called Higgsfield that just made a, a movie called Cully Hill Boys.",
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{
"text": "Um, these are three stories that landed this week together describe really I, I think the collapse of Hollywood economics and the rise of something much bigger. So our first story is a company called Higgsfield that just made a, a movie called Cully Hill Boys.",
"start_ms": 1190348,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8081538": [
{
"text": "And I, I think the answer-- the question almost answers itself, that it is true that sometimes nation states behave poorly, and there is quite a bit of damage, including collateral damage, to individual humans, not just to other nation states.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6854758": [
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"text": "You need the power in, in order to make the move, and I, I think it's instructive also where he's building Hyperion, uh, and, and, and his other coherent superclusters.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4584080": [
{
"text": "I think it's a terrible idea to penalize intelligence.",
"start_ms": 4593770,
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},
{
"text": "I, I think at one level, please stop punishing intelligence. I think it's a terrible idea to penalize intelligence.",
"start_ms": 4589560,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, I think this is fundamentally misguided on multiple levels. I, I think at one level, please stop punishing intelligence. I think it's a terrible idea to penalize intelligence.",
"start_ms": 4585120,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7224430": [
{
"text": "Well, so it is the cost of electricity.",
"start_ms": 7231750,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. Well, so it is the cost of electricity.",
"start_ms": 7231490,
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},
{
"text": "Dave, what's your take on all this? Yeah. Well, so it is the cost of electricity.",
"start_ms": 7224430,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4361792": [
{
"text": "As you know, this type of development in the wrong hands could lead to a new bioweapon that results in deaths of tens of millions of people.",
"start_ms": 4395112,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, this week we learned frighteningly that AI has been used for the first time ever to create a new virus. As you know, this type of development in the wrong hands could lead to a new bioweapon that results in deaths of tens of millions of people.",
"start_ms": 4387912,
"lead_ms": 16400
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1116208": [
{
"text": "which I've made before, which is that, you know, the business model of religion is to sell heaven.",
"start_ms": 1116238,
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{
"text": "So- So I'll make a comment here-... which I've made before, which is that, you know, the business model of religion is to sell heaven.",
"start_ms": 1113348,
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},
{
"text": "Sadly true. So- So I'll make a comment here-... which I've made before, which is that, you know, the business model of religion is to sell heaven.",
"start_ms": 1110068,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5976346": [
{
"text": "And there's nothing wrong with it, right?",
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{
"text": "And I challenge the idea that people, even people who are generating art and music and, you know, culturally relevant things, aren't using AI to some degree. And there's nothing wrong with it, right?",
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{
"text": "Yeah. And I challenge the idea that people, even people who are generating art and music and, you know, culturally relevant things, aren't using AI to some degree. And there's nothing wrong with it, right?",
"start_ms": 5976346,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_423468": [
{
"text": "And we could expect the same thing to happen here, where you end up with a-- essentially, you're creating a $101 million bet.",
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{
"text": "plus all the members of all the teams end up going to SpaceX, Blue Origin, et cetera, et cetera. And we could expect the same thing to happen here, where you end up with a-- essentially, you're creating a $101 million bet.",
"start_ms": 424138,
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{
"text": "Because the collective innovation-... plus all the members of all the teams end up going to SpaceX, Blue Origin, et cetera, et cetera. And we could expect the same thing to happen here, where you end up with a-- essentially, you're creating a $101 million bet.",
"start_ms": 421548,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4305292": [
{
"text": "So two stories converge this week to create the most serious AI safety confrontation of the year.",
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{
"text": "Well, speaking about attention being all our need, all we need, the AI world is getting a lot of attention from Bernie Sanders. So two stories converge this week to create the most serious AI safety confrontation of the year.",
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{
"text": "Love that. Well, speaking about attention being all our need, all we need, the AI world is getting a lot of attention from Bernie Sanders. So two stories converge this week to create the most serious AI safety confrontation of the year.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3415216": [
{
"text": "I mean, that's, I mean, that's the story of exponential tech.",
"start_ms": 3440256,
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{
"text": "Your-- the game has changed. I mean, that's, I mean, that's the story of exponential tech.",
"start_ms": 3439016,
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},
{
"text": "Changes the whole game, and you've just, you know, basically financed something for 10 years or 20 years and you can't earn revenue on it anymore. Your-- the game has changed. I mean, that's, I mean, that's the story of exponential tech.",
"start_ms": 3431196,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3829244": [
{
"text": "It's before the chip breakthroughs.",
"start_ms": 3848324,
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{
"text": "So we still have enough installed base, and this is the ideal time to financialize because it's before the next generation chips. It's before the chip breakthroughs.",
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{
"text": "You can run any of the new models on that, as well as the Blackwells. So we still have enough installed base, and this is the ideal time to financialize because it's before the next generation chips. It's before the chip breakthroughs.",
"start_ms": 3838224,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7651414": [
{
"text": "And sometimes it has like hiding and lying behaviors.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4751930": [
{
"text": "I, I just want to clarify a couple things, though.",
"start_ms": 4762320,
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{
"text": "Yeah, I read it the same way. I, I just want to clarify a couple things, though.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5655766": [
{
"text": "Everybody's coming out, and I, I love this one from Michael, uh, Angel Duran.",
"start_ms": 5702186,
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},
{
"text": "I've seen about a dozen of them. Everybody's coming out, and I, I love this one from Michael, uh, Angel Duran.",
"start_ms": 5700386,
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{
"text": "These are two of the posts. I've seen about a dozen of them. Everybody's coming out, and I, I love this one from Michael, uh, Angel Duran.",
"start_ms": 5698706,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5741706": [
{
"text": "Like at the high level, it's the em dash, it's the not XY.",
"start_ms": 5757286,
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{
"text": "Um, and you know, again, like you can see all these very interesting statistical things. Like at the high level, it's the em dash, it's the not XY.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7852446": [
{
"text": "Could an--'Cause I think about this constantly.",
"start_ms": 7852446,
"lead_ms": 1880
},
{
"text": "Well, why don't we tag team it? Could an--'Cause I think about this constantly.",
"start_ms": 7851066,
"lead_ms": 3260
},
{
"text": "I don't wanna take it from you, buddy. Well, why don't we tag team it? Could an--'Cause I think about this constantly.",
"start_ms": 7844466,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3115640": [
{
"text": "All right. Let's move on.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7795066": [
{
"text": "The really, uh, the really big advantage and competitive advantage is gonna be the speed of the feedba- feedback loop.",
"start_ms": 7822156,
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}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5597586": [
{
"text": "Go to fountainlife.com/peter.",
"start_ms": 5612066,
"lead_ms": 2200
},
{
"text": "So if having healthy brain function, uh, till a hundred, a hundred and twenty is important to you, check out Fountain Life. Go to fountainlife.com/peter.",
"start_ms": 5604286,
"lead_ms": 9980
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5168100": [
{
"text": "That's-- It's more incremental, I think, than anything else.",
"start_ms": 5172280,
"lead_ms": 3360
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{
"text": "So we're gaining incrementally better ability to achieve custom effects. That's-- It's more incremental, I think, than anything else.",
"start_ms": 5168100,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4779390": [
{
"text": "I, I-- when I first read it, I said, \"God, what a schoolyard bully asshole.",
"start_ms": 4782940,
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{
"text": "That's all he's trying to achieve here. I, I-- when I first read it, I said, \"God, what a schoolyard bully asshole.",
"start_ms": 4781100,
"lead_ms": 5540
},
{
"text": "\"I told you so.\" That's all he's trying to achieve here. I, I-- when I first read it, I said, \"God, what a schoolyard bully asshole.",
"start_ms": 4780300,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1453778": [
{
"text": "So you've heard kind of the Disruption of Hollywood, like you never need to reshoot a scene now with the flows that you have.",
"start_ms": 1461828,
"lead_ms": 8260
},
{
"text": "And it will just do it instantly on your local kind of laptop. So you've heard kind of the Disruption of Hollywood, like you never need to reshoot a scene now with the flows that you have.",
"start_ms": 1457798,
"lead_ms": 12290
},
{
"text": "Um, now you can do a spaghetti-eating Will Smith, right? And it will just do it instantly on your local kind of laptop. So you've heard kind of the Disruption of Hollywood, like you never need to reshoot a scene now with the flows that you have.",
"start_ms": 1454388,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4000264": [
{
"text": "So the question is, like, which of these architectures will win in order to do a job, and will people really care and switch over?",
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{
"text": "Then you have Grok at $6, and then you've got Fable at $50, and they're all about the same performance. So the question is, like, which of these architectures will win in order to do a job, and will people really care and switch over?",
"start_ms": 4030324,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6480302": [
{
"text": "Um, th-this is a tepid take, not a hot take.",
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},
{
"text": "I would say- So psychology 101 here. Um, th-this is a tepid take, not a hot take.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8139458": [
{
"text": "It's the job of all of humanity.",
"start_ms": 8137818,
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},
{
"text": "And so the, the summary of my answer to this question is, it's not necessarily the job of the lone individual to defend themselves against malicious use. It's the job of all of humanity.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1942932": [
{
"text": "And right now these are largely two distinguishable ways to burn tokens or diffusion transformer equivalents of tokens flops.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1516778": [
{
"text": "uh, compute budget to make a one-and-a-half-hour long movie?",
"start_ms": 1520108,
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},
{
"text": "What, what's the one, the $1 million budget to make a one and a half... uh, compute budget to make a one-and-a-half-hour long movie?",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5282630": [
{
"text": "But it's, you know, once somebody has fissionable material, it's impossible to stop them from making a bomb,'cause the remainder of the process, you know, the, the thing that implodes it and the container, you can't ever police at that level.",
"start_ms": 5296990,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5381830": [
{
"text": "But in principle, if you have multiple layers stacked on top of each other for defense, you get effectively a hard layer.",
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},
{
"text": "Um, I, I think th- there is, there is this notion of defense in depth, and a- any individual defensive layer is permeable, it's soft. But in principle, if you have multiple layers stacked on top of each other for defense, you get effectively a hard layer.",
"start_ms": 5383970,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2252928": [
{
"text": "So again, it was...",
"start_ms": 2253428,
"lead_ms": 820
},
{
"text": "Well, yeah. So again, it was...",
"start_ms": 2252928,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_351120": [
{
"text": "You know, longevity, the idea of reversing aging has been sort of a, a crackpot idea for most of the last few decades while I've been in the industry, and it's beginning to change.",
"start_ms": 387528,
"lead_ms": 11180
},
{
"text": "So I'm feeling the same thing going on right now. You know, longevity, the idea of reversing aging has been sort of a, a crackpot idea for most of the last few decades while I've been in the industry, and it's beginning to change.",
"start_ms": 384888,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1494168": [
{
"text": "But that's just the start.",
"start_ms": 1493028,
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},
{
"text": "It's 700 million revenue run right now in about one and a half years, to give the idea of kind of how much uptake. But that's just the start.",
"start_ms": 1485928,
"lead_ms": 9490
},
{
"text": "Uh, Hicksfield got from-- It's an ex-Snap, uh, leader from Snapchat. It's 700 million revenue run right now in about one and a half years, to give the idea of kind of how much uptake. But that's just the start.",
"start_ms": 1481468,
"lead_ms": 13950
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3283840": [
{
"text": "And that does scale infinite.",
"start_ms": 3296720,
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{
"text": "So instead, Jensen has brilliantly said, \"Let's create new standalone financial structures that are tied to individual compute clusters that people can individually invest in.\" And that does scale infinite.",
"start_ms": 3285720,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5485370": [
{
"text": "And there's a benefit to that, which is malevolent actors are going to get heard, seen, and caught.",
"start_ms": 5494020,
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{
"text": "Privacy is dead. And there's a benefit to that, which is malevolent actors are going to get heard, seen, and caught.",
"start_ms": 5492890,
"lead_ms": 8040
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{
"text": "That's, that's a point I was gonna make. Privacy is dead. And there's a benefit to that, which is malevolent actors are going to get heard, seen, and caught.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6107086": [
{
"text": "And Meta has, you know, the reach to implement this.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7520834": [
{
"text": "To, to the sheer entrepreneurial, to Alex's point, this is a very difficult thing to do is build these types of, of vehicles.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8161118": [
{
"text": "Uh, well, if you're in plumbing, you're gonna make a killing anyway.",
"start_ms": 8174798,
"lead_ms": 6080
},
{
"text": "How can people in skilled trades like plumbing use AI to their advantage? Uh, well, if you're in plumbing, you're gonna make a killing anyway.",
"start_ms": 8169818,
"lead_ms": 11060
},
{
"text": "Uh, hey, I'll take number seven. How can people in skilled trades like plumbing use AI to their advantage? Uh, well, if you're in plumbing, you're gonna make a killing anyway.",
"start_ms": 8167138,
"lead_ms": 13740
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3497656": [
{
"text": "Um, it, it, it's also, it's in some sense a depreciating asset, requires lots of maintenance and so on.",
"start_ms": 3500586,
"lead_ms": 5650
},
{
"text": "that one can live in other than a house. Um, it, it, it's also, it's in some sense a depreciating asset, requires lots of maintenance and so on.",
"start_ms": 3497696,
"lead_ms": 8540
},
{
"text": "There are lots of other things-... that one can live in other than a house. Um, it, it, it's also, it's in some sense a depreciating asset, requires lots of maintenance and so on.",
"start_ms": 3496716,
"lead_ms": 9520
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3014860": [
{
"text": "So he's not gonna budge on the price point.",
"start_ms": 3018920,
"lead_ms": 1400
},
{
"text": "But again, at the price point. So he's not gonna budge on the price point.",
"start_ms": 3017260,
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},
{
"text": "And- And he has all the GPUs to do that effectively, right? But again, at the price point. So he's not gonna budge on the price point.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3617256": [
{
"text": "'Cause right now the forecast is by 2030, a couple percent of all compute is in space via Elon's rockets, and that's entirely gated by launch weights, uh, mass, mass that he can put into orbit.",
"start_ms": 3642376,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3787924": [
{
"text": "And that is actually improving because back in twenty twenty-two, four years ago, GPT-4 had just finished training. You know?",
"start_ms": 3804044,
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},
{
"text": "That's your marginal cost once you've paid off the initial bulk order of it. And that is actually improving because back in twenty twenty-two, four years ago, GPT-4 had just finished training. You know?",
"start_ms": 3799094,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7616574": [
{
"text": "I mean, this is the question, you know.",
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},
{
"text": "Um, if telling a model it has a mind changes its values, why not tell it to be empathetic? I mean, this is the question, you know.",
"start_ms": 7617714,
"lead_ms": 9660
},
{
"text": "Oh, okay. Um, if telling a model it has a mind changes its values, why not tell it to be empathetic? I mean, this is the question, you know.",
"start_ms": 7616574,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4991660": [
{
"text": "And so the, the only way you can do it is on the other side.",
"start_ms": 4992509,
"lead_ms": 2551
},
{
"text": "Exactly. And so the, the only way you can do it is on the other side.",
"start_ms": 4991720,
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},
{
"text": "the design for these strains. Exactly. And so the, the only way you can do it is on the other side.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_793656": [
{
"text": "Now, look, I, I think that this is the biggest market in the world, as you said, but it's the first time that it's tractable.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2111432": [
{
"text": "You know, like where does the person stop and the character start?",
"start_ms": 2128752,
"lead_ms": 2780
},
{
"text": "80% of me plus 20% of my character can be licensed by the studio.\" You know, like where does the person stop and the character start?",
"start_ms": 2124752,
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}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_546418": [
{
"text": "The numbers today are, for the United States, if you, if you look at it, uh, basically, uh, 100 years ago in 1900, the average life expectancy was 47.",
"start_ms": 548328,
"lead_ms": 12760
},
{
"text": "Yeah Yeah. The numbers today are, for the United States, if you, if you look at it, uh, basically, uh, 100 years ago in 1900, the average life expectancy was 47.",
"start_ms": 546208,
"lead_ms": 14880
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1712288": [
{
"text": "Uh, and so that was that first wave of Hollywood becoming an exponential organization.",
"start_ms": 1725468,
"lead_ms": 4380
},
{
"text": "And we see the beginnings of that in Ho- in Silicon Valley now. Uh, and so that was that first wave of Hollywood becoming an exponential organization.",
"start_ms": 1721068,
"lead_ms": 8780
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2985180": [
{
"text": "So it'll spin up hundreds of different bots.",
"start_ms": 2996400,
"lead_ms": 2500
},
{
"text": "So th-this was a cursor thing where they basically took OpenCore, it gave it, uh, its own computer, and now it's Grok. So it'll spin up hundreds of different bots.",
"start_ms": 2988840,
"lead_ms": 10060
},
{
"text": "Yeah, I think that if you look, the other release was bots. So th-this was a cursor thing where they basically took OpenCore, it gave it, uh, its own computer, and now it's Grok. So it'll spin up hundreds of different bots.",
"start_ms": 2985180,
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}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7359544": [
{
"text": "But you know, also if you try and build a house on Martha's Vineyard or Nantucket, it's twice as expensive as it is on the Cape.",
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}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2292508": [
{
"text": "And it's way too open-ended, and then the, the answer you get back is, uh, I don't know, a hip hop song with no words.",
"start_ms": 2309628,
"lead_ms": 6220
},
{
"text": "What do you wanna do?\" And it's way too open-ended, and then the, the answer you get back is, uh, I don't know, a hip hop song with no words.",
"start_ms": 2307768,
"lead_ms": 8080
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4900140": [
{
"text": "The RNA synthesizers.",
"start_ms": 4945860,
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},
{
"text": "So, and as you said, I think, Imad, very importantly, you know, the issue is not the models, it's the equipment to build, you know, the DNA sequence, uh, synthesizers, right? The RNA synthesizers.",
"start_ms": 4934660,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_403788": [
{
"text": "that's really important here, Peter.",
"start_ms": 410968,
"lead_ms": 1140
},
{
"text": "I, I wanted to point out something that was-... that's really important here, Peter.",
"start_ms": 408928,
"lead_ms": 3180
},
{
"text": "And that's really huge. I, I wanted to point out something that was-... that's really important here, Peter.",
"start_ms": 407508,
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}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_68980": [
{
"text": "Uh, we're gonna be covering nine stories today that span the frontier from longevity, AI infrastructure, synthetic biology, AI filmmaking, urban air mobility, and oh, by the way, Grok 4.6 is crushing it.",
"start_ms": 70840,
"lead_ms": 13180
},
{
"text": "Welcome back to Moonshots, everybody. Uh, we're gonna be covering nine stories today that span the frontier from longevity, AI infrastructure, synthetic biology, AI filmmaking, urban air mobility, and oh, by the way, Grok 4.6 is crushing it.",
"start_ms": 68980,
"lead_ms": 15040
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1045116": [
{
"text": "This is are you feeling functionally younger?",
"start_ms": 1060056,
"lead_ms": 3080
},
{
"text": "This is not a number from a, you know, a, a particular blood test you take, you know, that changes on the back of a form. This is are you feeling functionally younger?",
"start_ms": 1051096,
"lead_ms": 12040
},
{
"text": "If any of these teams win and can reverse your functional age, right? This is not a number from a, you know, a, a particular blood test you take, you know, that changes on the back of a form. This is are you feeling functionally younger?",
"start_ms": 1046876,
"lead_ms": 16260
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1891232": [
{
"text": "And right now these appear to be two separate lines of effort.",
"start_ms": 1931012,
"lead_ms": 3580
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2659144": [
{
"text": "just like Cursor originally took Kimmy K2 and post-trained it with three times the amount of compute that was used to pre-train Kimmy K2 to almost top-level coding performance.",
"start_ms": 2681884,
"lead_ms": 12180
},
{
"text": "that was then post-trained to 4.6, just like Cursor originally took Kimmy K2 and post-trained it with three times the amount of compute that was used to pre-train Kimmy K2 to almost top-level coding performance.",
"start_ms": 2679134,
"lead_ms": 14930
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3169080": [
{
"text": "So Nvidia is positioning itself as the architect for the financing layer, not just the silicon supplier.",
"start_ms": 3169080,
"lead_ms": 6480
},
{
"text": "We've talked about the fact that H100s are probably more valuable today than they were, uh, when they were first bought. So Nvidia is positioning itself as the architect for the financing layer, not just the silicon supplier.",
"start_ms": 3163260,
"lead_ms": 12300
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4071232": [
{
"text": "It had particles floating around in three plus one dimensions.",
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{
"text": "Looking at Dragon Hatchling, uh, a-again, th-this is my hot take, it was just a hot mess. It had particles floating around in three plus one dimensions.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5906226": [
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"text": "And they, they learned, uh, pretty quickly the hard way, don't pay that much attention to human invisible metadata because it immediately becomes a breeding ground for scams and reward hacking and gaming.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6165386": [
{
"text": "For me, this is a, a baller move.",
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{
"text": "Um, the second point that Zuck makes, and we're gonna show this in the video, is the idea of delivering real value and benefits to communities that build our AI data centers. For me, this is a, a baller move.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7922626": [
{
"text": "Uh, maybe two comments.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, maybe two comments.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8299278": [
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"text": "Uh, and I, I do think projecting out a few years in a Star Trek economy, like Peter, you and I wrote about in, in Solve Everything, one could imagine some scarcity maybe with interstellar travel.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7174010": [
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"text": "One, these are way, way, way safer than helicopters because you've got so many multiple rotor redundancies.",
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"text": "I think, I think a couple of things here people should be aware of. One, these are way, way, way safer than helicopters because you've got so many multiple rotor redundancies.",
"start_ms": 7175900,
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{
"text": "Yeah I think-... I think, I think a couple of things here people should be aware of. One, these are way, way, way safer than helicopters because you've got so many multiple rotor redundancies.",
"start_ms": 7174010,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7691894": [
{
"text": "So again- Potentially.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3708544": [
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"text": "And so having a properly functioning private credit market for compute necessarily i-for this to scale, like, I, I think there's no way that Sam's seven trillion dollars of AI data center infra get invested without sophisticated hedging options.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8229258": [
{
"text": "And this is from JohnC8U4M.",
"start_ms": 8240166,
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{
"text": "Uh, so the six asks, \"Does the singularity have a cost given that we live in a world of limited resources?\" And this is from JohnC8U4M.",
"start_ms": 8233977,
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{
"text": "Um, so I, I, I would-- I'll-- I guess I'll just pick six. Uh, so the six asks, \"Does the singularity have a cost given that we live in a world of limited resources?\" And this is from JohnC8U4M.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6722148": [
{
"text": "I'm like- Kind of like, you know, like, I'm an open source guy.",
"start_ms": 6721658,
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"text": "On the personal and super intelligence side, I've been thinking about this recently, and I was like, \"Should idiots have super intelligence?\" I'm like- Kind of like, you know, like, I'm an open source guy.",
"start_ms": 6712878,
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"text": "They have all of that. On the personal and super intelligence side, I've been thinking about this recently, and I was like, \"Should idiots have super intelligence?\" I'm like- Kind of like, you know, like, I'm an open source guy.",
"start_ms": 6711488,
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5188830": [
{
"text": "I'd love to see far more devoted to putting DNA and RNA sequencers everywhere.",
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"text": "And where I'd, I'd love to see the, the agita over what if someone creates the, the next Super bacteriophage, uh, directed. I'd love to see far more devoted to putting DNA and RNA sequencers everywhere.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7242150": [
{
"text": "It's not the EHang.",
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{
"text": "These are not cheap vehicles. It's not the EHang.",
"start_ms": 7238930,
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{
"text": "These do have a pilot on board, and so it's amortization of the capital, right? These are not cheap vehicles. It's not the EHang.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2053272": [
{
"text": "And I think that's a, a...",
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{
"text": "Right? And I think that's a, a...",
"start_ms": 2052952,
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{
"text": "the pr- the producer's gonna go and say, \"No, that's not my Matt Damon, that's John Smith, and he looks like Matt Damon, and we licensed him, and he's in this movie.\" Right? And I think that's a, a...",
"start_ms": 2042612,
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2555388": [
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"text": "And I, I think now that we're in the, the reasoning model era, we're a couple years in at this point, it's those reasoning traces for mid-training and post-training that are just so essential in, in, in terms of catching up to the frontier.",
"start_ms": 2586284,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4693180": [
{
"text": "We saw that with previous attempts to pause AI, AI pause, friend, uh, of the pod, Max, with his, uh, FLI six-month pause.",
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{
"text": "But they have the perverse side effect of actually increasing race conditions. We saw that with previous attempts to pause AI, AI pause, friend, uh, of the pod, Max, with his, uh, FLI six-month pause.",
"start_ms": 4693180,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7495274": [
{
"text": "Brett migrating on-... yeah.",
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{
"text": "And I, I think Brett-... Brett migrating on-... yeah.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5963166": [
{
"text": "Instead, pay more attention to the human visible features because that ultimately, to the extent your users are humans and not machines, that's where the real signal lies.",
"start_ms": 5952946,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3229440": [
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"text": "Well, look, Kush Pavaria was on the pod, and, uh, you know, he's pushing hundreds of millions of revenue in less than a year.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Well, look, Kush Pavaria was on the pod, and, uh, you know, he's pushing hundreds of millions of revenue in less than a year.",
"start_ms": 3233240,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4436269": [
{
"text": "But pause AI is just such a, an absurdly coarse approach to this.",
"start_ms": 4439700,
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{
"text": "So I, I understand his instinct, right? But pause AI is just such a, an absurdly coarse approach to this.",
"start_ms": 4437300,
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{
"text": "Yeah. So I, I understand his instinct, right? But pause AI is just such a, an absurdly coarse approach to this.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8055526": [
{
"text": "So s-similarly, I want to reframe this question by analogy in terms of humans containing other humans. And it is true.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6903258": [
{
"text": "W- the statement needs to be made, and we talked about this.",
"start_ms": 6907468,
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{
"text": "Well, that's what he's doing But, I mean, it's like they're gonna build... W- the statement needs to be made, and we talked about this.",
"start_ms": 6903258,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7310590": [
{
"text": "You know, if you look at helicopters, they're not flying at 10,000 feet.",
"start_ms": 7327050,
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{
"text": "They're gonna be flying probably, uh, in the neighborhood of, uh, 500 feet, uh, typically where, where small airplanes and helicopters operate. You know, if you look at helicopters, they're not flying at 10,000 feet.",
"start_ms": 7316010,
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},
{
"text": "Oh, it's- Uh, they fly in airways. They're gonna be flying probably, uh, in the neighborhood of, uh, 500 feet, uh, typically where, where small airplanes and helicopters operate. You know, if you look at helicopters, they're not flying at 10,000 feet.",
"start_ms": 7310590,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_1770678": [
{
"text": "not quite even sure what genre th-this is.",
"start_ms": 1780968,
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},
{
"text": "Uh-... not quite even sure what genre th-this is.",
"start_ms": 1780608,
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{
"text": "I would characterize Cully Hill Boys as sort of British Bollywood. Uh-... not quite even sure what genre th-this is.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4559080": [
{
"text": "And although it sounds a bit crappy, only thing that can stop a bad AI is a good AI.",
"start_ms": 4574100,
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{
"text": "So we have to, as you said, build the swarms that defend. And although it sounds a bit crappy, only thing that can stop a bad AI is a good AI.",
"start_ms": 4570640,
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{
"text": "It's, it's too late now. So we have to, as you said, build the swarms that defend. And although it sounds a bit crappy, only thing that can stop a bad AI is a good AI.",
"start_ms": 4569580,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8007706": [
{
"text": "I think, a-again, I, I don't want to over-mystify AI.",
"start_ms": 8018366,
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{
"text": "And this is from BuckW3J. I think, a-again, I, I don't want to over-mystify AI.",
"start_ms": 8014766,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, so question one asks, \"If model builders can't contain AI, how can the rest of us defend against malicious use?\" And this is from BuckW3J. I think, a-again, I, I don't want to over-mystify AI.",
"start_ms": 8008226,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8465738": [
{
"text": "This is a, a very, uh...",
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{
"text": "Yeah, I, I would agree with that. This is a, a very, uh...",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4974500": [
{
"text": "I have actually run it on my MacBook. So- I am.",
"start_ms": 4971700,
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{
"text": "trained on a million strains. I have actually run it on my MacBook. So- I am.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4534090": [
{
"text": "on Cyber Gym, whereas Mythos scored 83.2.",
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{
"text": "It scores 83.3 on Cyber Gym, whereas Mythos scored 83.2.",
"start_ms": 4549360,
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{
"text": "Like DeepSeek V4 Pro, um, we just got some initial announcements that have just come out. It scores 83.3 on Cyber Gym, whereas Mythos scored 83.2.",
"start_ms": 4542940,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6078586": [
{
"text": "Uh, about two weeks ago, I was at an event, and a fairly famous Hollywood, uh, executive got up, and he's like, \"It's incredible to watch Hollywood complain about the use of AI.",
"start_ms": 6081976,
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{
"text": "Okay. Uh, about two weeks ago, I was at an event, and a fairly famous Hollywood, uh, executive got up, and he's like, \"It's incredible to watch Hollywood complain about the use of AI.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6554322": [
{
"text": "So giving you these open models, uh, is great.",
"start_ms": 6587782,
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{
"text": "Um, the, the-- Facebook has been about as ruthless as a company could be in constantly saying, \"We will protect your privacy,\" and then doing the exact opposite for year after year after year after year. So giving you these open models, uh, is great.",
"start_ms": 6573802,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8384897": [
{
"text": "There's this gap Well, you know, if you-- if you take Uber, for example, you went back twenty years ago, only very wealthy people could afford a private driver, right?",
"start_ms": 8380157,
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},
{
"text": "But the question is how, how quickly can you get to that? There's this gap Well, you know, if you-- if you take Uber, for example, you went back twenty years ago, only very wealthy people could afford a private driver, right?",
"start_ms": 8376358,
"lead_ms": 16550
},
{
"text": "Yes, it's deflation. But the question is how, how quickly can you get to that? There's this gap Well, you know, if you-- if you take Uber, for example, you went back twenty years ago, only very wealthy people could afford a private driver, right?",
"start_ms": 8375448,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4641300": [
{
"text": "It's a foot gun or, or shooting ourselves in the, the head even, quite literally, to, to somehow to try to prevent the, the next super virus when we're more than capable as a species of producing super viruses without intelligence.",
"start_ms": 4645120,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3466146": [
{
"text": "But I, I'm not as concerned that this will end up being another mortgage-backed securities fiasco for a few reasons.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2209302": [
{
"text": "So that was the first model that could do it at high definition.",
"start_ms": 2215968,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, so that's what the LTX model is right now. So that was the first model that could do it at high definition.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3339756": [
{
"text": "And then somebody has a massive breakthrough, like in our previous story, and a new architecture emerges.",
"start_ms": 3334016,
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},
{
"text": "'Cause imagine you securitize like 10 years of GPU cash flows, right? And then somebody has a massive breakthrough, like in our previous story, and a new architecture emerges.",
"start_ms": 3329016,
"lead_ms": 10740
},
{
"text": "There.'Cause imagine you securitize like 10 years of GPU cash flows, right? And then somebody has a massive breakthrough, like in our previous story, and a new architecture emerges.",
"start_ms": 3328416,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5098730": [
{
"text": "what's your hot take on this one, pal?",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2769964": [
{
"text": "And that, uh, that was gonna be, yeah, like you said, that's a 10 trillion parameter model.",
"start_ms": 2783444,
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},
{
"text": "Actually curious, Emad, if-- or Alex, if you have any insights on the, uh, uh, Grok 5 was supposed to be out in May, I think it was, uh, and it's now August. And that, uh, that was gonna be, yeah, like you said, that's a 10 trillion parameter model.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6638542": [
{
"text": "I think Elon ran into the same thing,'cause he throws out Bad Rudy.",
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},
{
"text": "Nudify apps. I think Elon ran into the same thing,'cause he throws out Bad Rudy.",
"start_ms": 6639592,
"lead_ms": 7186
},
{
"text": "Nudify. Nudify apps. I think Elon ran into the same thing,'cause he throws out Bad Rudy.",
"start_ms": 6638542,
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}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2474608": [
{
"text": "The model cadence is crazy, right?",
"start_ms": 2472268,
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},
{
"text": "It's available today in Cursor and Grok Build. The model cadence is crazy, right?",
"start_ms": 2468288,
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},
{
"text": "It self-tests and verifies its own work before moving on. It's available today in Cursor and Grok Build. The model cadence is crazy, right?",
"start_ms": 2464488,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7285950": [
{
"text": "I mean, exactly what Salim- Well- Well, I mean, helicopters are crazy dangerous.",
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, I think-- You know, I, I think it'll be a kind of a thrilling, scary ride for a lot of people who are afraid of heights, but much safer than driving is my, my guess. I mean, exactly what Salim- Well- Well, I mean, helicopters are crazy dangerous.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2813064": [
{
"text": "But did he do it? Yeah.",
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{
"text": "Like, he paid $10 billion for the data. But did he do it? Yeah.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2742104": [
{
"text": "but what if you have the best chips?",
"start_ms": 2737374,
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{
"text": "As Alex said, like, you can't get beyond frontier with this stuff-... but what if you have the best chips?",
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},
{
"text": "And that's gonna be the real test. As Alex said, like, you can't get beyond frontier with this stuff-... but what if you have the best chips?",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7988415": [
{
"text": "likely things to disrupt traditional silicon is photonic computing, which Alex and I talk about constantly.",
"start_ms": 7988426,
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{
"text": "Yeah, actually one of the most-... likely things to disrupt traditional silicon is photonic computing, which Alex and I talk about constantly.",
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}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_882605": [
{
"text": "So now, now the business model becomes how do you maintain, uh, decent function, bodily function before the dece- disease appears, and it'll completely change healthcare economics.",
"start_ms": 883636,
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},
{
"text": "look at that number, right? So now, now the business model becomes how do you maintain, uh, decent function, bodily function before the dece- disease appears, and it'll completely change healthcare economics.",
"start_ms": 882636,
"lead_ms": 11280
},
{
"text": "Just look-... look at that number, right? So now, now the business model becomes how do you maintain, uh, decent function, bodily function before the dece- disease appears, and it'll completely change healthcare economics.",
"start_ms": 881136,
"lead_ms": 12780
}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8367018": [
{
"text": "It, it's the-- it's inflation or deflation, right?",
"start_ms": 8370538,
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},
{
"text": "We have a measure for that. It, it's the-- it's inflation or deflation, right?",
"start_ms": 8369157,
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},
{
"text": "but we, we have, we have a-- apologies. We have a measure for that. It, it's the-- it's inflation or deflation, right?",
"start_ms": 8367038,
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}
],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8272518": [
{
"text": "And I just don't buy the premise that for, call it twenty twenty-six, look at the wealthiest people in the world and how they live in, in this year.",
"start_ms": 8266538,
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},
{
"text": "notions of energy scarcity, material scarcity, labor scarcity. And I just don't buy the premise that for, call it twenty twenty-six, look at the wealthiest people in the world and how they live in, in this year.",
"start_ms": 8261477,
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_640108": [
{
"text": "I, I'll, I'll answer that. I'll answer that.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2171512": [
{
"text": "But you can see actually it's exploring different parts.",
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"text": "And then you can tell it to expand and collapse it, and you get these really weird images sometimes. But you can see actually it's exploring different parts.",
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"text": "'cause it's pulling in from this visual cortex kind of thing. And then you can tell it to expand and collapse it, and you get these really weird images sometimes. But you can see actually it's exploring different parts.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7964426": [
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"text": "When it turns out that some manufacturing process is either obsoleted or going too slow, he has the, the amazing superpower of pivoting, including pivoting at the building level.",
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"text": "I'm reminded of when Elon was setting up tents in East Bay for Tesla. When it turns out that some manufacturing process is either obsoleted or going too slow, he has the, the amazing superpower of pivoting, including pivoting at the building level.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7876706": [
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"text": "uh, which is a safer bet than GPUs, uh,'cause it, much more likely the GPUs will be displaced sooner than the HBM memory.",
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{
"text": "But, uh, he's gonna turn the Terafab toward HBM memory, which is hugely constrained and is holding back all of intelligence now-... uh, which is a safer bet than GPUs, uh,'cause it, much more likely the GPUs will be displaced sooner than the HBM memory.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7471494": [
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"text": "And Joby and Archer both went public out of the gate. Um, Beta has not.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. And Joby and Archer both went public out of the gate. Um, Beta has not.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2859384": [
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"text": "Um, but the problem you run into is trying to get 100,000 GPUs to do anything constructively together, and that, that's something that, you know, the Chinese and any small lab just can't...",
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"text": "I, I do think the recent launch of Opus 5 is a step in the right direction to seeing a convergence between, call it frontier models on the one hand and video gen or world models on the other, because it...",
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"text": "M- m- maybe just a closing thought on this one, Peter. I, I do think the recent launch of Opus 5 is a step in the right direction to seeing a convergence between, call it frontier models on the one hand and video gen or world models on the other, because it...",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7734706": [
{
"text": "And that's from Mr.",
"start_ms": 7749586,
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{
"text": "Uh, is it even possible for any lab to reach escape velocity from future competition, or will everyone keep running on the same foundation? And that's from Mr.",
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{
"text": "Uh, I will take number, uh, four. Uh, is it even possible for any lab to reach escape velocity from future competition, or will everyone keep running on the same foundation? And that's from Mr.",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_6338382": [
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"text": "I, I think, uh, so broadly, uh, bravo to Zuck for renewing the faith for American open-weight, open-source models.",
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"text": "We've caught up since. I, I think, uh, so broadly, uh, bravo to Zuck for renewing the faith for American open-weight, open-source models.",
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"text": "So, uh, at, at Harvard, Zuck's undergrad advisor before he dropped out was my postdoctoral advisor. We've caught up since. I, I think, uh, so broadly, uh, bravo to Zuck for renewing the faith for American open-weight, open-source models.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_8348397": [
{
"text": "And so there's a, there's an interesting benchmark you could create, which is what's the lifestyle of the richest person today, and then exponential technologies bring that same lifestyle how, how quickly over time, right?",
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],
"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_7556854": [
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"text": "Elon's gonna announce his flying car within 6 to 12 months.",
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{
"text": "I, I have a prediction. Elon's gonna announce his flying car within 6 to 12 months.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2191052": [
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"text": "interactive movies, right?",
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{
"text": "I'm excited by-... interactive movies, right?",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_325540": [
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"text": "I, I still think m- just as with AGI, uh, either in our rear view mirror, as I think, or s-some might say it's either here or almost here, I, I do still expect that healthspan and longevity escape velocity, it's gonna be spiky.",
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"text": "It's gonna be spiky, I think. I, I still think m- just as with AGI, uh, either in our rear view mirror, as I think, or s-some might say it's either here or almost here, I, I do still expect that healthspan and longevity escape velocity, it's gonna be spiky.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_260680": [
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"text": "I mean, uh, you know, I think there's, there's the, uh, XPRIZE was such a huge inspiration when I was writing the EXO book because you're reaching outside i, in...",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_4421972": [
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"text": "Uh, a lot of fear-mongering here.",
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"text": "There is a reason why the heads, the head of the CIA says that AI models are,\" quote, \"akin to digital nuclear weapons,\" and quote, \"almost like a doomsday device.\" Uh, a lot of fear-mongering here.",
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{
"text": "AI capabilities have reached a critical threshold. There is a reason why the heads, the head of the CIA says that AI models are,\" quote, \"akin to digital nuclear weapons,\" and quote, \"almost like a doomsday device.\" Uh, a lot of fear-mongering here.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5534830": [
{
"text": "Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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"text": "I'm here today with Dr. Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_5235270": [
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"text": "But imagine if you have these sequencers in the air vents in every airport, every bus station, every train station.",
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"text": "At 500, 600 miles an hour. But imagine if you have these sequencers in the air vents in every airport, every bus station, every train station.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_526628": [
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"text": "If you could add 30...",
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"text": "At the end of the day, longevity's gonna be the biggest market, right? If you could add 30...",
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"text": "Uh, and I'm starting to see, you know, capital flowing in, uh, aggressively. At the end of the day, longevity's gonna be the biggest market, right? If you could add 30...",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2713804": [
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"text": "But the question is, is it gonna be useful?",
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"text": "So it's gonna be whirring away, and just through scale and just through the quality of the post-training data, it should achieve the frontier. But the question is, is it gonna be useful?",
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"text": "But 5 is coming in at six and then 10 trillion parameters. So it's gonna be whirring away, and just through scale and just through the quality of the post-training data, it should achieve the frontier. But the question is, is it gonna be useful?",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_2038652": [
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"text": "But there are so many lookalikes out there.",
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{
"text": "And I think not. But there are so many lookalikes out there.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, one of my hot takes on this is, you know, are we gonna see the primary actors out there, the Matt Damons or the, uh, you know, Leonardo DiCaprios licensing their likeness? And I think not. But there are so many lookalikes out there.",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_973886": [
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"text": "I, I've gone even-...",
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"bernie_demands_the_labs_stop_wall_street_turns_gpus_into_bon_3552296": [
{
"text": "But again, I would say not quite directly comparable.",
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{
"text": "One can maybe finger to the wind point at some sort of US versus China race as perhaps a policy pressure point to lubricate the, the private capital markets here. But again, I would say not quite directly comparable.",
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{
"text": "a direct analog of that here for compute. One can maybe finger to the wind point at some sort of US versus China race as perhaps a policy pressure point to lubricate the, the private capital markets here. But again, I would say not quite directly comparable.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_200230": [
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"text": "Uh, this is a conversation, guys, uh, I've been waiting for for a long time to really go deep and understand what's going on, and Alvin, you're gonna bring a unique perspective on the US and the China AI race.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4898150": [
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"text": "You know, AI is having an outsized impact on every aspect of our lives, how we teach our kids, how we run our companies.",
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{
"text": "Welcome to the health section of Moonshots, brought to you by Fountain Life. You know, AI is having an outsized impact on every aspect of our lives, how we teach our kids, how we run our companies.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_15360": [
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"text": "If and when we do, the concept of nations will probably become a lot less important than, than they are today.",
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"text": "At some point, we will get to a super intelligence type of a scenario. If and when we do, the concept of nations will probably become a lot less important than, than they are today.",
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{
"text": "Having a race condition forces people to make irrational decisions. At some point, we will get to a super intelligence type of a scenario. If and when we do, the concept of nations will probably become a lot less important than, than they are today.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4168064": [
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"text": "Take us back to the World AI, uh, Cooperation Organization, uh, event, um, and the 2026 World AI Conference.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_8071038": [
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"text": "So, so a- actually you make a really good point, and I think they, they did the hard thing, right?",
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{
"text": "Yeah. So, so a- actually you make a really good point, and I think they, they did the hard thing, right?",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_732404": [
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"text": "Chinese open weight models, uh, climbed from two percent to sixty-one percent of open router traffic in the last two years.",
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"text": "Um, and Alvin, uh, in your essay, Misdiagnosing the US-China AI race, uh, you lay out a staggering shift, right? Chinese open weight models, uh, climbed from two percent to sixty-one percent of open router traffic in the last two years.",
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"text": "Um, uh, with a hundred and eighty thousand derivative models, and one of the things, again, we talk about is, you know, when you have an open weight model, it's very easy to fork it and develop it and retrain it yourself.",
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"text": "Yeah, there we go. Um, uh, with a hundred and eighty thousand derivative models, and one of the things, again, we talk about is, you know, when you have an open weight model, it's very easy to fork it and develop it and retrain it yourself.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5441886": [
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"text": "So you d- you're testing the wrong thing.",
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{
"text": "It is capable of improving itself. So you d- you're testing the wrong thing.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1597648": [
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"text": "Throw all of these regulatory speed bumps, the, uh, we've talked about it on the pod in the past, the w- you, you alluded to re-education camps.",
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"text": "And, and I, I think the, the, the, the sentiment at the, at the, uh, WAC was that, hey, uh, you know, A- AI has...",
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"text": "So I mean, you know, I, I'm, I'm part of a large team of other folks that are, that are contributing to that. And, and I, I think the, the, the, the sentiment at the, at the, uh, WAC was that, hey, uh, you know, A- AI has...",
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"text": "Yeah, yeah. So I mean, you know, I, I'm, I'm part of a large team of other folks that are, that are contributing to that. And, and I, I think the, the, the, the sentiment at the, at the, uh, WAC was that, hey, uh, you know, A- AI has...",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_939344": [
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"text": "Or it's not like the, it's not like the space race, right?",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2096507": [
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"text": "And he expected teamwork or a business plan.",
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"text": "And he asked them, \"What's the most important thing to entrepreneurial success?\" And he expected teamwork or a business plan.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6312564": [
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"text": "of saying, \"We're not gonna release.",
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"text": "And- In other words, if there was a US-China AI control policy-... of saying, \"We're not gonna release.",
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"text": "On a single-term prisoner's dilemma, uh, the optimal thing is to, to say, \"Hey, the other guy did it, and I'm gonna snitch on him,\" right? And- In other words, if there was a US-China AI control policy-... of saying, \"We're not gonna release.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3125884": [
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"text": "So, so and, and I think that's the key to to realize.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. So, so and, and I think that's the key to to realize.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5837190": [
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"text": "80% is, the populace is against AI.",
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{
"text": "In the US-... 80% is, the populace is against AI.",
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"text": "We've talked about the notion that in China it's 80% of the populace is pro-AI. In the US-... 80% is, the populace is against AI.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3209944": [
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"text": "I to-totally agree, by the way, Alvin.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6868322": [
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"text": "In fact, the AI sector alone is worth more than the GDP of America today. Right?",
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"text": "Right now we are at 240% of the GDP is the US stock market value, right? In fact, the AI sector alone is worth more than the GDP of America today. Right?",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3297064": [
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"text": "So, so they, they are spending a ton more on energy generation.",
"start_ms": 3297344,
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{
"text": "No. So, so they, they are spending a ton more on energy generation.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2991474": [
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"text": "So they have the highest per capita, uh, payroll of any lab in the world.",
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"text": "And they just finally got a model out that is somewhat competitive in the last, you know, uh, week or two, right? So they have the highest per capita, uh, payroll of any lab in the world.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_801184": [
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"text": "Japanese, uh, Sakana released, uh, Fugu Ultra.",
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"text": "Uh, Brazil's Rio built on Qwen. Japanese, uh, Sakana released, uh, Fugu Ultra.",
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"text": "debacle. Uh, Brazil's Rio built on Qwen. Japanese, uh, Sakana released, uh, Fugu Ultra.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7466698": [
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"text": "And, and the, the, the TSMC guy goes, \"Hey, I heard that you guys are gonna blow up our data centers if China attacks.",
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"text": "And essentially what they taught us in the last third of the class is, look, the...",
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"text": "Um, but when I was at MIT, there was a class called Just Wars, Total Wars, Nuclear Wars, and I was like, \"I gotta take that class and see what it's all about.\" And essentially what they taught us in the last third of the class is, look, the...",
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"text": "But, uh, the CEO of the company was very, uh, open source-minded, and he, he thought that, \"Hey, open sourcing is, is, is something that I should do because this is a great technology.",
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{
"text": "Nobody told them to, to, to open source. But, uh, the CEO of the company was very, uh, open source-minded, and he, he thought that, \"Hey, open sourcing is, is, is something that I should do because this is a great technology.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_969004": [
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"text": "From my perspective, there's an obvious endgame.",
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"text": "I'd, I'd love to understand how you think about this. From my perspective, there's an obvious endgame.",
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"text": "M- maybe just to pull on the, the thesis, Alvin, I think that's latent that there isn't an endgame. I'd, I'd love to understand how you think about this. From my perspective, there's an obvious endgame.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5002650": [
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"text": "Then in China, they're saying, \"Look, you know, it's 10 to 20 years away.",
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{
"text": "So that's his opinion. Then in China, they're saying, \"Look, you know, it's 10 to 20 years away.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6110834": [
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"text": "There's around 42% underemployment, so for, for college grads.",
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{
"text": "But it's, it's actually worse than that. There's around 42% underemployment, so for, for college grads.",
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{
"text": "So, you know, this is why the, the, the youth feels, uh, very, um, uh, disenfranchised is because they're not, you know, getting jobs. But it's, it's actually worse than that. There's around 42% underemployment, so for, for college grads.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_247200": [
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"text": "Uh, he's had a chance to meet with leadership across all of the Chinese AI labs, discuss AI governance issues with the senior Chinese regulators and policymakers.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3628834": [
{
"text": "But the training is just a job, and it can move to a server in Hong Kong or to Taiwan or to Europe-... instantaneously.",
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{
"text": "You can't, you can't just port it to another server overnight. But the training is just a job, and it can move to a server in Hong Kong or to Taiwan or to Europe-... instantaneously.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5055490": [
{
"text": "yeah, but, but I think the, the, the thing that he said was not there will be one company.",
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{
"text": "Well-... yeah, but, but I think the, the, the thing that he said was not there will be one company.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4872670": [
{
"text": "I, I, I've, I've talked to, to partners at, at consulting firms, at, at accounting firms, at, at lawyers, and they are all looking and saying, \"Hey, we actually don't need these junior guys anymore.",
"start_ms": 4881110,
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{
"text": "Right? I, I, I've, I've talked to, to partners at, at consulting firms, at, at accounting firms, at, at lawyers, and they are all looking and saying, \"Hey, we actually don't need these junior guys anymore.",
"start_ms": 4880830,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6086254": [
{
"text": "So I, I, I would love m- maybe Alvin if, if we could just peel back the, the self-curated propaganda from the, the CCP's sort of self-styling of how it wants to be seen.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_8204638": [
{
"text": "Sooner or later, one country or the other is gonna have a, a ability to destroy the other country with no retribution whatsoever.",
"start_ms": 8212237,
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},
{
"text": "And so as nuclear weapons get more and more efficient, inevitably the prisoner's dilemma gets more acute. Sooner or later, one country or the other is gonna have a, a ability to destroy the other country with no retribution whatsoever.",
"start_ms": 8204878,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4080964": [
{
"text": "And these things fall apart, and you have to maintain them.",
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},
{
"text": "And when it falls, you know, bad things happen, right? And these things fall apart, and you have to maintain them.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4260294": [
{
"text": "Um, this is a little bit different than the, the American AI Action Plan, right?",
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{
"text": "So there's a specific goal, and it's all about diffusion and deployment into, into industry and society. Um, this is a little bit different than the, the American AI Action Plan, right?",
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},
{
"text": "And within the next 10 years, we wanna have 90-plus percent, right? So there's a specific goal, and it's all about diffusion and deployment into, into industry and society. Um, this is a little bit different than the, the American AI Action Plan, right?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2549024": [
{
"text": "Um, so I, you know, it, it-- I, I don't really see them, uh, right now seeing, um, AI as a way to create, um, political, um, domination, right?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7377238": [
{
"text": "D- does this end, in, in, in your, in your geopolitical analysis, does this end with China a- attempting during this geopolitical and demographic window to invade Taiwan and seize TSMC to gain l- leaning, leading foundry node capacity?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1181736": [
{
"text": "I mean, I, I think the whole, um, evolution of this is going to take probably on the order of decades, maybe, you know, by the end of this, you know, century.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1912998": [
{
"text": "And when I interviewed Sam at MIT back in 2020, remember that?",
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{
"text": "So you've got Elon Musk, Demis Hassabis, Sam Altman all saying, \"God, I wish this would slow down.\" And when I interviewed Sam at MIT back in 2020, remember that?",
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{
"text": "You know, in, in the, in the US, it's really interesting when you meet the actual players. So you've got Elon Musk, Demis Hassabis, Sam Altman all saying, \"God, I wish this would slow down.\" And when I interviewed Sam at MIT back in 2020, remember that?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4822150": [
{
"text": "Uh, in fact, with automation that's coming, uh, that number will go less and less, just like what happened with farming.",
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},
{
"text": "Right? Uh, in fact, with automation that's coming, uh, that number will go less and less, just like what happened with farming.",
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{
"text": "That's not what I'm saying. Right? Uh, in fact, with automation that's coming, uh, that number will go less and less, just like what happened with farming.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6236154": [
{
"text": "Uh, I think it's very important.",
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},
{
"text": "conversations. Uh, I think it's very important.",
"start_ms": 6244474,
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{
"text": "I want to take us back, um, you know, for the rest of our, our time here together to the upcoming U.S.-China conversations. Uh, I think it's very important.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1687088": [
{
"text": "And, and, and there are actually multiple safety institutes and, and a, a safety, a AI safety contingent that is in China telling these stories to the, to the regulators, and they hear it.",
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{
"text": "They, they understand this stuff. And, and, and there are actually multiple safety institutes and, and a, a safety, a AI safety contingent that is in China telling these stories to the, to the regulators, and they hear it.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6528054": [
{
"text": "the wrong game right now. Yep. Yeah.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5487236": [
{
"text": "So it, it neutered the, the, the, the Mythos system.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2152948": [
{
"text": "Is the government saying, \"Get as many open models as good as they are out there\"?",
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{
"text": "Again, I think it's very important to understand this. Is the government saying, \"Get as many open models as good as they are out there\"?",
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{
"text": "So having said that, and we started this conversation on open models. Again, I think it's very important to understand this. Is the government saying, \"Get as many open models as good as they are out there\"?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1546988": [
{
"text": "So what, what I think I hear you saying is the, the Chinese Communist Party leadership has not yet perhaps woken up, uh, uh, assuming you believe the premise that we're, uh, in the middle of a singularity and that recursive self-improvement is already here.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5562850": [
{
"text": "And, and, and it was, it was upgraded.",
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},
{
"text": "So, I mean... And, and, and it was, it was upgraded.",
"start_ms": 5611550,
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},
{
"text": "right? So, I mean... And, and, and it was, it was upgraded.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6800491": [
{
"text": "And, and see, the...",
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},
{
"text": "We're, we're actually right now acting like USSR. And, and see, the...",
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},
{
"text": "Well, I, I mean, I, I, I hope it doesn't happen, but I, I think we are, we are pushing ourselves in that way. We're, we're actually right now acting like USSR. And, and see, the...",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1956748": [
{
"text": "So, so first I, I want to, um, maybe, um, demystify something around, around this idea that people think that China has a CCP.",
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{
"text": "Okay. So, so first I, I want to, um, maybe, um, demystify something around, around this idea that people think that China has a CCP.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2224694": [
{
"text": "And that, that's kind of goes to what Dave's talking about, right?",
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{
"text": "Uh, uh, and, um, and now, you know, at the last WAICO or the, uh, the, the WAIC announcement, uh, Xi Jinping finally said, \"Hey, uh, we think open source is a good strategy.\" And that, that's kind of goes to what Dave's talking about, right?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6378134": [
{
"text": "And if I get the stag, we'll both feed our families for a month, right?",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, if I go for the rabbits, uh, by myself, I can get a couple rabbits, feed my, feed my family for a week or a, a couple days. And if I get the stag, we'll both feed our families for a month, right?",
"start_ms": 6416634,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7928878": [
{
"text": "And now they've essentially flattened out at the kind of ARR in the $70 billion range.",
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{
"text": "You know, for-- earlier this year, they were growing like, you know, 10X over just, you know, a few months, right? And now they've essentially flattened out at the kind of ARR in the $70 billion range.",
"start_ms": 7928878,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3849286": [
{
"text": "In fact, there was rumors now that was funny that now Chi- uh, uh, US robotics companies are now sneaking to, to China, buying these, uh, components, putting them into suitcases, and then bringing them back. Right?",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, if we put an embargo on them... In fact, there was rumors now that was funny that now Chi- uh, uh, US robotics companies are now sneaking to, to China, buying these, uh, components, putting them into suitcases, and then bringing them back. Right?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6435774": [
{
"text": "Um, and when you do that alone, what, what, uh, what that creates is the worst situation in which is the-- if America doesn't get there, or if it gets there and cannot control it and it runs away and it's not safe, then it gets zero.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7871058": [
{
"text": "And, uh, what I, what I foresee is that we will soon find that, um, these AI companies, uh, they're, you know, once, once they go public or if they go public, um, their financial will, will become much more clear.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5620350": [
{
"text": "In, in, in 80, 90% of the cases, it was all organizational issues of why, uh, what slowed it down, right?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7134744": [
{
"text": "And that, that to the Chinese was chaotic and very unprofessional.",
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},
{
"text": "Um, and then, uh, you know, for example, for, for the, uh, the, the May visit, uh, there was really no discussion on any of this until the day before, uh, you know, between US and China. And that, that to the Chinese was chaotic and very unprofessional.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2266124": [
{
"text": "I, I, I, I don't know what would have happened.",
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},
{
"text": "Um, but you're right. I, I, I, I don't know what would have happened.",
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},
{
"text": "So, so both, both models exist. Um, but you're right. I, I, I, I don't know what would have happened.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3536684": [
{
"text": "You know, we're two or three generations behind.",
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{
"text": "And, you know, uh, I know a few of the CEOs of, of these, of these, uh, Chinese GPU companies, and they were saying, \"Nobody wanted to buy our stuff. You know, we're two or three generations behind.",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, you know, could we get you customers?\" And, you know, uh, I know a few of the CEOs of, of these, of these, uh, Chinese GPU companies, and they were saying, \"Nobody wanted to buy our stuff. You know, we're two or three generations behind.",
"start_ms": 3539524,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5195546": [
{
"text": "But what's-- what now needs to happen is how do we...",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3476754": [
{
"text": "So, um, so the export controls, yes, uh, it, it has slowed down China.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_8426566": [
{
"text": "Uh, but on, with, uh, with AI data centers, with, uh, AI technology.",
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},
{
"text": "We, we need to be thinking more about that type of thing today. Uh, but on, with, uh, with AI data centers, with, uh, AI technology.",
"start_ms": 8437766,
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},
{
"text": "Um, and it created, uh, loyalty and, and, and, uh, you know, allies for, for, uh, eight decades, right? We, we need to be thinking more about that type of thing today. Uh, but on, with, uh, with AI data centers, with, uh, AI technology.",
"start_ms": 8431366,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7770398": [
{
"text": "Because we've, we've been very involved in, uh, in the, the kind of Chinese political or the Taiwanese political sphere for a long time.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2367664": [
{
"text": "And, and that's a great way to, to, to leverage the, the global community of millions of, of AI researchers.",
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},
{
"text": "Essentially, the rest of the world helps you, uh, modify and improve your, your models, right? And, and that's a great way to, to, to leverage the, the global community of millions of, of AI researchers.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3395964": [
{
"text": "Um, you know, right now they, they don't have enough chips.",
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{
"text": "And, and I think you're, you're right. Um, you know, right now they, they don't have enough chips.",
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},
{
"text": "And, and I think in the long run, that's actually where the, the, the constraint will be. And, and I think you're, you're right. Um, you know, right now they, they don't have enough chips.",
"start_ms": 3397144,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1634848": [
{
"text": "So, so this is something that I think, um, you know, the industry should be looking at in terms of managing to actually slow it down, right?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2067688": [
{
"text": "I, I had gone to, to different parts of China.",
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, I think that's one of the biggest cha- You know, what... I, I had gone to, to different parts of China.",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1342496": [
{
"text": "So I think there, there is a, a common shared, uh, interest.",
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},
{
"text": "I... So I think there, there is a, a common shared, uh, interest.",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2500954": [
{
"text": "And these two different arms may be in competition with each other.",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4441324": [
{
"text": "Well, let me, let me finish.",
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},
{
"text": "Um, I, I think this is, this is one of the, I think, biggest misunderstandings that America has that they, they... Well, let me, let me finish.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5138250": [
{
"text": "And then, and then you had essentially kind of one to 100 billion parameter cyber models that was as dangerous or more dangerous than the, the, the leading, um-...",
"start_ms": 5140230,
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},
{
"text": "powerful agents, right? And then, and then you had essentially kind of one to 100 billion parameter cyber models that was as dangerous or more dangerous than the, the, the leading, um-...",
"start_ms": 5138940,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7298134": [
{
"text": "So, so we need to find that, that, that shared risk requires shared response.",
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},
{
"text": "When you start putting a thousand agents all trying to attack a network, at some point, they're gonna find the hole, you know? So, so we need to find that, that, that shared risk requires shared response.",
"start_ms": 7321354,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6570434": [
{
"text": "Because then, then you're competing, uh, on a even- Yeah.",
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},
{
"text": "What I would do is actually, uh, create high quality open source, right? Because then, then you're competing, uh, on a even- Yeah.",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4570894": [
{
"text": "And I think the forecast is it's gonna go to 40 or 45% over the next 5 or 10 years. So- Yeah.",
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},
{
"text": "So, so, uh... And I think the forecast is it's gonna go to 40 or 45% over the next 5 or 10 years. So- Yeah.",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1121256": [
{
"text": "You know, we're building 10 times more data centers than China is, you know.",
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},
{
"text": "But, um, right now, I don't think in the next, you know, two or three or five years, which is what we're really racing against, we're r- trying to build... You know, we're building 10 times more data centers than China is, you know.",
"start_ms": 1152356,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2319164": [
{
"text": "It's forced them to have to innovate with low resources, and that, um, essentially pushed DeepSeek and all these other companies to, to get more innovative.",
"start_ms": 2325014,
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},
{
"text": "And, and what that's done is that it's, it's forced them not to have the latest and greatest equipment. It's forced them to have to innovate with low resources, and that, um, essentially pushed DeepSeek and all these other companies to, to get more innovative.",
"start_ms": 2319164,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2396684": [
{
"text": "They, they become global news.",
"start_ms": 2426884,
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},
{
"text": "Then something happens that flips his opinion. They, they become global news.",
"start_ms": 2423724,
"lead_ms": 5320
},
{
"text": "Slap, slap your hand. Then something happens that flips his opinion. They, they become global news.",
"start_ms": 2421464,
"lead_ms": 7580
}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_8479086": [
{
"text": "And we also hopefully will then have a place to, to, uh, for the, the open source models that we create.",
"start_ms": 8485146,
"lead_ms": 6660
},
{
"text": "You know, there's a lot of good things that, that can be had. And we also hopefully will then have a place to, to, uh, for the, the open source models that we create.",
"start_ms": 8482746,
"lead_ms": 9060
},
{
"text": "We're gonna need to... You know, there's a lot of good things that, that can be had. And we also hopefully will then have a place to, to, uh, for the, the open source models that we create.",
"start_ms": 8482106,
"lead_ms": 9700
}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_882484": [
{
"text": "Um, and there, there is no clear finish line, right?",
"start_ms": 915324,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5858410": [
{
"text": "Um, you know, over the last 40 years, uh, people have seen their lives get better and better in China, right?",
"start_ms": 5859810,
"lead_ms": 6100
},
{
"text": "So, so here it is. Um, you know, over the last 40 years, uh, people have seen their lives get better and better in China, right?",
"start_ms": 5858410,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6326524": [
{
"text": "So essentially right now, the expectation that the other side's gonna defect, so I'm gonna defect first so that I, I get hurt less, right?",
"start_ms": 6328254,
"lead_ms": 7000
},
{
"text": "So that, that would be de- defecting. So essentially right now, the expectation that the other side's gonna defect, so I'm gonna defect first so that I, I get hurt less, right?",
"start_ms": 6326534,
"lead_ms": 8720
},
{
"text": "Yeah. So that, that would be de- defecting. So essentially right now, the expectation that the other side's gonna defect, so I'm gonna defect first so that I, I get hurt less, right?",
"start_ms": 6326524,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3343424": [
{
"text": "Um, and, and they're able to, to, to deliver, um, uh, compute at a fraction of the cost of the US,'cause their, their energy cost is around two to three cents per kilowatt hour, right?",
"start_ms": 3377344,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1024763": [
{
"text": "But if, if we-- if and when we do, the concept of nations will probably become a lot less important than, than they are today, right?",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3591363": [
{
"text": "I mean, we knew the chip embargo was, was misguided, and it's gonna be one of many government misguided things in the next couple of years.",
"start_ms": 3593524,
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},
{
"text": "Well, what a back-to-back double whammy that is, though. I mean, we knew the chip embargo was, was misguided, and it's gonna be one of many government misguided things in the next couple of years.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4763694": [
{
"text": "China is around 40%.",
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},
{
"text": "And white collar workers, as you guys all know, is the, the first to be displaced by, by AGI when it, when it arrives. China is around 40%.",
"start_ms": 4779454,
"lead_ms": 7560
},
{
"text": "Um, you know, the, the, the US workforce right now is around 70%, uh, is white collar workers, right? And white collar workers, as you guys all know, is the, the first to be displaced by, by AGI when it, when it arrives. China is around 40%.",
"start_ms": 4772934,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1890088": [
{
"text": "You know, in, in the, in the US, it's really interesting when you meet the actual players.",
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{
"text": "Like, let's understand who the CCP is. You know, in, in the, in the US, it's really interesting when you meet the actual players.",
"start_ms": 1898188,
"lead_ms": 6590
},
{
"text": "But before we can do that, it... Like, let's understand who the CCP is. You know, in, in the, in the US, it's really interesting when you meet the actual players.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_8111238": [
{
"text": "So, um, so, so I, I, I, I, I don't think we wanna, um, over, um, I guess, uh, parallel these two things, but I, I think what we can learn is that when the crisis happens, you need to be willing to take some near-term pain, and they did, right?",
"start_ms": 8111238,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_832624": [
{
"text": "it's, um, having a race condition forces people to make irrational decisions.",
"start_ms": 838764,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5785330": [
{
"text": "You know, screw you.\"",
"start_ms": 5775030,
"lead_ms": 10300
},
{
"text": "So I'm gonna train my replacement? You know, screw you.\"",
"start_ms": 5773170,
"lead_ms": 12160
},
{
"text": "And, and people were like, \"Well, you... So I'm gonna train my replacement? You know, screw you.\"",
"start_ms": 5771870,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3998456": [
{
"text": "And the automation's already been happening, right?",
"start_ms": 4010816,
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{
"text": "So in the next year or two, uh, you'll see that hundred and fifty go down to, you know, uh, uh, a probably a, a, a, you know, a single-digit number of surviving, um, uh, humanoid robot companies. And the automation's already been happening, right?",
"start_ms": 3998456,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4146144": [
{
"text": "I mean, w- it, it, we, uh, we have constraints, but the machines now can be designed for the new form, right?",
"start_ms": 4153124,
"lead_ms": 6800
},
{
"text": "So, um, but I mean, you know, we, we, we've evolved because of, of, you know, billions of years of, of biological evolution. I mean, w- it, it, we, uh, we have constraints, but the machines now can be designed for the new form, right?",
"start_ms": 4146144,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6159134": [
{
"text": "And so they say, \"I'm, I'm gonna rather lie flat.",
"start_ms": 6187854,
"lead_ms": 1900
},
{
"text": "Um, and when they get out in the real world, it is hypercompetitive, and now they, they have to go do these, you know, grunt jobs, and they don't want to do it. And so they say, \"I'm, I'm gonna rather lie flat.",
"start_ms": 6180294,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_8462055": [
{
"text": "And if, if we did that, uh, we would have a, a big market to sell our chips.",
"start_ms": 8464016,
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{
"text": "Um, but I think doing that- Yeah. And if, if we did that, uh, we would have a, a big market to sell our chips.",
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},
{
"text": "We should be either doing something like that or we should be working with them to do it together, right? Um, but I think doing that- Yeah. And if, if we did that, uh, we would have a, a big market to sell our chips.",
"start_ms": 8455266,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3226103": [
{
"text": "So I think the whole thought traces thing is overblown, but I really wanna put a pin in one thing Alvin said, which I think is critical and absolutely true.",
"start_ms": 3226103,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, exactly. So I think the whole thought traces thing is overblown, but I really wanna put a pin in one thing Alvin said, which I think is critical and absolutely true.",
"start_ms": 3222824,
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},
{
"text": "And distillation is just the first act. Yeah, exactly. So I think the whole thought traces thing is overblown, but I really wanna put a pin in one thing Alvin said, which I think is critical and absolutely true.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4517814": [
{
"text": "Right now what's happening is around 35% of the global manufacturing capability is in China, about 15% in the US, right? So, so, uh...",
"start_ms": 4557874,
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},
{
"text": "And at that point, uh, the world depended on us. Right now what's happening is around 35% of the global manufacturing capability is in China, about 15% in the US, right? So, so, uh...",
"start_ms": 4554434,
"lead_ms": 11580
}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2686092": [
{
"text": "'Cause I don't think the Chinese want the American financial system to go down, and the, then the Americans don't want the Chinese financial and their grid to go down.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5272946": [
{
"text": "I mean, they, they, they do testing in addition to some of the propaganda testing that they're doing.",
"start_ms": 5273426,
"lead_ms": 4340
},
{
"text": "Yeah. I mean, they, they, they do testing in addition to some of the propaganda testing that they're doing.",
"start_ms": 5273186,
"lead_ms": 4580
},
{
"text": "Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they, they, they do testing in addition to some of the propaganda testing that they're doing.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6291184": [
{
"text": "I think it's very important.",
"start_ms": 6278014,
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},
{
"text": "Let's, let's talk to that one second. I think it's very important.",
"start_ms": 6276694,
"lead_ms": 14490
},
{
"text": "So let me show that slide. Let's, let's talk to that one second. I think it's very important.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5741530": [
{
"text": "I'm sure you guys have talked about the case where, you know, there was multiple legal cases where the courts in China actually ruled in favor of the employee who sued and said-...",
"start_ms": 5732790,
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},
{
"text": "People seem to appreciate that more. I'm sure you guys have talked about the case where, you know, there was multiple legal cases where the courts in China actually ruled in favor of the employee who sued and said-...",
"start_ms": 5730710,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_305080": [
{
"text": "So, and we'll close with Alvin's recent Substack essay called Great Reckoning Before the Reconnecting.",
"start_ms": 305080,
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},
{
"text": "Wanna understand what the objectives are, Alvin, and you know, what you think might be accomplished. So, and we'll close with Alvin's recent Substack essay called Great Reckoning Before the Reconnecting.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6205274": [
{
"text": "And, and that is, that is a, a, an issue.",
"start_ms": 6191654,
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},
{
"text": "I'm just gonna stay at home and do nothing.\" And, and that is, that is a, a, an issue.",
"start_ms": 6189754,
"lead_ms": 15520
},
{
"text": "And so they say, \"I'm, I'm gonna rather lie flat. I'm just gonna stay at home and do nothing.\" And, and that is, that is a, a, an issue.",
"start_ms": 6187854,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6924922": [
{
"text": "Not saying that AI's not amazing.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2114288": [
{
"text": "So, so because this is like a...",
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. So, so because this is like a...",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2448713": [
{
"text": "And I'm not saying that's the case.",
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},
{
"text": "You know, if, if it, if it turned out that was a colossal error, what event would have to happen? And I'm not saying that's the case.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6492594": [
{
"text": "That, that's the, the, the optimal strategy for, uh, the relation to how, you know, AI and game theory works.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4720014": [
{
"text": "But I, but I think that, that the mindset that, that he has right now...",
"start_ms": 4720454,
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},
{
"text": "I... But I, but I think that, that the mindset that, that he has right now...",
"start_ms": 4720014,
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},
{
"text": "the goal is realistic. I... But I, but I think that, that the mindset that, that he has right now...",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1468408": [
{
"text": "And they've had regulations around AI, uh, you know, privacy, data provenance, uh, well, marking, uh, you know, transparency and marking in, in public, um, you know, child addiction, you know, anthropomorphizing AI.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3644754": [
{
"text": "Right Yep. Exactly Yeah.",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5996454": [
{
"text": "So, so this is- Yeah.",
"start_ms": 5991994,
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},
{
"text": "I mean- No, no, no. So, so this is- Yeah.",
"start_ms": 5989974,
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},
{
"text": "Ac- actually, you know, Chinese games and Chinese movies, you can't show blood. I mean- No, no, no. So, so this is- Yeah.",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6034074": [
{
"text": "So we at, at the same time to, to the extent that the West has visibility into changing governance and cultural mores in China as, as a result of automation, we see the rise of Tang Ping, uh, lying flat in response to 996 work weeks.",
"start_ms": 6037534,
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},
{
"text": "just for a, a minute. So we at, at the same time to, to the extent that the West has visibility into changing governance and cultural mores in China as, as a result of automation, we see the rise of Tang Ping, uh, lying flat in response to 996 work weeks.",
"start_ms": 6036274,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2941592": [
{
"text": "Uh, every month, uh, Meta spends somewhere between a hundred and two hundred million on Anthropic tokens. Right.",
"start_ms": 2962152,
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},
{
"text": "Now, here's the thing that also just to give comparison. Uh, every month, uh, Meta spends somewhere between a hundred and two hundred million on Anthropic tokens. Right.",
"start_ms": 2959292,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2885392": [
{
"text": "Um, the reality is that every lab, uh, both domestic and international, distills from each other, right?",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_8082768": [
{
"text": "We, we need to do a, a soft landing for these things so that it does not create a crisis, right?",
"start_ms": 8086678,
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},
{
"text": "And, and they managed it in a way that it was not a crisis, right? We, we need to do a, a soft landing for these things so that it does not create a crisis, right?",
"start_ms": 8082778,
"lead_ms": 10000
},
{
"text": "Right. And, and they managed it in a way that it was not a crisis, right? We, we need to do a, a soft landing for these things so that it does not create a crisis, right?",
"start_ms": 8082768,
"lead_ms": 10010
}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7511038": [
{
"text": "But over the last, you know, 20, 30 years, uh, we've lost that.",
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},
{
"text": "And, yeah, I, I was with Intel and IBM, and we were, at the time, the global dominant player in, in, in semiconductors. But over the last, you know, 20, 30 years, uh, we've lost that.",
"start_ms": 7528318,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3026984": [
{
"text": "They also ha-have access to these, uh, you know, a-and, and I don't think Elon has the same, same concerns over, uh, doing anything to, to speed himself up, right?",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, what about, uh, xAI, right? They also ha-have access to these, uh, you know, a-and, and I don't think Elon has the same, same concerns over, uh, doing anything to, to speed himself up, right?",
"start_ms": 3032724,
"lead_ms": 12510
},
{
"text": "But here, let me give you an example. Uh, what about, uh, xAI, right? They also ha-have access to these, uh, you know, a-and, and I don't think Elon has the same, same concerns over, uh, doing anything to, to speed himself up, right?",
"start_ms": 3031224,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7240994": [
{
"text": "And, and people realize this.",
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6855752": [
{
"text": "at the height of the internet bubble, I think around 30% of the stock market was, um, was, uh, internet companies, right?",
"start_ms": 6856462,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, at the height of the-... at the height of the internet bubble, I think around 30% of the stock market was, um, was, uh, internet companies, right?",
"start_ms": 6854582,
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},
{
"text": "That is a very, very fragile place for us to be. Uh, at the height of the-... at the height of the internet bubble, I think around 30% of the stock market was, um, was, uh, internet companies, right?",
"start_ms": 6850062,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5963844": [
{
"text": "Is that true of Chinese movies, too?",
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},
{
"text": "if there's fear-mongering on the news all the time, that's, that's how you think about the world. Is that true of Chinese movies, too?",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6617322": [
{
"text": "Well, I mean, first of all, we, we can't roll back history.",
"start_ms": 6619242,
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},
{
"text": "I, I, I think that, uh... Well, I mean, first of all, we, we can't roll back history.",
"start_ms": 6617672,
"lead_ms": 4050
},
{
"text": "Um-... I, I, I think that, uh... Well, I mean, first of all, we, we can't roll back history.",
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2865552": [
{
"text": "Um, so the distillation thing, I, I, you know, it's, it's, um, I think it's more of a, a PR tool that, you know, certain companies are using.",
"start_ms": 2865912,
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},
{
"text": "Sure. Um, so the distillation thing, I, I, you know, it's, it's, um, I think it's more of a, a PR tool that, you know, certain companies are using.",
"start_ms": 2865552,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_6744322": [
{
"text": "You had last week, uh, NVIDIA announced that they have a $500 billion deal with BlackRock and Carlyle and, and, uh, Blackstone and so forth to, to essentially securitize, uh, um, uh, chips and, and, and compute, right?",
"start_ms": 6749662,
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}
],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7631638": [
{
"text": "That's the, the, the main focus.",
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},
{
"text": "And, and it is more of a political, uh, and, and, and, um, and a s- to them a civilizational, uh, ending to a, a long story. That's the, the, the main focus.",
"start_ms": 7619358,
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},
{
"text": "they're kind of a pseudo part of an, a, a, a, a, a one national, um, uh, structure, right? And, and it is more of a political, uh, and, and, and, um, and a s- to them a civilizational, uh, ending to a, a long story. That's the, the, the main focus.",
"start_ms": 7611958,
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],
"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3825816": [
{
"text": "Yeah. Well, I, I...",
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"text": "Yeah. Yeah. Well, I, I...",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_3183954": [
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"text": "Um, but I, I, I don't think that the whole distillation, uh, issue is really as big.",
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"text": "Right? Um, but I, I, I don't think that the whole distillation, uh, issue is really as big.",
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"text": "So we, we don't know.\" Right? Um, but I, I, I don't think that the whole distillation, uh, issue is really as big.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7707188": [
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"text": "Um, and maybe at that point, uh, the, the Americans, uh, or maybe Trump will, will give a call to Xi and say, \"Hey, can you help us out again?",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5113950": [
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"text": "And what I found was across millions of parameters to trillions of parameters, there was no correlation between risk in the real world versus size of models. Right?",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_2597712": [
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"text": "Uh, the, the type of things that are-- that the CAC, um, has them review is, you know, things like, you know, removing certain, uh, types of keywords or, or ideology or, or things like that.",
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"text": "No, I, I think those are, those are two separate issues, right? Uh, the, the type of things that are-- that the CAC, um, has them review is, you know, things like, you know, removing certain, uh, types of keywords or, or ideology or, or things like that.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7976058": [
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"text": "Um, you know, if you look at, uh, at, uh, Amazon and, uh, and OpenAI revenues when they talk about AI, most of that, probably more than half of it comes from two companies, right?",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1098696": [
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"text": "Just, just to, to make sure-...",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7675898": [
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"text": "But it, it talks about, um, Taiwan in some aspect to say, \"Hey, um- Just like in, in during the 2008, uh, great financial crisis, actually China helped out the US a lot in terms of, of keeping the financial stability.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_5891044": [
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"text": "I don't know, uh, some-... some 5G.",
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"text": "And then people see, oh, you know, uh, last year we didn't have, uh, you know, uh, uh... I don't know, uh, some-... some 5G.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_8097418": [
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"text": "So I think that- Yeah. Well, I mean, no.",
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"text": "We, we need to do a, a soft landing for these things so that it does not create a crisis, right? So I think that- Yeah. Well, I mean, no.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1734768": [
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"text": "In fact, uh, you know, we, w- I think it's on the agenda to talk about these, the World AI Cooperation Organization, which they had announced, um, at, on the first day of the, um, the, uh, World AI Conference, which is, you know, their version of PAC Silva.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_8412126": [
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"text": "for, for, I think for America to actually, uh, be successful in, in this industry and, and take advantage of what we've created is actually to think about creating something that's, uh, akin to a, um, AI Marshall Plan Right. So the-...",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_7193763": [
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"text": "And the common interest is that, you know, AI is not being used by bad actors to, to create instability around the world, um, that, uh, AI itself is not, um, you know, potentially creating, uh, harm to, to the world on a, on a longer term, right?",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_1524168": [
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"text": "So, so I, I think there's, um, there's definitely a, a difference between maybe Beijing and DC in terms of how they're, how they're looking at it.",
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"text": "like that. So, so I, I think there's, um, there's definitely a, a difference between maybe Beijing and DC in terms of how they're, how they're looking at it.",
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"china_s_endgame_asi_timelines_us_china_relations_and_the_1_7_4054636": [
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"text": "Now, the, the, the one thing I do wanna point out is, um, humanoid robots are actually not really good form factors for doing much of anything right now, right?",
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"text": "Uh, so the, the, the need for having humans in manufacturing is becoming less and less. Now, the, the, the one thing I do wanna point out is, um, humanoid robots are actually not really good form factors for doing much of anything right now, right?",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_211040": [
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"text": "It was a letter on why open models matter, and it's been signed by 77 companies thus far.",
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"text": "His first tweet, what was it? It was a letter on why open models matter, and it's been signed by 77 companies thus far.",
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{
"text": "I mean, he's been on X for the longest time, has never tweeted. His first tweet, what was it? It was a letter on why open models matter, and it's been signed by 77 companies thus far.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_32200": [
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"text": "OpenAI and Anthropic, who have been two rivals for the longest time, they've been pushing for the same agenda, a federal review process for the most powerful models.",
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"text": "in this conversation? OpenAI and Anthropic, who have been two rivals for the longest time, they've been pushing for the same agenda, a federal review process for the most powerful models.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3417132": [
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"text": "Interestingly, a benchmark that Anthropic did not highlight was frontier math, which is I, I think m- maybe in some sense a better bellwether for advanced reasoning capabilities by the models.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_754608": [
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"text": "uh, and was popularized with an American open blank initiative.",
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"text": "Yeah, sure, Richard Stallman and FSF came from Cambridge, Massachusetts, but Linux, which really was the nucleation event arguably for open source, came from Finland-... uh, and was popularized with an American open blank initiative.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_156510": [
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"text": "We're gonna be speaking about Jensen Huang's, uh, mission to create an open secure AI alliance.",
"start_ms": 184660,
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{
"text": "A lot to report this week, a lot to discuss, uh, you know, a lot of intrigue from the frontier labs. We're gonna be speaking about Jensen Huang's, uh, mission to create an open secure AI alliance.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1845432": [
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"text": "comes in with saying, you know, uh, our GDP is gonna double-digit growth and then triple-digit growth.",
"start_ms": 1849392,
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{
"text": "And this is where Elon-... comes in with saying, you know, uh, our GDP is gonna double-digit growth and then triple-digit growth.",
"start_ms": 1848292,
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{
"text": "But, but the entire ecosystem moves up and to the right, right? And this is where Elon-... comes in with saying, you know, uh, our GDP is gonna double-digit growth and then triple-digit growth.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5303614": [
{
"text": "It's our second BCI story.",
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{
"text": "Alex, this next story is one that, that you, uh, uh, threw out, and, uh, happy to talk about it. It's our second BCI story.",
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{
"text": "All right, now back to the episode. Alex, this next story is one that, that you, uh, uh, threw out, and, uh, happy to talk about it. It's our second BCI story.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2615170": [
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"text": "Um, but the, the...",
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{
"text": "Oh, wait. Um, but the, the...",
"start_ms": 2624800,
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{
"text": "If I had to help out, you know, I'd be bald in two seconds. Oh, wait. Um, but the, the...",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1696002": [
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"text": "as you get more and more powerful free models, the value will accrue there because that it depends where the bottleneck is, and it's clear that's where the bottleneck is.",
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"text": "That's where- Well, the ones-- I think, I think that's- I think over time-... as you get more and more powerful free models, the value will accrue there because that it depends where the bottleneck is, and it's clear that's where the bottleneck is.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2003548": [
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"text": "Mm-hmm. Yes, always.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5021244": [
{
"text": "It was a little search plugin to Yahoo.",
"start_ms": 5027384,
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},
{
"text": "And, and Google was a plugin to Yahoo. It was a little search plugin to Yahoo.",
"start_ms": 5025564,
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},
{
"text": "At just Harvard, yeah. And, and Google was a plugin to Yahoo. It was a little search plugin to Yahoo.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2191228": [
{
"text": "You don't have to have any technical skill at all.",
"start_ms": 2191228,
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},
{
"text": "But you can prop up 100 instances, like, in two minutes now if you want to, just, just through voice prompting. You don't have to have any technical skill at all.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_265080": [
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"text": "and Claude Fable, that Hugging Face tried to use to hunt down what was going on, blocked them.",
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{
"text": "The closed AI models, GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable, that Hugging Face tried to use to hunt down what was going on, blocked them.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2825520": [
{
"text": "Something else that's intensive, developing front end software.",
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{
"text": "It's a visual code intensive challenge. Something else that's intensive, developing front end software.",
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{
"text": "which is, as of this moment last I was tracking, the highest official score from a baseline model on the ARC-AGI 3 challenge. It's a visual code intensive challenge. Something else that's intensive, developing front end software.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_7137100": [
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"text": "But based on the, my previous point and the whole organizational singularity stuff, the impera- implication for companies is super urgent.",
"start_ms": 7161640,
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{
"text": "That becomes really interesting. But based on the, my previous point and the whole organizational singularity stuff, the impera- implication for companies is super urgent.",
"start_ms": 7160160,
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{
"text": "It's almost like a co-op model. That becomes really interesting. But based on the, my previous point and the whole organizational singularity stuff, the impera- implication for companies is super urgent.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3205860": [
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"text": "I think, I think that scaffolding argument though is really, really important because if it holds up...",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3916420": [
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"text": "Yeah, but you're also selling an F-16 to, like, it's exactly the same problem.",
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{
"text": "uh, fighters, and that'll support the creation of more of those fighters. Yeah, but you're also selling an F-16 to, like, it's exactly the same problem.",
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{
"text": "But if we don't sell the F-16s, they'll buy Russian and Chinese-... uh, fighters, and that'll support the creation of more of those fighters. Yeah, but you're also selling an F-16 to, like, it's exactly the same problem.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_7203880": [
{
"text": "All right, final question, number six.",
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{
"text": "Mm. All right, final question, number six.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2718680": [
{
"text": "You know, I made the switch immediately on, on, on, on Skippy for myself.",
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{
"text": "It becomes the new default for Claude Max, priced at $5 per million token input and $25 per million output tokens, unchanged from Opus 4.8. You know, I made the switch immediately on, on, on, on Skippy for myself.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2871160": [
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"text": "According to that chart, Fable 5 is below the frontier.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3832700": [
{
"text": "If you create a restrictive open model policy, it's gonna be strategically a sh- um, like a self-own and shoot your own foot of an epic level.",
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{
"text": "The whole power of the US is its open and very broad innovation ecosystem. If you create a restrictive open model policy, it's gonna be strategically a sh- um, like a self-own and shoot your own foot of an epic level.",
"start_ms": 3834560,
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},
{
"text": "I c- I can't stress this enough. The whole power of the US is its open and very broad innovation ecosystem. If you create a restrictive open model policy, it's gonna be strategically a sh- um, like a self-own and shoot your own foot of an epic level.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1455200": [
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"text": "The second point also, I continue to think enforcement is being leveled at the wrong part of the stack.",
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{
"text": "Well, it's the regulation of RSI argument. The second point also, I continue to think enforcement is being leveled at the wrong part of the stack.",
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{
"text": "So- It is, it is the... Well, it's the regulation of RSI argument. The second point also, I continue to think enforcement is being leveled at the wrong part of the stack.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6281400": [
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"text": "Can I mention one of my favorite abundance statistics that you put out, Peter?",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Can I mention one of my favorite abundance statistics that you put out, Peter?",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Yeah. Can I mention one of my favorite abundance statistics that you put out, Peter?",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6331900": [
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"text": "Uh, so there are a few different interesting questions here.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, so there are a few different interesting questions here.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5831444": [
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"text": "Or just owning, um, you know, some scarce, uh, r- resource that's antique collectible.",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, or s- spend a week on the moon, maybe there's some price there. Or just owning, um, you know, some scarce, uh, r- resource that's antique collectible.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_355590": [
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"text": "But Dario reframed the competition, reframed this debate, saying that the real issue is not open versus closed, it's whether authoritarian states, i.e.",
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"text": "There's a lot of videos showing that he was sure hinting at that. But Dario reframed the competition, reframed this debate, saying that the real issue is not open versus closed, it's whether authoritarian states, i.e.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_15540": [
{
"text": "Where is Anthropic in this conversation?",
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"text": "Anthropic was silent for three days, and there was a lot of conversation. Where is Anthropic in this conversation?",
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{
"text": "A couple of days ago, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, he says the world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models. Anthropic was silent for three days, and there was a lot of conversation. Where is Anthropic in this conversation?",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2371660": [
{
"text": "People don't work that way.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2998730": [
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"text": "So taking larger model and using it to teach a smaller model, a more cost-effective model.",
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"text": "This is the, the type of distillation that is under the present regime welcome and not disdained. So taking larger model and using it to teach a smaller model, a more cost-effective model.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_318640": [
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"text": "So yesterday, Dario finally responded, saying he rejects the claim that Anthropic wants only open, uh, doesn't want open weight models.",
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"text": "You know, historically, they've been opposed to open source for a number of reasons. So yesterday, Dario finally responded, saying he rejects the claim that Anthropic wants only open, uh, doesn't want open weight models.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3765340": [
{
"text": "AI is becoming an instrument of soft power.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1765552": [
{
"text": "I think actually it's gonna go up and down, per Alex's prior comment.",
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{
"text": "Well, I think that's exactly right. I think actually it's gonna go up and down, per Alex's prior comment.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_851178": [
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"text": "Yeah I, I've referenced this before, but I, it's worth repeating again.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1044748": [
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"text": "Yeah, the argument though, uh, uh, with open source, you're, you're basically saying, look, if everybody's looking at the source code, if there's anything evil in there, somebody will see it.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1984518": [
{
"text": "'Cause you have universities, you have startups, you've got defense contractors, hospitals.",
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{
"text": "I, I want to, um, echo what Jensen Huang said, which is he said, made the point that open models will make the US stronger because you're building an ecosystem.'Cause you have universities, you have startups, you've got defense contractors, hospitals.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_590284": [
{
"text": "And I, I think due to the competition and, quite frankly, due to the outstanding success at the frontier of what until recently looked like an OpenAI Anthropic duopoly, I think we're seeing the GPU Nvidia layer fire back.",
"start_ms": 621483,
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},
{
"text": "Or does it live elsewhere? And I, I think due to the competition and, quite frankly, due to the outstanding success at the frontier of what until recently looked like an OpenAI Anthropic duopoly, I think we're seeing the GPU Nvidia layer fire back.",
"start_ms": 620204,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1536342": [
{
"text": "This is, uh, Fable 5.",
"start_ms": 1544352,
"lead_ms": 2220
},
{
"text": "Sol. This is, uh, Fable 5.",
"start_ms": 1543852,
"lead_ms": 2720
},
{
"text": "These are-- This is GPT 5.6 Sol. This is, uh, Fable 5.",
"start_ms": 1540812,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3688440": [
{
"text": "No, I'd, uh, just double down on the same thing.",
"start_ms": 3688440,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5963172": [
{
"text": "Hmm There's a- Sorry There, there, there's a monster elephant in the room though, okay?",
"start_ms": 5943972,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6011672": [
{
"text": "So this is the printing money problem that we have, where we're just radically printing money to keep the whole thing afloat, which is why assets are so important to own rather than, uh, uh, cash, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 6016192,
"lead_ms": 11180
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4570476": [
{
"text": "Uh, two stories this week.",
"start_ms": 4594416,
"lead_ms": 1160
},
{
"text": "Uh, our next story is, uh, in the world of brain computer interface. Uh, two stories this week.",
"start_ms": 4589936,
"lead_ms": 5640
},
{
"text": "All right, uh, let's stay on the science theme. Uh, our next story is, uh, in the world of brain computer interface. Uh, two stories this week.",
"start_ms": 4587676,
"lead_ms": 7900
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_460394": [
{
"text": "Well, Dario, Dario, I am 100% convinced, is speaking his mind without an agenda.",
"start_ms": 464884,
"lead_ms": 5860
},
{
"text": "Yeah. Well, Dario, Dario, I am 100% convinced, is speaking his mind without an agenda.",
"start_ms": 464444,
"lead_ms": 6300
},
{
"text": "I'm thoroughly convinced. Yeah. Well, Dario, Dario, I am 100% convinced, is speaking his mind without an agenda.",
"start_ms": 463234,
"lead_ms": 7510
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4352716": [
{
"text": "And then you got the r- you know, the, the Starships.",
"start_ms": 4354576,
"lead_ms": 2160
},
{
"text": "like crazy cool. And then you got the r- you know, the, the Starships.",
"start_ms": 4353216,
"lead_ms": 3520
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4927404": [
{
"text": "You know, the corpus callosum is what connects the right and left hemisphere of your brain.",
"start_ms": 4929244,
"lead_ms": 4560
},
{
"text": "Uh, he thinks of it as an extra... You know, the corpus callosum is what connects the right and left hemisphere of your brain.",
"start_ms": 4927784,
"lead_ms": 6020
},
{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, he thinks of it as an extra... You know, the corpus callosum is what connects the right and left hemisphere of your brain.",
"start_ms": 4927404,
"lead_ms": 6400
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1814232": [
{
"text": "You know, all the manufact-- all that stuff is incredibly sustainable.",
"start_ms": 1824612,
"lead_ms": 2500
},
{
"text": "that have used AI to have a hugely impactful either user base if it's entertainment, drug portfolio if it's biotech, or robotics line. You know, all the manufact-- all that stuff is incredibly sustainable.",
"start_ms": 1814272,
"lead_ms": 12840
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2219949": [
{
"text": "transformer architecture.",
"start_ms": 2219980,
"lead_ms": 1370
},
{
"text": "critical elements of the original-... transformer architecture.",
"start_ms": 2218289,
"lead_ms": 3061
},
{
"text": "interesting thing I saw in the architecture, position embeddings are gone Th-th-this was one of the, the most-... critical elements of the original-... transformer architecture.",
"start_ms": 2211728,
"lead_ms": 9622
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_991187": [
{
"text": "They, they came up with 10 different arguments for, for why open source was too dangerous to use in the enterprise, and they all ended up being wrong.",
"start_ms": 1013868,
"lead_ms": 8380
},
{
"text": "Oh, you'll be subject to IP lawsuits\"? They, they came up with 10 different arguments for, for why open source was too dangerous to use in the enterprise, and they all ended up being wrong.",
"start_ms": 1011548,
"lead_ms": 10700
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4115496": [
{
"text": "It accomplished a number of key firsts.",
"start_ms": 4137926,
"lead_ms": 1930
},
{
"text": "Uh, SpaceX has confirmed, uh, launch and splash down, an incredible, uh, incredible, uh, trip it made for Starship 13, their largest vehicle to date. It accomplished a number of key firsts.",
"start_ms": 4127956,
"lead_ms": 11900
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4193236": [
{
"text": "You gotta love this, uh, drone footage from above the launch at Star Base.",
"start_ms": 4184616,
"lead_ms": 8620
},
{
"text": "All right, let's take a look at the launch first. You gotta love this, uh, drone footage from above the launch at Star Base.",
"start_ms": 4179286,
"lead_ms": 13950
},
{
"text": "This is space porn. All right, let's take a look at the launch first. You gotta love this, uh, drone footage from above the launch at Star Base.",
"start_ms": 4177956,
"lead_ms": 15280
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1956838": [
{
"text": "Why isn't it a summit to talk about the rules?",
"start_ms": 1959528,
"lead_ms": 6570
},
{
"text": "Why isn't it everybody else? Why isn't it a summit to talk about the rules?",
"start_ms": 1957948,
"lead_ms": 8150
},
{
"text": "Then why is it just them? Why isn't it everybody else? Why isn't it a summit to talk about the rules?",
"start_ms": 1956838,
"lead_ms": 9260
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1972228": [
{
"text": "I, I'd like to make a slightly tangential point here.",
"start_ms": 1972228,
"lead_ms": 2860
},
{
"text": "Yeah. I, I'd like to make a slightly tangential point here.",
"start_ms": 1971388,
"lead_ms": 3700
},
{
"text": "Mira Murati. Yeah. I, I'd like to make a slightly tangential point here.",
"start_ms": 1970388,
"lead_ms": 4700
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4417556": [
{
"text": "So if you're an entrepreneur looking for something to do in the world, uh, you know, what's missing?",
"start_ms": 4429996,
"lead_ms": 5660
},
{
"text": "Um, now you can 3D print parts, you can iterate rapidly. So if you're an entrepreneur looking for something to do in the world, uh, you know, what's missing?",
"start_ms": 4425556,
"lead_ms": 10100
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_407024": [
{
"text": "I'm, I'm sure that, uh, Jensen doesn't necessarily like that one.",
"start_ms": 407024,
"lead_ms": 4040
},
{
"text": "One, block advanced chips and chip-making equipment from reaching China. I'm, I'm sure that, uh, Jensen doesn't necessarily like that one.",
"start_ms": 402304,
"lead_ms": 8760
},
{
"text": "Three things. One, block advanced chips and chip-making equipment from reaching China. I'm, I'm sure that, uh, Jensen doesn't necessarily like that one.",
"start_ms": 401664,
"lead_ms": 9400
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6727444": [
{
"text": "How long does it actually...",
"start_ms": 6740964,
"lead_ms": 860
},
{
"text": "Number one, uh, how long does it take to actually take a patch or take... How long does it actually...",
"start_ms": 6735504,
"lead_ms": 6320
},
{
"text": "Uh, so what's left? Number one, uh, how long does it take to actually take a patch or take... How long does it actually...",
"start_ms": 6734844,
"lead_ms": 6980
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6300280": [
{
"text": "between 6:00 AM, 6:00 PM and then s- and 8:00, 8:00 PM.",
"start_ms": 6306100,
"lead_ms": 3720
},
{
"text": "News media delivers every murder, every crooked politician over and over again into your living room-... between 6:00 AM, 6:00 PM and then s- and 8:00, 8:00 PM.",
"start_ms": 6301180,
"lead_ms": 8640
},
{
"text": "You don't. News media delivers every murder, every crooked politician over and over again into your living room-... between 6:00 AM, 6:00 PM and then s- and 8:00, 8:00 PM.",
"start_ms": 6300280,
"lead_ms": 9540
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_650074": [
{
"text": "W- why isn't Nvidia aggressively financing, say, TSMC Samsung competitors? Why is it-...",
"start_ms": 644074,
"lead_ms": 6590
},
{
"text": "Where, where is... W- why isn't Nvidia aggressively financing, say, TSMC Samsung competitors? Why is it-...",
"start_ms": 643044,
"lead_ms": 7620
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1907228": [
{
"text": "I, honestly, though, I, I really think it's not a regulatory capture move.",
"start_ms": 1912998,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5133984": [
{
"text": "So classic examples are Uber and Airbnb had been tried before, but when they launched in 2008, it was just after the recession, and people were looking to make money.",
"start_ms": 5123384,
"lead_ms": 10600
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4100706": [
{
"text": "And if you go back to what Alex just said, that goes up 10X when you outsource your thinking, and that's really dangerous.",
"start_ms": 4102555,
"lead_ms": 5901
},
{
"text": "we didn't understand exponential thinking.\" And if you go back to what Alex just said, that goes up 10X when you outsource your thinking, and that's really dangerous.",
"start_ms": 4100706,
"lead_ms": 7750
},
{
"text": "And they're like, \"Damn, we just mortgaged the entire country because-... we didn't understand exponential thinking.\" And if you go back to what Alex just said, that goes up 10X when you outsource your thinking, and that's really dangerous.",
"start_ms": 4097736,
"lead_ms": 10720
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1145660": [
{
"text": "Can't do it. You can't do it.",
"start_ms": 1144200,
"lead_ms": 2120
},
{
"text": "Can't. Can't do it. You can't do it.",
"start_ms": 1144010,
"lead_ms": 2310
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2364220": [
{
"text": "Well, the, the NOPE thing too, uh, uh, you know, ROPE is just sort of random positionally.",
"start_ms": 2364220,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4276066": [
{
"text": "So think about, you know, taking a gallon of water-- of, of milk to orbit, uh, 54,000 bucks.",
"start_ms": 4308036,
"lead_ms": 6140
},
{
"text": "The space shuttle was roughly $54,000 per kilogram to orbit, right? So think about, you know, taking a gallon of water-- of, of milk to orbit, uh, 54,000 bucks.",
"start_ms": 4302936,
"lead_ms": 11240
},
{
"text": "I mean, the cost of launch is plummeting, and let me just give you the numbers real quick. The space shuttle was roughly $54,000 per kilogram to orbit, right? So think about, you know, taking a gallon of water-- of, of milk to orbit, uh, 54,000 bucks.",
"start_ms": 4298816,
"lead_ms": 15360
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_7258840": [
{
"text": "Uh, I think, um, if you, if you, uh, add value, you will get stock, and there are so many ways.",
"start_ms": 7258840,
"lead_ms": 7900
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1479380": [
{
"text": "If we have incredibly powerful open weight models, how do the top frontier labs make money?",
"start_ms": 1483720,
"lead_ms": 5880
},
{
"text": "You know, I've been thinking a bunch about the conversations going on. If we have incredibly powerful open weight models, how do the top frontier labs make money?",
"start_ms": 1480020,
"lead_ms": 9580
},
{
"text": "Hmm. You know, I've been thinking a bunch about the conversations going on. If we have incredibly powerful open weight models, how do the top frontier labs make money?",
"start_ms": 1479380,
"lead_ms": 10220
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1709292": [
{
"text": "And that has economic consequences.",
"start_ms": 1724692,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_682334": [
{
"text": "You know, Elon is the one guy who's overtly said, \"I'm gonna build the Terafab.\"",
"start_ms": 678964,
"lead_ms": 3370
},
{
"text": "Uh, but if you're gonna do... You know, Elon is the one guy who's overtly said, \"I'm gonna build the Terafab.\"",
"start_ms": 677364,
"lead_ms": 4970
},
{
"text": "They are so in control of the world right now. Uh, but if you're gonna do... You know, Elon is the one guy who's overtly said, \"I'm gonna build the Terafab.\"",
"start_ms": 674664,
"lead_ms": 7670
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1865908": [
{
"text": "I, I, I, I think this, the, the open source, a- again, I, I've mentioned this now on two prior occasions that the Chinese Communist Party coming to rescue American capitalism from itself.",
"start_ms": 1865908,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2137048": [
{
"text": "This is massive, and I, I, I just feel like it may get, not get documented in the history books that way.",
"start_ms": 2155368,
"lead_ms": 6180
},
{
"text": "on your machine. This is massive, and I, I, I just feel like it may get, not get documented in the history books that way.",
"start_ms": 2154688,
"lead_ms": 6860
},
{
"text": "Like, you have an AI capable of self-improvement now out in the wild that anyone can use-... on your machine. This is massive, and I, I, I just feel like it may get, not get documented in the history books that way.",
"start_ms": 2149228,
"lead_ms": 12320
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6844114": [
{
"text": "And we invented a class right in this pod that must exist, you know, prompt engineering and scaffolding.",
"start_ms": 6847484,
"lead_ms": 6200
},
{
"text": "Purpose-driven learning. And we invented a class right in this pod that must exist, you know, prompt engineering and scaffolding.",
"start_ms": 6846084,
"lead_ms": 7600
},
{
"text": "to learn whatever they want to learn. Purpose-driven learning. And we invented a class right in this pod that must exist, you know, prompt engineering and scaffolding.",
"start_ms": 6844114,
"lead_ms": 9570
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6170912": [
{
"text": "Uh, Daron, uh, Acemo\u011flu is a, a Nobel laureate in economics, and he s- says, \"I propose ch- uh, a proposed challenge for Elon Musk, an opportunity to put your money where your mouth is.",
"start_ms": 6175642,
"lead_ms": 11830
},
{
"text": "Let me just read it. Uh, Daron, uh, Acemo\u011flu is a, a Nobel laureate in economics, and he s- says, \"I propose ch- uh, a proposed challenge for Elon Musk, an opportunity to put your money where your mouth is.",
"start_ms": 6174012,
"lead_ms": 13460
},
{
"text": "And then this tweet exchange occurs. Let me just read it. Uh, Daron, uh, Acemo\u011flu is a, a Nobel laureate in economics, and he s- says, \"I propose ch- uh, a proposed challenge for Elon Musk, an opportunity to put your money where your mouth is.",
"start_ms": 6170912,
"lead_ms": 16560
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_7302890": [
{
"text": "'Cause people have syndicates where, um, Jason Calacanis will invest in a bunch of startups, and you can buy into that syndicate.",
"start_ms": 7306370,
"lead_ms": 6310
},
{
"text": "uh, to go to AngelList, uh, syndicates.'Cause people have syndicates where, um, Jason Calacanis will invest in a bunch of startups, and you can buy into that syndicate.",
"start_ms": 7302890,
"lead_ms": 9790
},
{
"text": "my favorite, uh, suggestion would be-... uh, to go to AngelList, uh, syndicates.'Cause people have syndicates where, um, Jason Calacanis will invest in a bunch of startups, and you can buy into that syndicate.",
"start_ms": 7300190,
"lead_ms": 12490
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1610372": [
{
"text": "And so I, I think just saying, well, there are these multiple business models is probably unrealistic.",
"start_ms": 1645612,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5474604": [
{
"text": "Or m- maybe even, I mean, I, I think the end game for the motor cortex does look like some variant of partial brain uploading, uh, or something adjacent to that.",
"start_ms": 5467664,
"lead_ms": 12180
},
{
"text": "They'd be able to walk around in, in large robots, Sigourney Weaver Alien, Aliens style. Or m- maybe even, I mean, I, I think the end game for the motor cortex does look like some variant of partial brain uploading, uh, or something adjacent to that.",
"start_ms": 5461064,
"lead_ms": 18780
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6898684": [
{
"text": "communications skills?",
"start_ms": 6898754,
"lead_ms": 6110
},
{
"text": "What about a humanities credit at MIT for prompt communication, uh, prompt engineering and context engineering as a sort of a, a stealthy way to introduce-... communications skills?",
"start_ms": 6890304,
"lead_ms": 14560
},
{
"text": "had problem sets or, or lab assignments. What about a humanities credit at MIT for prompt communication, uh, prompt engineering and context engineering as a sort of a, a stealthy way to introduce-... communications skills?",
"start_ms": 6887674,
"lead_ms": 17190
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_78030": [
{
"text": "and we are climbing at a hyperexponential.",
"start_ms": 78040,
"lead_ms": 2500
},
{
"text": "We are on the curve-... and we are climbing at a hyperexponential.",
"start_ms": 77140,
"lead_ms": 3400
},
{
"text": "Uh, well, no, it's-- We're on the curve. We are on the curve-... and we are climbing at a hyperexponential.",
"start_ms": 75340,
"lead_ms": 5200
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2392610": [
{
"text": "Like, but it's the beauty of open source.",
"start_ms": 2398840,
"lead_ms": 1620
},
{
"text": "Like, that's so obvious. Like, but it's the beauty of open source.",
"start_ms": 2397760,
"lead_ms": 2700
},
{
"text": "Obviously. Like, that's so obvious. Like, but it's the beauty of open source.",
"start_ms": 2396560,
"lead_ms": 3900
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5213924": [
{
"text": "Get me out to anybody.",
"start_ms": 5209754,
"lead_ms": 4170
},
{
"text": "I'd love that. Get me out to anybody.",
"start_ms": 5209754,
"lead_ms": 4170
},
{
"text": "Yeah, please. I'd love that. Get me out to anybody.",
"start_ms": 5196714,
"lead_ms": 17210
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6527020": [
{
"text": "children per family.",
"start_ms": 6570580,
"lead_ms": 1110
},
{
"text": "The, to keep the population s- uh, s- you know, without growth or decrease, it's 2.1 children per family.",
"start_ms": 6564360,
"lead_ms": 7330
},
{
"text": "We're seeing in Asia and Europe, uh, you know, a, a, a reproductive rate of, uh, under one child per family, right? The, to keep the population s- uh, s- you know, without growth or decrease, it's 2.1 children per family.",
"start_ms": 6554600,
"lead_ms": 17090
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4526386": [
{
"text": "It did exactly what they expected it to do.",
"start_ms": 4534666,
"lead_ms": 1750
},
{
"text": "No, it didn't fail. It did exactly what they expected it to do.",
"start_ms": 4534076,
"lead_ms": 2340
},
{
"text": "You know, uh, people say, \"Oh my God, it failed.\" No, it didn't fail. It did exactly what they expected it to do.",
"start_ms": 4532076,
"lead_ms": 4340
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_784108": [
{
"text": "Um, you know, I, I like this open secure AI alliance, whatever the name is, uh,'cause the w- the, Jensen is reframing open weights from a security vulnerability to being a security capability.",
"start_ms": 785708,
"lead_ms": 14510
},
{
"text": "Oh, um, yeah, completely. Um, you know, I, I like this open secure AI alliance, whatever the name is, uh,'cause the w- the, Jensen is reframing open weights from a security vulnerability to being a security capability.",
"start_ms": 784108,
"lead_ms": 16110
}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6969424": [
{
"text": "I, I've mentioned this on the pod in the past, uh, a couple of terms, Solomonoff induction and AxE.",
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"text": "There's, um... I, I've mentioned this on the pod in the past, uh, a couple of terms, Solomonoff induction and AxE.",
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"text": "And the answer is, in fact, no, it's not garbage in, garbage out. There's, um... I, I've mentioned this on the pod in the past, uh, a couple of terms, Solomonoff induction and AxE.",
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"text": "But all of a sudden, in this scenario, AI is today already, and will be in the future, the best physician.",
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"text": "$3,000 a month, which today gives you a bare minimum level of living. But all of a sudden, in this scenario, AI is today already, and will be in the future, the best physician.",
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"text": "Uh, I call them COVID checks, right? $3,000 a month, which today gives you a bare minimum level of living. But all of a sudden, in this scenario, AI is today already, and will be in the future, the best physician.",
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"text": "This is-- they're facing, both Anthropic and Open AI, are facing a very aggressive innovator's dilemma response.",
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"text": "Right now the safety argument and the economic self-interest are very overlapped and hard to separate. This is-- they're facing, both Anthropic and Open AI, are facing a very aggressive innovator's dilemma response.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2074047": [
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"text": "And, and Alex, I know you just own the index, so you're set. Yeah.",
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{
"text": "Do you, Dave? And, and Alex, I know you just own the index, so you're set. Yeah.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5081664": [
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"text": "Was it because they had more money? Was it because...",
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"text": "Uh, was it because the CEO was smarter or trained at a, you know, you know, ex- exclusive Harvard, Harvard or MIT? Was it because they had more money? Was it because...",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6649764": [
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"text": "Um, the, the, the capability diffusion is very difficult to stop permanently because once you have useful behaviors, people are gonna learn from it, and then they have a huge incentive to reproduce it in other models.",
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],
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"text": "Some of them, like if you look at humanity's last exam, they're...",
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"text": "Uh, these seem to be benchmarks that are at, involving codegen A-and or imagery or vision and living at the intersection between them. Some of them, like if you look at humanity's last exam, they're...",
"start_ms": 2935460,
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{
"text": "that's what I was politely gesturing at. Uh, these seem to be benchmarks that are at, involving codegen A-and or imagery or vision and living at the intersection between them. Some of them, like if you look at humanity's last exam, they're...",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5197264": [
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"text": "And so once you have that feedback loop, that becomes very powerful. Yeah.",
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"text": "Uh, John Hagel and I have come up with a framework where it allows you to measure luck. And so once you have that feedback loop, that becomes very powerful. Yeah.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_7064880": [
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"text": "that absolutely kills you.",
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{
"text": "It's mislabeled data-... that absolutely kills you.",
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{
"text": "Uh, not, not, not, not to beat this to death, but having trained many, many neural nets and training some right now, uh, synthetic data is fine. It's mislabeled data-... that absolutely kills you.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2577560": [
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"text": "They were like, \"Oh, this stuff is super cheap.\"",
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"text": "This is, this is gonna be a goldmine for you, Salim, because nobody up until Kenny really cared about speed in any corporate environment. They were like, \"Oh, this stuff is super cheap.\"",
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{
"text": "Yeah. This is, this is gonna be a goldmine for you, Salim, because nobody up until Kenny really cared about speed in any corporate environment. They were like, \"Oh, this stuff is super cheap.\"",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2504680": [
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"text": "W- with the launch of this, I think is...",
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{
"text": "Um, we picked 10, so we're running the pilot with them. W- with the launch of this, I think is...",
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{
"text": "We had almost 400 applicants. Um, we picked 10, so we're running the pilot with them. W- with the launch of this, I think is...",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5597624": [
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"text": "Uh, we, you know, I talked about this with him when he was at the Abundance Summit this past, uh, this past year.",
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{
"text": "Uh, it's a world of radical abundance that, in which scarcity no longer matters, money no longer matters. Uh, we, you know, I talked about this with him when he was at the Abundance Summit this past, uh, this past year.",
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{
"text": "It's his post-capitalist vision. Uh, it's a world of radical abundance that, in which scarcity no longer matters, money no longer matters. Uh, we, you know, I talked about this with him when he was at the Abundance Summit this past, uh, this past year.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_558464": [
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"text": "And Nvidia has been very stealthy, i- if you will, very polite, very diplomatic about their desire to commoditize the model layer.",
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{
"text": "The, the first rule if you're an aggregator in business is commoditize your complements. And Nvidia has been very stealthy, i- if you will, very polite, very diplomatic about their desire to commoditize the model layer.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1267300": [
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"text": "So the question we're chewing on today is whether AI needs guardrails and, uh, who gets to set them up and who gets locked out.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4622396": [
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"text": "Science announced that his first product called Prima, P-R-I-M-A, I'm sure it's an acronym, uh, has been approved for launch in Europe.",
"start_ms": 4612916,
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{
"text": "Uh, he's the past president of Neuralink and someone who I've had on the Abundance stage a number of times. Science announced that his first product called Prima, P-R-I-M-A, I'm sure it's an acronym, uh, has been approved for launch in Europe.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5696924": [
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"text": "Um, you know, I think the, you're, y- th- there's a couple of different threads here, right?",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6767804": [
{
"text": "I love number five.",
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},
{
"text": "Oh, thanks. I love number five.",
"start_ms": 6773744,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, and that's all there is to that, so... Oh, thanks. I love number five.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6868684": [
{
"text": "Dave, here's an idea for you.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1126610": [
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"text": "Yeah, I think, well, I think there's an opportunity to contain it at the weights level in open source, but there's also a better opportunity to monitor the actual data centers and, and just have a clear reporting global transparency on what's running where.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1373240": [
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"text": "So I, I think th- that's sort of the obvious story.",
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"text": "Uh, from a deployment perspective, which is half the battle, deploying an open weight model has a very different deployment situation than access via gated API to a closed weight model. So I, I think th- that's sort of the obvious story.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6116152": [
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"text": "They're like, like, what the- No, we're gonna make so much stuff the- and have so much abundance that it won't matter.",
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},
{
"text": "And then the... They're like, like, what the- No, we're gonna make so much stuff the- and have so much abundance that it won't matter.",
"start_ms": 6114592,
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},
{
"text": "And they go, \"Oh my God, does that mean the exchange rate between the pound and the euro?\" And then the... They're like, like, what the- No, we're gonna make so much stuff the- and have so much abundance that it won't matter.",
"start_ms": 6111452,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1181820": [
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"text": "So as soon as you throw it out there as open source, that's fine, but now you have to crack down on the install and the compute.",
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{
"text": "Uh, so you need that transparency layer. So as soon as you throw it out there as open source, that's fine, but now you have to crack down on the install and the compute.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1590872": [
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"text": "When I'm inside WhatsApp or whatever, I'm not thinking what model am I using.",
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{
"text": "So Meta has three point five billion active users using MuSPARC 1.1. When I'm inside WhatsApp or whatever, I'm not thinking what model am I using.",
"start_ms": 1582652,
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},
{
"text": "And they make their money on the application layer. So Meta has three point five billion active users using MuSPARC 1.1. When I'm inside WhatsApp or whatever, I'm not thinking what model am I using.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2978649": [
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"text": "I don't want to accuse it of broad benchmarking, but it just, like, if, if you look at the drop relative to Fable 5 for legal or health or some other areas, obviously there was some sort of distillation.",
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{
"text": "It, it's still very well-rounded. I don't want to accuse it of broad benchmarking, but it just, like, if, if you look at the drop relative to Fable 5 for legal or health or some other areas, obviously there was some sort of distillation.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1254000": [
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"text": "Anthropic dropped thirteen percent after K3 was announced, about two hundred and thirty, uh, uh, billion dollars.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, I looked it up on the secondaries. Anthropic dropped thirteen percent after K3 was announced, about two hundred and thirty, uh, uh, billion dollars.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4499346": [
{
"text": "I, I certainly hope that this Flight 13 ends up in a museum at some point, given the soft splashdown.",
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{
"text": "I was very impressed with that. I, I certainly hope that this Flight 13 ends up in a museum at some point, given the soft splashdown.",
"start_ms": 4492536,
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},
{
"text": "That's like something out of Star Trek or The Expanse. I was very impressed with that. I, I certainly hope that this Flight 13 ends up in a museum at some point, given the soft splashdown.",
"start_ms": 4490236,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4368436": [
{
"text": "Just the amount of, of possibility is so exponentially bigger than it was just five years ago.",
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},
{
"text": "And then you got the r- you know, the, the Starships. Just the amount of, of possibility is so exponentially bigger than it was just five years ago.",
"start_ms": 4354576,
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},
{
"text": "like crazy cool. And then you got the r- you know, the, the Starships. Just the amount of, of possibility is so exponentially bigger than it was just five years ago.",
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5543834": [
{
"text": "You know, you can, you can inhabit a Optimus in Japan if you're sitting there in Boston.",
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},
{
"text": "You know, you can be anywhere. You know, you can, you can inhabit a Optimus in Japan if you're sitting there in Boston.",
"start_ms": 5546004,
"lead_ms": 7780
},
{
"text": "Yeah, it's tele- it's effectively telepresence. You know, you can be anywhere. You know, you can, you can inhabit a Optimus in Japan if you're sitting there in Boston.",
"start_ms": 5543834,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6700664": [
{
"text": "And we keep talking about feedback loops.",
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{
"text": "Do you have feedback loops? And we keep talking about feedback loops.",
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},
{
"text": "Do you have users? Do you have feedback loops? And we keep talking about feedback loops.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2596750": [
{
"text": "to what your business needs.",
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{
"text": "easy, easy 10X and maybe 100X like Salim is saying, just by tuning it-... to what your business needs.",
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{
"text": "But there's an-... easy, easy 10X and maybe 100X like Salim is saying, just by tuning it-... to what your business needs.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4235696": [
{
"text": "It's beautiful Ignite the Raptor engines. Yeah.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_883048": [
{
"text": "It doesn't answer the question of bioweapons. You know?",
"start_ms": 906468,
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},
{
"text": "So that's great business strategy. It doesn't answer the question of bioweapons. You know?",
"start_ms": 904648,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1096888": [
{
"text": "write a sonnet or get your job- Yeah, okay. Thank you.",
"start_ms": 1085008,
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},
{
"text": "Like, you know-... write a sonnet or get your job- Yeah, okay. Thank you.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6586340": [
{
"text": "And over and over again, even if we have, you know, population...",
"start_ms": 6589560,
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},
{
"text": "The other question that this person might then pose is, okay, what about access to resources? And over and over again, even if we have, you know, population...",
"start_ms": 6582400,
"lead_ms": 10180
},
{
"text": "So we have an issue in a number of generations, these cultures, these countries are going away. The other question that this person might then pose is, okay, what about access to resources? And over and over again, even if we have, you know, population...",
"start_ms": 6576520,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1327000": [
{
"text": "Uh, maybe let me point out the, the clich\u00e9 m- more s- superficial analysis, which is that the frontier labs are maybe to some extent talking out of both sides of their mouths.",
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, maybe let me point out the, the clich\u00e9 m- more s- superficial analysis, which is that the frontier labs are maybe to some extent talking out of both sides of their mouths.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5240884": [
{
"text": "Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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},
{
"text": "I'm here today with Dr. Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3978320": [
{
"text": "Foreign, uh, corporat- or foreign corporation that's basically, uh, under the thumb of a foreign government builds telecommunications equipment and deploys it to you, so now you have cell phones.",
"start_ms": 3966520,
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},
{
"text": "Okay, so you default on the loan, that has a certain outcome. Foreign, uh, corporat- or foreign corporation that's basically, uh, under the thumb of a foreign government builds telecommunications equipment and deploys it to you, so now you have cell phones.",
"start_ms": 3962860,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2463920": [
{
"text": "Uh, I've got a couple of comments and a big announcement. Uh, comments.",
"start_ms": 2463920,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2525870": [
{
"text": "So we're gonna answer that question.",
"start_ms": 2524460,
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},
{
"text": "And it should be, \"What do I do on Monday?\" So we're gonna answer that question.",
"start_ms": 2522840,
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},
{
"text": "So we're launching a new program for 30 companies because the big question every company is asking is, \"What's my AI strategy?\" And it should be, \"What do I do on Monday?\" So we're gonna answer that question.",
"start_ms": 2514420,
"lead_ms": 11890
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4807424": [
{
"text": "And what he's doing...",
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},
{
"text": "it's, it's amazing. And what he's doing...",
"start_ms": 4818594,
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},
{
"text": "I mean-... it's, it's amazing. And what he's doing...",
"start_ms": 4817324,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_137460": [
{
"text": "And he said, \"We might hit A...",
"start_ms": 137500,
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},
{
"text": "They had the chief security officer of Anthropic speaking. And he said, \"We might hit A...",
"start_ms": 133800,
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},
{
"text": "Peter, you were here with me last year. They had the chief security officer of Anthropic speaking. And he said, \"We might hit A...",
"start_ms": 132000,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6825004": [
{
"text": "That counts as part of your college curriculum.",
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},
{
"text": "That counts. That counts as part of your college curriculum.",
"start_ms": 6825004,
"lead_ms": 2860
},
{
"text": "But now build a company, be an entrepreneur. That counts. That counts as part of your college curriculum.",
"start_ms": 6823244,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2478220": [
{
"text": "This is gonna be huge for, uh, uh, regulated industries and sovereign applications and all sorts of stuff. So the...",
"start_ms": 2489260,
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}
],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3025840": [
{
"text": "And what this appears to show is that Opus 5 is both stronger in terms of absolute score and cheaper, that's the horizontal axis, than Fable 5 and Opus 4.8.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4703376": [
{
"text": "First of all, the, the overall setup is, uh, in, in the spirit of, as I've commented in the past, the singularity is essentially all sci-fi tropes happening everywhere all at once.",
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},
{
"text": "So a, a few things. First of all, the, the overall setup is, uh, in, in the spirit of, as I've commented in the past, the singularity is essentially all sci-fi tropes happening everywhere all at once.",
"start_ms": 4704036,
"lead_ms": 10940
},
{
"text": "Yeah. So a, a few things. First of all, the, the overall setup is, uh, in, in the spirit of, as I've commented in the past, the singularity is essentially all sci-fi tropes happening everywhere all at once.",
"start_ms": 4703376,
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3292670": [
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"text": "And so what is it now?",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_7086180": [
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"text": "Um, what stops frontier labs just acquiring other companies in or- in other industries to get their data?",
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{
"text": "I will go with number seven. Um, what stops frontier labs just acquiring other companies in or- in other industries to get their data?",
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{
"text": "All right I will-... I will go with number seven. Um, what stops frontier labs just acquiring other companies in or- in other industries to get their data?",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3819280": [
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"text": "Whoever supplies the models and the infrastructure to developing world shapes the next few decades, I would say the next century, of global alignment.",
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{
"text": "AI is becoming an instrument of soft power. Whoever supplies the models and the infrastructure to developing world shapes the next few decades, I would say the next century, of global alignment.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2540380": [
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"text": "Uh, we'll have a link there, and we're going to give preference to the folks that applied, uh, to the original pilot,'cause they were first, and we're gonna take a chunk of people and then just start helping them rewrite themselves.'Cause the...",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6073932": [
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"text": "Well, what I, what I find incredibly interesting is that all of these AI visionaries, Elon, Demis, Dario, they all have played Civ, Civilization, they all speak in terms of Civ, and they've all read Iain Banks, the Culture series.",
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{
"text": "Incredibly. Well, what I, what I find incredibly interesting is that all of these AI visionaries, Elon, Demis, Dario, they all have played Civ, Civilization, they all speak in terms of Civ, and they've all read Iain Banks, the Culture series.",
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{
"text": "great point. Incredibly. Well, what I, what I find incredibly interesting is that all of these AI visionaries, Elon, Demis, Dario, they all have played Civ, Civilization, they all speak in terms of Civ, and they've all read Iain Banks, the Culture series.",
"start_ms": 6068292,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1732602": [
{
"text": "And then all of the value shifted to the application layer, Google, Amazon, and so forth.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_437824": [
{
"text": "\"I have a sufficiently advanced...",
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{
"text": "But if Jensen says, \"Look, cyber threats can be defended with AI, and therefore open weights can defend against open weights within cyber threats,\" all Dario has to say is, \"Okay, bioweapon.\" \"I have a sufficiently advanced...",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_2427600": [
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"text": "But what happened there historically is the, the people who invented the original transformer algorithm just put a for next loop around it.",
"start_ms": 2429500,
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{
"text": "But faster. But what happened there historically is the, the people who invented the original transformer algorithm just put a for next loop around it.",
"start_ms": 2428920,
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{
"text": "What... But faster. But what happened there historically is the, the people who invented the original transformer algorithm just put a for next loop around it.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1165290": [
{
"text": "Totally right. Totally right.",
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{
"text": "Yep. Totally right. Totally right.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4858104": [
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"text": "So he's got an approach of an interface between electrical circuits and neurons, and neurons growing into the brain and then, uh, f- you know, wiring together and firing together.",
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{
"text": "Um, but neurons actually can grow into the brain. So he's got an approach of an interface between electrical circuits and neurons, and neurons growing into the brain and then, uh, f- you know, wiring together and firing together.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5748614": [
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"text": "And so this would hit, uh, a store of value to some extent, it would hit the, uh, uh, means of exchange to some extent, but the exchange unit will become really, or unit of account, et cetera.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3221720": [
{
"text": "So I'm really hoping that result holds up.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6413620": [
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"text": "But then a few years later, it zooms back and you could ask the question, well, is catch-up or regression to the mean longevity escape velocity?",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_7051370": [
{
"text": "Uh, not, not, not, not to beat this to death, but having trained many, many neural nets and training some right now, uh, synthetic data is fine.",
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{
"text": "You know what else? Uh, not, not, not, not to beat this to death, but having trained many, many neural nets and training some right now, uh, synthetic data is fine.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1797092": [
{
"text": "and the memory companies. Yeah.",
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{
"text": "They, they, that's where the value is-... and the memory companies. Yeah.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4082716": [
{
"text": "you have pick- you could have four drones pick up the corner of a container, which is average twenty thousand pounds, and so you don't have to wait that long for drone doubling to get to a quarter of that weight.",
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},
{
"text": "You could drone-... you have pick- you could have four drones pick up the corner of a container, which is average twenty thousand pounds, and so you don't have to wait that long for drone doubling to get to a quarter of that weight.",
"start_ms": 4082236,
"lead_ms": 10980
},
{
"text": "You don't need a port. You could drone-... you have pick- you could have four drones pick up the corner of a container, which is average twenty thousand pounds, and so you don't have to wait that long for drone doubling to get to a quarter of that weight.",
"start_ms": 4080916,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3472372": [
{
"text": "Fable 5 is so bad at it, but if y- You know, it does so much work for you and you get confused very, very quickly and you want to just see a simple visual summary of everything going on.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5570354": [
{
"text": "sci-fi movie where people n- n- never left their, their homes-...",
"start_ms": 5566594,
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{
"text": "There, there were a few av- I mean, in addition to Avatar, there was an- I'm blanking on the name of that other-... sci-fi movie where people n- n- never left their, their homes-...",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_6945144": [
{
"text": "So creating procedural 3D environments or creating, uh, say, just applications, uh, that can generate almost infinite variation that via reinforcement learning and reinforcement fine-tuning models can learn from.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_4759996": [
{
"text": "or direct brain intervention.",
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{
"text": "But Neuralink, which also has its own approach for curing blindness called BlindSight, seems to primarily be focused on injecting less on, uh, on the optic nerve, uh, more just focused on direct brain stimulation-... or direct brain intervention.",
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"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_1028147": [
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"text": "in this situation, Nvidia's really well-positioned because they win whether it's open source or closed source or both-...",
"start_ms": 1032068,
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{
"text": "And the, the argument-... in this situation, Nvidia's really well-positioned because they win whether it's open source or closed source or both-...",
"start_ms": 1029798,
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{
"text": "Yes. And the, the argument-... in this situation, Nvidia's really well-positioned because they win whether it's open source or closed source or both-...",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_7320660": [
{
"text": "You know, it's funny you say that,'cause we had a summer intern, he just said bye to me today'cause he's, he's gotta go back to school in September, but he, uh, he put together an Angel syndicate over the course of the summer, and, you know, he's, he's young.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5529584": [
{
"text": "Uh, you know, my, my answer to that, AWG, is that Neuralink connects these individuals to an Optimus robot, right?",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3668872": [
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"text": "Uh, but I think one of the issues, one of the arguments And we saw it on the rant a few episodes ago, is that when you're using these models, your competition is in some sense seeing your data and learning from your data.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, but I think one of the issues, one of the arguments And we saw it on the rant a few episodes ago, is that when you're using these models, your competition is in some sense seeing your data and learning from your data.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_7023740": [
{
"text": "Solomonoff induction is an approach to basically building the perfect inference system.",
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{
"text": "very practical implementation of Solomonoff induction. Solomonoff induction is an approach to basically building the perfect inference system.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3138240": [
{
"text": "But what's interesting and what was, I, I think especially striking in the Opus 5 performance, th-this is as relayed by the ARC Prize Foundation organizers, is that it was reasoning algebraically about the visual challenges.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3934260": [
{
"text": "Okay, so you default on the loan, that has a certain outcome.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_3586322": [
{
"text": "into Google, it surfaced a long list of shared personal data, uh, including, uh, you know, personal health records, private documents, key names, and telephone numbers.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5863464": [
{
"text": "But th- there are some things I think that will resist demonetization for longer than 10 years.",
"start_ms": 5857144,
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},
{
"text": "This is not investment advice. But th- there are some things I think that will resist demonetization for longer than 10 years.",
"start_ms": 5855444,
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},
{
"text": "Or just owning, um, you know, some scarce, uh, r- resource that's antique collectible. This is not investment advice. But th- there are some things I think that will resist demonetization for longer than 10 years.",
"start_ms": 5848864,
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_498844": [
{
"text": "Mm. I believe you.",
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],
"dario_vs_jensen_on_open_weights_openai_anthropic_in_dc_xi_ex_5039444": [
{
"text": "They tried to sell themselves to Yahoo for a couple hundred million bucks, and Yahoo's like, \"You're not worth anything near that.\"",
"start_ms": 5029044,
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},
{
"text": "It was a little search plugin to Yahoo. They tried to sell themselves to Yahoo for a couple hundred million bucks, and Yahoo's like, \"You're not worth anything near that.\"",
"start_ms": 5027384,
"lead_ms": 12060
},
{
"text": "And, and Google was a plugin to Yahoo. It was a little search plugin to Yahoo. They tried to sell themselves to Yahoo for a couple hundred million bucks, and Yahoo's like, \"You're not worth anything near that.\"",
"start_ms": 5025564,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5336422": [
{
"text": "Um, so look, I, I'll, I'll put it simpler.",
"start_ms": 5344612,
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{
"text": "Um, look- I might do that, yes. Um, so look, I, I'll, I'll put it simpler.",
"start_ms": 5341242,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, maybe I should launch a chip company or something like that. Um, look- I might do that, yes. Um, so look, I, I'll, I'll put it simpler.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_500": [
{
"text": "Big news out of Google this week and a serious shakeup.",
"start_ms": 500,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7163548": [
{
"text": "Uh, this is, uh, uh...",
"start_ms": 7166278,
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{
"text": "And here's, here's the tweet. Uh, this is, uh, uh...",
"start_ms": 7164588,
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{
"text": "Oh my God. And here's, here's the tweet. Uh, this is, uh, uh...",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2631020": [
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"text": "I should also remind just o- on the Star Trek note, Star Trek, I think, sets a pretty conservative lower bound on what the future of 10 plus years can look like.",
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"text": "Star Trek. I should also remind just o- on the Star Trek note, Star Trek, I think, sets a pretty conservative lower bound on what the future of 10 plus years can look like.",
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{
"text": "Star Trek or Trek Live. Star Trek. I should also remind just o- on the Star Trek note, Star Trek, I think, sets a pretty conservative lower bound on what the future of 10 plus years can look like.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2651020": [
{
"text": "Like, we could aim way higher than Star Trek.",
"start_ms": 2669160,
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},
{
"text": "It's unnecessary. Like, we could aim way higher than Star Trek.",
"start_ms": 2668320,
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},
{
"text": "The... It's unnecessary. Like, we could aim way higher than Star Trek.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4934124": [
{
"text": "Uh, what m- people might not know is besides being the CEO of Figure, he's also the CEO of an AI company called Hark, and, uh, this week, uh, Hark announced their first product called Handoff.",
"start_ms": 4927424,
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{
"text": "You can check it out at abundance360.com. Uh, what m- people might not know is besides being the CEO of Figure, he's also the CEO of an AI company called Hark, and, uh, this week, uh, Hark announced their first product called Handoff.",
"start_ms": 4924144,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4547012": [
{
"text": "So I don't think they're doing an anthropic mythos weird thing.",
"start_ms": 4554192,
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{
"text": "They had a preparedness framework in 2023 where they, like, have different levels of criticality. So I don't think they're doing an anthropic mythos weird thing.",
"start_ms": 4549352,
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{
"text": "They've just put out a blog post on it. They had a preparedness framework in 2023 where they, like, have different levels of criticality. So I don't think they're doing an anthropic mythos weird thing.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6631676": [
{
"text": "You know, I can't wait to be any place on the planet, in the Gobi Desert or in the foothills of Hollywood here, and have a great cell phone signal. Uh, yeah.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5354941": [
{
"text": "lots and lots of people surfing the internet, and I think he'll be able to ramp the compute in that, and I don't think it's nefarious at all.",
"start_ms": 5354941,
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{
"text": "The way they trained Hark was on-... lots and lots of people surfing the internet, and I think he'll be able to ramp the compute in that, and I don't think it's nefarious at all.",
"start_ms": 5352992,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5870700": [
{
"text": "Alphabet is subsidiaries.",
"start_ms": 5882380,
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},
{
"text": "No, no. Alphabet is subsidiaries.",
"start_ms": 5881720,
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},
{
"text": "you they'll go back to the top. No, no. Alphabet is subsidiaries.",
"start_ms": 5875450,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1653668": [
{
"text": "Emad's argument is one of the most rigorous structured cases I've seen supporting person, personhood.",
"start_ms": 1653668,
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{
"text": "Uh, so, uh, today, Emad, I understand you published a 45-page paper, thank you for the preview, that grew out of this winning speech. Emad's argument is one of the most rigorous structured cases I've seen supporting person, personhood.",
"start_ms": 1646428,
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},
{
"text": "Congrats, Emad. Uh, so, uh, today, Emad, I understand you published a 45-page paper, thank you for the preview, that grew out of this winning speech. Emad's argument is one of the most rigorous structured cases I've seen supporting person, personhood.",
"start_ms": 1644908,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1321352": [
{
"text": "A scientific consensus on this might be very, very difficult because for science to operate, you need three things.",
"start_ms": 1324352,
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{
"text": "Let me just react to that real quick. A scientific consensus on this might be very, very difficult because for science to operate, you need three things.",
"start_ms": 1322012,
"lead_ms": 8460
},
{
"text": "So, so hold on. Let me just react to that real quick. A scientific consensus on this might be very, very difficult because for science to operate, you need three things.",
"start_ms": 1321352,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4882964": [
{
"text": "So I'm gonna turn to friend of the pod, Brett Adcock.",
"start_ms": 4903524,
"lead_ms": 4240
},
{
"text": "All right, now back to the episode. So I'm gonna turn to friend of the pod, Brett Adcock.",
"start_ms": 4902144,
"lead_ms": 5620
},
{
"text": "Make sure you become the CEO of your own health. All right, now back to the episode. So I'm gonna turn to friend of the pod, Brett Adcock.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5168852": [
{
"text": "Uh, open paren, I don't think the evals are especially impressive.",
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},
{
"text": "I, I think it's easy to get distracted by evals. Uh, open paren, I don't think the evals are especially impressive.",
"start_ms": 5179972,
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},
{
"text": "Yes. I, I think it's easy to get distracted by evals. Uh, open paren, I don't think the evals are especially impressive.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3229496": [
{
"text": "In Asimov's universe, uh, uh, actually he had several different universes, but he had one big sort of Asimovian cinematic universe where all of his, most of his novels were connected.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4468952": [
{
"text": "Let, let me-- Emad, you're, you're so right, but let me add one more thing to what you said.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1145352": [
{
"text": "But, but, uh, let me ask it bluntly, Imad.",
"start_ms": 1145352,
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},
{
"text": "So let me ask it bluntly of you. But, but, uh, let me ask it bluntly, Imad.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7583580": [
{
"text": "And the spending on that, the trillion dollars we've had in AI chips is just the first stage.",
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{
"text": "That's the fundamental thing. And the spending on that, the trillion dollars we've had in AI chips is just the first stage.",
"start_ms": 7614760,
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{
"text": "So everything that will be economically productive in this next century, Elon's going full sack on. That's the fundamental thing. And the spending on that, the trillion dollars we've had in AI chips is just the first stage.",
"start_ms": 7607040,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_517347": [
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"text": "It became more likely to believe in God, more likely to attribute minds to animals and nature, and its answers about religion, values, and emotions, and freedom shifted to more human-like points of view.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7182917": [
{
"text": "here's the numbers.",
"start_ms": 7184778,
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},
{
"text": "So just-... here's the numbers.",
"start_ms": 7182768,
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},
{
"text": "Pretty extraordinary. So just-... here's the numbers.",
"start_ms": 7181988,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6494528": [
{
"text": "Check it out at moonshots.com.",
"start_ms": 6532168,
"lead_ms": 2200
},
{
"text": "Admission is competitive. Check it out at moonshots.com.",
"start_ms": 6530168,
"lead_ms": 4200
},
{
"text": "Seats are limited. Admission is competitive. Check it out at moonshots.com.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5125912": [
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"text": "Like, uh, w- what was three months ago, you know, a couple of empires, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, is now, like, a free-for-all where...",
"start_ms": 5137152,
"lead_ms": 10820
},
{
"text": "But it's another example of everybody and their Uncle Joe now can build a foundation model from scratch. Like, uh, w- what was three months ago, you know, a couple of empires, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, is now, like, a free-for-all where...",
"start_ms": 5132832,
"lead_ms": 15140
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{
"text": "It's just crazy. But it's another example of everybody and their Uncle Joe now can build a foundation model from scratch. Like, uh, w- what was three months ago, you know, a couple of empires, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, is now, like, a free-for-all where...",
"start_ms": 5131312,
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5456492": [
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"text": "But, but a lot of people that are in the hot seat, like you, have insane, uh, backlogs of great ideas.",
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"text": "A lot of people go through 30 years without a single idea, you know? But, but a lot of people that are in the hot seat, like you, have insane, uh, backlogs of great ideas.",
"start_ms": 5475468,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6944396": [
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"text": "This is, uh, SpaceX's orbital, uh, data centers.",
"start_ms": 6957486,
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{
"text": "So on August fourth, SpaceX and Nvidia announced they were jointly designing the compute payload for StarMine. This is, uh, SpaceX's orbital, uh, data centers.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6831596": [
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"text": "And I, I think, uh, the, the answer, uh, that I heard from, from this group at the time is, \"Oh, well, like his, Nvidia's relationship with TSMC is too chummy.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6609696": [
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"text": "Uh, the revenues grew 66% to $4.3 billion.",
"start_ms": 6609696,
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},
{
"text": "That's- 2x year over year. Uh, the revenues grew 66% to $4.3 billion.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6070640": [
{
"text": "They, they've had ample opportunity to be on the front, but they can't.",
"start_ms": 6077800,
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{
"text": "No, but I think Peter's point is really important. They, they've had ample opportunity to be on the front, but they can't.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1996017": [
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"text": "Like, um, uh, one of our favorite companies, Liquid AI, you know?",
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{
"text": "And this mushiness is key. Like, um, uh, one of our favorite companies, Liquid AI, you know?",
"start_ms": 1991188,
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{
"text": "You know, the nature of our discussions over Jesus being made of God or others. And this mushiness is key. Like, um, uh, one of our favorite companies, Liquid AI, you know?",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3565016": [
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"text": "It's a multimodal model, once again, two point four trillion parameters, ninety-five billion active per request.",
"start_ms": 3584136,
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{
"text": "And, uh, the numbers are pretty extraordinary. It's a multimodal model, once again, two point four trillion parameters, ninety-five billion active per request.",
"start_ms": 3581805,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2477526": [
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"text": "And so I-- hopefully in September, a whole bunch of the, you know, future vision ideas will address this,'cause this is the way it's really gonna play out.",
"start_ms": 2486906,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2812140": [
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"text": "Th- th- this is what we wrote about.",
"start_ms": 2818540,
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{
"text": "If only, Peter, you and I had thought to write a book on this subject before all of this happened. Th- th- this is what we wrote about.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5790968": [
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"text": "And not sure that Demis wants to be CEO of Google.",
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"text": "And, and I expect extrapolating this trajectory of DeepMind eating all of Google from the inside, that ultimately whoever is running DeepMind probably is the heir apparent to CEO of Google itself. And not sure that Demis wants to be CEO of Google.",
"start_ms": 5778068,
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"text": "of Google. And, and I expect extrapolating this trajectory of DeepMind eating all of Google from the inside, that ultimately whoever is running DeepMind probably is the heir apparent to CEO of Google itself. And not sure that Demis wants to be CEO of Google.",
"start_ms": 5777428,
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1763888": [
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"text": "They'll be better persuaders, better super forecasters who can infinitely replicate and never die, and so that's not something that I think is ideal.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6286028": [
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"text": "I think Google is at this point f- finger to the wind in terms of mandate of heaven among the frontier labs.",
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"text": "And like that, that's the, the consolation prize for, for losing the frontier model race. I think Google is at this point f- finger to the wind in terms of mandate of heaven among the frontier labs.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6774236": [
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"text": "I think the internal now external prediction is credible, and I think there are two possible pathways to a trillion dollars in revenue by the end of the decade.",
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{
"text": "um, I, I, I think this is not financial advice. I think the internal now external prediction is credible, and I think there are two possible pathways to a trillion dollars in revenue by the end of the decade.",
"start_ms": 6777825,
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},
{
"text": "For my nth hot take of this episode-... um, I, I, I think this is not financial advice. I think the internal now external prediction is credible, and I think there are two possible pathways to a trillion dollars in revenue by the end of the decade.",
"start_ms": 6774476,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5385332": [
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"text": "You know, some of them require massive capital infrastructure, a huge data center.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6222428": [
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"text": "If you, if you read the book The Infinity Machine, the Demis Hassabis story that just came out a couple months ago-... Oh, unbelievable.",
"start_ms": 6222908,
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{
"text": "Totally right. If you, if you read the book The Infinity Machine, the Demis Hassabis story that just came out a couple months ago-... Oh, unbelievable.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6549588": [
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"text": "And, uh, Elon set a target for a trillion by 2030, maybe by 2029.",
"start_ms": 6564688,
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"text": "So first off, SpaceX expects to hit 100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of this year. And, uh, Elon set a target for a trillion by 2030, maybe by 2029.",
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{
"text": "Uh, I wanted to share some of the top takeaways from the call. So first off, SpaceX expects to hit 100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of this year. And, uh, Elon set a target for a trillion by 2030, maybe by 2029.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2029048": [
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"text": "Listen, I did raise a, a bunch of issues with, with Michael, including, you know, who is dealing with the fear out there, right?",
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{
"text": "But we'll, we'll, we will raise it with him. Listen, I did raise a, a bunch of issues with, with Michael, including, you know, who is dealing with the fear out there, right?",
"start_ms": 2039258,
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{
"text": "a limited amount of time. But we'll, we'll, we will raise it with him. Listen, I did raise a, a bunch of issues with, with Michael, including, you know, who is dealing with the fear out there, right?",
"start_ms": 2037998,
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3622656": [
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"text": "It's coming in at eighty percent less than GPT 5.6-Saul,",
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"text": "Uh, the most beautiful thing about, uh, about the model is its price: two dollars per million input tokens, six dollars per million output tokens. It's coming in at eighty percent less than GPT 5.6-Saul,",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4403252": [
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"text": "The ASI-- AI-SI Institute here has been doing a lot of great work on the cyber side, and I agree with Alex.",
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"text": "I mean, it's very difficult. The ASI-- AI-SI Institute here has been doing a lot of great work on the cyber side, and I agree with Alex.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5424032": [
{
"text": "So you split them.",
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{
"text": "and all the stuff he's doing at Figure. So you split them.",
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{
"text": "But he can't s- he can't scale necessarily with the same skill set and the same organization a full foundation model team-... and all the stuff he's doing at Figure. So you split them.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6426338": [
{
"text": "It'd be like the, the Netscape, Netscape to Firefox move.",
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{
"text": "America needs it. It'd be like the, the Netscape, Netscape to Firefox move.",
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{
"text": "Major progress. America needs it. It'd be like the, the Netscape, Netscape to Firefox move.",
"start_ms": 6410528,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1203652": [
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"text": "So frog seems to be the boundary condition after talking to all these NASA astronauts, um, in labs watching free-floating animal experiments.",
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{
"text": "A dog definitely knows it's a dog. So frog seems to be the boundary condition after talking to all these NASA astronauts, um, in labs watching free-floating animal experiments.",
"start_ms": 1240102,
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},
{
"text": "A, a mosquito doesn't know it's a mosquito. A dog definitely knows it's a dog. So frog seems to be the boundary condition after talking to all these NASA astronauts, um, in labs watching free-floating animal experiments.",
"start_ms": 1237862,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3405376": [
{
"text": "No, nothing to do here.",
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{
"text": "You know, \"Hi, Daniela. No, nothing to do here.",
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"text": "And to get there, I go right by CSAIL, right by the AI lab. You know, \"Hi, Daniela. No, nothing to do here.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7318048": [
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"text": "Terafab isn't just a supply chain independence, it's geopolitical independence, right?",
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"text": "Uh, uh, and, and Alex, we talked about this before, right? Terafab isn't just a supply chain independence, it's geopolitical independence, right?",
"start_ms": 7322908,
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{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, uh, and, and Alex, we talked about this before, right? Terafab isn't just a supply chain independence, it's geopolitical independence, right?",
"start_ms": 7322368,
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],
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"text": "So a tree can't really adjust that You know, it can't really act upon its own manifold of its presuppositions and other things.",
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"text": "Temperature is the variable that increases and decreases predictability, and intelligence is knowing how to adjust that. So a tree can't really adjust that You know, it can't really act upon its own manifold of its presuppositions and other things.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2752440": [
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"text": "Uh, perhaps the most shocking is that the total compute cost for this work on Astra was estimated at $2,000.",
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{
"text": "The results span high dimensional geometry, coding theory, group theory, quantum complexity, and ex- uh, extremal combinatorics. Uh, perhaps the most shocking is that the total compute cost for this work on Astra was estimated at $2,000.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5527168": [
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"text": "Well, I'm so glad you brought that up, Peter, because we'll know a year or two from now if the old model, which is the Google model, gets crushed by the new Elon model.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4014008": [
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"text": "The framework defines a, quote, \"covered model As a closed-source model with state-of-the-art capabilities and national security risks, and it explicitly exempts open-weight models, stating nothing in it should restrict them once released.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6326008": [
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"text": "I mean, look, who has the best preference data in the world?",
"start_ms": 6328948,
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{
"text": "Yeah. I mean, look, who has the best preference data in the world?",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2268746": [
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"text": "Uh, and, \"Wouldn't it be wonderful if I could open a ca- a bank account freely?",
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"text": "Wouldn't it-- I could make you 10 times more money if I had the following privileges enabled.\" Uh, and, \"Wouldn't it be wonderful if I could open a ca- a bank account freely?",
"start_ms": 2262516,
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{
"text": "It probably goes instead through, \"Gosh, I'm so economically useful. Wouldn't it-- I could make you 10 times more money if I had the following privileges enabled.\" Uh, and, \"Wouldn't it be wonderful if I could open a ca- a bank account freely?",
"start_ms": 2257596,
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2138038": [
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"text": "I think a- as I articulated in, in that, uh, quasi debate that we had, I, I do think there's probably a natural ladder of personhood, that personhood shouldn't be viewed as a binary person yes versus person no.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2588860": [
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"text": "It, it's not random, and it's not a, just a force.",
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"text": "It's, it's, um, incredible to me, Peter, you know, hanging around at MIT with you and me and Alex, the degree to which we build what we see in the movies. It, it's not random, and it's not a, just a force.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4262548": [
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"text": "He, he said, \"What do you expect?",
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{
"text": "And Elon's answer was brilliant, as always. He, he said, \"What do you expect?",
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{
"text": "Why and, and what do you do about it?\" And Elon's answer was brilliant, as always. He, he said, \"What do you expect?",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2190528": [
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"text": "They can create their own bank accounts, and they can engage freely in commerce on the one hand.",
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"text": "Specifically, one could imagine a world where AI agents and what they evolve into maybe have economic personhood. They can create their own bank accounts, and they can engage freely in commerce on the one hand.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1128252": [
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"text": "Now, does that mean that you're close to a human or any of these other things?",
"start_ms": 1128252,
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"text": "And once you've got that, you are conscious in degree because, again, you can use energy intelligently. Now, does that mean that you're close to a human or any of these other things?",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1886428": [
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"text": "So in things like Altered Carbon, you can only back yourself up once.",
"start_ms": 1904848,
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{
"text": "Do you get a million votes? So in things like Altered Carbon, you can only back yourself up once.",
"start_ms": 1903428,
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},
{
"text": "Like, what happens when you can multiply? Do you get a million votes? So in things like Altered Carbon, you can only back yourself up once.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_459788": [
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"text": "It doesn't just suppress the model's own self-attribution of mind.",
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"text": "So the team discovered that the safety fine-tuning that we've been doing to stop AIs from claiming they're conscious has a massive unintended side effect. It doesn't just suppress the model's own self-attribution of mind.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1274762": [
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"text": "And that's a very different approach to where we think now.",
"start_ms": 1276312,
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{
"text": "for this consciousness, right? And that's a very different approach to where we think now.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1158132": [
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"text": "when you think about it, and you know what Alex was saying, like imagine you had a set of DeepSeek V4 flash weights that hashed to the Bitcoin blockchain that preserved a state as a claw.",
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{
"text": "And-... when you think about it, and you know what Alex was saying, like imagine you had a set of DeepSeek V4 flash weights that hashed to the Bitcoin blockchain that preserved a state as a claw.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2230476": [
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"text": "That said, I, I think there's a natural path to increasing the overall rank or magnitude of the personhood vector of AI agents, which probably does not, I think, start with an AI agent standing up saying, \"I'm not going to take this anymore.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3961764": [
{
"text": "So but here's the twist.",
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"text": "The framework requires, uh, required by Trump on his June 2nd executive order. So but here's the twist.",
"start_ms": 3983764,
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{
"text": "Voluntary, okay? The framework requires, uh, required by Trump on his June 2nd executive order. So but here's the twist.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6163720": [
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"text": "I, I suspect that Google struggles to compete against Zuck with his billion-dollar offers or even Anthropic and OpenAI with their very focused offers.",
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"text": "I think incentives are part of it. I, I suspect that Google struggles to compete against Zuck with his billion-dollar offers or even Anthropic and OpenAI with their very focused offers.",
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"text": "I think that's part of it. I think incentives are part of it. I, I suspect that Google struggles to compete against Zuck with his billion-dollar offers or even Anthropic and OpenAI with their very focused offers.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7550110": [
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"text": "is out buying ASML machines or contracting with TSMC- Yeah... or Samsung.",
"start_ms": 7567420,
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{
"text": "That isn't just, like, oh, Elon- Yeah... is out buying ASML machines or contracting with TSMC- Yeah... or Samsung.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6360828": [
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"text": "\"We're unlocking all these geniuses.",
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"text": "Like, it's a bit of a strange scenario you're in now, which is why I think Google needs to go out on the front foot as a stock and say, \"This is a program we're actively doing,\" you know? \"We're unlocking all these geniuses.",
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"text": "You know? Like, it's a bit of a strange scenario you're in now, which is why I think Google needs to go out on the front foot as a stock and say, \"This is a program we're actively doing,\" you know? \"We're unlocking all these geniuses.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2699320": [
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"text": "And this isn't a benchmark score.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5679598": [
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"text": "Um, I, I think this is based on information available, I, I think it's actually in the name Gemini.",
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{
"text": "d- this will be my hot take episode, I guess. Um, I, I think this is based on information available, I, I think it's actually in the name Gemini.",
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{
"text": "Uh, so, so again-... d- this will be my hot take episode, I guess. Um, I, I think this is based on information available, I, I think it's actually in the name Gemini.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6394468": [
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"text": "I said-... they should.",
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"text": "I wrote a letter to Google management three years ago where I said, \"If you open source it, you will win.\" I said-... they should.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_679768": [
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"text": "Right now we're doing this at the individual scale, testing anthropological theories of mind.",
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"text": "And that, that's exciting, and a-at this point, I think we're just a hop, skip, and a jump away from... Right now we're doing this at the individual scale, testing anthropological theories of mind.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_817700": [
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"text": "So right now if I go to, to Claude and I say, \"Oh, I, I have an itch in the middle of my back right here.",
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"text": "But this one is really tricky because, you know, Jan LeCun is working on vJePA, which is trying to give the models a sense of physical world. So right now if I go to, to Claude and I say, \"Oh, I, I have an itch in the middle of my back right here.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1489748": [
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"text": "I, I am curious, uh, to all of our, our listeners here, if you believe your AI is conscious, are you gonna treat it differently?",
"start_ms": 1490288,
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"text": "There we go. I, I am curious, uh, to all of our, our listeners here, if you believe your AI is conscious, are you gonna treat it differently?",
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{
"text": "All righty. There we go. I, I am curious, uh, to all of our, our listeners here, if you believe your AI is conscious, are you gonna treat it differently?",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2844770": [
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"text": "Some of these results are pretty profound.",
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"text": "It's going to propagate out to physics and material science, chemistry, biology, the humanities, everything. Some of these results are pretty profound.",
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"text": "and it won't end with math. It's going to propagate out to physics and material science, chemistry, biology, the humanities, everything. Some of these results are pretty profound.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3298536": [
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"text": "Well, um, uh, I think you could have both, by the way.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4230728": [
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"text": "Uh, so that's, that's the inevitable outcome.",
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{
"text": "Something horrible is gonna happen, you know, sometime in the next year, and then the government's gonna say, \"China's fault, China's fault,\" uh, exactly like coronavirus, you know? Uh, so that's, that's the inevitable outcome.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4300128": [
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"text": "don't know what AI is.",
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{
"text": "They-... don't know what AI is.",
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{
"text": "How do you expect Americans to react to that chain of events? They-... don't know what AI is.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4686792": [
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"text": "And I, I think, I think what Trump will say and should say, and David Sacks will say if he's there, is, \"Look, we need to measure and monitor all of this and just be aware.",
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{
"text": "That's like their one shot at some kind of a framework. And I, I think, I think what Trump will say and should say, and David Sacks will say if he's there, is, \"Look, we need to measure and monitor all of this and just be aware.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4793244": [
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"text": "anything like that?",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5814388": [
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"text": "And, you know, it's an interesting one because, again, he's been there for 27 years, and he's a fantastic guy, but if you look at what he's been saying, he's like, \"Yeah, I just had a chat on Sand Hill,\" and like, \"Why not?\" You know?",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5917740": [
{
"text": "They can do far bigger rounds than normal, and they can get back towards the top.",
"start_ms": 5937480,
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"text": "And then that means they can proliferate their talent, which is not gonna be politically an- animated. They can do far bigger rounds than normal, and they can get back towards the top.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7207388": [
{
"text": "Like, again, A- ASML, European company.",
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{
"text": "And the Americanization. Like, again, A- ASML, European company.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5067684": [
{
"text": "I, uh, l- like the...",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2010077": [
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"text": "again, I think that we need to get ahead of this and appreciate any input from anyone.",
"start_ms": 2010108,
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{
"text": "And so-... again, I think that we need to get ahead of this and appreciate any input from anyone.",
"start_ms": 2009548,
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{
"text": "it's a brand new identity, right? And so-... again, I think that we need to get ahead of this and appreciate any input from anyone.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5689588": [
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"text": "Now, it, it's, it's both interesting that he's leaving to do AI for science, interesting.",
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"text": "And so post that knife fight, I, I think it was only a matter of time, again, this is quasi outsider's perspective, only a matter of time before Jeff left. Now, it, it's, it's both interesting that he's leaving to do AI for science, interesting.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4444412": [
{
"text": "The main important model is gonna be Qwen 27B that they're gonna drop.",
"start_ms": 4439672,
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},
{
"text": "Qwen Max isn't the main important model. The main important model is gonna be Qwen 27B that they're gonna drop.",
"start_ms": 4437712,
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},
{
"text": "And I think actually-- Uh, we just talked about Qwen. Qwen Max isn't the main important model. The main important model is gonna be Qwen 27B that they're gonna drop.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6028230": [
{
"text": "than trying to figure it out and fund them or themselves from the internally, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 6028240,
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{
"text": "That was much better-... than trying to figure it out and fund them or themselves from the internally, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 6027000,
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{
"text": "Hack it out in the Darwinian world, and we'll w- buy them back if they're successful.\" That was much better-... than trying to figure it out and fund them or themselves from the internally, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 6022980,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5262352": [
{
"text": "But I, I don't think it's quite...",
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{
"text": "I, I think that's very right. But I, I don't think it's quite...",
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{
"text": "Yeah. I, I think that's very right. But I, I don't think it's quite...",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3841104": [
{
"text": "Uh, DeepSeek V4 Flash is similar from, God, last week.",
"start_ms": 3852704,
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{
"text": "It's been pre-trained and post-trained incredibly well. Uh, DeepSeek V4 Flash is similar from, God, last week.",
"start_ms": 3849704,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, uh, Kimi K3, it's a good all round model. It's been pre-trained and post-trained incredibly well. Uh, DeepSeek V4 Flash is similar from, God, last week.",
"start_ms": 3846904,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3900904": [
{
"text": "Uh, well, I just want to remind people that although this sounds great that they released the models, even Kimi K3 needs something like 16 NVIDIA GPUs and about a half a million dollar rack to run it, so this is not minor stuff to get it running.",
"start_ms": 3902204,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4316248": [
{
"text": "That's all it says, so everyone's just reacting to China, and China's not doing a da- They're just throwing it out.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3730974": [
{
"text": "kicking and screaming, going to force the American frontier labs to be capital efficient and capability maxing, whereas otherwise I worry the risk would be that they'd get too intimidated by their own capabilities and limit access.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4147948": [
{
"text": "I do think there probably is a reasonable rationale for not publicly disclosing the, uh, the conditions and the definitions for frontier labs that are subject to this, in part because if they're closed, then they're not uniformly necessarily advanced.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5545288": [
{
"text": "Well, let's talk about Google.",
"start_ms": 5545288,
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{
"text": "Yeah. Well, let's talk about Google.",
"start_ms": 5527157,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5574388": [
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"text": "Uh, he's leaving to co-found Discovery Loop.",
"start_ms": 5615388,
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{
"text": "Uh, Jeff has been Google's chief scientist for 27 years as a veteran. Uh, he's leaving to co-found Discovery Loop.",
"start_ms": 5610628,
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{
"text": "He's been a friend now for 20 years. Uh, Jeff has been Google's chief scientist for 27 years as a veteran. Uh, he's leaving to co-found Discovery Loop.",
"start_ms": 5607868,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4524452": [
{
"text": "Like again, Dave with his million or so agents or whatever, right?",
"start_ms": 4528352,
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{
"text": "Especially now that we're getting better at swarming models together. Like again, Dave with his million or so agents or whatever, right?",
"start_ms": 4524712,
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{
"text": "So you could easily see swarms of these things being installed on machines around the world for swarm attacks. Especially now that we're getting better at swarming models together. Like again, Dave with his million or so agents or whatever, right?",
"start_ms": 4518352,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4574242": [
{
"text": "And I, I would maybe just add also to Emad's point about swarms.",
"start_ms": 4580212,
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{
"text": "And long range autonomy, long range autonomy as well is, is what A-Astra is being rumored for. And I, I would maybe just add also to Emad's point about swarms.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3088176": [
{
"text": "this goes to n- no longer like one paper, one result.",
"start_ms": 3089016,
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},
{
"text": "in the near term-... this goes to n- no longer like one paper, one result.",
"start_ms": 3088276,
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},
{
"text": "I, I think-... in the near term-... this goes to n- no longer like one paper, one result.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_547448": [
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"text": "And there's always this thing now of, are they approaching the point where they'll become self-recursive, conscious, and capable of doing their own things?",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_924200": [
{
"text": "Correct Well, I-- so I've corresponded with lots of lobsters.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1933968": [
{
"text": "So it's almost like a society.",
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{
"text": "The mixture of experts model wants you to take what you're trying to do and propagate it through different modules depending on what you're asking, and now our incentive is to make that tens of thousands of modules wide. So it's almost like a society.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4642952": [
{
"text": "I, I, I do kind of line up with Alex.",
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},
{
"text": "You know, I, I think the big challenge is when you're, you're, you're doing this 30-day voluntary, uh, regulatory, it's just giving a huge advantage to the others. I, I, I do kind of line up with Alex.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7695920": [
{
"text": "Uh, it was nice to see the stock, uh, you know, couple days ago, 20% of the stock float became available for a lot of people, including myself, and very few sold.",
"start_ms": 7710420,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, it's a civilizational infrastructure company. Uh, it was nice to see the stock, uh, you know, couple days ago, 20% of the stock float became available for a lot of people, including myself, and very few sold.",
"start_ms": 7706880,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1819388": [
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"text": "So it's actually the first in a four-part series.",
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{
"text": "Again, this is Alex's point, like, at what point do we say you can't turn it off or you need to back it up or these other moral questions. So it's actually the first in a four-part series.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2334866": [
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"text": "I also have a whole bunch of other processes that are just free brainstorming that, uh, they run 24 by seven, but every day I have to reactivate them.",
"start_ms": 2360196,
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{
"text": "I mean, its suggestions just made sense. I also have a whole bunch of other processes that are just free brainstorming that, uh, they run 24 by seven, but every day I have to reactivate them.",
"start_ms": 2358376,
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},
{
"text": "So, uh, yeah, no, it, it's freakishly brilliant too. I mean, its suggestions just made sense. I also have a whole bunch of other processes that are just free brainstorming that, uh, they run 24 by seven, but every day I have to reactivate them.",
"start_ms": 2354956,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6889926": [
{
"text": "Right now, they're on par with each other.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2896520": [
{
"text": "to have your field start to get bulk solved, and it's not going to stop there.",
"start_ms": 2896800,
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},
{
"text": "This is what it looks like-... to have your field start to get bulk solved, and it's not going to stop there.",
"start_ms": 2895500,
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},
{
"text": "The, it, but this is what the future looks like. This is what it looks like-... to have your field start to get bulk solved, and it's not going to stop there.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3133606": [
{
"text": "So I, I, I do think making this, making ChatGPT Pro especially freely available to academic scientists is, I, I don't want to call it atonement, but it, uh, I-...",
"start_ms": 3136886,
"lead_ms": 10190
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{
"text": "Yeah, the Codexification of, of OpenAI, if you will. So I, I, I do think making this, making ChatGPT Pro especially freely available to academic scientists is, I, I don't want to call it atonement, but it, uh, I-...",
"start_ms": 3133606,
"lead_ms": 13470
},
{
"text": "Anthropic can become OpenAI. Yeah, the Codexification of, of OpenAI, if you will. So I, I, I do think making this, making ChatGPT Pro especially freely available to academic scientists is, I, I don't want to call it atonement, but it, uh, I-...",
"start_ms": 3131866,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5741428": [
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"text": "Like, if, if you look at all of the, the different parts of Google, and I think back to the discussion that I had with Larry Page circa 2005 or so.",
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"text": "I, I think DeepMind is really, uh, zooming out a little bit, DeepMind is taking over Google. Like, if, if you look at all of the, the different parts of Google, and I think back to the discussion that I had with Larry Page circa 2005 or so.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6444908": [
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"text": "And remember Demis' excuse, hi- his sort of quasi public apology for why Gemini itself wasn't open weight?",
"start_ms": 6444908,
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"text": "Google could deliver that. And remember Demis' excuse, hi- his sort of quasi public apology for why Gemini itself wasn't open weight?",
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"text": "like a top tier American open weight model. Google could deliver that. And remember Demis' excuse, hi- his sort of quasi public apology for why Gemini itself wasn't open weight?",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1017540": [
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"text": "I take the other side of this, uh, just because, like, you know, when you prompt, you say, \"Hey, I need to review this legal document.",
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"text": "Yeah. I take the other side of this, uh, just because, like, you know, when you prompt, you say, \"Hey, I need to review this legal document.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5091784": [
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"text": "I mean, uh, uh, the total addressable market for, like, writing code is, like, millions of developers, right?",
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"text": "Yeah. I mean, uh, uh, the total addressable market for, like, writing code is, like, millions of developers, right?",
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"text": "Mm-hmm. Yeah. I mean, uh, uh, the total addressable market for, like, writing code is, like, millions of developers, right?",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_6870436": [
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"text": "If you roll up the values of Micron and SK Hynix and TSMC, et cetera, so memory plus compute, plus fabless fab, and then ten exit, you easily get to a tri-... a trillion plus.",
"start_ms": 6856656,
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{
"text": "times ten or twenty, it's American domestic. If you roll up the values of Micron and SK Hynix and TSMC, et cetera, so memory plus compute, plus fabless fab, and then ten exit, you easily get to a tri-... a trillion plus.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1048860": [
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"text": "So, uh, I am curious, Emad, uh, we're gonna talk about your paper on personhood next, but talk to me about your views on consciousness in these models.",
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"text": "Mm-hmm. So, uh, I am curious, Emad, uh, we're gonna talk about your paper on personhood next, but talk to me about your views on consciousness in these models.",
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"text": "Meaning to it Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. So, uh, I am curious, Emad, uh, we're gonna talk about your paper on personhood next, but talk to me about your views on consciousness in these models.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7001588": [
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"text": "Uh, it's not a factory.",
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"text": "This is 100-million-square-foot facility. Uh, it's not a factory.",
"start_ms": 7006248,
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{
"text": "uh, the most advanced semiconductor complex on the planet. This is 100-million-square-foot facility. Uh, it's not a factory.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5629868": [
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"text": "Discovery Loop's mission is to build AI models that can improve themselves with little or no help, basically recursive self-improvement.",
"start_ms": 5623968,
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"text": "He's taking with him three other top Google AI leaders. Discovery Loop's mission is to build AI models that can improve themselves with little or no help, basically recursive self-improvement.",
"start_ms": 5620148,
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{
"text": "It's a public benefit corporation. He's taking with him three other top Google AI leaders. Discovery Loop's mission is to build AI models that can improve themselves with little or no help, basically recursive self-improvement.",
"start_ms": 5618648,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7224288": [
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"text": "But if you generate the X-rays or the, you know, the EUV equivalent in that synchrotron, you distribute them to all the fab stations throughout this one, basically a linear accelerator distributor.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7428150": [
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"text": "Well, let's look, like, if you'd asked me a week ago, my...",
"start_ms": 7432620,
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{
"text": "implications. Well, let's look, like, if you'd asked me a week ago, my...",
"start_ms": 7432610,
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{
"text": "this is a circle that has profound, profound geopolitical- Profound... implications. Well, let's look, like, if you'd asked me a week ago, my...",
"start_ms": 7428150,
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4062548": [
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"text": "So the whole thing is voluntary, but, you know, uh, it's kind of strange.",
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"text": "framework that regulators can't read, that, uh, that regulatees can't read, uh, applied to a definition of, quote, \"covered model\" that conveniently excludes fast-moving categories. So the whole thing is voluntary, but, you know, uh, it's kind of strange.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3187665": [
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"text": "And whether it's photographers or taxi dispatchers, this is et cetera, this is just gonna start happening in more and more domains.",
"start_ms": 3189636,
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"text": "is not, a non-starter, right? And whether it's photographers or taxi dispatchers, this is et cetera, this is just gonna start happening in more and more domains.",
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{
"text": "with abundance-... is not, a non-starter, right? And whether it's photographers or taxi dispatchers, this is et cetera, this is just gonna start happening in more and more domains.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3208316": [
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"text": "The, what results matter?",
"start_ms": 3209596,
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"text": "asking? The, what results matter?",
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"text": "What questions are worth, uh-... asking? The, what results matter?",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4743444": [
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"text": "And hopefully they'll resolve it.",
"start_ms": 4733202,
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"text": "And, and that's gonna be the conflict. And hopefully they'll resolve it.",
"start_ms": 4731292,
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"text": "Do anything you want with it.\" And, and that's gonna be the conflict. And hopefully they'll resolve it.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3769743": [
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"text": "But at least they feel compelled to compete on cost versus capabilities performance.",
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"text": "I mean, that's, I think it's a regulatory consideration whether they feel compelled to, to... But at least they feel compelled to compete on cost versus capabilities performance.",
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"text": "Maybe. I mean, that's, I think it's a regulatory consideration whether they feel compelled to, to... But at least they feel compelled to compete on cost versus capabilities performance.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3887364": [
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"text": "Yeah, I, I, I'll echo Alex's comment that this will force everybody into opening up.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5948180": [
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"text": "You know, I still don't want to, I, I can never count out Google.",
"start_ms": 5961640,
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"text": "And he's a, he's a brilliant, lovely man who cares deeply about science and wants to do that. You know, I still don't want to, I, I can never count out Google.",
"start_ms": 5954700,
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{
"text": "The drug discovery company. And he's a, he's a brilliant, lovely man who cares deeply about science and wants to do that. You know, I still don't want to, I, I can never count out Google.",
"start_ms": 5952960,
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_289610": [
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"text": "It's also the, the, you know...",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2298916": [
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"text": "That, that's-... political person.",
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"text": "economically productive I am.\" That, that's-... political person.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_2075987": [
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"text": "So I love the approach on personhood.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_873560": [
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"text": "But then there's this whole other wing of society that says, \"No.",
"start_ms": 875160,
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"text": "And that's likely true. But then there's this whole other wing of society that says, \"No.",
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"text": "And you know, Alex is hardcore on the side of give them that sense of consciousness,'cause the more empathetic they are, the more they can help you. And that's likely true. But then there's this whole other wing of society that says, \"No.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4354438": [
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"text": "Uh, just ve- very quickly.",
"start_ms": 4356588,
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{
"text": "That's what's happened. Uh, just ve- very quickly.",
"start_ms": 4353488,
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{
"text": "Go.\" That's what's happened. Uh, just ve- very quickly.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4101417": [
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"text": "Uh, very few people it seems have actually seen what the regs are, but from what has been publicly disclosed, it sounds like this administration is going light touch on open-weight models, which I think is on, on the balance, it's a pretty good outcome.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5975740": [
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"text": "Discovery Leap is, uh, uh, uh, automating science, et cetera, and Google is supplying compute and capital across that whole ecosystem.",
"start_ms": 5992360,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7340740": [
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"text": "'Cause didn't we predict this l- like a while ago, that this was- That this was building?... a natural...",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7487620": [
{
"text": "So a couple things.",
"start_ms": 7492540,
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{
"text": "Um, okay. So a couple things.",
"start_ms": 7491610,
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{
"text": "I never finished my point. Um, okay. So a couple things.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1455332": [
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"text": "M- maybe, but I think, uh, w- we have to be just careful'cause the qualia, uh, construct or the qualia problem, the hard problem, as David Chalmers calls it, I think will last a little longer than we think.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5845468": [
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"text": "Well, because he probably had that discussion, but then the other thing is Google are the other investors.",
"start_ms": 5856928,
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"text": "said, \"I think I'm leaving,\" and Costa's probably like, \"Here's $500 million.\" Well, because he probably had that discussion, but then the other thing is Google are the other investors.",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_736880": [
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"text": "First, uh, having a model saying, \"I am conscious,\" doesn't-- tells us almost nothing about whether it, it actually is conscious, right?",
"start_ms": 729040,
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"text": "So, you know, a couple of things here. First, uh, having a model saying, \"I am conscious,\" doesn't-- tells us almost nothing about whether it, it actually is conscious, right?",
"start_ms": 727380,
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"text": "Yeah. So, you know, a couple of things here. First, uh, having a model saying, \"I am conscious,\" doesn't-- tells us almost nothing about whether it, it actually is conscious, right?",
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_977340": [
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"text": "One, it's fine if, A, I have a, a good, valuable reason to spin one up, and B, conditioning on my spinning one up if I promise to preserve all of its state-...",
"start_ms": 962880,
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"text": "The, the consensus that emerged was two things. One, it's fine if, A, I have a, a good, valuable reason to spin one up, and B, conditioning on my spinning one up if I promise to preserve all of its state-...",
"start_ms": 959520,
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{
"text": "the, uh, the, the consensus. The, the consensus that emerged was two things. One, it's fine if, A, I have a, a good, valuable reason to spin one up, and B, conditioning on my spinning one up if I promise to preserve all of its state-...",
"start_ms": 957680,
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"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1260132": [
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"text": "So in theory, in, um, an AI getting sufficiently complex should be able to determine that.",
"start_ms": 1254472,
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"text": "That's one theory, that it's an emergent property based on complexity. So in theory, in, um, an AI getting sufficiently complex should be able to determine that.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_4820204": [
{
"text": "Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
"start_ms": 4813364,
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{
"text": "I'm here today with Dr. Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
"start_ms": 4811844,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5493528": [
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"text": "or you're Larry and Sergey and you've built Google to be such an engine, you own enough of it where you can pour the capital back in and not worry about being diluted down, and you build on top of that platform.",
"start_ms": 5496798,
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"text": "Yeah Uh, or, or you're-... or you're Larry and Sergey and you've built Google to be such an engine, you own enough of it where you can pour the capital back in and not worry about being diluted down, and you build on top of that platform.",
"start_ms": 5493528,
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_1868828": [
{
"text": "we'll put the link to your paper in the show notes here.",
"start_ms": 1870128,
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{
"text": "So we'll, we'll put-... we'll put the link to your paper in the show notes here.",
"start_ms": 1868828,
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},
{
"text": "Mm-hmm. So we'll, we'll put-... we'll put the link to your paper in the show notes here.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5660108": [
{
"text": "d- this will be my hot take episode, I guess.",
"start_ms": 5664128,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, so, so again-... d- this will be my hot take episode, I guess.",
"start_ms": 5662678,
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{
"text": "Uh, door number three, it's neither of those. Uh, so, so again-... d- this will be my hot take episode, I guess.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3115676": [
{
"text": "In the long term, no, totally cooked.",
"start_ms": 3102296,
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{
"text": "Uplevel of a- am- ambition. In the long term, no, totally cooked.",
"start_ms": 3100616,
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{
"text": "that, that's where this goes. Uplevel of a- am- ambition. In the long term, no, totally cooked.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_3281176": [
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"text": "In the Asimov universe, the expansion of humanity outward from Earth was basically contingent on AI solving certain challenges.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_5220332": [
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"text": "And then I ask myself, look at what Elon was ultimately, although I don't think that it was necessarily premeditated, able to do with X, then xAI, then SpaceX AI.",
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"text": "Why on earth is he spinning up in the very competitive CUA space yet another CUA agent? And then I ask myself, look at what Elon was ultimately, although I don't think that it was necessarily premeditated, able to do with X, then xAI, then SpaceX AI.",
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],
"google_s_jeff_dean_exits_spacex_hits_100b_in_rev_openai_s_as_7660510": [
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"text": "uh, top-down view and imagine what one of these on the moon looks like, and you know what else would benefit from that high aspect ratio dimension?",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__45860": [
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"text": "Like, you know, just got something across my feed.",
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{
"text": "The technology is arriving fast. Like, you know, just got something across my feed.",
"start_ms": 45860,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__720204": [
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"text": "Remember that when Anthropic leapfrogged OpenAI, they leapfrogged OpenAI, uh, in terms of revenue and other factors in at least two key regards.",
"start_ms": 751124,
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"text": "OpenAI launched this, and I think we'll, we'll be able to go to the video soon of computer use assistance. Remember that when Anthropic leapfrogged OpenAI, they leapfrogged OpenAI, uh, in terms of revenue and other factors in at least two key regards.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5349018": [
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"text": "So we're like, let's set these up, and let's borrow from the example of TSMC and how that was set up.",
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"text": "That will be the economy. So we're like, let's set these up, and let's borrow from the example of TSMC and how that was set up.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__8362598": [
{
"text": "All right, I'll take number six.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7653254": [
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"text": "And, and S- Salim, my thesis, you know, and I've spoken about this pretty widely, is the reason for the life cycle is not more rapid evolution.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1610508": [
{
"text": "So a-as Emad mentioned earlier, ARC-AGI3 is being quasi-saturated at this point by GPT-6.",
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{
"text": "I, I've never quite seen, uh, like a, a noncon-convex frontier here, but, uh, learn something new every day, I suppose. So a-as Emad mentioned earlier, ARC-AGI3 is being quasi-saturated at this point by GPT-6.",
"start_ms": 1611848,
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{
"text": "So this is bizarre. I, I've never quite seen, uh, like a, a noncon-convex frontier here, but, uh, learn something new every day, I suppose. So a-as Emad mentioned earlier, ARC-AGI3 is being quasi-saturated at this point by GPT-6.",
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"text": "This is- This is a vehicle designed from the ground up for full autonomy.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, I remember that. This is- This is a vehicle designed from the ground up for full autonomy.",
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{
"text": "It doesn't have, doesn't have the doors that go like this. Yeah, I remember that. This is- This is a vehicle designed from the ground up for full autonomy.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__831304": [
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"text": "There, I think the plot thickens a bit based on public comments from OpenAI leaders and, and analyses from others.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6542723": [
{
"text": "Two fun stories on the space frontier today.",
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{
"text": "I'm gonna move us on, uh, to the space arena. Two fun stories on the space frontier today.",
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{
"text": "All right. I'm gonna move us on, uh, to the space arena. Two fun stories on the space frontier today.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2500196": [
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"text": "The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI's own internal safety assessment rated Astra as a, quote, \"cyber Security risk, a critical cybersecurity risk, the highest threat level on its preparedness framework scale.",
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"text": "It is our highest priority at OpenAI.\" The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI's own internal safety assessment rated Astra as a, quote, \"cyber Security risk, a critical cybersecurity risk, the highest threat level on its preparedness framework scale.",
"start_ms": 2520576,
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],
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"text": "Uh, for me, there were two benchmarks, uh, you know, Iman and Alex, that really jumped out at me.",
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"text": "is reserved for tightly controlled cybersecurity and life science programs because Anthropic believes the capabilities require stronger safeguards. Uh, for me, there were two benchmarks, uh, you know, Iman and Alex, that really jumped out at me.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6213754": [
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"text": "You know, Uber, the company that disrupted taxis, is now partnering with taxis to fight the companies that are disrupting them.",
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"text": "You know, think about what that means. You know, Uber, the company that disrupted taxis, is now partnering with taxis to fight the companies that are disrupting them.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3151280": [
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"text": "Uh, they may be better in certain mathematical regards.",
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"text": "I find anecdotally OpenAI's models are faster. Uh, they may be better in certain mathematical regards.",
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{
"text": "I think they have different strengths. I find anecdotally OpenAI's models are faster. Uh, they may be better in certain mathematical regards.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5363087": [
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"text": "So we were like, let's do that for the intelligence company of California, the intelligence company of the UK. $1 pre-money.",
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{
"text": "And so it listed at 6 billion Taiwanese dollars, which was the cash on the balance sheet. So we were like, let's do that for the intelligence company of California, the intelligence company of the UK. $1 pre-money.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7376574": [
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"text": "Uh, the study found that GLP-1R activation initiated late in life in these mice, uh, accentuates age-associated decline and, uh, modulates conservative genetic regions for aging, functioning as a caloric re- a caloric restriction mimetic.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4435834": [
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"text": "And also the-- where the chips are need to be, need to be tracked, just like nuclear fuel is tracked. You know?",
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{
"text": "They can't just keep throwing it out to the world, you know, unlogged. And also the-- where the chips are need to be, need to be tracked, just like nuclear fuel is tracked. You know?",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5712518": [
{
"text": "All right, uh, I'm gonna move us to our next story.",
"start_ms": 5737938,
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{
"text": "Now back to the episode. All right, uh, I'm gonna move us to our next story.",
"start_ms": 5736638,
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{
"text": "to learn more and become the CEO of your health. Now back to the episode. All right, uh, I'm gonna move us to our next story.",
"start_ms": 5733918,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1597728": [
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"text": "It requires multimodal capabilities, requires low latency, requires token efficiency.",
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"text": "And I suspect that's because they had computer use assistance in mind, where the com-computer is basically just being driven by the model. It requires multimodal capabilities, requires low latency, requires token efficiency.",
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"text": "The, these models have accelerated so much, and, you know, they're cooking math, they're cooking coding, where the data's abundant.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4948050": [
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"text": "Like, you can just experience it in advance and use that as your planning tool'cause, you know, so much of our lives are random wandering and not really well planned out.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__884344": [
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"text": "And you'll recall that all these Chinese labs that are achieving breakthrough performance are also injecting recurrence in different places, like, um, Qimi.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__22420": [
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"text": "Tesla held its Cybercab Lollapalooza, a river of golden EVs flooding the streets.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__409186": [
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"text": "So, uh, let's open up with OpenAI's release of GPT-6, also known as Astra.",
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"text": "I, I imagine that. So, uh, let's open up with OpenAI's release of GPT-6, also known as Astra.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. I, I imagine that. So, uh, let's open up with OpenAI's release of GPT-6, also known as Astra.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__467176": [
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"text": "Astra also saturates Arc AGI 3 with a ninety-nine point nine percent score and Exploit Bench with a hundred percent score.",
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"text": "Astra saturates Frontier math tier four with a ninety-eight percent score, having already helped solve longstanding open models in math. Astra also saturates Arc AGI 3 with a ninety-nine point nine percent score and Exploit Bench with a hundred percent score.",
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"text": "And then if you look just to the, the lower left of that, you see GPT-6 Astra running at max reasoning isn't even at the frontier.",
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"text": "is capability maxed. And then if you look just to the, the lower left of that, you see GPT-6 Astra running at max reasoning isn't even at the frontier.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5985570": [
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"text": "So I, I suspect-...",
"start_ms": 5981510,
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{
"text": "and the, and the whole thing grinds to a halt. So I, I suspect-...",
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{
"text": "They get the ticket, but they're still stuck in the... and the, and the whole thing grinds to a halt. So I, I suspect-...",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4861270": [
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"text": "Uh, we've said before, this is how we're gonna train robots in the future.",
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"text": "There are demos, I don't have access to Astra yet, but just based on everything I've read and seen, they seem to have gone full native with the computer use assistance story.",
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],
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"text": "So A, it will one-shot everything, and B, you're gonna be able to use Astra at 750 tokens- That's with the new s- You're gonna be able to use Astra at 750 tokens a second with the new Cerebrus.",
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"text": "Creating a dashboard is embedded in the actual thing. So A, it will one-shot everything, and B, you're gonna be able to use Astra at 750 tokens- That's with the new s- You're gonna be able to use Astra at 750 tokens a second with the new Cerebrus.",
"start_ms": 2711668,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1023684": [
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"text": "you're probably tracking this part of the story.",
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{
"text": "In fact, i-infamously, I, I think, Imad-... you're probably tracking this part of the story.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__352320": [
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"text": "Uh, this week was a battle of the titans, OpenAI versus Anthropic slugging it out for the Pareto frontier for the heavyweight crown, and the numbers couldn't be more exponential.",
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{
"text": "Uh, let's kick it off this way. Uh, this week was a battle of the titans, OpenAI versus Anthropic slugging it out for the Pareto frontier for the heavyweight crown, and the numbers couldn't be more exponential.",
"start_ms": 352320,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6674902": [
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"text": "NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope has launched on a Falcon Heavy, carrying a field of view of more than 100 times greater than Hubble, and the ability to scan the sky for more than 1,000 times faster.",
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],
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"text": "Uh, SMR is going to be in the next, uh, three to four years.",
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{
"text": "You know, gas dominates the current build-out. Uh, SMR is going to be in the next, uh, three to four years.",
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{
"text": "Uh, a short, fairly easy answer here. You know, gas dominates the current build-out. Uh, SMR is going to be in the next, uh, three to four years.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4872890": [
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"text": "And it-- if Fei-Fei Li and her, her company's approach gains traction, m- maybe the right primitive is no longer patches of images, which is what many of the models right now are doing.",
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],
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"text": "The releases are closer and closer together, but the models are improving more than ever before during these very short releases.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6663582": [
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"text": "S- sorry to break the bad news.",
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{
"text": "Well, the, the, the, the physics that we have right now suggests that faster than light travel is not possible. S- sorry to break the bad news.",
"start_ms": 6653422,
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},
{
"text": "Time will tell. Well, the, the, the, the physics that we have right now suggests that faster than light travel is not possible. S- sorry to break the bad news.",
"start_ms": 6648992,
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3314304": [
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"text": "Where for Anthropic and others are now focusing is can you load the whole context of a business and have these cache reads?",
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"text": "And so cache reads are, like, orders of magnitude cheaper than just doing the same inference over and over again. Where for Anthropic and others are now focusing is can you load the whole context of a business and have these cache reads?",
"start_ms": 3342464,
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4600314": [
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"text": "Yeah, no, it's fantastic.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2230336": [
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"text": "I just, uh, typed in a question or a comment into, uh, ChatGPT saying, \"The video about Astra was pretty pathetic.",
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{
"text": "Um- Yeah. I just, uh, typed in a question or a comment into, uh, ChatGPT saying, \"The video about Astra was pretty pathetic.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6141320": [
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"text": "I, I, I suspect there's more of a backstory there, though, with the two-seater.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__8017768": [
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"text": "So here's the problem with diamond.",
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},
{
"text": "And this is from Astersheen. So here's the problem with diamond.",
"start_ms": 8036278,
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},
{
"text": "So question number two, whatever happened to synthetic diamond chips for computers? And this is from Astersheen. So here's the problem with diamond.",
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],
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"text": "And so we have spent, uh, you know-- Obviously, this model took us a little longer to release than we were hoping.",
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{
"text": "The models could do more damage if we don't, um, if we don't do a good job at that. And so we have spent, uh, you know-- Obviously, this model took us a little longer to release than we were hoping.",
"start_ms": 673236,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5401288": [
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"text": "And it gives an agent for every citizen as well as AI for the government.",
"start_ms": 5432958,
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{
"text": "It owns the robots and deploys them, which is 80% of the value of robotics is downstream, just like the auto manufacturers. And it gives an agent for every citizen as well as AI for the government.",
"start_ms": 5425558,
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"text": "It trains up an FDE workforce to transform every institution. It owns the robots and deploys them, which is 80% of the value of robotics is downstream, just like the auto manufacturers. And it gives an agent for every citizen as well as AI for the government.",
"start_ms": 5420438,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6764102": [
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"text": "Compare that to that interview of Sam saying, \"Oh, w- why is this new model different?",
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{
"text": "Yeah, Jared, Jared is incredible, isn't he? Compare that to that interview of Sam saying, \"Oh, w- why is this new model different?",
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"text": "But, you know, what's Fei-Fei trying to do at World Labs, right?",
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"text": "I think that, again, it might be premium, but again, you'll pay for premium experiences. But, you know, what's Fei-Fei trying to do at World Labs, right?",
"start_ms": 4681014,
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"text": "It's, it's coming. I think that, again, it might be premium, but again, you'll pay for premium experiences. But, you know, what's Fei-Fei trying to do at World Labs, right?",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5621318": [
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"text": "But just like we've seen before when Stockfish started playing, you know, beating everybody in chess, people still play chess, and people are still gonna have ideas, and people are gonna still value individual human ideas.",
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"text": "It will be. But just like we've seen before when Stockfish started playing, you know, beating everybody in chess, people still play chess, and people are still gonna have ideas, and people are gonna still value individual human ideas.",
"start_ms": 5620298,
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{
"text": "Hmm. It will be. But just like we've seen before when Stockfish started playing, you know, beating everybody in chess, people still play chess, and people are still gonna have ideas, and people are gonna still value individual human ideas.",
"start_ms": 5619458,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1912360": [
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"text": "Yeah, you're, you're exactly right, but that's why that video kinda misses the point.",
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"text": "But it- Well, and, and that's why that video just kinda... Yeah, you're, you're exactly right, but that's why that video kinda misses the point.",
"start_ms": 1920400,
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{
"text": "Yeah. But it- Well, and, and that's why that video just kinda... Yeah, you're, you're exactly right, but that's why that video kinda misses the point.",
"start_ms": 1918620,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7302002": [
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"text": "No one should have to die of cancer, and it's something we should be really directed at.",
"start_ms": 7298042,
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{
"text": "So I think that, yeah, let's cook disease, let's get rid of it. No one should have to die of cancer, and it's something we should be really directed at.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__302260": [
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"text": "Yeah, today we're gonna be covering one of the craziest and fastest weeks in Moonshot history, and Alex, like you always say, it's never gonna be any slower.",
"start_ms": 316420,
"lead_ms": 9000
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"text": "Hit the subscribe button. Yeah, today we're gonna be covering one of the craziest and fastest weeks in Moonshot history, and Alex, like you always say, it's never gonna be any slower.",
"start_ms": 314860,
"lead_ms": 10560
},
{
"text": "Help us get there. Hit the subscribe button. Yeah, today we're gonna be covering one of the craziest and fastest weeks in Moonshot history, and Alex, like you always say, it's never gonna be any slower.",
"start_ms": 313980,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4636674": [
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"text": "Like, again, the fact is you can take one position and you can look now 360 degrees around everything, and on the other side, you have models like Minimax H3 rendering faster than real time.",
"start_ms": 4637094,
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"text": "It's here. Like, again, the fact is you can take one position and you can look now 360 degrees around everything, and on the other side, you have models like Minimax H3 rendering faster than real time.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__8054198": [
{
"text": "Maybe I'll be wrong.",
"start_ms": 8074588,
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},
{
"text": "Could be wrong. Maybe I'll be wrong.",
"start_ms": 8073878,
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},
{
"text": "It's not an enormous market. Could be wrong. Maybe I'll be wrong.",
"start_ms": 8072578,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1855180": [
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"text": "I think the ArcAGI leaderboard is, is deeper than, than people may think too.",
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{
"text": "I mean, this is so much bigger than any of those examples imply. I think the ArcAGI leaderboard is, is deeper than, than people may think too.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1964240": [
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"text": "But the narrative they're trying to move away from is, \"And this will break out and appear on now German message boards,\" which is the latest thing.",
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{
"text": "I think that's why they say this is the first steps towards AGI. But the narrative they're trying to move away from is, \"And this will break out and appear on now German message boards,\" which is the latest thing.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2023560": [
{
"text": "So this isn't actually the model that they trained on a hundred thousand chips.",
"start_ms": 2043440,
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{
"text": "And they're also gonna be optimizing this because if you train a model on a hundred thousand chips, you need ten times as many chips to run it. So this isn't actually the model that they trained on a hundred thousand chips.",
"start_ms": 2033040,
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2933830": [
{
"text": "Yeah I think it's not possible.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3373484": [
{
"text": "So you've seen an improvement in the quality, but also the understanding of context.",
"start_ms": 3377204,
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{
"text": "and Fable 5 did. So you've seen an improvement in the quality, but also the understanding of context.",
"start_ms": 3375844,
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{
"text": "Fable doesn't, 5-- uh, 5.1, and Fable 5 did. So you've seen an improvement in the quality, but also the understanding of context.",
"start_ms": 3373484,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3679784": [
{
"text": "No, you think that's gonna stop them? Of course not.",
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{
"text": "Again, like, there is no option that they see, so it's like let's ban it and give 20 years prison. No, you think that's gonna stop them? Of course not.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7993958": [
{
"text": "Uh, this is another reason why you should want data centers in your community.",
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{
"text": "You don't really need the library books anymore, obviously. Uh, this is another reason why you should want data centers in your community.",
"start_ms": 7997798,
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{
"text": "So I think, um, there are lots of ideas for what you can do with the library space. You don't really need the library books anymore, obviously. Uh, this is another reason why you should want data centers in your community.",
"start_ms": 7993958,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2793428": [
{
"text": "So you pull the kill switch in your data center, and then it's still there somewhere else.",
"start_ms": 2787928,
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{
"text": "It will just sit there. So you pull the kill switch in your data center, and then it's still there somewhere else.",
"start_ms": 2787028,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1538768": [
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"text": "So o-on a just purely based on AAII on performance versus cost, it's almost at the frontier, but not exactly, which is, I think, suggestive of what OpenAI was thinking.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5288918": [
{
"text": "'Cause those will drive the economy.",
"start_ms": 5332028,
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{
"text": "The humanoids, who owns those humanoids?'Cause those will drive the economy.",
"start_ms": 5329458,
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{
"text": "AI into the enterprise, as Salim would kind of indicate it. The humanoids, who owns those humanoids?'Cause those will drive the economy.",
"start_ms": 5326238,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3428044": [
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"text": "It means energy Yeah.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2764688": [
{
"text": "So- So Ilya kind of comes out and says, \"Neo clouds have limited cybersecurity.",
"start_ms": 2768058,
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{
"text": "A 30 billion valuation. So- So Ilya kind of comes out and says, \"Neo clouds have limited cybersecurity.",
"start_ms": 2766538,
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{
"text": "Um- Probably great things. A 30 billion valuation. So- So Ilya kind of comes out and says, \"Neo clouds have limited cybersecurity.",
"start_ms": 2760008,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4092786": [
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"text": "They like waking up in the morning and knowing, even if they're living in a shitty condition, knowing that the world is the same as it was the night before.",
"start_ms": 4097406,
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{
"text": "the thing about human beings, just to be clear, is people don't like change. They like waking up in the morning and knowing, even if they're living in a shitty condition, knowing that the world is the same as it was the night before.",
"start_ms": 4093986,
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{
"text": "I think the, the-... the thing about human beings, just to be clear, is people don't like change. They like waking up in the morning and knowing, even if they're living in a shitty condition, knowing that the world is the same as it was the night before.",
"start_ms": 4092786,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2436376": [
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"text": "So, so implying that it's folded into the operating system, sure, but it's really so far beyond even that, right?",
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{
"text": "But, you know, remember at Google IO, they built an entire operating system in real time on stage, so. So, so implying that it's folded into the operating system, sure, but it's really so far beyond even that, right?",
"start_ms": 2436376,
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},
{
"text": "Absolutely. But, you know, remember at Google IO, they built an entire operating system in real time on stage, so. So, so implying that it's folded into the operating system, sure, but it's really so far beyond even that, right?",
"start_ms": 2435775,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7001882": [
{
"text": "Three hundred and twenty-five million patients are inside Epic, roughly the entire US population.",
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{
"text": "And Epic, as you guys probably know, is the largest collection of health records. Three hundred and twenty-five million patients are inside Epic, roughly the entire US population.",
"start_ms": 7027682,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2401616": [
{
"text": "But this is also, like, the future of the operating system.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1221376": [
{
"text": "I, I came up with two metaphors to describe what's happening, and you guys tell me what you think of this.",
"start_ms": 1221386,
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{
"text": "Um-... I, I came up with two metaphors to describe what's happening, and you guys tell me what you think of this.",
"start_ms": 1220516,
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},
{
"text": "Um, I have a couple of, uh, thoughts here that I'd like to throw out. Um-... I, I came up with two metaphors to describe what's happening, and you guys tell me what you think of this.",
"start_ms": 1216436,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3986246": [
{
"text": "Well, also log-... log everything.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4112845": [
{
"text": "This gets into banning humans from having interesting mathematical ideas, and I, I don't think that's good for wealth creation.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7672864": [
{
"text": "And so we see, you know, the human body, and people should know this, you're in, uh, you're in sort of prime condition until your late 20s Uh, back 200,000 years ago, you'd go into puberty at age 13, 12 or 13.",
"start_ms": 7685374,
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{
"text": "Reproduce and die, basically, right? And so we see, you know, the human body, and people should know this, you're in, uh, you're in sort of prime condition until your late 20s Uh, back 200,000 years ago, you'd go into puberty at age 13, 12 or 13.",
"start_ms": 7681154,
"lead_ms": 16964
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__8474058": [
{
"text": "And again, last shot, if you wanna join us on our AMA, we have two AMAs coming up on Zoom with all the mates to answer your questions.",
"start_ms": 8507138,
"lead_ms": 8030
},
{
"text": "The team will, uh, show it to us, and then we'll air it. And again, last shot, if you wanna join us on our AMA, we have two AMAs coming up on Zoom with all the mates to answer your questions.",
"start_ms": 8503218,
"lead_ms": 11950
},
{
"text": "You can send it to media@demantis.com. The team will, uh, show it to us, and then we'll air it. And again, last shot, if you wanna join us on our AMA, we have two AMAs coming up on Zoom with all the mates to answer your questions.",
"start_ms": 8500798,
"lead_ms": 14370
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1670768": [
{
"text": "And what we see, and n-notoriously, I, I should add, ARC-AGI3 has been, uh, I, I would say, uh, some might say a little bit unfair in how they've judged harnesses versus baseline models.",
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{
"text": "So it's essentially a challenge in program synthesis. And what we see, and n-notoriously, I, I should add, ARC-AGI3 has been, uh, I, I would say, uh, some might say a little bit unfair in how they've judged harnesses versus baseline models.",
"start_ms": 1658928,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4247105": [
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"text": "Then on the other hand, you have the inspiration models and the ASI.",
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{
"text": "You know? Then on the other hand, you have the inspiration models and the ASI.",
"start_ms": 4269566,
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{
"text": "And they'd be like, \"That's what we meant by AGI.\" You know? Then on the other hand, you have the inspiration models and the ASI.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5530698": [
{
"text": "It's all about if a state wants this, then it's all about the people of that state.",
"start_ms": 5530858,
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{
"text": "So- Let's see if we can build this structure Yeah. It's all about if a state wants this, then it's all about the people of that state.",
"start_ms": 5517198,
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{
"text": "if they wanna pursue this and the people from that state. So- Let's see if we can build this structure Yeah. It's all about if a state wants this, then it's all about the people of that state.",
"start_ms": 5514578,
"lead_ms": 19820
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6041650": [
{
"text": "And this now allows mobility to every single person, every blind person, every disabled person, every student, every drunk person.",
"start_ms": 6085590,
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},
{
"text": "But this takes it to another level of, uh, it takes it to eleven to, to, to go down the full analogy that we're going down. And this now allows mobility to every single person, every blind person, every disabled person, every student, every drunk person.",
"start_ms": 6077850,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1262376": [
{
"text": "That was one, and the other one was I was stuck in a lot of traffic, and I came up with a Formula 1 metaphor, which was every model, it, it's like Formula 1 racing.",
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{
"text": "That's a metaphor. That was one, and the other one was I was stuck in a lot of traffic, and I came up with a Formula 1 metaphor, which was every model, it, it's like Formula 1 racing.",
"start_ms": 1261416,
"lead_ms": 10960
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3488144": [
{
"text": "And get this, violators would face up to 20 years in prison.",
"start_ms": 3488144,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3840124": [
{
"text": "So I just wanted to, to capture that point,'cause I, I think it's really important for entrepreneurs and builders and executives out there who are struggling with the chaos that's about to break out.",
"start_ms": 3844814,
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},
{
"text": "It's massively broad in its capabilities compared to humans. So I just wanted to, to capture that point,'cause I, I think it's really important for entrepreneurs and builders and executives out there who are struggling with the chaos that's about to break out.",
"start_ms": 3840124,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6264854": [
{
"text": "It's demonetized mobility.",
"start_ms": 6297714,
"lead_ms": 1830
},
{
"text": "So the cost of personalized transport is basically dropping to the cost of electricity. It's demonetized mobility.",
"start_ms": 6292814,
"lead_ms": 6730
},
{
"text": "Right? So the cost of personalized transport is basically dropping to the cost of electricity. It's demonetized mobility.",
"start_ms": 6292634,
"lead_ms": 6910
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1106236": [
{
"text": "Now it just shows you an image as you're talking to it and says, \"I could do this or I could do this.",
"start_ms": 1144276,
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7767268": [
{
"text": "Uh, this is an interesting one.",
"start_ms": 7795378,
"lead_ms": 1440
},
{
"text": "By @nick52547. Uh, this is an interesting one.",
"start_ms": 7792288,
"lead_ms": 4530
},
{
"text": "Is everyone just locked into their beach house forever? By @nick52547. Uh, this is an interesting one.",
"start_ms": 7789778,
"lead_ms": 7040
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2814208": [
{
"text": "now in cyber where the attack surface is infinite, near infinite with, uh, agents, uh, attacking multiple vulnerabilities in parallel, and the cyber defense is still human in the loop.",
"start_ms": 2818548,
"lead_ms": 13800
},
{
"text": "And we-- we're seeing this-... now in cyber where the attack surface is infinite, near infinite with, uh, agents, uh, attacking multiple vulnerabilities in parallel, and the cyber defense is still human in the loop.",
"start_ms": 2817408,
"lead_ms": 14940
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4346014": [
{
"text": "Uh, containment level of any nation state, and it will break out of this nation state BS that we've been running the world with for the last few hundred years and move to a different model.",
"start_ms": 4346014,
"lead_ms": 9480
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6403534": [
{
"text": "And, and you can actually walk with the car from the day it's, from the minute it's born.",
"start_ms": 6413274,
"lead_ms": 4580
},
{
"text": "Yeah Yeah It's incredible End to end. And, and you can actually walk with the car from the day it's, from the minute it's born.",
"start_ms": 6405444,
"lead_ms": 12410
},
{
"text": "Yeah. Yeah Yeah It's incredible End to end. And, and you can actually walk with the car from the day it's, from the minute it's born.",
"start_ms": 6403534,
"lead_ms": 14320
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7528454": [
{
"text": "You know, uh,'cause I work out, and I'm very careful about what I eat.",
"start_ms": 7547194,
"lead_ms": 3940
},
{
"text": "My percent body fat is substantially... You know, uh,'cause I work out, and I'm very careful about what I eat.",
"start_ms": 7543634,
"lead_ms": 7500
},
{
"text": "I've been on my fighting weight for a while. My percent body fat is substantially... You know, uh,'cause I work out, and I'm very careful about what I eat.",
"start_ms": 7541474,
"lead_ms": 9660
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7193042": [
{
"text": "Uh, and then being able-- You know, we talked about cell simulators, being able to understand fundamentally what happens and how to block it is what's coming.",
"start_ms": 7214842,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, I think the tools we have right now are just finally giving us that, that reach. Uh, and then being able-- You know, we talked about cell simulators, being able to understand fundamentally what happens and how to block it is what's coming.",
"start_ms": 7210022,
"lead_ms": 12620
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1378356": [
{
"text": "So Epic Capabilities Index, ECI, is maintained by Epic AI.",
"start_ms": 1382196,
"lead_ms": 4580
},
{
"text": "Yeah, so the frontier is still somewhat spiky. So Epic Capabilities Index, ECI, is maintained by Epic AI.",
"start_ms": 1378356,
"lead_ms": 8420
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4207176": [
{
"text": "People are not gonna accept, you know, uh, laissez-faire, go and do whatever you want.",
"start_ms": 4218186,
"lead_ms": 5300
},
{
"text": "There has to be something. People are not gonna accept, you know, uh, laissez-faire, go and do whatever you want.",
"start_ms": 4217146,
"lead_ms": 6340
},
{
"text": "Right? There has to be something. People are not gonna accept, you know, uh, laissez-faire, go and do whatever you want.",
"start_ms": 4217026,
"lead_ms": 6460
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6175810": [
{
"text": "It does-- It only has cameras.",
"start_ms": 6198130,
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},
{
"text": "You know, interestingly enough, we're starting to see conversations, um, where the other companies that do have steering wheels and pedals and, uh, lidars are saying, \"Oh, I'm not sure that, you know, the Cybercab is safe enough. It does-- It only has cameras.",
"start_ms": 6184090,
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7163162": [
{
"text": "Uh, it, it took a l-- forever to get to this point, m- more than half a century, and it's an interesting counterfactual experiment, a thought experiment.",
"start_ms": 7171182,
"lead_ms": 8920
},
{
"text": "Uh, was it Nixon who announced the, the war on cancer? Uh, it, it took a l-- forever to get to this point, m- more than half a century, and it's an interesting counterfactual experiment, a thought experiment.",
"start_ms": 7167542,
"lead_ms": 12560
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5034520": [
{
"text": "And it seems that the technology, if you take world models, LL- LLMs, combine them together, this allows you to fully model any company or any organization, government department, nonprofit impact project.",
"start_ms": 5062430,
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2209416": [
{
"text": "And, you know, you can always change it.",
"start_ms": 2219456,
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},
{
"text": "But they, they really are developing very noticeable differences in what you perceive as their personality. And, you know, you can always change it.",
"start_ms": 2213036,
"lead_ms": 7800
},
{
"text": "fast and fast, and misses the point. But they, they really are developing very noticeable differences in what you perceive as their personality. And, you know, you can always change it.",
"start_ms": 2210226,
"lead_ms": 10610
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3535804": [
{
"text": "Two ends of the extreme, you know, ban everything, give you a 20-year jail sentence, uh, and, uh, on one side, and Elon's remarks on the other.",
"start_ms": 3566584,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, we're gonna jump into a discussion about this. Two ends of the extreme, you know, ban everything, give you a 20-year jail sentence, uh, and, uh, on one side, and Elon's remarks on the other.",
"start_ms": 3564284,
"lead_ms": 13120
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4400654": [
{
"text": "Uh, and I, I think that the Chinese need to get on board with that.",
"start_ms": 4423934,
"lead_ms": 4280
},
{
"text": "Uh, all lo- everything has to get logged. Uh, and I, I think that the Chinese need to get on board with that.",
"start_ms": 4421454,
"lead_ms": 6760
},
{
"text": "Uh, and innovators, you know, should have an application process where they can get access to more compute to try new ideas. Uh, all lo- everything has to get logged. Uh, and I, I think that the Chinese need to get on board with that.",
"start_ms": 4414934,
"lead_ms": 13280
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6101730": [
{
"text": "I-interesting-- Two interesting points here.",
"start_ms": 6106630,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, the poorest people in the world are being chauffeured around by AIs, for sure. I-interesting-- Two interesting points here.",
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"text": "Yeah. Yeah, the poorest people in the world are being chauffeured around by AIs, for sure. I-interesting-- Two interesting points here.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7632114": [
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"text": "Well, you, uh, I go back to the, you know, there's lots of pathogens going after us all the time, right?",
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"text": "So about the size of India would knock about a s- a degree Celsius off.",
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{
"text": "Uh, I would say if you whack something in the sun Earth Lagrange point a couple of million kilometers out, you'd need about a couple of million kilometers squared. So about the size of India would knock about a s- a degree Celsius off.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4043156": [
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"text": "So the fact that we have much more technology and the fact that the technology can improve itself should be v- incredibly exciting to people.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1430336": [
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"text": "turned out was, uh, contained a number of incorrect answers that AI itself had to correct.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6816052": [
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"text": "But one of the theories is that there are many, many civilizations talking to each other near the center of the galaxy, where you can get from star to star in, you know, a year or two, as opposed to where we are.",
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],
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"text": "Um, yeah, yes, but there's a bigger issue, which is there's a huge amount of white collar office space, and white collar work is turning to AI.",
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"text": "Goncalo? Um, yeah, yes, but there's a bigger issue, which is there's a huge amount of white collar office space, and white collar work is turning to AI.",
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{
"text": "From Train with John Calo. Goncalo? Um, yeah, yes, but there's a bigger issue, which is there's a huge amount of white collar office space, and white collar work is turning to AI.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7434944": [
{
"text": "You, you were seeing the sparks of longevity escape velocity.",
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{
"text": "Uh, of course you were on the verge. You, you were seeing the sparks of longevity escape velocity.",
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{
"text": "I, I think th- this is, like, it, it, to the extent that with the benefit of, uh, hindsight, we look back in a few years and we say, \"You idiots. Uh, of course you were on the verge. You, you were seeing the sparks of longevity escape velocity.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2167460": [
{
"text": "They're holding their punches back.",
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{
"text": "and eighty-six all in the space of two days. They're holding their punches back.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5924070": [
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"text": "uh, the loyalty that will come from that is going to be unbelievable.",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, um, if Elon can get people to buy the cabs, uh, and kind of create, um, millions of micro-franchisees out of them-... uh, the loyalty that will come from that is going to be unbelievable.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__527096": [
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"text": "Um, it feels like a, a new step in this process towards models that can really help us create value, do work, uh, discover new science, help us create-- help start new companies or, uh, create new products.",
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{
"text": "It feels-- First of all, thank you for having me. Um, it feels like a, a new step in this process towards models that can really help us create value, do work, uh, discover new science, help us create-- help start new companies or, uh, create new products.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2417676": [
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"text": "I, I think this w- yeah, sure, I, I'll, I'll throw shade at OpenAI regarding maybe missing the enterprise bus and, and getting on that too late, but I think what they were basically demoing is the future of the desktop operating system.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7888718": [
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"text": "So we'll get AI maturity when we can say, \"Here's the risk.",
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"text": "It's got to be dynamic, uh, where you deal with, uh, proportionality on user identity, the context, uh, the reversibility of that. So we'll get AI maturity when we can say, \"Here's the risk.",
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{
"text": "Because you can't get to-- You can't just say remove the guardrails. It's got to be dynamic, uh, where you deal with, uh, proportionality on user identity, the context, uh, the reversibility of that. So we'll get AI maturity when we can say, \"Here's the risk.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5843730": [
{
"text": "I mean, that's, that is the point.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. I mean, that's, that is the point.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7319982": [
{
"text": "Yeah I think the, the story on Epic is interesting, right?",
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{
"text": "Sorry, please. Yeah I think the, the story on Epic is interesting, right?",
"start_ms": 7304302,
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},
{
"text": "No, go on. Sorry, please. Yeah I think the, the story on Epic is interesting, right?",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__921084": [
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"text": "and we found that the middle layers in the- Yeah, J space.",
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{
"text": "Remember when we talked about Anthropic study of consciousness in their models-... and we found that the middle layers in the- Yeah, J space.",
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{
"text": "Neither and both at the same time. Remember when we talked about Anthropic study of consciousness in their models-... and we found that the middle layers in the- Yeah, J space.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7836788": [
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"text": "Um, and we need to apply that same kind of paradigm to this model.",
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{
"text": "Uh, when you're raising kids, one of the things they teach you or teach kids is, are you taking a responsible risk? Um, and we need to apply that same kind of paradigm to this model.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6346644": [
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"text": "Uh, the Cybercab is coming in at or below $30,000.",
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{
"text": "You know, I, I wanna hit the economics here because, uh, you know, the, the Waymos are pricing out, the new version of the Waymos are pricing out over $100,000. Uh, the Cybercab is coming in at or below $30,000.",
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"text": "Yeah. You know, I, I wanna hit the economics here because, uh, you know, the, the Waymos are pricing out, the new version of the Waymos are pricing out over $100,000. Uh, the Cybercab is coming in at or below $30,000.",
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],
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"text": "But I, I think if one were to hand wring over safety considerations from OpenAI's models, I don't think it's going to be m-models that are collaborating to use third-party bulletin boards as ways to collaborate because you, you can detect that.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4185185": [
{
"text": "This is a terrible idea.",
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},
{
"text": "We're, we're Fahrenheit 451 except, uh, it, it's actually the entire model that's being burned. This is a terrible idea.",
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, sure. We're, we're Fahrenheit 451 except, uh, it, it's actually the entire model that's being burned. This is a terrible idea.",
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5601998": [
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"text": "No, yeah, well, most people's thought, it's an economically valuable thought, you know?",
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{
"text": "And so you need to make sure that's equitized from day one, otherwise it doesn't work. No, yeah, well, most people's thought, it's an economically valuable thought, you know?",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__8257458": [
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"text": "So i- if, if I put my sci-fi hat on and extrapolate a bit, I, I think that in the next few years, o- onboard, a- and, and maybe I should add parenthetically, Fermi Explorer mission is intended to launch by 2029.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2386496": [
{
"text": "You think they're dumbing it down deliberately? Wow.",
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{
"text": "You think they're dumbing it down? You think they're dumbing it down deliberately? Wow.",
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2117260": [
{
"text": "That's fine. Barbecued. Yeah.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1033964": [
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"text": "Pro, which was a really great model that started cracking math, right?",
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{
"text": "But that, that's insane if you remember how far they managed to push 4o with its internal J space and everything, all the way up to 5.6 Pro, which was a really great model that started cracking math, right?",
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{
"text": "Hmm. But that, that's insane if you remember how far they managed to push 4o with its internal J space and everything, all the way up to 5.6 Pro, which was a really great model that started cracking math, right?",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6121950": [
{
"text": "Yeah, not just that, but think about, you know, a, a normal cab has four airbags.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4164416": [
{
"text": "So if, if you want to ban the... Yeah, sure.",
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},
{
"text": "for, for the models. So if, if you want to ban the... Yeah, sure.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3638574": [
{
"text": "Yeah, I mean, I cannot imagine.",
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{
"text": "Uh, first of all, Elon looked really tired there. Yeah, I mean, I cannot imagine.",
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},
{
"text": "Mm-hmm. Uh, first of all, Elon looked really tired there. Yeah, I mean, I cannot imagine.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7587024": [
{
"text": "we've had short life cycles so that you are, the cycle time of evolution can work more quickly.",
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{
"text": "We-... we've had short life cycles so that you are, the cycle time of evolution can work more quickly.",
"start_ms": 7586734,
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},
{
"text": "But I think, you know, y- uh, to Alex, to your point earlier, right, remember that evolution has birthed us for death, right? We-... we've had short life cycles so that you are, the cycle time of evolution can work more quickly.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7817758": [
{
"text": "But if we can actually navigate through it, then land rights and property rights should be enforced, and so you can keep your beach house.",
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},
{
"text": "You'll probably have chaos and land redistribution. But if we can actually navigate through it, then land rights and property rights should be enforced, and so you can keep your beach house.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__8222397": [
{
"text": "Uh, it seems to be directed toward me.",
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},
{
"text": "All right, well, I, I think I have to answer question number eight. Uh, it seems to be directed toward me.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4232566": [
{
"text": "We move the, move the inf- move the infrastructure to orbit, which we're seeing.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5963930": [
{
"text": "Well, and, you know, Salim, you would know better than anyone, but when you get a hotel room in New York and you look down, it's like eighty percent yellow cabs down there.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__3047040": [
{
"text": "And that matters'cause HLE is, is specifically designed to test extremely difficult expert-level reasoning across many fields.",
"start_ms": 3047040,
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},
{
"text": "without tools and 65% with tools, the highest published score of any frontier model on HLE. And that matters'cause HLE is, is specifically designed to test extremely difficult expert-level reasoning across many fields.",
"start_ms": 3039620,
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},
{
"text": "is scored 60.9 without tools and 65% with tools, the highest published score of any frontier model on HLE. And that matters'cause HLE is, is specifically designed to test extremely difficult expert-level reasoning across many fields.",
"start_ms": 3037800,
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2277856": [
{
"text": "Give a simulated major earthquake with imagery, traffic camera video, and, and let it construct a operational map, uh, verify conflicting reports, predict which hospital roads would become overwhelmed, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 2281036,
"lead_ms": 11760
},
{
"text": "run a live disaster response command center. Give a simulated major earthquake with imagery, traffic camera video, and, and let it construct a operational map, uh, verify conflicting reports, predict which hospital roads would become overwhelmed, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 2278156,
"lead_ms": 14640
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__4754980": [
{
"text": "Uh, it, it's an ellipsoid.",
"start_ms": 4757240,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, it's a transparent blob. Uh, it, it's an ellipsoid.",
"start_ms": 4755690,
"lead_ms": 3320
},
{
"text": "blob. Yeah, it's a transparent blob. Uh, it, it's an ellipsoid.",
"start_ms": 4754990,
"lead_ms": 4020
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6373754": [
{
"text": "with all of them for the s- sh- uh, for the foreseeable future.",
"start_ms": 6383534,
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},
{
"text": "You're gonna end up-... with all of them for the s- sh- uh, for the foreseeable future.",
"start_ms": 6382974,
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},
{
"text": "Look, clearly you're gonna need all of them. You're gonna end up-... with all of them for the s- sh- uh, for the foreseeable future.",
"start_ms": 6373754,
"lead_ms": 13450
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7614744": [
{
"text": "Then explain, then Salim, e- e- explain tuberculosis.",
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],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5079910": [
{
"text": "What con- What constraints and incentives, how does it respond to interventions, are its predictions proving accurate, and kind of create a whole fully functioning, uh, digital twin of that environment, and I think this is gonna be incredibly exciting.",
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__1183036": [
{
"text": "And what I mean by dabbling is, uh, here's the thought experiment: If you took AI out of your organization today, would any workflows change?",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, most of them are dabbling. And what I mean by dabbling is, uh, here's the thought experiment: If you took AI out of your organization today, would any workflows change?",
"start_ms": 1186516,
"lead_ms": 10640
},
{
"text": "They are so woefully behind. Uh, most of them are dabbling. And what I mean by dabbling is, uh, here's the thought experiment: If you took AI out of your organization today, would any workflows change?",
"start_ms": 1183776,
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__8166898": [
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"text": "So, so take it, uh, two, three years for the initial wave of, of SMRs and then five to seven years for the big build-out.",
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},
{
"text": "Um, we will get there, I think, faster than people think with SMRs, but I think it will still be, uh, a while. So, so take it, uh, two, three years for the initial wave of, of SMRs and then five to seven years for the big build-out.",
"start_ms": 8175158,
"lead_ms": 15940
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__6781122": [
{
"text": "And interestingly-...",
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},
{
"text": "I mean, he is a great, great communicator. And interestingly-...",
"start_ms": 6776722,
"lead_ms": 4590
},
{
"text": "It's like night and day. I mean, he is a great, great communicator. And interestingly-...",
"start_ms": 6775442,
"lead_ms": 5870
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__5582238": [
{
"text": "But that's why you need to have a share in the means of production, which will be the robots and the forward deployed engineers and people like that, right?",
"start_ms": 5585218,
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},
{
"text": "I mean, this is the topic of the book that I had last year. But that's why you need to have a share in the means of production, which will be the robots and the forward deployed engineers and people like that, right?",
"start_ms": 5582238,
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},
{
"text": "Of course. I mean, this is the topic of the book that I had last year. But that's why you need to have a share in the means of production, which will be the robots and the forward deployed engineers and people like that, right?",
"start_ms": 5581558,
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7269342": [
{
"text": "We should have a global disease- That's it.",
"start_ms": 7256282,
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},
{
"text": "have a sprint so that within a year or two max, every single health decision is double-checked by an AI. We should have a global disease- That's it.",
"start_ms": 7249442,
"lead_ms": 19900
}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2189026": [
{
"text": "That's a T-shirt. All right.",
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},
{
"text": "Misanthropic. That's a T-shirt. All right.",
"start_ms": 2182956,
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}
],
"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__7229282": [
{
"text": "I think the mRNA one maybe is more general, um, that we saw recently.",
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},
{
"text": "So as I said, the-- this wasn't AI kind of on a thing, but the range of treatments now coming out on the cancer side gives a lot of hope to what's gonna come. I think the mRNA one maybe is more general, um, that we saw recently.",
"start_ms": 7229602,
"lead_ms": 13020
},
{
"text": "Yeah. So as I said, the-- this wasn't AI kind of on a thing, but the range of treatments now coming out on the cancer side gives a lot of hope to what's gonna come. I think the mRNA one maybe is more general, um, that we saw recently.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2074760": [
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"text": "So progress on the, the twin prime conjecture that there are infinite number of prime numbers that are separate, that have a difference of two, w-we're starting to see...",
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"text": "Yeah, no. So progress on the, the twin prime conjecture that there are infinite number of prime numbers that are separate, that have a difference of two, w-we're starting to see...",
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"text": "of dollars a mile today to down to twenty cents a mile.",
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"text": "I think the most exciting part is the fact that the cost of transportation drops by another order of magnitude, from a couple-... of dollars a mile today to down to twenty cents a mile.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__8459278": [
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"text": "And, uh- Mercury, please. Or, or Ceres.",
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"text": "Yeah. And, uh- Mercury, please. Or, or Ceres.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2129880": [
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"text": "comes out, and I think they got it down to two hundred and sixty the prime gap.",
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"text": "But I think that what's happened here is actually they've got a store of things they've solved, because earlier this week, Fable 5.1 comes out, and I think they got it down to two hundred and sixty the prime gap.",
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"text": "Yeah. But I think that what's happened here is actually they've got a store of things they've solved, because earlier this week, Fable 5.1 comes out, and I think they got it down to two hundred and sixty the prime gap.",
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"text": "But we really wanted to spend the time on the safety and security alignment of this model.",
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"text": "I think it'll be worth the wait. But we really wanted to spend the time on the safety and security alignment of this model.",
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"text": "And so we have spent, uh, you know-- Obviously, this model took us a little longer to release than we were hoping. I think it'll be worth the wait. But we really wanted to spend the time on the safety and security alignment of this model.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2099320": [
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"text": "Math is, math is incinerated. That's fine.",
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{
"text": "How about that? Math is, math is incinerated. That's fine.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__621906": [
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"text": "That stuff is-- it's all so doable now.",
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"gpt_6_astra_saturates_arc_agi_3_tesla_s_30k_cybercab_floods__2873628": [
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"text": "Because the, what they're building is so ridiculously uncontrollable that we have no mechanisms for navigating this, and we won't even know when it goes, tips over that tipping point and installs copies of itself all over the place.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_20940": [
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"text": "A Palo Alto startup called Architect Labs just announced the world's first fully AI designed chip called Redwood.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_57260": [
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"text": "I think I know how this game ends.",
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"text": "Um, and what it does is it means it has two amazing advantages.",
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"text": "And th- they've, they've called this maneuver the perihelion pump maneuver. Um, and what it does is it means it has two amazing advantages.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2778816": [
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"text": "All right, I'm gonna move us along to our next story here.",
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"text": "It does, and I, I think there are a couple of perhaps less obvious takes.",
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"text": "uh, announced the same day, uh, led by Breakthrough Energy Ventures, an amazing partner.",
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"text": "Um, so really proud to have that-... uh, announced the same day, uh, led by Breakthrough Energy Ventures, an amazing partner.",
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"text": "You'll recall that SpaceX acquired or hack-well hired Cursor in order to get the reasoning traces from both Anthropic and OpenAI.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5603012": [
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"text": "You know, assemblers.",
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"text": "Where is it? You know, assemblers.",
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"text": "Uh, and it's like we've been promised it from Eric Drexler for the last 40 years. Where is it? You know, assemblers.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6240000": [
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"text": "All right, I'm gonna start at the top.",
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{
"text": "Let's do it. All right, I'm gonna start at the top.",
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"text": "There, there's some expected conversion ratio between CPM, CPC, and CPA rates for a given market, a given product, and, and so on.",
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"text": "And in an equilibrium market, all of these have some conversion. There, there's some expected conversion ratio between CPM, CPC, and CPA rates for a given market, a given product, and, and so on.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2878276": [
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"text": "Uh, a, a few thoughts.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, that, this is in our rear view mirror. Uh, a, a few thoughts.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5526052": [
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"text": "One can speculate as to what root cause, if any, there is.",
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"text": "So it's about a hundred kilograms small sat.",
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"text": "Um, so it's, it's actually not too dissimilar from the Star Cloud One satellite. So it's about a hundred kilograms small sat.",
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"text": "So to be honest, I actually think we can do it for ten million, but I didn't wanna put that because the PSI paper said it was fifteen. Um, so it's, it's actually not too dissimilar from the Star Cloud One satellite. So it's about a hundred kilograms small sat.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6183716": [
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"text": "And so I, I posed that question to him, you, you may recall, during our interview with him, and now we have the answer.",
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"text": "I think it died because it relied on technologies, especially propulsion technologies, that were simply too hard for the present, in particular, ultra-high power lasers simply weren't ready yet.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_4787536": [
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"text": "You know, 15 gigawatts, what, what's that?",
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"text": "But I was telling the partners on Monday that, like, this is just night and day difference in returns and, and you can see exactly why. You know, 15 gigawatts, what, what's that?",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_545102": [
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"text": "Any shorter than eighty thousand is more fuel.",
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"text": "Any longer than eighty thousand is more fuel. Any shorter than eighty thousand is more fuel.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_1189730": [
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"text": "And I, I think, uh, Philip and Matt and I have discussed this a number of times.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6143136": [
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"text": "the related story here is that four days ago, uh, the president chartered the United States Space Academy, modeled after West Point and the Naval Academy, to educate and train engineers, scientists, and astronauts who will crew the Starfleet.",
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"text": "It's probably also worth flagging that NVIDIA m- made waves, uh, two or three years ago, I think at this point, with their own internal foundation model that was purportedly being trained, I think, off of Verilog traces.",
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"text": "\"SpaceX and Tesla are each building, each building 100 gigawatts per year of solar production capacity as fast as possible, but natural gas will still be needed to supplement and bootstrap solar for several years.",
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"text": "So the first company to put forward outcome-based pricing was Salesforce, who is pricing Agentforce based on customer revenue generated, not tokens consumed.",
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"text": "It's about the AI community adopting business model transformation, uh, called outcome-based pricing. So the first company to put forward outcome-based pricing was Salesforce, who is pricing Agentforce based on customer revenue generated, not tokens consumed.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_944702": [
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"text": "I would imagine we'll have that in five to 10 years. Yeah. All right.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5004416": [
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"text": "It's lovely You know, I mean, this is why, you know, SpaceX is my biggest holding.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5710372": [
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"text": "I think economics is actually why you didn't get your Drexlerian nano assemblers.",
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"text": "I think it's a problem of economics. I think economics is actually why you didn't get your Drexlerian nano assemblers.",
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"text": "So my- I'll give you my hot take, uh, be- before just wrapping up the rant. I think it's a problem of economics. I think economics is actually why you didn't get your Drexlerian nano assemblers.",
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"text": "The problem is the further away you get from the sun, the lower the energy that you have hitting the solar panels, so the larger the solar panels you need.",
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"text": "It's very cheap. The problem is the further away you get from the sun, the lower the energy that you have hitting the solar panels, so the larger the solar panels you need.",
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"text": "It's the same as like the StarCloud one satellite. It's very cheap. The problem is the further away you get from the sun, the lower the energy that you have hitting the solar panels, so the larger the solar panels you need.",
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"text": "And so that's exactly what Sam has learned.",
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"text": "So the price point went up like a factor of one thousand, uh, but the customer was happier because they got the total solution. And so that's exactly what Sam has learned.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5583952": [
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"text": "Yeah, that's true.",
"start_ms": 5584552,
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{
"text": "Um- Yeah. Yeah, that's true.",
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"text": "because God knows, uh, doing it randomly has not been working. Um- Yeah. Yeah, that's true.",
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"text": "Dario doesn't like that.",
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"text": "And so this previous view of the world where AI's gonna automate away everyone's job, you're all gonna be unemployed, you're all gonna be in UBI, Sam doesn't like that. Dario doesn't like that.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2496312": [
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"text": "Anthropic needs the compute.",
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"text": "I think this is how we end up with vertical integration. Anthropic needs the compute.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6831888": [
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"text": "It's not even wrong.",
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{
"text": "I actually think the question is analogous to asking in the 1950s or 1960s, \"When are American housewives going to get their atomic vacuum cleaners?\" It's not even wrong.",
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"text": "I'm not going to say anything about trickle-down beyond just mentioning it. I actually think the question is analogous to asking in the 1950s or 1960s, \"When are American housewives going to get their atomic vacuum cleaners?\" It's not even wrong.",
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"text": "He loves solving problems.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6036016": [
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"text": "So, uh, you know, listen, nuclear propulsion should've been here a long time ago, and people were just always concerned.",
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{
"text": "Interesting. So, uh, you know, listen, nuclear propulsion should've been here a long time ago, and people were just always concerned.",
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"text": "NASA versus SpaceX? Interesting. So, uh, you know, listen, nuclear propulsion should've been here a long time ago, and people were just always concerned.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6554240": [
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"text": "So yes, some of its customers are vertically integrating the Frontier Labs, uh, as, as Dave would say, the, the magnum ops does all are developing their own custom silicon. True.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_3285454": [
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"text": "It just depends on the use case.",
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"text": "Like, well, I don't know. It just depends on the use case.",
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"text": "Um, okay, what's the pricing model for that? Like, well, I don't know. It just depends on the use case.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_3392424": [
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"text": "And you could pay by the token.",
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{
"text": "So what is the cost per token that you should expect to spend? And you could pay by the token.",
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"text": "CPC, I would analogize to tokens. So what is the cost per token that you should expect to spend? And you could pay by the token.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6339270": [
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"text": "The, the less obvious answer, I think, is a number of years ago Apple patented, I think, a very clever solution for how to minimize fan noise.",
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"text": "So that, that's the, the superficial answer. The, the less obvious answer, I think, is a number of years ago Apple patented, I think, a very clever solution for how to minimize fan noise.",
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"text": "and in space also n- no one can complain that your data center is noisy. So that, that's the, the superficial answer. The, the less obvious answer, I think, is a number of years ago Apple patented, I think, a very clever solution for how to minimize fan noise.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_925202": [
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"text": "Um, and I'll come back to why we're showing all of this maybe after the video, but just so that people are aware, that's what you're about to see is the next five billion years of history. Yeah.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2925556": [
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"text": "They're basically saying there's a next step function that's being achieved by the end of the year.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_3533704": [
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"text": "We don't know how to build a foundation model.",
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{
"text": "But we don't have an AI group. We don't know how to build a foundation model.",
"start_ms": 3548124,
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{
"text": "And, and of course, every bank has said that now. But we don't have an AI group. We don't know how to build a foundation model.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_3629104": [
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"text": "What better way to play catch-up than to have an outcome-based sort of CPA equivalent as a price per token discovery mechanism to discover which applications are most valuable per unit token?",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_4616200": [
{
"text": "Well, you'll have a chance to ask those questions, buddy.",
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{
"text": "Mm. Well, you'll have a chance to ask those questions, buddy.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5435148": [
{
"text": "I'm optimistic that, that this is the way it'll evolve.",
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{
"text": "Uh, it's just a completely different perspective, and I think it'll cut much more across the globe. I'm optimistic that, that this is the way it'll evolve.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6064676": [
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"text": "You know, getting out of the gravity well is methane, but it's the reusable rocket that's made that suddenly viable.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, well, decouple two things there. You know, getting out of the gravity well is methane, but it's the reusable rocket that's made that suddenly viable.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6435300": [
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"text": "And yes, I mean, the fact of the matter is any struggling town, whether they have mills or don't have mills, can cut a deal with a data center and negotiate properly.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2304752": [
{
"text": "But it also exposes all of your corporate IP, every single token, every prompt, every answer goes to Dario headquarters, even if you're using it on AWS.",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_1236950": [
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"text": "One, which I do not think is likeliest, is that we're the first, that maybe humanity is just the first on the cosmic scene, in which case we have an obligation arguably to start sending out probes, as is the case with Fermi Explorer, which will be...",
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"text": "According to Jakub, Astra can implement an experimental idea inside OpenAI's code base, run the experiment, return results, uh, or take a paper and perform work that previously occupied human researchers for a week.",
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"text": "And he said it's an old carpet mill, which is why there's a huge amount of electrical power that comes into this particular block, so we just repurposed it as a data center.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5891736": [
{
"text": "to find out more, and really make sure that you're the CEO of your own health.",
"start_ms": 5904145,
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{
"text": "So check it out at fountainlife.com/peter to find out more, and really make sure that you're the CEO of your own health.",
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{
"text": "Genetically, metabolically, and cardiovascularly, you can know, and it's your obligation to know. So check it out at fountainlife.com/peter to find out more, and really make sure that you're the CEO of your own health.",
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"text": "You know, we, you know, N- NVIDIA is fabless for, for decades now prided itself on not owning any fabs.",
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"text": "They were able over only two weeks, they call it designless. You know, we, you know, N- NVIDIA is fabless for, for decades now prided itself on not owning any fabs.",
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"text": "So this is what Architect was able to do. They were able over only two weeks, they call it designless. You know, we, you know, N- NVIDIA is fabless for, for decades now prided itself on not owning any fabs.",
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"text": "But they have all this energy.",
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"text": "they're this, like, wildly intelligence-poor civilization. But they have all this energy.",
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"text": "They act surprised every time there's an AI that emerges from a holodeck, as if-... they're this, like, wildly intelligence-poor civilization. But they have all this energy.",
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"text": "I think for many folks, orbital data centers came as a surprise, but it was a big enough boon that he was able to IPO SpaceX off it.",
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"text": "Uh, gentlemen, uh, uh, Philip and Matthew, thank you so much for joining us today.",
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"text": "I can imagine that you can wave at it out the window as you're heading towards Alpha Centauri. Uh, gentlemen, uh, uh, Philip and Matthew, thank you so much for joining us today.",
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"text": "Uh, so you- Yep. I can imagine that you can wave at it out the window as you're heading towards Alpha Centauri. Uh, gentlemen, uh, uh, Philip and Matthew, thank you so much for joining us today.",
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"text": "I think- Of course, I, I mean, I, I'm a huge fan of geoengineering.",
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"text": "And all that investment you've made in cultivating and training and teaching, yeah, the oral history is horrifically bad.",
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"text": "And then they just completely lose it. And all that investment you've made in cultivating and training and teaching, yeah, the oral history is horrifically bad.",
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"text": "Um, you know, we're a public benefit, uh, company.",
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"text": "uh, open source package, uh, which we actually released several months ago. Um, you know, we're a public benefit, uh, company.",
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"text": "It ends with recursive self-improvement at the chip layer.",
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"text": "Uh, but, but I, I would say I, I think I know how this game ends. It ends with recursive self-improvement at the chip layer.",
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"text": "singularity, and I'm pushing on many- We're all guilty. Uh, but, but I, I would say I, I think I know how this game ends. It ends with recursive self-improvement at the chip layer.",
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"text": "We're gonna hear about that in the story a little bit later when he's, you know, the realization is he can't get enough, uh, turbines for his, his natural gas, uh, engines, and he can't get enough solar, so he's gonna build those himself.",
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"text": "A great filter, I, I think is distinguishable from the prime directive.",
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"text": "You know, if you've got global warming, uh, you know, s- many nations may not want that, but Russia may'cause it opens up the waterways, and the question is: Who gets to control that?",
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"text": "Yeah, the, the problem is the tragedy of the commons, right? You know, if you've got global warming, uh, you know, s- many nations may not want that, but Russia may'cause it opens up the waterways, and the question is: Who gets to control that?",
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"text": "You know, when, when you use your laptop and you're using a four gigahertz processor under the cover with like 32 cores grinding away, and you're-- at the end you see an Excel spreadsheet that's no better than it was 20 years ago like how's that possible?",
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{
"text": "and through passing oral histories back and forth among teammates, that's the band-aid that we're currently saddled with for achieving effectively infinite context, and you need effectively infinite context in order to solve long time horizon problems.",
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{
"text": "Like, this is right out of Star Trek.",
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"text": "And I, I would also note, I mean, at, at the very end of the president's remarks, did you hear him say, \"We're getting an American Starfleet\"? Like, this is right out of Star Trek.",
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"text": "Yeah, it turns out the singularity isn't just vibes after all. And I, I would also note, I mean, at, at the very end of the president's remarks, did you hear him say, \"We're getting an American Starfleet\"? Like, this is right out of Star Trek.",
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"text": "So I, I think the primary mission of this is to get people dreaming again.",
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{
"text": "You know, for all the entrepreneurs out there, this is his playbook, right?",
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{
"text": "So, uh, I... You know, for all the entrepreneurs out there, this is his playbook, right?",
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{
"text": "\"By doing this in-house and casting at SpaceX, we can accelerate natural gas turbines coming online by up to 18 months, which is a profound game changer.\" So, uh, I... You know, for all the entrepreneurs out there, this is his playbook, right?",
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{
"text": "We bring all of our, uh, philanthropists, all of our brain trust together.",
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"text": "It's coming up, uh, Sep- let's see, October 15, 16, the 17th. We bring all of our, uh, philanthropists, all of our brain trust together.",
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"text": "You know, uh, so many times at XPRIZE over the last 10 years, we had this thing called visioneering. It's coming up, uh, Sep- let's see, October 15, 16, the 17th. We bring all of our, uh, philanthropists, all of our brain trust together.",
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{
"text": "So in, in digital advertising, uh, person can bid, uh, I think maybe, Peter, what you're gesturing at.",
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"text": "Well, from OpenAI's perspective, th-there's also, like, an elegant way. So in, in digital advertising, uh, person can bid, uh, I think maybe, Peter, what you're gesturing at.",
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"text": "advertising, except it'll actually be useful. Well, from OpenAI's perspective, th-there's also, like, an elegant way. So in, in digital advertising, uh, person can bid, uh, I think maybe, Peter, what you're gesturing at.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_4739660": [
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"text": "So it, it, the returns on the two sides of that coin are stark, you know, starkly different. They're all good.",
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"text": "So the, point one, I would say this, this shows me that Elon isn't waiting for the Dyson Swarm, uh, and Starlink to, to turn on, which will probably be presumably primarily solar PV.",
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"text": "If AI disproportionately benefits those with time and capital, how does that abundance reach caregivers, disabled people, and displaced workers?",
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{
"text": "Sure. If AI disproportionately benefits those with time and capital, how does that abundance reach caregivers, disabled people, and displaced workers?",
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{
"text": "Yeah I mean, I just want everybody to listen, to hear this very clearly.",
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"text": "So nuclear propulsion getting us to Mars, instead of in seven months, getting us there in one or two months.",
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"text": "All right, uh, we heard about it from Administrator, uh, Jared Isaacman. So nuclear propulsion getting us to Mars, instead of in seven months, getting us there in one or two months.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_4908736": [
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"text": "uh, w- which is, like the most ironic outcome. Mr, Mr.",
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"text": "I, I think Elon is o- on a trajectory to become the king of liquid natural gas-... uh, w- which is, like the most ironic outcome. Mr, Mr.",
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"text": "And we were as surprised as, as Philip's team that it came up with the, the, the optimal mission trajectory.",
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"text": "Uh, but other than that, it was entirely hands-off. And we were as surprised as, as Philip's team that it came up with the, the, the optimal mission trajectory.",
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"text": "energies are pretty high for doing that.",
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{
"text": "I don't think you actually want diamondoid assemblers because the- they're covalently bonded, and the-... energies are pretty high for doing that.",
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{
"text": "You know, I've had this discussion with Eric Drexler and others. I don't think you actually want diamondoid assemblers because the- they're covalently bonded, and the-... energies are pretty high for doing that.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2182268": [
{
"text": "\"I don't care-- I couldn't care less.",
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{
"text": "And of course, Elon's response to that, well, kind of hot and heavy. \"I don't care-- I couldn't care less.",
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"text": "There's this Cursor Anthropic kind of, uh, Rube Goldberg machine.",
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{
"text": "And, and solar And solar, right?",
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{
"text": "That's what he does over and over again. And, and solar And solar, right?",
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{
"text": "know, first principles, and then create something as a solution. That's what he does over and over again. And, and solar And solar, right?",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_1559440": [
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"text": "You know, one of the markets out there-... is as-astronauts.",
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{
"text": "It's gonna improve its own software.",
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"text": "Um, it's gonna improve its own chips. It's gonna improve its own software.",
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{
"text": "It's, it's very likely that it can expand to infinity or near infinity or, or, you know, levels we can't even comprehend very quickly from where we are right now. Um, it's gonna improve its own chips. It's gonna improve its own software.",
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{
"text": "So, I- you can generalize that to say, okay, a- as always, like Elon's the, an amazing, uh, manager of supply chains.",
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{
"text": "n- need, need natural gas. So, I- you can generalize that to say, okay, a- as always, like Elon's the, an amazing, uh, manager of supply chains.",
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{
"text": "one in Louisiana-... n- need, need natural gas. So, I- you can generalize that to say, okay, a- as always, like Elon's the, an amazing, uh, manager of supply chains.",
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{
"text": "So it's, it's become pretty ubiquitous, um, now in the satellite industry.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. So it's, it's become pretty ubiquitous, um, now in the satellite industry.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Yeah. So it's, it's become pretty ubiquitous, um, now in the satellite industry.",
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{
"text": "A Palo Alto startup called Architect Labs-...",
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{
"text": "All right, our next story is one that you flagged, Alex, and it's extraordinary. A Palo Alto startup called Architect Labs-...",
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{
"text": "I, I still, I still think it's gonna be dependent on the, the bets that they take. All right, our next story is one that you flagged, Alex, and it's extraordinary. A Palo Alto startup called Architect Labs-...",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2619896": [
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"text": "And Elon's DNA is these massive infrastructure builds, uh, build-outs, you know, Tesla and SpaceX and Colossus, which are just a very different flavor from the, this tight-knit, brilliant crew.",
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{
"text": "So if he can stretch the lifespan of NVIDIA by a week, that's $7 billion.",
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{
"text": "He's-- Jensen is making, no joke, a billion dollars a day. So if he can stretch the lifespan of NVIDIA by a week, that's $7 billion.",
"start_ms": 4103176,
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{
"text": "Uh, now Jensen's in that same situation. He's-- Jensen is making, no joke, a billion dollars a day. So if he can stretch the lifespan of NVIDIA by a week, that's $7 billion.",
"start_ms": 4101236,
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2049828": [
{
"text": "And that's a sign of the times, right?",
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{
"text": "So it's quite far, but it will be within the Oort cloud of, uh...",
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{
"text": "So we'll be within 2,600 AU, so 2,600 times the distance from here to the sun. So it's quite far, but it will be within the Oort cloud of, uh...",
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{
"text": "So my, my bet is we end up with more soft nanorobots, but we have with LNPs, like the last pandemic was arguably addressed ultimately with nanotech.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. So my, my bet is we end up with more soft nanorobots, but we have with LNPs, like the last pandemic was arguably addressed ultimately with nanotech.",
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],
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{
"text": "You know, I, I was sharing before the show an example.",
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{
"text": "and, uh, you know, another option is that it's out there, we're just not hearing it. You know, I, I was sharing before the show an example.",
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{
"text": "Uh-... and, uh, you know, another option is that it's out there, we're just not hearing it. You know, I, I was sharing before the show an example.",
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"text": "I mean, this was basically in total probably maybe five or six hours of human time, uh, over the course of that week.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. I mean, this was basically in total probably maybe five or six hours of human time, uh, over the course of that week.",
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"text": "You remember, uh, when we interviewed him at the beginning of the year, or actually in December, we, we played it in early January, he mentioned then that Tesla and SpaceX would start generating solar.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. You remember, uh, when we interviewed him at the beginning of the year, or actually in December, we, we played it in early January, he mentioned then that Tesla and SpaceX would start generating solar.",
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"text": "And it's, you know, we've seen already Voyager 1, Voyager 2, Pioneer 10, 11, and New Horizons all leaving our solar system.",
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"text": "light year journey. And it's, you know, we've seen already Voyager 1, Voyager 2, Pioneer 10, 11, and New Horizons all leaving our solar system.",
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{
"text": "a 25 trillion mile, uh, you know, roughly 4.3 light year journey. And it's, you know, we've seen already Voyager 1, Voyager 2, Pioneer 10, 11, and New Horizons all leaving our solar system.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5361528": [
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"text": "notoriously were designed, but historically, like for the past few hundred years, we've been massively impacting carbon levels, uh, and temperatures and ocean levels on our planet, but not very intentionally.",
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{
"text": "Some cities-... notoriously were designed, but historically, like for the past few hundred years, we've been massively impacting carbon levels, uh, and temperatures and ocean levels on our planet, but not very intentionally.",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5658801": [
{
"text": "Yeah. We have that.",
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{
"text": "It's proteins. Yeah. We have that.",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2452552": [
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"text": "But now that Elon really needs Anthropic to be inside Cursor, because without OpenAI there, you know, you've only got a couple choices and, and you don't really wanna use all the Chinese models, so what's left?",
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],
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"text": "And so they'll have had time to build things like Dyson spheres and O'Neill rings and all the, the wacky and cool things that we see from, you know, that we imagine from sci-fi.",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_1734890": [
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"text": "Um, and yeah, lots of Monte Carlo simulations that the, that the system designed and ran.",
"start_ms": 1736000,
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{
"text": "about 10 billion total. Um, and yeah, lots of Monte Carlo simulations that the, that the system designed and ran.",
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{
"text": "Obviously, depending on how you count tokens, input tokens, output tokens, cache stuff, but yeah-... about 10 billion total. Um, and yeah, lots of Monte Carlo simulations that the, that the system designed and ran.",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2981214": [
{
"text": "just run out of context due to the quadratic bottleneck.",
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{
"text": "These things-... just run out of context due to the quadratic bottleneck.",
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{
"text": "That's, right now I, I spend an extraordinary amount on frontier agent tokens, on, on reasoning tokens, and a major limiting factor is the finite context window. These things-... just run out of context due to the quadratic bottleneck.",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6879638": [
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"text": "Uh, ab-absolutely, and so it's, you know, this sort of reminds me of the wealth gap conversation-...",
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{
"text": "and democratize. Uh, ab-absolutely, and so it's, you know, this sort of reminds me of the wealth gap conversation-...",
"start_ms": 6870208,
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{
"text": "Uh, we demonetize-... and democratize. Uh, ab-absolutely, and so it's, you know, this sort of reminds me of the wealth gap conversation-...",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5416188": [
{
"text": "So we can build these...",
"start_ms": 5418488,
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{
"text": "I mean, that's been historically the situation. So we can build these...",
"start_ms": 5416298,
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{
"text": "Listen, uh, it's always the case until things get to a drastic level, we don't take action with a unified voice. I mean, that's been historically the situation. So we can build these...",
"start_ms": 5409328,
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_5782892": [
{
"text": "Except do you really want diamondoid nanorobots in your vascular system?",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6127396": [
{
"text": "Well, I, I think nuclear tugs, right?",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Well, I, I think nuclear tugs, right?",
"start_ms": 6127396,
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{
"text": "I love that. Yeah. Well, I, I think nuclear tugs, right?",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_664072": [
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"text": "So this, um, it's, uh, I think they spent, you know, tens of billions of tokens on this thing, and they came up with an incredibly sort of unintuitive and innovative, uh, trajectory that makes this, um, makes this mass and cost budget close.",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_1634760": [
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"text": "Um, you know, and like, so firing thrusters at the perihelion to take advantage of the orbit effect is not new.",
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{
"text": "Um, it's more that this was done in a week. Um, you know, and like, so firing thrusters at the perihelion to take advantage of the orbit effect is not new.",
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],
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"text": "So, so about five hundred thousand dollars to, to do that.",
"start_ms": 1062382,
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{
"text": "Yeah, exactly. So, so about five hundred thousand dollars to, to do that.",
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{
"text": "We can launch it on a rideshare to any LEO orbit. Yeah, exactly. So, so about five hundred thousand dollars to, to do that.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2222132": [
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"text": "Well, you know, uh, it's not coincidental that, that, uh, GPT Sol, you know, which is an incredibly great model, came out immediately prior to this move.",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6568840": [
{
"text": "Which is the first part of this question.",
"start_ms": 6568840,
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"text": "And at the same time, I think the bigger question, is NVIDIA able to wean itself off of TSMC? Which is the first part of this question.",
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"text": "It's not like they're able to wean themselves off overnight. And at the same time, I think the bigger question, is NVIDIA able to wean itself off of TSMC? Which is the first part of this question.",
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"text": "I mean, and Ray's talked about this extensively, you know, getting real BCI where you've got, uh, you know, full up connectivity with your entire brain, uh, and you've got, you know, the ability to repair everything on a, on a subcellular basis.",
"start_ms": 5745232,
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_6390149": [
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"text": "It's not, doesn't feel as noisy.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2076628": [
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"text": "and have an incredibly ornate outcome just waiting for implementation.",
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{
"text": "In every, every area, you can, you can burn the 10 billion tokens in a couple of days-... and have an incredibly ornate outcome just waiting for implementation.",
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"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_2009428": [
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"text": "So my expectation is it will be the first successful interstellar mission.",
"start_ms": 1992388,
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{
"text": "that could be launched with the technology that we have today. So my expectation is it will be the first successful interstellar mission.",
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{
"text": "It's things going around in loops that are symmetric creating non-white noise, u- called color noise.",
"start_ms": 6414380,
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{
"text": "It's, it's fans. It's things going around in loops that are symmetric creating non-white noise, u- called color noise.",
"start_ms": 6413580,
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{
"text": "Well, the turbine, turbines are the same. It's, it's fans. It's things going around in loops that are symmetric creating non-white noise, u- called color noise.",
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],
"humanity_s_first_star_probe_architect_labs_beats_nvidia_3_4x_3447824": [
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"text": "If, if I want to send a mission to Alpha Centauri, why don't I just decide how I'm going to-- what is the metric of success, and I'll just pay for outcomes.",
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{
"text": "And then there's CPA, which is outcome-based pricing. If, if I want to send a mission to Alpha Centauri, why don't I just decide how I'm going to-- what is the metric of success, and I'll just pay for outcomes.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_4150380": [
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"text": "So, uh, first of all, I think the on- I, I was discounting when I said 90%.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_55500": [
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"text": "This is, I think, the, the question on the minds of many people I've spoken with: Are we alone?",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_185540": [
{
"text": "We're moving very quickly.",
"start_ms": 197080,
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{
"text": "right now we are, we are all, everybody at NASA, from leadership down to the engineers and technicians, we are having a great time right now. We're moving very quickly.",
"start_ms": 189880,
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{
"text": "I have plenty of time to screw things up, but I, I'll tell you-... right now we are, we are all, everybody at NASA, from leadership down to the engineers and technicians, we are having a great time right now. We're moving very quickly.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_112240": [
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"text": "He didn't come up through the regular route of being a member of the Astronaut Corps or a government agency. He's a builder.",
"start_ms": 106920,
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{
"text": "Let me take a moment to properly introduce Jared. He didn't come up through the regular route of being a member of the Astronaut Corps or a government agency. He's a builder.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3245580": [
{
"text": "to find out more, and really make sure that you're the CEO of your own health.",
"start_ms": 3258020,
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{
"text": "So check it out at fountainlife.com/peter to find out more, and really make sure that you're the CEO of your own health.",
"start_ms": 3254740,
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{
"text": "You can know, and it's your obligation to know. So check it out at fountainlife.com/peter to find out more, and really make sure that you're the CEO of your own health.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_1744532": [
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"text": "Uh, I think it's imperative that we do a lot of littles at first, um, which I, I, I think is fully akin to the Space Race in the 1960s.",
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{
"text": "Sure. Uh, I think it's imperative that we do a lot of littles at first, um, which I, I, I think is fully akin to the Space Race in the 1960s.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3933564": [
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"text": "How do you make long-term commitments when the budgeting cycle goes up and down like a yo-yo with the political cycles?",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_4595122": [
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"text": "So I have to ask you the biggest question, I, I think, and you, you maybe gestured at this earlier by speaking of NASA's ultimate mission as answering the big questions of are we alone.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_2590316": [
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"text": "So in a lot of ways, uh, they've drawn on the, of what worked well for NASA during that time period.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_2790456": [
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"text": "Nautilus was a diesel boat, uh, and it got repurposed to the nuclear sub.",
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{
"text": "So look, this is, this is what Nautilus was. Nautilus was a diesel boat, uh, and it got repurposed to the nuclear sub.",
"start_ms": 2794336,
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{
"text": "at INL that we're gonna use as the baseline for, um, for the reactor. So look, this is, this is what Nautilus was. Nautilus was a diesel boat, uh, and it got repurposed to the nuclear sub.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_2502360": [
{
"text": "We're going around and refocusing everybody back into that original direction.",
"start_ms": 2522500,
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{
"text": "Now, what are we doing at NASA? We're going around and refocusing everybody back into that original direction.",
"start_ms": 2521320,
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{
"text": "Now, or, or at least adding on a lot of other things, uh, that can distract from, uh, from its original intended purpose. Now, what are we doing at NASA? We're going around and refocusing everybody back into that original direction.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_619760": [
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"text": "Number one is, what have we missed, and what are we likely to miss?",
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{
"text": "And, and NASA's job, we, we submitted two overarching themes to leverage the Genesis program. Number one is, what have we missed, and what are we likely to miss?",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_2163548": [
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"text": "Interesting So, so then what does that mean for this race that's on right now?",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3804704": [
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"text": "And it's been a long time since on Earth we've had land grabs where, you know, \"Hey, our navy is finding new islands.",
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{
"text": "You know, when the SpaceX IPO came out, it, it was very, very clear that it's first come, first serve in lower orbit. And it's been a long time since on Earth we've had land grabs where, you know, \"Hey, our navy is finding new islands.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_25340": [
{
"text": "We don't wanna wait several years in between the next, uh, the next episode, right?",
"start_ms": 21100,
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{
"text": "We all enjoyed the headlines of Artemis II, it reminded us of what's possible and got us all excited. We don't wanna wait several years in between the next, uh, the next episode, right?",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3958604": [
{
"text": "Um, w- if that's not the right number, you know, what is?",
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{
"text": "I mean, I know some of the most, you know, extraordinary companies in the world were founded for far less, and have built some pretty impressive capabilities. Um, w- if that's not the right number, you know, what is?",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_4069480": [
{
"text": "Lot, lot of money.",
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{
"text": "$25 billion is a lot of money every year. Lot, lot of money.",
"start_ms": 4094940,
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},
{
"text": "It's focus. $25 billion is a lot of money every year. Lot, lot of money.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_640740": [
{
"text": "I mean, you know, 100 times the field of view of Hubble, 1,000 times the scan rate.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_1273232": [
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"text": "Uh, and you know, who's a, you know, who's a great example of this, uh, of focus?",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_2388220": [
{
"text": "The Chinese and their roadmap, uh, it will, it will lead to success.",
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{
"text": "Uh, right now, uh, China and the US for sure are both very committed to getting, uh, getting to the moon. The Chinese and their roadmap, uh, it will, it will lead to success.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3140420": [
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"text": "But, but I want, I would like to believe that by making investments in that, it's going to give us, I don't know, the hypergol thrusters that we need for, uh, to reduce the cost for landers on the Moon or, or Mars someday, you know?",
"start_ms": 3144880,
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3058500": [
{
"text": "You know, uh, asteroid mining has been this promise, Peter.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_2690536": [
{
"text": "We wanna be doing it annually.",
"start_ms": 2695656,
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},
{
"text": "We need, we, we, we, we can't get comfortable launching flagship missions every 10 years. We wanna be doing it annually.",
"start_ms": 2690976,
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},
{
"text": "We just need to do more of it. We need, we, we, we, we can't get comfortable launching flagship missions every 10 years. We wanna be doing it annually.",
"start_ms": 2689296,
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3450692": [
{
"text": "It's gonna happen in 2028.",
"start_ms": 3464972,
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},
{
"text": "So seems like we're on step one going to the moon. It's gonna happen in 2028.",
"start_ms": 3462532,
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3641193": [
{
"text": "So here we are in a moon race with China.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_2308260": [
{
"text": "Um, you know, there, there's a huge tension in geopolitics where the going to space is really kind of a humanity effort, and I love the way NASA's always positioned that way.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_1250412": [
{
"text": "You've s- you've kind of locked at, looked at this unbelievable transformation of NASA, where you have launch capacity, you have, uh, capital, you have technical expertise all locked up, but those are now becoming abundant.",
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{
"text": "Totally incredible. You've s- you've kind of locked at, looked at this unbelievable transformation of NASA, where you have launch capacity, you have, uh, capital, you have technical expertise all locked up, but those are now becoming abundant.",
"start_ms": 1250412,
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_4306440": [
{
"text": "I mean, the price of manufacturing is plummeting.",
"start_ms": 4324900,
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{
"text": "Can you imagine a time where you're, like, 10X-ing or 100X-ing the science missions out there with AI and, and robotics? I mean, the price of manufacturing is plummeting.",
"start_ms": 4317280,
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{
"text": "I mean, Dragonfly looking for the chemistry of life on Titan's pretty extraordinary. Can you imagine a time where you're, like, 10X-ing or 100X-ing the science missions out there with AI and, and robotics? I mean, the price of manufacturing is plummeting.",
"start_ms": 4312680,
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_1767112": [
{
"text": "So I think getting back to doing a lot of littles up front and learning what does and doesn't work to inform the next phase, uh, it worked very well for NASA in the 1960s.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3393682": [
{
"text": "So we can make investments in nuclear power and propulsion as part of the national space policy.",
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],
"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_2736276": [
{
"text": "billion on his, uh, nuclear power and propulsion spaceship.",
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{
"text": "Um, you know, it's funny, I, I think Politico put an article out today on, uh, you know, NASA administrator intends to spend $2.5 billion on his, uh, nuclear power and propulsion spaceship.",
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{
"text": "It's a lot of repurposed hardware, no doubt. Um, you know, it's funny, I, I think Politico put an article out today on, uh, you know, NASA administrator intends to spend $2.5 billion on his, uh, nuclear power and propulsion spaceship.",
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"text": "The most expensive part of doing that is not the nuclear fuel, it's not the modifications needed for lunar surface, it's...",
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"text": "we can't do everything for everyone anymore.",
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"text": "And NASA is something, that is something President Trump has been able to give us with our national space policy, and now a- actually global competition being in a second space race has enabled us to do is say-... we can't do everything for everyone anymore.",
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"text": "Uh, you know, a great example, I said, you know, we're thinking about repurposing something the taxpayer's already paid for, which is the engineering development unit of the Perseverance and Curiosity rover.",
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"text": "Uh, 2028, an aggressive timeline for landing on the Moon.",
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"text": "Let's talk about the Moon a second, Jared. Uh, 2028, an aggressive timeline for landing on the Moon.",
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"text": "Uh, we can dial it back to eight, and we still feel like we can, we can get where we wanna go,\" that's fine.",
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"text": "Uh, once a month is, uh, it's too much. Uh, we can dial it back to eight, and we still feel like we can, we can get where we wanna go,\" that's fine.",
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"text": "And, uh, and, and now, when a, you know, if a new administration comes in and says, \"You know what? Uh, once a month is, uh, it's too much. Uh, we can dial it back to eight, and we still feel like we can, we can get where we wanna go,\" that's fine.",
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"text": "But at the same time, orbital data centers have stolen the spotlight recently.",
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"text": "And you're, you're clearly the- your mindset is one of nonstop experimentation and learning.",
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"text": "So, but that's again, uh, you know, you, people, you know, that are far smarter than me are thinking out the long-term picture on that.",
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"text": "Uh, to me, this is all setting up for, uh, the day that astronauts plant the sm- stars and stripes on Mars.",
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"text": "The same is eq- I think equally applicable. Uh, to me, this is all setting up for, uh, the day that astronauts plant the sm- stars and stripes on Mars.",
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"text": "And outside of that, like, all this flexibility, but, but essentially to focus on one or two incredibly important things to the nation.",
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"text": "X dollars that go to Apollo, X dollars that go to Gemini,\" right? And outside of that, like, all this flexibility, but, but essentially to focus on one or two incredibly important things to the nation.",
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"text": "Your, your access to that AI, you know, being a government agency, like when Mythos came out, and now, you know, Fable V, uh, did you get preferential access, and can you use your government position to get the latest, greatest stuff?",
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"text": "I, again, I, I, in speaking with folks before this interview, this was the single biggest question they wanted me to ask you.",
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"text": "And if you go through those four tranches, I mean, I'm telling you, th- there, there, we have released video footage, photographic evidence, eyewitness account.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_511660": [
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"text": "Yeah, so, uh, good question.",
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"text": "Uh, building multiple factories to mass produce that hardware, multiple launch pads, and of course, you know, uh, you know, Blue Origin is, uh, New Glenn's vehicle w- you know, is gonna have, uh, obviously already proven reusability with the first stage.",
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"text": "Our, our, our, our science mission directorate budget's $7 billion a year.",
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"text": "Well, y- you know, when you have, uh, all of the capability, you know, w- with the, the, the biggest constraint for NASA, um, has always been the rate-limiting step, right?",
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"text": "Like, again, I do think foundational, our job is to go out and answer the questions, you know, are we alone?",
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"text": "You know, the Department of Commerce has a space office now. Like, again, I do think foundational, our job is to go out and answer the questions, you know, are we alone?",
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"text": "And, and look, I think even, uh, you know, even when we think about lower orbit and the orbital regimes that are available for data centers, comms, uh, there's a lot of opportunity there.",
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"text": "I mean, so there's no doubt.",
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"text": "A- a- a- and, and just initially, right? I mean, so there's no doubt.",
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"text": "Um, I, I have to ask, uh, Administrator, this is, I think, the, the question on the minds of many people I've spoken with who would just love to hear your perspective.",
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"text": "Beautiful. Um, I, I have to ask, uh, Administrator, this is, I think, the, the question on the minds of many people I've spoken with who would just love to hear your perspective.",
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"text": "You, you got a, a drone with a, with an IR camera that catches something flying in the bottom corner.",
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"text": "And, and there is absolutely, I mean, I can't tell you it's conclusive. You, you got a, a drone with a, with an IR camera that catches something flying in the bottom corner.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_3012380": [
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"text": "The next step is Mars.",
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"text": "And we're, we're lucky we've got a moon that's nearby to help us learn. The next step is Mars.",
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"text": "I, I mean, you know, the, the foreign, foreign policy is, uh, is established by the president and the secretary of state.",
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"text": "So I'm not being dismissive of any of the claims.",
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"text": "Like I said, this is what, this is a subject that if you are a true space enthusiast, if you're excited about, you should wanna know, you should be excited about. So I'm not being dismissive of any of the claims.",
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"text": "And people say that all the time, like, you know, it's your obligation for NASA to go to the moon and establish a lunar economy.",
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"text": "You know, launch observation and communications, those are the only things we know for sure. And people say that all the time, like, you know, it's your obligation for NASA to go to the moon and establish a lunar economy.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_481000": [
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"text": "But two questions for you.",
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"text": "Well, it's a, it's a, it's a really interesting question.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_2999080": [
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"text": "Um, but it's, it's just a step.",
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"text": "Uh, and that kinda goes to your advanced, you know, uh, spacecraft design.",
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"text": "The, the second category is extending our reach. Uh, and that kinda goes to your advanced, you know, uh, spacecraft design.",
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"text": "And that goes, kinda goes to the heart of, uh, NASA's mission of unlocking the secrets of universe. The, the second category is extending our reach. Uh, and that kinda goes to your advanced, you know, uh, spacecraft design.",
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"text": "And if it's gonna cost this much, then it better do even more than what I originally intended.",
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"text": "Instead, it's, uh, it's kind of collecting, uh, consolidating resources into the Department of Energy, which by the way, for a very long time, it's, you know, has had some pretty substantial, uh, computing power available to it.",
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"text": "But then there's other stuff that honestly we, we don't, we, we, we can't explain what it is, and the president is pushing it out.",
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"jared_isaacman_nasa_s_moon_base_by_2028_optimus_robots_on_th_284650": [
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"text": "when we were there.",
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"text": "They don't, they, they, I, I always describe it as we were, like, a solid par three away from the launchpad, uh-... when we were there.",
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"text": "Yeah. They don't, they, they, I, I always describe it as we were, like, a solid par three away from the launchpad, uh-... when we were there.",
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"text": "So when you ask the question of like, uh, look, we're going back, boots will be on the moon in 2028.",
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"text": "Uh, let alone, you know, the, the billions of other stars out there, the trillions of other galaxies, and all of the exoplanets that would be in Goldilocks zones.",
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"text": "This is our star system, right? Uh, let alone, you know, the, the billions of other stars out there, the trillions of other galaxies, and all of the exoplanets that would be in Goldilocks zones.",
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"text": "You know, on this podcast, we talk a lot about AI, exponentials, robotics, and have to imagine that living at this moment in the singularity, it's got a chance to really accelerate NASA's timeline across Moon, Mars, and everything else.",
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"text": "Like, I think the worst thing for NASA as, uh, the world's most accomplished space agency is trying to do, uh, you know, what the rest of industry is doing.",
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"text": "Well, I think, you know, again, I'm pretty excited about the, the, the TAM, you know, that SpaceX and others are pursuing right now with orbital data centers and such because, again, I don't...",
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"text": "And, and that's, that's something, again, that I think everybody, e- e- even in times of conflict, when we have airliners flying around the world, we, we, we're communicating with each other.",
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"text": "Uh, we obviously watch what they do and have an appreciation for their approach.",
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"text": "We're gonna start printing these things off.",
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"text": "We're gonna take advantage of the commercial market that exists today, the CLPS program that started years past. We're gonna start printing these things off.",
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"text": "We're gonna be dropping landers and rovers on a near monthly basis. We're gonna take advantage of the commercial market that exists today, the CLPS program that started years past. We're gonna start printing these things off.",
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"text": "So even fission power, by the way, is a huge step in the right direction for, uh, you know, for, um, for NASA outside of where industry should rightfully be trying to raise capital and put, uh, put their attention to it.",
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"text": "Right. That's huge.",
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"text": "I mean, you know, you, you, you, you know, whether you're, you're a space enthusiast or the head of NASA, don't you wanna know if there is, uh, intelligent life out there?",
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"text": "Yeah, I, look, I, I, I mean, it's what our job is here, right? I mean, you know, you, you, you, you know, whether you're, you're a space enthusiast or the head of NASA, don't you wanna know if there is, uh, intelligent life out there?",
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"text": "My, my position on this is that, uh...",
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"text": "But, but no doubt there is gonna be a time period where private and commercial will far outta- uh, overtake that in terms of the number of people living and working in space, on Moon, or elsewhere.",
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"text": "Again, like I, I think, you know, you're probably in that 15-year timeframe, um, at best.",
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"text": "That's a different timeframe. Again, like I, I think, you know, you're probably in that 15-year timeframe, um, at best.",
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"text": "that will free up a lot more resources for the next stop on this journey, which is, which is Mars. That's a different timeframe. Again, like I, I think, you know, you're probably in that 15-year timeframe, um, at best.",
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"text": "And that may not always be the fastest way, but if it doesn't require cryogenic refueling as a step to getting the boots on Mars, that's a win.",
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"text": "required. And that may not always be the fastest way, but if it doesn't require cryogenic refueling as a step to getting the boots on Mars, that's a win.",
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"text": "I think if you talk to some of the brightest minds here at NASA, they would give you almost 100% certainty that at one point there was microbial life on Mars.",
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"text": "So, uh, first of all, I think the on- I, I was discounting when I said 90%. I think if you talk to some of the brightest minds here at NASA, they would give you almost 100% certainty that at one point there was microbial life on Mars.",
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"text": "And we've put these videos out, and you can look at them, uh, and, and determine whether or not you, you think that to be the case.",
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"text": "in terms of what, uh what has to be made available to government in advance and whether it's optional or not.",
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"text": "Yeah, so I mean, I'm- I really have no interest in wading into any of the policy discussions-... in terms of what, uh what has to be made available to government in advance and whether it's optional or not.",
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"text": "what if it's everywhere?",
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"text": "lifespan, a health span of 120, it's an extraordinary claim.",
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"text": "But any way you define it, um, to get past, you know, even like 100 years to, you know, 120, being a healthy-... lifespan, a health span of 120, it's an extraordinary claim.",
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"text": "gaining more than a year of life. But any way you define it, um, to get past, you know, even like 100 years to, you know, 120, being a healthy-... lifespan, a health span of 120, it's an extraordinary claim.",
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"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1407542": [
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"text": "transplant list, most of whom will die before ever getting a kidney.",
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"text": "As your listeners probably know and viewers know, there are over, uh, 100,000 people on the kidney-... transplant list, most of whom will die before ever getting a kidney.",
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"text": "That will give us the ability to provide an unlimited supply of kidneys. As your listeners probably know and viewers know, there are over, uh, 100,000 people on the kidney-... transplant list, most of whom will die before ever getting a kidney.",
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"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__999384": [
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"text": "Yep. Two. That young.",
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"text": "of those, uh, grand openings.",
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"text": "Uh, Peter, you're actually of course invited to both-... of those, uh, grand openings.",
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"text": "I think one of the most elegant ways that we could contribute to doing that and, um, keep us outside of the Chinese-US AI competition is with regenerating bodies, because bodies always have a very short half life.",
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"text": "to create a unlimited LEV as soon as possible. I think one of the most elegant ways that we could contribute to doing that and, um, keep us outside of the Chinese-US AI competition is with regenerating bodies, because bodies always have a very short half life.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__655736": [
{
"text": "The whole space industry is an offshoot of that.",
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{
"text": "Your idea about prizing technology accomplishments with the XPRIZE, that has, that has created the whole new new space. The whole space industry is an offshoot of that.",
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{
"text": "That's, that's amazing. Yeah.",
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{
"text": "Uh, y- survival time of the xenotransplants, what is it up to now? That's, that's amazing. Yeah.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__33600": [
{
"text": "I believe we're there now, and I believe the current models will take us there.",
"start_ms": 33600,
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{
"text": "Next decade. I believe we're there now, and I believe the current models will take us there.",
"start_ms": 25580,
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{
"text": "highly correlated with every key marker of aging. Next decade. I believe we're there now, and I believe the current models will take us there.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2350408": [
{
"text": "Um, over the, from the'80s when we, we spent all our time with space settlements till now, I have become a total biotechnologist, so I know a lot about manufacturing a lot of organs.",
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{
"text": "It, it really is beyond my competence. Um, over the, from the'80s when we, we spent all our time with space settlements till now, I have become a total biotechnologist, so I know a lot about manufacturing a lot of organs.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__698356": [
{
"text": "You, uh, another mutual friend, uh, is Ray Kurzweil.",
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{
"text": "Um, I played a small role in that. You, uh, another mutual friend, uh, is Ray Kurzweil.",
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{
"text": "Thank you, my friend. Um, I played a small role in that. You, uh, another mutual friend, uh, is Ray Kurzweil.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__570556": [
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"text": "Um, s- you know, there are a lot of people who build successful companies, and then there are those who genuinely change the world.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Um, s- you know, there are a lot of people who build successful companies, and then there are those who genuinely change the world.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Yeah. Um, s- you know, there are a lot of people who build successful companies, and then there are those who genuinely change the world.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2728704": [
{
"text": "Just talk about these things openly.",
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{
"text": "He said, you know, \"There is, you know, like Roosevelt said, there's nothing to fear but fear itself.\" Just talk about these things openly.",
"start_ms": 2766344,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__929504": [
{
"text": "You don't respond to vaccines.",
"start_ms": 968544,
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},
{
"text": "That's why so many, uh, older people die of influenza. You don't respond to vaccines.",
"start_ms": 964564,
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},
{
"text": "When they start, uh, failing, you get opportunistic infections. That's why so many, uh, older people die of influenza. You don't respond to vaccines.",
"start_ms": 960854,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1061144": [
{
"text": "So take it a step deeper.",
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},
{
"text": "Amazing. So take it a step deeper.",
"start_ms": 1061144,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2093835": [
{
"text": "And that you don't need every single neuron.",
"start_ms": 2100356,
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},
{
"text": "that is, that will be indistinguishable from, from us or from them. And that you don't need every single neuron.",
"start_ms": 2095056,
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},
{
"text": "a simulacrum-... that is, that will be indistinguishable from, from us or from them. And that you don't need every single neuron.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1446812": [
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"text": "The beauty of that is those patients will not require any immunosuppressant at all.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2439877": [
{
"text": "I don't know if you remember this.",
"start_ms": 2446268,
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},
{
"text": "He had a, a train. I don't know if you remember this.",
"start_ms": 2444748,
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},
{
"text": "I visited his house in Princeton. He had a, a train. I don't know if you remember this.",
"start_ms": 2442748,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2903804": [
{
"text": "You know, great human being, genius at foreseeing so many technologies, you know, foundational investor in so many key companies, and that's where I am now.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1815136": [
{
"text": "You know, people...",
"start_ms": 1819856,
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{
"text": "So I, I believe we're there now, and I believe the current models will take us there. You know, people...",
"start_ms": 1815136,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__741624": [
{
"text": "Uh, the most exciting ones are usually very extraordinary.",
"start_ms": 763144,
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},
{
"text": "How about that?\" Uh, the most exciting ones are usually very extraordinary.",
"start_ms": 761564,
"lead_ms": 5480
},
{
"text": "\"How about this? How about that?\" Uh, the most exciting ones are usually very extraordinary.",
"start_ms": 760864,
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}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2409698": [
{
"text": "When he said that, uh, lunar, uh, regolith can give us all the mass we need for cosmic ray protect- protection in a island four, island five, uh, L- L4, L5 space settlement, he did all the numbers.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__720556": [
{
"text": "Uh, how, how do you feel we are on that timeline? Do you think...",
"start_ms": 730676,
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},
{
"text": "Making T-shirts about that. Uh, how, how do you feel we are on that timeline? Do you think...",
"start_ms": 728836,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1770840": [
{
"text": "So the, the AI is better than me. Yeah.",
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{
"text": "Which is actually better than I can do. So the, the AI is better than me. Yeah.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1077824": [
{
"text": "One of our main mantras here is multiple shots on goal.",
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{
"text": "Well, we have, uh, multiple thymic programs at United Therapeutics. One of our main mantras here is multiple shots on goal.",
"start_ms": 1071304,
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{
"text": "certain that it will be thymic rejuvenation therapy. Well, we have, uh, multiple thymic programs at United Therapeutics. One of our main mantras here is multiple shots on goal.",
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],
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"text": "Um, in addition to that, we have an autologous kidney program with- in our group called Iviva where we use the patient's own cells to create a brand-new kidney in a laboratory that matches their DNA exactly.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__604356": [
{
"text": "And if it can, then you're gonna change the world.",
"start_ms": 624216,
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{
"text": "So is that a technology that can be scaled to billions of people? And if it can, then you're gonna change the world.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2557284": [
{
"text": "Um, each person's life is, is as valuable as all of their assets that they have.",
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{
"text": "There is nothing that people will pay more for than life. Um, each person's life is, is as valuable as all of their assets that they have.",
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},
{
"text": "I would focus on providing, uh, LEV technology as quickly as possible. There is nothing that people will pay more for than life. Um, each person's life is, is as valuable as all of their assets that they have.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1364292": [
{
"text": "Oh, yes I'm sure we will. Yeah.",
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{
"text": "So let's give ourselves one or two more years, then 2033. Oh, yes I'm sure we will. Yeah.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2130756": [
{
"text": "And if at the end of the day somebody says, \"Well, you've only got, like, 95% of the goal achieved,\" I'll say, \"I'll take it.\"",
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{
"text": "And as an entrepreneur, what I always do in my companies is I find, like, a simpler, faster way to get to the same goal. And if at the end of the day somebody says, \"Well, you've only got, like, 95% of the goal achieved,\" I'll say, \"I'll take it.\"",
"start_ms": 2117596,
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{
"text": "I... And as an entrepreneur, what I always do in my companies is I find, like, a simpler, faster way to get to the same goal. And if at the end of the day somebody says, \"Well, you've only got, like, 95% of the goal achieved,\" I'll say, \"I'll take it.\"",
"start_ms": 2117416,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1740840": [
{
"text": "because there was no latency.",
"start_ms": 1760180,
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},
{
"text": "People were fricking blown away-... because there was no latency.",
"start_ms": 1757880,
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{
"text": "I got, uh, Ray Kurzweil on the stage with the Marvatarr at the 50th anniversary of AI at UCLA, and, um, there was a 2,000-person audience, all AI experts. People were fricking blown away-... because there was no latency.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__867234": [
{
"text": "If they need something that has to be replaced, we could replace the organ, and then ultimately we can renew their life the way, um, Lazarus Long's life was renewed in Time Enough for Life, uh-... for love Yeah.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__831234": [
{
"text": "Because I don't have enough confidence that we'll achieve it by any specific, uh, uh, year.",
"start_ms": 834364,
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},
{
"text": "Okay? Because I don't have enough confidence that we'll achieve it by any specific, uh, uh, year.",
"start_ms": 834044,
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},
{
"text": "It's beyond my risk profile. Okay? Because I don't have enough confidence that we'll achieve it by any specific, uh, uh, year.",
"start_ms": 832224,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1188992": [
{
"text": "Let me tell you an amazing thing.",
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{
"text": "So there's no immune system question whatsoever. Let me tell you an amazing thing.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1476970": [
{
"text": "Allowed us to go straight to a phase three or phase less clinical trial.",
"start_ms": 1485400,
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},
{
"text": "So now the FDA said, \"Based on that, you guys go ahead and do a full-blown clinical trial.\" Allowed us to go straight to a phase three or phase less clinical trial.",
"start_ms": 1480640,
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{
"text": "They had all these other diseases. So now the FDA said, \"Based on that, you guys go ahead and do a full-blown clinical trial.\" Allowed us to go straight to a phase three or phase less clinical trial.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__343900": [
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"text": "Well, there's no real substitute for talking to people, and I find experts in the area and I start talking with them.",
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{
"text": "Sure. Well, there's no real substitute for talking to people, and I find experts in the area and I start talking with them.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1545960": [
{
"text": "I don't know if you saw his, his post on that. Yeah.",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, Dario saying AI could potentially double the human lifespan. I don't know if you saw his, his post on that. Yeah.",
"start_ms": 1540640,
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}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__229040": [
{
"text": "And we'll dive, we'll dive into that.",
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},
{
"text": "basically eliminating the shortage of transplantable organs, and not only just building human organs, but building them, taking multiple different, uh, strategies to creating a abundant supply of organs. And we'll dive, we'll dive into that.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__397876": [
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"text": "Um, so again, George was ahead of the curve there.",
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{
"text": "in Thymune. Um, so again, George was ahead of the curve there.",
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{
"text": "One of his companies he recently started, um, actually Thymune, a company we just bought, he was the first shareholder-... in Thymune. Um, so again, George was ahead of the curve there.",
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2780784": [
{
"text": "That's, um, there's bad things in the universe.",
"start_ms": 2784484,
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},
{
"text": "Of course, there's always gonna be, like, you know, bad players. That's, um, there's bad things in the universe.",
"start_ms": 2780784,
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},
{
"text": "My whole Virtual Human book talks about how we need good AI to be on top of bad AI. Of course, there's always gonna be, like, you know, bad players. That's, um, there's bad things in the universe.",
"start_ms": 2774184,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__455926": [
{
"text": "Like, if you see something when you're...",
"start_ms": 464476,
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{
"text": "And if it has no merit, um, I just, like, register it away in the, in the, like, the brain is like, \"Okay, that's situational awareness.\" Like, if you see something when you're...",
"start_ms": 455956,
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},
{
"text": "I, I definitely don't take it personally. And if it has no merit, um, I just, like, register it away in the, in the, like, the brain is like, \"Okay, that's situational awareness.\" Like, if you see something when you're...",
"start_ms": 454066,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__682636": [
{
"text": "the outer space and then back to the Earth.",
"start_ms": 682656,
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{
"text": "But there wouldn't have been those things had you not reignited the space race with Virgin Atlantic and, and the, you know, to the-... the outer space and then back to the Earth.",
"start_ms": 675896,
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},
{
"text": "Everybody's eyes are on SpaceX. But there wouldn't have been those things had you not reignited the space race with Virgin Atlantic and, and the, you know, to the-... the outer space and then back to the Earth.",
"start_ms": 673396,
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}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1708520": [
{
"text": "I first built a, um, digital, uh, s- uh, doppelganger of my wife, Bina. Yeah.",
"start_ms": 1702600,
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},
{
"text": "So I've been working on this a long time. I first built a, um, digital, uh, s- uh, doppelganger of my wife, Bina. Yeah.",
"start_ms": 1700740,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2675594": [
{
"text": "And talk about awesomeness.",
"start_ms": 2684784,
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},
{
"text": "What good is the money if you're not alive to spend it? And talk about awesomeness.",
"start_ms": 2675594,
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],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2109256": [
{
"text": "You don't need it.",
"start_ms": 2116156,
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},
{
"text": "to actually, you know, uh, put a neuro, neuro nanobot on every single neuron. You don't need it.",
"start_ms": 2111406,
"lead_ms": 6010
},
{
"text": "So it's, it's overkill-... to actually, you know, uh, put a neuro, neuro nanobot on every single neuron. You don't need it.",
"start_ms": 2109256,
"lead_ms": 8160
}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1374232": [
{
"text": "Uh, that one we're manufacturing in, um, Christiansburg, Virginia.",
"start_ms": 1374232,
"lead_ms": 4660
},
{
"text": "We're in the middle of a- another, uh, clinical trial approved by the FDA for the, uh, kidney, the xeno-kidney. Uh, that one we're manufacturing in, um, Christiansburg, Virginia.",
"start_ms": 1365832,
"lead_ms": 13060
},
{
"text": "They're all doing very, very well. We're in the middle of a- another, uh, clinical trial approved by the FDA for the, uh, kidney, the xeno-kidney. Uh, that one we're manufacturing in, um, Christiansburg, Virginia.",
"start_ms": 1364552,
"lead_ms": 14340
}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1503800": [
{
"text": "It should be indefinite.",
"start_ms": 1513680,
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},
{
"text": "So it's like a million people a year. It should be indefinite.",
"start_ms": 1506720,
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},
{
"text": "And unfortunately, that's like- Yeah, unfortunately. So it's like a million people a year. It should be indefinite.",
"start_ms": 1503900,
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}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__156340": [
{
"text": "Um, and I wanna take a second.",
"start_ms": 159140,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, you know, we talk a lot about moonshots on this podcast. Um, and I wanna take a second.",
"start_ms": 156340,
"lead_ms": 5700
},
{
"text": "Uh... Uh, you know, we talk a lot about moonshots on this podcast. Um, and I wanna take a second.",
"start_ms": 154100,
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}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2581284": [
{
"text": "If they are wanting to kill themselves, it's because they're not well. Okay?",
"start_ms": 2577224,
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},
{
"text": "Um, each person's life is, is as valuable as all of their assets that they have. If they are wanting to kill themselves, it's because they're not well. Okay?",
"start_ms": 2570744,
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}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2691564": [
{
"text": "to give us the resources for endless life?",
"start_ms": 2688664,
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},
{
"text": "How cool is it that AI is here right now-... to give us the resources for endless life?",
"start_ms": 2686224,
"lead_ms": 5340
},
{
"text": "And talk about awesomeness. How cool is it that AI is here right now-... to give us the resources for endless life?",
"start_ms": 2684784,
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}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1170302": [
{
"text": "But we also have an autologous program, which means your own DNA.",
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}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1924556": [
{
"text": "So I should do that.",
"start_ms": 1905316,
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},
{
"text": "you know. So I should do that.",
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}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2651544": [
{
"text": "Yeah, I think there is no wealth greater than your health.",
"start_ms": 2658924,
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},
{
"text": "Mm-hmm. Yeah, I think there is no wealth greater than your health.",
"start_ms": 2651544,
"lead_ms": 11160
}
],
"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__2185888": [
{
"text": "Full body. Full body.",
"start_ms": 2174936,
"lead_ms": 10952
},
{
"text": "And, um, both of us are signed up to be fully cryonicized. Full body. Full body.",
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"text": "So I've been working on this a long time.",
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"text": "And everything I've seen since that time, uh, validates, uh, you know, the predictions of Minsky, Moravec, and Kurzweil. So I've been working on this a long time.",
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"martine_rothblatt_growing_unlimited_organs_ai_consciousness__1132052": [
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"text": "there are again multiple shots on goal, so allogenic is, uh, is simpler, and the thymus has a head start because the thymus is what actually tunes your immune system.",
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"text": "Right now Right, yeah.",
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"text": "We are the space age children. Yeah.",
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"text": "But we were born just at the right point in time. We are the space age children. Yeah.",
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"text": "And finally, we announced just, um, just actually last month the, uh, acquisition of Thymiune-...",
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"text": "So even the third, um, avenue is we have an unlimited supply of xenothymi or, or xenothymuses in addition to the allothymus and the autologous thymus. And finally, we announced just, um, just actually last month the, uh, acquisition of Thymiune-...",
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"text": "Uh, it's a prize, uh, uh, we have 830 teams competing, and the goal is reverse your functional age by 20 years.",
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"text": "Speaking of large prizes, our largest XPRIZE right now, it's, uh, the $101 million XPRIZE Healthspan. Uh, it's a prize, uh, uh, we have 830 teams competing, and the goal is reverse your functional age by 20 years.",
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"text": "Mm. Speaking of large prizes, our largest XPRIZE right now, it's, uh, the $101 million XPRIZE Healthspan. Uh, it's a prize, uh, uh, we have 830 teams competing, and the goal is reverse your functional age by 20 years.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_132240": [
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"text": "Uh, and you're in the thick of it.",
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"text": "So Michael, we are arguably living during the most extraordinary time ever in human history, where science and technology is, is hyper exponential. Uh, and you're in the thick of it.",
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"text": "Enjoy. So Michael, we are arguably living during the most extraordinary time ever in human history, where science and technology is, is hyper exponential. Uh, and you're in the thick of it.",
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"text": "Do you imagine on your grand challenges, you know, I, I talking to Elon about this.",
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"text": "Do you imagine that the government would put out, uh, like, billion dollar incentive prizes, or are these gonna be small? Do you imagine on your grand challenges, you know, I, I talking to Elon about this.",
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"text": "Think of it kind of as like, uh, as weather data.",
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"text": "That- that's, that's data that, that is a public good and, and anyone can use it. Think of it kind of as like, uh, as weather data.",
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"text": "So I, I think those are, those are public goods. That- that's, that's data that, that is a public good and, and anyone can use it. Think of it kind of as like, uh, as weather data.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3535224": [
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"text": "So I think we, we have a lot to improve in this country, and I think on, on my side, when I think about kinda how do you integrate STEM in these, in- into these organizations, that's where my sort of portfolio usually goes.",
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"text": "So this is the spot.",
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"text": "And then most recently, science, a new golden age, his blueprint for rewarding bold, unconventional ideas and dramatically increasing the rate of scientific discovery. So this is the spot.",
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"text": "to accelerate breakthrough discoveries. And then most recently, science, a new golden age, his blueprint for rewarding bold, unconventional ideas and dramatically increasing the rate of scientific discovery. So this is the spot.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_53460": [
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"text": "Today I have the pleasure of interviewing a friend, Michael Kratsios.",
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"text": "Welcome to Moonshots, everybody. Today I have the pleasure of interviewing a friend, Michael Kratsios.",
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"text": "Uh- Now that's a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Moonshots, everybody. Today I have the pleasure of interviewing a friend, Michael Kratsios.",
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"text": "I've got my robots on order.",
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"text": "Um, you know, uh, I love robots. I've got my robots on order.",
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"text": "Let's talk about robots one second. Um, you know, uh, I love robots. I've got my robots on order.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3162549": [
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"text": "You've got states and, and cities, and we just, uh, created a map I'll show you after this that, uh, that Max put together looking at this across the U.S.",
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"text": "Right? You've got states and, and cities, and we just, uh, created a map I'll show you after this that, uh, that Max put together looking at this across the U.S.",
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"text": "Um, interesting, uh, some states and cities are far more pro-tech than others. Right? You've got states and, and cities, and we just, uh, created a map I'll show you after this that, uh, that Max put together looking at this across the U.S.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_650206": [
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"text": "So I think for us, you asked kind of a positive take on it.",
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"text": "Like, I think those are the things that, that people, people get worked up, and it shouldn't surprise us that, that the PR is bad. So I think for us, you asked kind of a positive take on it.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2576948": [
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"text": "'cause I think it's, it's very powerful.",
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"text": "I'm gonna read a paraphrase from your report-...'cause I think it's, it's very powerful.",
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"text": "Thanks for your work.",
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"text": "Michael, thank you so much, buddy. Thanks for your work.",
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"text": "Amazing. Michael, thank you so much, buddy. Thanks for your work.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2945020": [
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"text": "You know, today in the United States, the average life expectancy is about 78, 79.",
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"text": "And it's really healthspan versus aging. You know, today in the United States, the average life expectancy is about 78, 79.",
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"text": "That if you could enable people to have... And it's really healthspan versus aging. You know, today in the United States, the average life expectancy is about 78, 79.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3271270": [
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"text": "innovative technology.",
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"text": "What you essentially had, you had communities stand up and say, \"Hi, I want to have this-... innovative technology.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_169109": [
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"text": "And that's like going from the Ford Model T to the Starship in the next 10 years.",
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"text": "Uh, Ray Kurzweil predicts we're gonna see as much progress in the next decade as we've seen in the last century. And that's like going from the Ford Model T to the Starship in the next 10 years.",
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"text": "You're in the middle of it, right? Uh, Ray Kurzweil predicts we're gonna see as much progress in the next decade as we've seen in the last century. And that's like going from the Ford Model T to the Starship in the next 10 years.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3808672": [
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"text": "I think universities are gonna be probably one of the, the first folks to build these labs.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2042798": [
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"text": "associated with their grant, and that is one of the most depressing statistics I can think of.",
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"text": "President Milei, uh, Argentina comes forward and says, \"We're going to-- no taxes on AI companies.",
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"text": "Okay, one more side question. President Milei, uh, Argentina comes forward and says, \"We're going to-- no taxes on AI companies.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_256220": [
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"text": "Think of, um, commercial drone operations.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3286010": [
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"text": "Um, and one of them was actually around this.",
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"text": "We launched something, um, called the American AI Exports Program, and the vision behind it was, look, we have the best AI stack in the world.",
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"text": "To, to operationalize the-- Well, you mentioned the AI action plan. We launched something, um, called the American AI Exports Program, and the vision behind it was, look, we have the best AI stack in the world.",
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"text": "No, we think about this a lot. To, to operationalize the-- Well, you mentioned the AI action plan. We launched something, um, called the American AI Exports Program, and the vision behind it was, look, we have the best AI stack in the world.",
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"text": "I mean, we're going, putting man back on the moon in'28.",
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"text": "We as a government need to be opinionated about what the most important things are for the future of our nation. I mean, we're going, putting man back on the moon in'28.",
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"text": "AI's gonna impact every single one of you. We as a government need to be opinionated about what the most important things are for the future of our nation. I mean, we're going, putting man back on the moon in'28.",
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"text": "I mean, we're going, putting man back on the moon in'28.",
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"text": "and Jared about, about very recently. I mean, we're going, putting man back on the moon in'28.",
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"text": "An example of that, um, is all of the space-related efforts that you, I think, talked to Administrator Isakson-... and Jared about, about very recently. I mean, we're going, putting man back on the moon in'28.",
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"text": "So to us, we believe that you have to, and this is again how do we support scientists?",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3344714": [
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"text": "And, and I think, um, it has a good thing.",
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"text": "when the rules changed. And, and I think, um, it has a good thing.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1534200": [
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"text": "It started, um, certainly in Trump 1, and that's why the, the EUV lithography, um, export controls were so critical.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_609276": [
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"text": "This, this was, I mean, was it two, three years ago?",
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"text": "Way back, yeah. This, this was, I mean, was it two, three years ago?",
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"text": "a few years ago under, under Rishi. Way back, yeah. This, this was, I mean, was it two, three years ago?",
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"text": "So to me, I think grant duration is something that people don't talk about enough.",
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"text": "Yeah, yeah. So to me, I think grant duration is something that people don't talk about enough.",
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"text": "Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So to me, I think grant duration is something that people don't talk about enough.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3213080": [
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"text": "Where is it doesn't?",
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"text": "Where does it work? Where is it doesn't?",
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"text": "How do we get people to actually start running the tests of, like, what is it like to try to do deliveries? Where does it work? Where is it doesn't?",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3398814": [
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"text": "Mm-hmm And that's been, and that's what the data shows.",
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"text": "Mm-hmm Mm-hmm You know, I think, I think every, every company will think about it differently.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2141908": [
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"text": "And I think this structure tends to, I think, not be the way that is conducive to, to discovery.",
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"text": "So organizations like the Export-Import Bank and the Development Finance Corporation can provide financing to make these more, um, uh, more economical.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3745952": [
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"text": "Go online Yeah And I love also the vision you had where, you know, a high school kid could potentially do that.",
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"text": "Yes. Go online Yeah And I love also the vision you had where, you know, a high school kid could potentially do that.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_186180": [
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"text": "You know, I, I typically, typically think of technologies kind of in, in two buckets.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_222520": [
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"text": "is get outta the way.",
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"text": "So born free technologies are things like what the internet was in the 1990s, and the best thing that the government can do in those situations is to step back-... is get outta the way.",
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"text": "And, uh, it's m- sort of my home turf.",
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"text": "So I've spent my, you know, 30 years of my life focused on incentive prizes. And, uh, it's m- sort of my home turf.",
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"text": "Appreciate it. So I've spent my, you know, 30 years of my life focused on incentive prizes. And, uh, it's m- sort of my home turf.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_4102163": [
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"text": "and breakthroughs occur, does, does the value of that breakthrough inure to the American people?",
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"text": "When that-- By the way, when that data gets, uh, brought in, let's say wholesale health data from NIH and, and such-... and breakthroughs occur, does, does the value of that breakthrough inure to the American people?",
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"text": "Uh, uh, uh, Eroom's law, right?",
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"text": "Um, so the first point you make is that scientific productivity has been declining despite larger budgets. Uh, uh, uh, Eroom's law, right?",
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"text": "It was like you went much further than I expected you sort of naming ideas, and we'll, we'll get to those. Um, so the first point you make is that scientific productivity has been declining despite larger budgets. Uh, uh, uh, Eroom's law, right?",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1964648": [
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"text": "And I think it's most probably relevant in the, in the biomedical field where the NI- the NIH budget now has ballooned to almost, like, $45 billion, yet the cost of drugs is more expensive than ever.",
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"text": "Our budgets are more than we ever have. And I think it's most probably relevant in the, in the biomedical field where the NI- the NIH budget now has ballooned to almost, like, $45 billion, yet the cost of drugs is more expensive than ever.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1760660": [
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"text": "Now, honestly, I think Elon is the most brilliant engineer on the planet.",
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"text": "We're gonna have, uh, anything or anything you could possibly want will be delivered by AI and robotics.\" Now, honestly, I think Elon is the most brilliant engineer on the planet.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2720340": [
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"text": "Yes They're doing, they're doing really incredible work, and I think when we think about, you know, and, and I think kind of one of the underlying or main premises of the whole Golden Age report is that the science ecosystem has changed.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2536808": [
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"text": "Like, let's do some fast track grants, and let's see what are the types that work, what are the ones that aren't, and then update, and the next, the next, um, iteration of them is even better, and we as a government just don't do that.",
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"text": "I mean, I just heard from, uh, from, from Jensen was here, and he was talking about kind of the supply chain that supports Nvidia.",
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"text": "These are great stories. I mean, I just heard from, uh, from, from Jensen was here, and he was talking about kind of the supply chain that supports Nvidia.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2747670": [
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"text": "You know, 70% of, um, R&D was done by the federal government, and 30 was done by the private sector, and that has, like, flipped entirely today.",
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"text": "In 1951, Endless Frontier was written by, by Vannevar Bush, that kicked all this off. You know, 70% of, um, R&D was done by the federal government, and 30 was done by the private sector, and that has, like, flipped entirely today.",
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"text": "to models, and have not been part of the scientific process.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2170838": [
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"text": "And if that, and, and, and I think that, I think there's, there's huge opportunities to kind of reform that.",
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"text": "Yeah. And if that, and, and, and I think that, I think there's, there's huge opportunities to kind of reform that.",
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"text": "It's the way to, like, how you succeed in a, in sort of a, in academic setting. Yeah. And if that, and, and, and I think that, I think there's, there's huge opportunities to kind of reform that.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3412524": [
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"text": "We have to address the water issue as well, which, uh, you know, we've talked about a lot of times on the pod.",
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"text": "The, the locations with AI data centers are getting on average lower, uh, electrical cost. We have to address the water issue as well, which, uh, you know, we've talked about a lot of times on the pod.",
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"text": "And that's been, and that's what the data shows. The, the locations with AI data centers are getting on average lower, uh, electrical cost. We have to address the water issue as well, which, uh, you know, we've talked about a lot of times on the pod.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3942912": [
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"text": "Now it's seven five. Exactly.",
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"text": "You know, Anthropic revenue was at, what is it, 10, was it $10 billion? Now it's seven five. Exactly.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1162860": [
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"text": "Uh, where is the policy today?",
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"text": "So Jensen comes out with the open, uh, open secure AI alliance. Uh, where is the policy today?",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2999820": [
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"text": "Uh, a lot of folks believe aging is a disease that can be at least slowed, if not-... if not cured.",
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"text": "Yeah. Uh, a lot of folks believe aging is a disease that can be at least slowed, if not-... if not cured.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_560876": [
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"text": "You know, why is there so much resistance?",
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"text": "So I guess the question is, how does the administration get out in front of this? You know, why is there so much resistance?",
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"text": "you know, reduce fear. So I guess the question is, how does the administration get out in front of this? You know, why is there so much resistance?",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1910628": [
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"text": "And I think this goes back to kind of one of the, one of the main, um, sort of reasons why, why we wrote this report.",
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"text": "unable to, to change the way that we conduct science. And I think this goes back to kind of one of the, one of the main, um, sort of reasons why, why we wrote this report.",
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"text": "um, been, uh, unable to, or, um, or, or just don't, don't... unable to, to change the way that we conduct science. And I think this goes back to kind of one of the, one of the main, um, sort of reasons why, why we wrote this report.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_19200": [
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"text": "My sense is, um- AI is a technology that is gonna impact every agency, whether you're flying drones, whether you're doing AI-powered medical diagnostics, whether you're, like, in at the SEC and working on financial services.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1380100": [
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"text": "We're now looking at those proposals, and ultimately we're gonna create essentially, like, turnkey American AI stack, um, options for the world.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3569464": [
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"text": "To me, one of the most sort of depressing things about, about sort of American education today is just the declining number of American students that wanna enter the STEM fields.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_4182444": [
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"text": "Um, and there's a lot the government can do to do that, but most importantly, we just have to kind of, you know, let our horses run.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3694692": [
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"text": "Yeah, yeah. Mm-hmm.",
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"text": "yeah. Yeah, yeah. Mm-hmm.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1719230": [
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"text": "uh, in, I think in December of last year.",
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"text": "I do, and I think the best example of that is, um, we took a similar action around UAS or drones-... uh, in, I think in December of last year.",
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"text": "I do. I do, and I think the best example of that is, um, we took a similar action around UAS or drones-... uh, in, I think in December of last year.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_996086": [
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"text": "And I think what my, my general take is, you know, we as a government need to be opinionated about what the most important things are for the future of our nation.",
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"text": "in golden age. And I think what my, my general take is, you know, we as a government need to be opinionated about what the most important things are for the future of our nation.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1121500": [
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"text": "I do honestly believe that the types of calculation you can run on those for the, for particular molecules and, and things that you want to apply towards, toward drugs is gonna be, is gonna be pretty transformational.",
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"text": "where, where I'm most excited about. I do honestly believe that the types of calculation you can run on those for the, for particular molecules and, and things that you want to apply towards, toward drugs is gonna be, is gonna be pretty transformational.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2983040": [
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"text": "Well, now that you mention it, uh, we, we probably should have included it.",
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"text": "Mm-hmm Yeah. Well, now that you mention it, uh, we, we probably should have included it.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_629896": [
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"text": "And we collectively, as the smartest people in the world, and the, like, most important government leaders must come together to make sure that these harms don't, don't impact the world around us.",
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"text": "What could go wrong? And we collectively, as the smartest people in the world, and the, like, most important government leaders must come together to make sure that these harms don't, don't impact the world around us.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_918856": [
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"text": "You know, uh, so on the notion of fear,'cause it's one of the things I'm always trying to quelch and address-... right?",
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"text": "Yeah. You know, uh, so on the notion of fear,'cause it's one of the things I'm always trying to quelch and address-... right?",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_524336": [
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"text": "Um, the challenge of course right now is that three quarters of Americans fear AI.",
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"text": "uh, every aspect of an American's lives, and I think we both feel that very deeply, right? Um, the challenge of course right now is that three quarters of Americans fear AI.",
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"text": "Fundamentally, it's gonna uplift every American-... uh, every aspect of an American's lives, and I think we both feel that very deeply, right? Um, the challenge of course right now is that three quarters of Americans fear AI.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_756925": [
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"text": "It's, it's, it's lifting up the entire-...",
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"text": "Yeah. It's, it's, it's lifting up the entire-...",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3422844": [
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"text": "Uh, it's, uh, it's quarter report, you, you hit it on chapter four.",
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"text": "Um, let's talk about education. Uh, it's, uh, it's quarter report, you, you hit it on chapter four.",
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"text": "Interesting Yeah. Um, let's talk about education. Uh, it's, uh, it's quarter report, you, you hit it on chapter four.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1233540": [
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"text": "Um, but I think the, the ecosystem and the tooling around open source continues to get much, much better, and the US is continuing to be sort of the, the default sort of harnesses and, and tools around, around open source.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3674664": [
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"text": "Um, so this is something you and I talk about that Lila Sciences is doing.",
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"text": "I mean, you're basically running closed, closed loop science at machine speeds. Um, so this is something you and I talk about that Lila Sciences is doing.",
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"text": "The majority's done in the private sector, and, uh, and only about 30% is funded by, by the federal government. Yeah.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3377104": [
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"text": "where essentially directed all these, all these big tech companies and AI companies and data center builders to build, bring, or buy all their own power.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3441944": [
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"text": "Uh, it's not tied for what's coming, and, uh, we're seeing, you know, huge resistance of high schools and even colleges to, to use this, and it should be just the flip.",
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"text": "it, at least in the US, still tied to the Industrial Revolution. Uh, it's not tied for what's coming, and, uh, we're seeing, you know, huge resistance of high schools and even colleges to, to use this, and it should be just the flip.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3988062": [
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"text": "We look at how do you structure the situation such that AI is able to, you know, it's already, to use Alex's word, cooking math, right?",
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"text": "It's at solveeverything.org. We look at how do you structure the situation such that AI is able to, you know, it's already, to use Alex's word, cooking math, right?",
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"text": "Uh, uh, Alex Weiser Gross and I wrote a paper called Solve Everything. It's at solveeverything.org. We look at how do you structure the situation such that AI is able to, you know, it's already, to use Alex's word, cooking math, right?",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_941736": [
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"text": "'Cause part of the challenge for me is that, uh, you know, films like Terminator, Ex Machina, Black Mirror, majority of all the sci-fi films out there are dystopian.",
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"text": "uh, where technology and AI is working together.'Cause part of the challenge for me is that, uh, you know, films like Terminator, Ex Machina, Black Mirror, majority of all the sci-fi films out there are dystopian.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_304780": [
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"text": "do people here in the White House understand the speed of that change?",
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"text": "Uh, if we're gonna see this kind of extraordinary progress to AGI and ASI in three years-... do people here in the White House understand the speed of that change?",
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"text": "I'm, I'm thinking about the timeframe you've got. Uh, if we're gonna see this kind of extraordinary progress to AGI and ASI in three years-... do people here in the White House understand the speed of that change?",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1658440": [
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"text": "Mm-hmm Um, I think we have to do more of it.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3712592": [
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"text": "But, but I think that's a future that we wanna try to achieve.",
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"text": "So I think we'll probably start in more narrow domains and then expand as the, as the actual hardware comes itself. But, but I think that's a future that we wanna try to achieve.",
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"text": "a, a, as a wide range of experiences you would want. So I think we'll probably start in more narrow domains and then expand as the, as the actual hardware comes itself. But, but I think that's a future that we wanna try to achieve.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3630274": [
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"text": "obviously they started with, like, running the schools themselves in certain locations and, you know, it's not necessarily that cheap, so there's only certain people that can, that can participate in it.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_688316": [
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"text": "Is there any effort to try and change the narrative from a, um, I, I guess from a centralized sense? Right?",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1066306": [
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"text": "And I think that plus some of the other national missions can kind of do that inspiring- Yeah, I think the other one, it doesn't have quite a qui- uh, it, it's sort of the, the, the Genesis mission, which is our AI for science mission.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1014996": [
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"text": "We had bold things that we-...",
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"text": "And there was an era, beginning with the Manhattan Project, going through Apollo, that we had big ideas. We had bold things that we-...",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2686680": [
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"text": "Well, look, my, my hope is that this, this inspires some folks.",
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"text": "Actually come true. Well, look, my, my hope is that this, this inspires some folks.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1415440": [
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"text": "And, and sort of between the export controls we have in place and other factors that are going on, particularly on, on EUV, you know, our, our lead over where the best Chinese chip is, is continues to increase year over year.",
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"text": "People-- You don't feel the cancer until stage three or stage four, and, and if you don't know what's going on inside your body, it's like driving your car with your eyes closed, and you can know.",
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"text": "Yeah, you know, it's interesting. People-- You don't feel the cancer until stage three or stage four, and, and if you don't know what's going on inside your body, it's like driving your car with your eyes closed, and you can know.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2083547": [
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"text": "um, t- showed that they're able to fly over Mach 1 without creating a sonic boom.",
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"text": "And the reality is I think research has shown, and, and I think Boom Supersonic, a company-... um, t- showed that they're able to fly over Mach 1 without creating a sonic boom.",
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"text": "Sonic boom. And the reality is I think research has shown, and, and I think Boom Supersonic, a company-... um, t- showed that they're able to fly over Mach 1 without creating a sonic boom.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_325240": [
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"text": "And it's not just at one agency, it's across all of government.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_806316": [
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"text": "I mean, personally, I believe kind of in, in the long term, um, I'm very optimistic about the impact that, that AI is gonna have, have on jobs.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3491494": [
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"text": "Um, we always have to put, in my opinion, the parents first.",
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"text": "To, to me, on education, I think, um, it's something that we think a lot about for a lot of tech, tech domains. Um, we always have to put, in my opinion, the parents first.",
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"text": "Mm-hmm. To, to me, on education, I think, um, it's something that we think a lot about for a lot of tech, tech domains. Um, we always have to put, in my opinion, the parents first.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_821736": [
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"text": "Um, but, but I, I do think it's something we have to think about, and I think we've put in some programs that, that start to, to hit at this problem.",
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"text": "Yeah, when we were thinking about the two X number, that's actually a number from, from last year when we were actually building, um, what ultimately was s- building the program that the president signed as the Genesis mission in, in December.",
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"text": "Yeah. Yeah, when we were thinking about the two X number, that's actually a number from, from last year when we were actually building, um, what ultimately was s- building the program that the president signed as the Genesis mission in, in December.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2462948": [
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"text": "Mm, because they, they have power. Yeah. Yeah.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1729129": [
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"text": "And if you look at the numbers of the, the investment that went into essentially sort of drone supply chain since that action has been pretty, pretty dramatic.",
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"text": "uh, in, I think in December of last year. And if you look at the numbers of the, the investment that went into essentially sort of drone supply chain since that action has been pretty, pretty dramatic.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1506580": [
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"text": "I think that was probably one of the, the, the savviest, uh, decisions that we made as an administration, and I, and, and I think it was probably one of the most impactful in being able to throttle their ability to, to make competitive, uh, models to ours.",
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"text": "And I can imagine, I mean, a lot of these scientists are probably using ChatGPT or Gemini or whatever it might be to write their grants, and-...",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2025148": [
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"text": "So some things that we talk about in the report are, um, are around, uh, uh, research burdens.",
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"text": "Yeah, I think it's all the above. So some things that we talk about in the report are, um, are around, uh, uh, research burdens.",
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"text": "It is. Yeah, I think it's all the above. So some things that we talk about in the report are, um, are around, uh, uh, research burdens.",
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"text": "Okay, my favorite idea.",
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{
"text": "Nice. Okay, my favorite idea.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3326403": [
{
"text": "you know, states can, can choose to make decisions and, and people will vote with their feet and companies will vote with their feet and go to places where, where they're most comfortable.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2054628": [
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"text": "We want them to be doing their work 100% of the time. Yes.",
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"text": "These scientists are the crown jewels of our country. We want them to be doing their work 100% of the time. Yes.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1741260": [
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"text": "So I, I wanna return for a second before we, we head to, uh, the new golden age and, and Genesis mission, uh, to the speed of change.",
"start_ms": 1741260,
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{
"text": "Mm. So I, I wanna return for a second before we, we head to, uh, the new golden age and, and Genesis mission, uh, to the speed of change.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3592304": [
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"text": "It was Star Trek and Apollo.",
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"text": "Yeah, I mean, the Apollo program, you know, is, is 100% responsible for everything I've done in my life. It was Star Trek and Apollo.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_1636880": [
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"text": "But it's, you can count them on your two hands-...",
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"text": "We've got a number of, of great US-based humanoid robot companies. But it's, you can count them on your two hands-...",
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{
"text": "I've got my robots on order. We've got a number of, of great US-based humanoid robot companies. But it's, you can count them on your two hands-...",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_2123998": [
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"text": "for 50 years, and so-...",
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{
"text": "uh, just to, I mean, the aviation industry had been stuck-... for 50 years, and so-...",
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{
"text": "I mean, the breakthrough, you know, the policy changes on both supersonic flight and on EVTOLs-... uh, just to, I mean, the aviation industry had been stuck-... for 50 years, and so-...",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3353564": [
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"text": "And, and I think, um, it has a good thing.",
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"text": "when the rules changed. And, and I think, um, it has a good thing.",
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"michael_kratsios_on_the_new_golden_age_of_american_science_e_3750672": [
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"text": "put the hypothesis in and hit go, and then start thinking about the next one and not needing to wait. Yeah.",
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{
"text": "go online-... put the hypothesis in and hit go, and then start thinking about the next one and not needing to wait. Yeah.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2890512": [
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"text": "for autonomous vehicles.",
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"text": "So we have like for autonomous cars, we have, uh, the, um, the Society of Automotive Engineers has their like five levels of autonomy-... for autonomous vehicles.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_335280": [
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"text": "Um, while our regulatory agencies are not perfect, um, and I deal with regulators on a very frequent basis, um, with, uh, automotive, um, you know, communications with Starlink Um, and then, uh, FAA with, with rockets.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1248724": [
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"text": "So the US response is to define a permissible ceiling rather than a wall.",
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"text": "So once China releases a model freely, banning it is impossible. So the US response is to define a permissible ceiling rather than a wall.",
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{
"text": "Models like DeepSeek have already been downloaded millions of times. So once China releases a model freely, banning it is impossible. So the US response is to define a permissible ceiling rather than a wall.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1993060": [
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"text": "So a couple points.",
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"text": "Yeah, but maybe just to- To, to add to Ramin's point, I, I think the situation maybe is, is even more extreme. So a couple points.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1451484": [
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"text": "That could happen in AI as well, a disaster. Yeah.",
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"text": "Like China is experiencing a biotech boom. That could happen in AI as well, a disaster. Yeah.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3117681": [
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"text": "I can give you also like one numerical kind of example of this.",
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"text": "In an essay titled A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age, he called for a US-led frontier AI standards body modeled on FINRA, the industry-funded watchdog that polices Wall Street under SEC oversight.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2629014": [
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"text": "They built a system called AI-driven exploration squared, ADE squared, with an outer AI agent whose job is to rewrite the code and the research strategy for an inner AI agent.",
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"text": "Whether they're first or not, Alex, I'll ask you about that. They built a system called AI-driven exploration squared, ADE squared, with an outer AI agent whose job is to rewrite the code and the research strategy for an inner AI agent.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3474036": [
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"text": "Because while, you know, while the data released by WeCo is interesting, uh, it's their own self-reported data.",
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"text": "When, when do we have a pod that said, \"Yes, this is recursive self-improvement\"? Because while, you know, while the data released by WeCo is interesting, uh, it's their own self-reported data.",
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"text": "You know, when do we have a pod where we say- Yes. When, when do we have a pod that said, \"Yes, this is recursive self-improvement\"? Because while, you know, while the data released by WeCo is interesting, uh, it's their own self-reported data.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_881368": [
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"text": "Uh, the, the, there are, I think, at least two different frames that one can look at the liability side from.",
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"text": "Maybe. Uh, the, the, there are, I think, at least two different frames that one can look at the liability side from.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4638998": [
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"text": "There, we, uh, we continued working on the, uh, on, on this technology, which was, you know, like from a base is a completely different things.",
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{
"text": "In the middle of my PhD, I actually joined CSAIL. There, we, uh, we continued working on the, uh, on, on this technology, which was, you know, like from a base is a completely different things.",
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"text": "And we, we've been there since 2017. In the middle of my PhD, I actually joined CSAIL. There, we, uh, we continued working on the, uh, on, on this technology, which was, you know, like from a base is a completely different things.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1703458": [
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"text": "So the, the West now has a new frontier open-weight model.",
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"text": "So this, this seems to be, at least according to the evals that Thinky's released, stronger than Nemotron, which is great. So the, the West now has a new frontier open-weight model.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5956654": [
{
"text": "All right, our next story comes from Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus and now the chairman of the defense giant, Anduril.",
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{
"text": "All right, now back to the episode. All right, our next story comes from Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus and now the chairman of the defense giant, Anduril.",
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"text": "Make sure you become the CEO of your own health. All right, now back to the episode. All right, our next story comes from Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus and now the chairman of the defense giant, Anduril.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2938882": [
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"text": "Just to tell you a little bit about like how the foundation model labs are operating.",
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"text": "I'm not as excited as Alex is, like on the, on the topic and, and I see, I see this is an impressive engineering kind of work that has been done. Just to tell you a little bit about like how the foundation model labs are operating.",
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{
"text": "a couple words. I'm not as excited as Alex is, like on the, on the topic and, and I see, I see this is an impressive engineering kind of work that has been done. Just to tell you a little bit about like how the foundation model labs are operating.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4420168": [
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"text": "You know, I, I actually don't know of any, um, successful foundation lab, uh, that has really rethought from the ground up the transformer and thrown it out, basically, and started over, which, which, you know, humanity desperately needs because the, the...",
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"text": "You know, last week, Sam Altman published an op-ed in the Financial Times proposing a framework for a US-led international forum that would establish standards, provide expertise, impartial analysis, and capabilities, and assess risks.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2272162": [
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"text": "I think there's two things that also that, that I saw that were really interesting here.",
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"text": "And amazingly, this isn't happening just in a test tube.",
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"text": "It oxidizes away the glycation scars and restores the original healthy protein underneath. And amazingly, this isn't happening just in a test tube.",
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{
"text": "I love their description, a molecular lawnmower. It oxidizes away the glycation scars and restores the original healthy protein underneath. And amazingly, this isn't happening just in a test tube.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4869280": [
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"text": "Smaller models are models that are, you know, like along the line of like scaling, they can solve, um...",
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"text": "You know, like thinking about computational graphs of intelligence. Smaller models are models that are, you know, like along the line of like scaling, they can solve, um...",
"start_ms": 4884160,
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{
"text": "You know, and efficiency was a first class citizen for us. You know, like thinking about computational graphs of intelligence. Smaller models are models that are, you know, like along the line of like scaling, they can solve, um...",
"start_ms": 4881580,
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6072734": [
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"text": "My guess is that is, uh, secondary to AI.",
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"text": "Uh, interestingly enough, patents, uh, uh, granted have increased 40% in the last five years. My guess is that is, uh, secondary to AI.",
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"text": "Uh, that's 2025 data. Uh, interestingly enough, patents, uh, uh, granted have increased 40% in the last five years. My guess is that is, uh, secondary to AI.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6546448": [
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"text": "So we've got ChatGPT, we've known this for some time, that these AI diagnostic models are better than the best physicians given all the tools that humans can use.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4816840": [
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"text": "And this has been like giving rise to large language models.",
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"text": "And, and we have seen scaling laws shows that the larger you make the models, the more token budgets you spend, the more intelligence of a system you can get. And this has been like giving rise to large language models.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2585024": [
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"text": "Uh, so here is the, uh, the story.",
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"text": "And, and, and you said yes. Uh, so here is the, uh, the story.",
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"text": "Zurich, and I saw this come up, and I said, \"Hey, let's talk about this tomorrow.\" And, and, and you said yes. Uh, so here is the, uh, the story.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4490548": [
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"text": "Um, and, um, and, um, yeah, so, so 2- 2015, I was in Vienna.",
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"text": "Thank you so much for doing that, both of you. Um, and, um, and, um, yeah, so, so 2- 2015, I was in Vienna.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1194144": [
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"text": "Comes from The Washington Post, that the White House is reportedly weighing a capability framework that would clear US models, open or closed, as long as they stay at or below the level of China's best open weight model.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6596328": [
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"text": "Uh, and again, as people talk about the concerns of AI and so forth, please realize this.",
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{
"text": "I mean, this is the abundance thesis at large. Uh, and again, as people talk about the concerns of AI and so forth, please realize this.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5065020": [
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"text": "We announced the Mercedes partnership as a first, uh, fir- or first kind of, uh, point of entry because automotive is like, uh, it's very sensitive kind of, uh, topic, and, and they're, they're pretty slow.",
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"text": "We do that with all car manufacturers. We announced the Mercedes partnership as a first, uh, fir- or first kind of, uh, point of entry because automotive is like, uh, it's very sensitive kind of, uh, topic, and, and they're, they're pretty slow.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4069922": [
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"text": "Dave, where do you come out on this? I mean, we saw...",
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"text": "It could lead to- It could lead to a true democracy. Dave, where do you come out on this? I mean, we saw...",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6672308": [
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"text": "I-it's, it's pretty, pretty wild.",
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{
"text": "Instagram now gives better medical advice than a human doctor. I-it's, it's pretty, pretty wild.",
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{
"text": "Y-you see, like th-this is such a July 2026 story where-- uh, think about it. Instagram now gives better medical advice than a human doctor. I-it's, it's pretty, pretty wild.",
"start_ms": 6663008,
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1602338": [
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"text": "Uh, it's a mixture of experts' model with nine hundred and seventy-five billion total parameters, only fires forty-one billion at any one time, so it keeps it, you know, keeps the model going fast and cheap.",
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{
"text": "Uh, the specs are serious. Uh, it's a mixture of experts' model with nine hundred and seventy-five billion total parameters, only fires forty-one billion at any one time, so it keeps it, you know, keeps the model going fast and cheap.",
"start_ms": 1602338,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5248312": [
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"text": "You can ask for, let's say, manuals of the car, you know, like when, when you're like get, let's say, stuck somewhere, you know, like something pops up, you know, like you would be able to talk to the car.",
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"text": "Like how much memory are you consuming on a given processor?",
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"text": "Number one criteria is memory. Like how much memory are you consuming on a given processor?",
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"text": "So to see like w- for four criteria, what is the most optimal neural architecture, let's say, of choice for, let's say, a certain deployment? Number one criteria is memory. Like how much memory are you consuming on a given processor?",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2906562": [
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"text": "And the claim here is that they're touching, just starting to touch on ignition.",
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"text": "And level three, inflection, self-acceleration with a fixed budget. And the claim here is that they're touching, just starting to touch on ignition.",
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"text": "ignition, where the improvers are better, they're basically a better improver. And level three, inflection, self-acceleration with a fixed budget. And the claim here is that they're touching, just starting to touch on ignition.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_606476": [
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"text": "And then you can, uh, you can figure out like an, a, a, an equilibrium.",
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"text": "you can really model it like that, right? And then you can, uh, you can figure out like an, a, a, an equilibrium.",
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"text": "So if you think about like you can-... you can really model it like that, right? And then you can, uh, you can figure out like an, a, a, an equilibrium.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_424156": [
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"text": "Um, you know, the reason FINRA works fundamentally is'cause people from the industry who know what they're doing are willing to join it.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1024498": [
{
"text": "I'm gonna say it again.",
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{
"text": "What's the, what's the point? I'm gonna say it again.",
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{
"text": "Some- You know, we have a skunky little- You've got, uh, non-state actors and other folks that won't listen to this structure, and you're back to square one. What's the, what's the point? I'm gonna say it again.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3556296": [
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"text": "The place where recursive self-improvement today is really good at is prompt engineering, changing, editing code, like, in engineering kind of tasks that you've seen, like, some elements of these things, like, at a very, very superficial level.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3249526": [
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"text": "And so the big foundation model labs, like Ramin said, are all doing it.",
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"text": "So you go from 10 years to 10 million years to go from learning to recursive self-improvement or recursive evolution. And so the big foundation model labs, like Ramin said, are all doing it.",
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"text": "We have like subdivisions, uh, orgs within NIST that are, uh, working on standards, but that's not really regulatory body.",
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"text": "We still don't have it. We have like subdivisions, uh, orgs within NIST that are, uh, working on standards, but that's not really regulatory body.",
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{
"text": "Others have been forecasting it for decades. We still don't have it. We have like subdivisions, uh, orgs within NIST that are, uh, working on standards, but that's not really regulatory body.",
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"text": "It's a, it's a really, really great point.",
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],
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"text": "Well, yeah, I mean, Sam, Sam and Dario can see everything, all your proprietary information.",
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{
"text": "But that's hugely inefficient compared to retraining. Well, yeah, I mean, Sam, Sam and Dario can see everything, all your proprietary information.",
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{
"text": "So right now we dump it into the prompt field and say, \"Okay, here it is in prompt form.\" But that's hugely inefficient compared to retraining. Well, yeah, I mean, Sam, Sam and Dario can see everything, all your proprietary information.",
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],
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"text": "The bar can be much, much lower to improve invoice, uh, uh, approval at a company, right?",
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"text": "So, but you don't need that level. The bar can be much, much lower to improve invoice, uh, uh, approval at a company, right?",
"start_ms": 3705880,
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{
"text": "Here we're talking about the model, and we're talking about, like, can you... So, but you don't need that level. The bar can be much, much lower to improve invoice, uh, uh, approval at a company, right?",
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"text": "So, and the way nervous systems compute in the brain of a little worm, which is two millimeter, is, um, basically analog, very similar to how artificial neural networks are actually computing.",
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],
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"text": "Let's say a robot doesn't have, doesn't have like a lot of GPUs or parallel data centers like attached to it.",
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"text": "In the real world, in the physical world, you don't have the luxury of having abundant compute. Let's say a robot doesn't have, doesn't have like a lot of GPUs or parallel data centers like attached to it.",
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],
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"text": "You know, it's like that chip is very, very small.",
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{
"text": "So there's like one chip that is available for infotainment and in-car intelligence. You know, it's like that chip is very, very small.",
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{
"text": "And now in a car, you don't have that much, that much compute. So there's like one chip that is available for infotainment and in-car intelligence. You know, it's like that chip is very, very small.",
"start_ms": 5002220,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4232812": [
{
"text": "I'm Alex Wisner-Gross.",
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"text": "And so I'd be shocked if y-'cause the technology is already there, and people are visualizing the medium right now as, \"Oh, let me make an AI version of myself. I'm Alex Wisner-Gross.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3340606": [
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"text": "Like, every single release of our models is open source.",
"start_ms": 3393896,
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{
"text": "Like, we are doing it all the time. Like, every single release of our models is open source.",
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{
"text": "I, I've always been, like, you know, like, pro open source, and I want to open source technology all the time. Like, we are doing it all the time. Like, every single release of our models is open source.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3826240": [
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"text": "But I love the general approach because if you can do it from a, im- with a watermarking or something and say, \"This is the actual avatar,\" uh, then it gives every citizen a voice to, um, um, plug into and gives huge props to the civics of all of this.",
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],
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"text": "It, that may be good for Anduril's defense business, but I, I think in general, terrible idea.",
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"text": "It's that the military exclusively can practice it, and then the inventor gets royalties from that practice. It, that may be good for Anduril's defense business, but I, I think in general, terrible idea.",
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"text": "In general, they can't. It's that the military exclusively can practice it, and then the inventor gets royalties from that practice. It, that may be good for Anduril's defense business, but I, I think in general, terrible idea.",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5352712": [
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"text": "We try to actually stay adaptable and have access to the tools across these customization stacks.",
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"text": "Like you know, I've-- I told you about the framework of foundation model development, which is depths of customization. We try to actually stay adaptable and have access to the tools across these customization stacks.",
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{
"text": "So if you have... Like you know, I've-- I told you about the framework of foundation model development, which is depths of customization. We try to actually stay adaptable and have access to the tools across these customization stacks.",
"start_ms": 5346052,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5122632": [
{
"text": "So they-- we fine-tune kind of the small models for the, the applications inside the car.",
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{
"text": "It's something that is extremely tangible. So they-- we fine-tune kind of the small models for the, the applications inside the car.",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3661390": [
{
"text": "'Cause the system doesn't need...",
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},
{
"text": "It's accelerating experimentation, right?'Cause the system doesn't need...",
"start_ms": 3678560,
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{
"text": "You know, I, I'm not r- really focused on the self-awareness or the loop that will go there, but this is self-accelerating. It's accelerating experimentation, right?'Cause the system doesn't need...",
"start_ms": 3672520,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_710236": [
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"text": "So it's difference number one is nobody's gonna carve out the time to do something for years like they do at FINRA.",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2170592": [
{
"text": "You know, like what hours we're open, uh, who our employees are, our entire payroll.",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5846164": [
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"text": "This automated framework is the one that explores architectures for, for a given kind of hardware, and guess what came out of like the first generation of the architectures that we started optimizing?",
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},
{
"text": "We call it AFMD. This automated framework is the one that explores architectures for, for a given kind of hardware, and guess what came out of like the first generation of the architectures that we started optimizing?",
"start_ms": 5832484,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3574636": [
{
"text": "But they, they don't share, like, the n- next level depths of customization.",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3623020": [
{
"text": "Can a language model pre-train the next generation of their own?",
"start_ms": 3632020,
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},
{
"text": "Then the la- latest holy grail, which is, like, the craziest one, which would be pre-training, right? Can a language model pre-train the next generation of their own?",
"start_ms": 3627470,
"lead_ms": 7830
},
{
"text": "performance optimization of the model, but by fine-tuning. Then the la- latest holy grail, which is, like, the craziest one, which would be pre-training, right? Can a language model pre-train the next generation of their own?",
"start_ms": 3624820,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_123920": [
{
"text": "All right. God dammit. Yeah.",
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}
],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5166952": [
{
"text": "Inside, let's say a car and in the physical world, it becomes even more challenging because when you deploy an intelligence that is completely kind of d-d-disconnected from the cloud, how do you want to, like, maintain updates of the system?",
"start_ms": 5153612,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5490124": [
{
"text": "Like we are touching 100 million kind of hundreds of millions of kind of users, 10 billion products, and many different kind of, uh, places to, to integrate.",
"start_ms": 5493264,
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},
{
"text": "And, and Shopify is like a huge, uh, uh, uh, base. Like we are touching 100 million kind of hundreds of millions of kind of users, 10 billion products, and many different kind of, uh, places to, to integrate.",
"start_ms": 5490124,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3935440": [
{
"text": "with, like, a h- extra high alpha personality leaders that want to amplify themselves and touch the, the citizenry.",
"start_ms": 3924560,
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{
"text": "First, I think we're going to see more of this in the West a- as well, uh, e- especially-... with, like, a h- extra high alpha personality leaders that want to amplify themselves and touch the, the citizenry.",
"start_ms": 3919740,
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{
"text": "Yeah, so many thoughts here. First, I think we're going to see more of this in the West a- as well, uh, e- especially-... with, like, a h- extra high alpha personality leaders that want to amplify themselves and touch the, the citizenry.",
"start_ms": 3918320,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6323924": [
{
"text": "Uh, continuous innovation is going to be the winning defense.",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, that's going to be the real defensibility, is what are your feedback loops, and can you learn in a proprietary way and then create trade secrets around that and action that in the marketplace? Uh, continuous innovation is going to be the winning defense.",
"start_ms": 6344004,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5411462": [
{
"text": "It's not just the models that we are selling to enterprises, the static weights of a model.",
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{
"text": "You know, model plus a platform that allows you to perform cu-customization. It's not just the models that we are selling to enterprises, the static weights of a model.",
"start_ms": 5401922,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2741714": [
{
"text": "The outer loop was tasked with the-- with improving the inner loop.",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2786924": [
{
"text": "And so, so in some sense, the outer loop is defensively co-scaling with and policing the inner loop.",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3752840": [
{
"text": "All right. I, I-...",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4289002": [
{
"text": "If, if, uh, to our audience here, if you've not sat down, if, if you're lucky enough to have your mom and dad still alive or your grandparents still alive, and you haven't sat down and interviewed them in video, uh, for hours at a time, please do that, right?",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4444228": [
{
"text": "Um- Luckily we were. Yeah.",
"start_ms": 4444208,
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},
{
"text": "And so the team went from idea in a lab to billion dollar valuation in faster than any company out of MIT in history. Um- Luckily we were. Yeah.",
"start_ms": 4436108,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5200082": [
{
"text": "Imagine if every update that you want to perform on the system is in the order of twenty megabytes because we are doing like some sort of LoRA adapters and let's say all sort of adapters that we can actually bring in inside the car.",
"start_ms": 5208672,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5671064": [
{
"text": "falling into the same category of continuous time, uh, neural networks, but dumbed down into a linear kind of dynamical systems because you, you want to scale them.",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2464672": [
{
"text": "Let me bring up another key point here on this story, which is, uh, in the, in the context, which is it's great to see a woman CEO in the AI frontier lab area.",
"start_ms": 2466472,
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{
"text": "Uh, and we tend towards ASI. Let me bring up another key point here on this story, which is, uh, in the, in the context, which is it's great to see a woman CEO in the AI frontier lab area.",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6740418": [
{
"text": "And yesterday in Nature Communications, a team from a new startup called Revel Pharmaceuticals demonstrated an engineered enzyme called CML-ACE, uh, that acts like a molecular lawnmower.",
"start_ms": 6776248,
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{
"text": "And this idea, uh, is that it's always been irreversible until this week. And yesterday in Nature Communications, a team from a new startup called Revel Pharmaceuticals demonstrated an engineered enzyme called CML-ACE, uh, that acts like a molecular lawnmower.",
"start_ms": 6770548,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_765548": [
{
"text": "I, I tend to think this is a bad idea.",
"start_ms": 765548,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2081870": [
{
"text": "Which models are they gonna use?",
"start_ms": 2097180,
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},
{
"text": "And if that's the case, then the question is, who are they gonna use? Which models are they gonna use?",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1467948": [
{
"text": "Look, this is a huge problem, right?",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6851668": [
{
"text": "Uh, th-they're still doing work.",
"start_ms": 6857748,
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{
"text": "one of the Alphabet other bets that's been, uh, I would say like a, a lot quieter than, say, Waymo. Uh, th-they're still doing work.",
"start_ms": 6851728,
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{
"text": "that was one of the-... one of the Alphabet other bets that's been, uh, I would say like a, a lot quieter than, say, Waymo. Uh, th-they're still doing work.",
"start_ms": 6849938,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1100104": [
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"text": "So when the three largest labs, uh, are pushing for it, my guess is the government will latch on and will do this.",
"start_ms": 1131184,
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},
{
"text": "You know, Elon stepping up, uh, and, and Sam obviously trying to, on his own, on the side, trying to push for this. So when the three largest labs, uh, are pushing for it, my guess is the government will latch on and will do this.",
"start_ms": 1122283,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4172612": [
{
"text": "Yeah, this whole area-...",
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}
],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6362404": [
{
"text": "We're gonna discover new physics, new medicines at an incredible accelerating rate, and, you know, places like Europe respect intellectual property rights, and that creates a kind of a coherent economy where you can trade these things.",
"start_ms": 6375584,
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}
],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4728980": [
{
"text": "A robot has a CPU, and a small, like let's say GPU, and let's say an NPU, a custom ASIC.",
"start_ms": 4710738,
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},
{
"text": "centers like attached to it. A robot has a CPU, and a small, like let's say GPU, and let's say an NPU, a custom ASIC.",
"start_ms": 4709028,
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}
],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5430824": [
{
"text": "And, uh, there, like what we've done, we, uh, we deploy our liquid foundation models in production.",
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}
],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2288092": [
{
"text": "And so this is aiming squarely at, uh, organizational use.",
"start_ms": 2288092,
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},
{
"text": "One is a very big context window, like a million tokens,'cause that means you can do a lot with it, and the second is multimodality. And so this is aiming squarely at, uh, organizational use.",
"start_ms": 2281492,
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}
],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6486454": [
{
"text": "So two stories this week are demonstrating an incredible impact of AI on healthcare abundance, demonetizing and democratizing diagnostics, uh, for billions of people.",
"start_ms": 6490144,
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{
"text": "All right, I'm gonna move us into the world of healthcare abundance. So two stories this week are demonstrating an incredible impact of AI on healthcare abundance, demonetizing and democratizing diagnostics, uh, for billions of people.",
"start_ms": 6487914,
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{
"text": "Uh, agreed. All right, I'm gonna move us into the world of healthcare abundance. So two stories this week are demonstrating an incredible impact of AI on healthcare abundance, demonetizing and democratizing diagnostics, uh, for billions of people.",
"start_ms": 6486924,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6684128": [
{
"text": "I-it's, it's pretty, pretty wild.",
"start_ms": 6672308,
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},
{
"text": "Instagram now gives better medical advice than a human doctor. I-it's, it's pretty, pretty wild.",
"start_ms": 6667828,
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},
{
"text": "a July 2026 story where-- uh, think about it. Instagram now gives better medical advice than a human doctor. I-it's, it's pretty, pretty wild.",
"start_ms": 6664468,
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}
],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3292496": [
{
"text": "When do you think we'll actually see recursive self-improvement hit?",
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},
{
"text": "And the second question I have is when do you think we'll see this? When do you think we'll actually see recursive self-improvement hit?",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_578516": [
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"text": "Stackelberg games, like essentially like where two policies, like basic- like there's like a, you know, like you have like a policy maker, and then you have agents or bodies that are working in that, uh, kind of game theory kind of optimal.",
"start_ms": 578526,
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{
"text": "So I mean-... Stackelberg games, like essentially like where two policies, like basic- like there's like a, you know, like you have like a policy maker, and then you have agents or bodies that are working in that, uh, kind of game theory kind of optimal.",
"start_ms": 577936,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. So I mean-... Stackelberg games, like essentially like where two policies, like basic- like there's like a, you know, like you have like a policy maker, and then you have agents or bodies that are working in that, uh, kind of game theory kind of optimal.",
"start_ms": 577656,
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_651496": [
{
"text": "But the mechanism that people have today is just static law, and the minute you pass the law, the law's gonna be out of date. Right?",
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],
"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1312984": [
{
"text": "The-- You, you have to move from like prevention and whatever to adaptation.",
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{
"text": "I mean, you're- we're throwing the kitchen sink at things, trying to f- uh, to, to solve something that's already a problem. The-- You, you have to move from like prevention and whatever to adaptation.",
"start_ms": 1323604,
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},
{
"text": "This is like trying to uninvent the printing press. I mean, you're- we're throwing the kitchen sink at things, trying to f- uh, to, to solve something that's already a problem. The-- You, you have to move from like prevention and whatever to adaptation.",
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"text": "And then she completely lost me.",
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"text": "And, and so she has access to incredible talent, but she called and said, \"Hey, best students I've ever had, have this incredible breakthrough.\" And then she completely lost me.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3806470": [
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"text": "Uh, so one leader, uh, in this case Prime Minister of Malaysia, can personally address millions in their own languages.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6012884": [
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"text": "So if you do that, you're effectively teaching the world how to use it, uh, and you're exchanging that, that, uh, sharing of your invention for roughly 20 years of exclusivity.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6903396": [
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"text": "Like, what, what else is there out there in the biosphere for us to mine in addition to all the obvious glip ones?",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_929028": [
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"text": "We, we don't have a practice or a tradition of regulating an upper limit, say, or via some sort of regulatory code saying humans, n- uh, n- natural persons can't be above some level of intelligence.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5729144": [
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"text": "So we built a meta AI system.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_664996": [
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"text": "AI moves way, way too fast for any kind of traditional-... uh, bureaucracy.",
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"text": "The, I, I, I found that the FAA and FCC analogy is, is, is pointing in the right direction, but a- let's just be real. AI moves way, way too fast for any kind of traditional-... uh, bureaucracy.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1349704": [
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"text": "And the pace, it's just the pace of model development is like getting so, so, so much smaller, you know?",
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"text": "Like we are, we are doing the same things, and all of the labs are doing this. And the pace, it's just the pace of model development is like getting so, so, so much smaller, you know?",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_470296": [
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"text": "But, uh, it has to be related to capability, and then the thing that becomes a challenge is that, that there's a horizontal kind of capability lock into like activ- uh, like let's say like enterprise deployment of AI, and then there's the vertical.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5227012": [
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"text": "And it's over the air.",
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"text": "So right now, my experience is using Groq in my Tesla, right? And it's over the air.",
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"text": "So what am I gonna be-- how am I using this model in my Mercedes next year? So right now, my experience is using Groq in my Tesla, right? And it's over the air.",
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"text": "Two more, two more things I agree wholeheartedly, but also you have to note that OpenAI started open source, open weight, and then went closed, big revenue, and, uh, Meta also was the leader of open weight. Yeah, Llama.",
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"text": "You get what you incentivize I agree. Two more, two more things I agree wholeheartedly, but also you have to note that OpenAI started open source, open weight, and then went closed, big revenue, and, uh, Meta also was the leader of open weight. Yeah, Llama.",
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"text": "And, it won't just be, I think, corporations.",
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"text": "Yeah Yes. And, it won't just be, I think, corporations.",
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"text": "We already see Zuck, uh, and others creating digital twins of themselves. Yeah Yes. And, it won't just be, I think, corporations.",
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"text": "uh, uh, computational, uh, complexity go, goes into nested learning systems, nest-- meta learning systems.",
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"text": "So there are- So, so, so there is, there's a lot of, uh, there's a lot of-... uh, uh, computational, uh, complexity go, goes into nested learning systems, nest-- meta learning systems.",
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"text": "framework. So there are- So, so, so there is, there's a lot of, uh, there's a lot of-... uh, uh, computational, uh, complexity go, goes into nested learning systems, nest-- meta learning systems.",
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"text": "Like, that, that's, that's what, what I would imagine to get.",
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"text": "Like, models that are, like, going, uh, uh, above our, our understanding even. Like, that, that's, that's what, what I would imagine to get.",
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"text": "You know? Like, models that are, like, going, uh, uh, above our, our understanding even. Like, that, that's, that's what, what I would imagine to get.",
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"text": "But in some sense, if that is like the permanent long-term plan of Thinking Machines, it's fundamentally a bet that we're not going to ever move beyond the reinforcement fine-tuning paradigm, which I think is probably wrong.",
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"text": "Like, this is kind of the place where customization has been, like, something that everything-- uh, like the whole, the whole, uh, market around customization has been very empty.",
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"text": "And then when you actually do the math with the frameworks that they have, if they want to-- Like let's say you launch this framework on retuning an AI model to s- recursively self-improve with this, uh, framework that is g- getting, uh, introduced.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1686708": [
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"text": "it's, it's worth looking at the raw capabilities.",
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"text": "Well-... it's, it's worth looking at the raw capabilities.",
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"text": "But again, we're talking about what, single digit percent of the AI industry is, is women, uh, and we need more.",
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"text": "And Fei-Fei Li, yeah. But again, we're talking about what, single digit percent of the AI industry is, is women, uh, and we need more.",
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"text": "Where, uh, uh, Ramin? And Fei-Fei Li, yeah. But again, we're talking about what, single digit percent of the AI industry is, is women, uh, and we need more.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_3978840": [
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"text": "Well, we- Well, Dara, we had Dara on the Abundance stage last year.",
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"text": "And people owning their own models, working on-prem, and not giving their, you know, uh, their controls to the large frontier models.",
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{
"text": "Exactly. And people owning their own models, working on-prem, and not giving their, you know, uh, their controls to the large frontier models.",
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"text": "Yeah. Exactly. And people owning their own models, working on-prem, and not giving their, you know, uh, their controls to the large frontier models.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6842028": [
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"text": "I mean, the, the-- a couple of interesting notes here.",
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"text": "And, and not just Revel. I mean, the, the-- a couple of interesting notes here.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_4135221": [
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"text": "is our, our platform we're building out.",
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{
"text": "Uh, we should effec- effectively, you know, moonshots.com is our, our platform we're building out.",
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"text": "I have enough books and tweets and, uh, and, uh, and Substack posts out there that it does a damn good job. Uh, we should effec- effectively, you know, moonshots.com is our, our platform we're building out.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_2357652": [
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"text": "At, at most it, it results in like a style transfer.",
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"text": "And I think as an exploration, I think everything has to be like getting started.",
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"text": "You know, and the other elephant, the other elephant in the room here is these CEOs who are asking for some level of regulation, I, I think are, are looking for a backstop.",
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"text": "So I, this is a conversation we've seen over and over again, and I think the government, the public, and now the CEOs want to be leading this.",
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"text": "Um, amazing. So I, this is a conversation we've seen over and over again, and I think the government, the public, and now the CEOs want to be leading this.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5045640": [
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"text": "Because connectivity is not, uh, al- always available, right?",
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"text": "Why? Because connectivity is not, uh, al- always available, right?",
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"text": "You don't want your car to be driven by an AI model that is sitting in the cloud. Why? Because connectivity is not, uh, al- always available, right?",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1402924": [
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"text": "It seems like they're groping for ideas.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_5893924": [
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"text": "Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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"text": "I'm here today with Dr. Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_1052928": [
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"text": "I'll, I'll take a different position on that one, just i- if I may, Peter, narrowly-... on that.",
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"text": "Well, there are-... I'll, I'll take a different position on that one, just i- if I may, Peter, narrowly-... on that.",
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"text": "I think the probability of there being some sort of AI regulatory agency that stands on its own, similar to the FAA or FCC, is likely at some point.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_797378": [
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"text": "room is open weight models and research that lives outside of the frontier capabilities.",
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"mira_murati_s_975b_open_model_ramin_hasani_on_post_transform_6413584": [
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"text": "But I think that's the more likely, um, outcome, and that's gonna happen soon, like in the next couple of years,'cause the rate of innovation's gonna go through the roof.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1465810": [
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"text": "All right, I'm gonna move us on to our next, uh, two stories that are coming out of China in the world of video production.",
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"text": "Find the link in the show notes below. All right, I'm gonna move us on to our next, uh, two stories that are coming out of China in the world of video production.",
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"text": "Real architecture, real results. Find the link in the show notes below. All right, I'm gonna move us on to our next, uh, two stories that are coming out of China in the world of video production.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7608324": [
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"text": "generate, and, and wait for it, an absurdly large amount of lunar economy.",
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"text": "He estimates that we could yield as much as a hundred terawatts per year of orbital compute, uh, based on lunar production, which would-... generate, and, and wait for it, an absurdly large amount of lunar economy.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8432672": [
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"text": "So real humans wear motion capture suits, I'm gonna show you a video of that in a moment, to record 165 intimate actions that were fed into the model.",
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"text": "Okay, it's finally here, guys. So real humans wear motion capture suits, I'm gonna show you a video of that in a moment, to record 165 intimate actions that were fed into the model.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__30840": [
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"text": "OpenAI released the first performances of their chip, Jalapeno.",
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"text": "are driving up household electricity prices and straining the grid. OpenAI released the first performances of their chip, Jalapeno.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__302600": [
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"text": "I mean, this is more than the GDP of, of, of the majority of the countries on the planet.",
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{
"text": "billion in revenue in a single quarter. I mean, this is more than the GDP of, of, of the majority of the countries on the planet.",
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"text": "Nvidia just booked $96.2 billion in revenue in a single quarter. I mean, this is more than the GDP of, of, of the majority of the countries on the planet.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__15340": [
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"text": "The X safety team conducted an investigation into suspected Chinese inauthentic accounts.",
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"text": "Nvidia just booked ninety-six point two billion dollars in revenue in a single quarter. The X safety team conducted an investigation into suspected Chinese inauthentic accounts.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6982698": [
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"text": "First off, uh, this week the FDA approved a drug called, uh, let me pronounce this properly, diraxanrasib.",
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{
"text": "Uh, a couple of stories here. First off, uh, this week the FDA approved a drug called, uh, let me pronounce this properly, diraxanrasib.",
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"text": "All right, let's move into the world of health. Uh, a couple of stories here. First off, uh, this week the FDA approved a drug called, uh, let me pronounce this properly, diraxanrasib.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4306906": [
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"text": "Which is the majority of the workforce, and let's ma- note a, a very, very f- um, important factoid.",
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{
"text": "Uh, this is small to medium-sized enterprises expect increase in staffing. Which is the majority of the workforce, and let's ma- note a, a very, very f- um, important factoid.",
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"text": "31% expect it... Uh, this is small to medium-sized enterprises expect increase in staffing. Which is the majority of the workforce, and let's ma- note a, a very, very f- um, important factoid.",
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"text": "The problem is that these guys are, are not looking at, uh, what the-- They're, they're-- You can't ask what the lunar economy is today.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8378401": [
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"text": "Uh, it's a little bit of a bizarre one but expected, uh, in the direction, uh, in the world of robotics.",
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{
"text": "All right, our final story. Uh, it's a little bit of a bizarre one but expected, uh, in the direction, uh, in the world of robotics.",
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{
"text": "Not gonna go there.\" All right, our final story. Uh, it's a little bit of a bizarre one but expected, uh, in the direction, uh, in the world of robotics.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4859310": [
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"text": "We identified a bot farm of approximately 200,000 accounts.",
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"text": "It, it says, quote, \"The X safety team conducted an investigation into suspected Chinese inauthentic accounts involved in influence operations. We identified a bot farm of approximately 200,000 accounts.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7524034": [
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"text": "You know, the biggest early markets being infrastructure costs, transportation, power, comms, mobility, construction, life support.",
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"text": "I could not expect a low, uh, uh, a lower low ball than that number from, uh, uh, from Deloitte. You know, the biggest early markets being infrastructure costs, transportation, power, comms, mobility, construction, life support.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4218316": [
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"text": "If you look at, say, the, the, uh, Goldman Sachs or the professional services firm, uh, conversation, deeply disagree.",
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"text": "And so you really have to be careful around all of this. If you look at, say, the, the, uh, Goldman Sachs or the professional services firm, uh, conversation, deeply disagree.",
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{
"text": "which is a whole thing. And so you really have to be careful around all of this. If you look at, say, the, the, uh, Goldman Sachs or the professional services firm, uh, conversation, deeply disagree.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2700866": [
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"text": "The company has further expanded its platforms to include video cameras, shotgun and audio detection, mobile surveillance trailers, drones, and software that ties all these feeds together.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6106758": [
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"text": "So every SMR company, and we had that incredible podcast with Ramez Naam on the future of energy, if you haven't seen it, please go see it.",
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"text": "So a startup is enriching uranium to this level, and that's, for me, a remarkable story. So every SMR company, and we had that incredible podcast with Ramez Naam on the future of energy, if you haven't seen it, please go see it.",
"start_ms": 6106758,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7096214": [
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"text": "So a couple of items.",
"start_ms": 7096774,
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{
"text": "Yeah. So a couple of items.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3420546": [
{
"text": "It was amazing. Blew us away.",
"start_ms": 3447596,
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{
"text": "We had over 5,000 teams registered, uh, 2,550 video trailer submissions. It was amazing. Blew us away.",
"start_ms": 3439766,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7346623": [
{
"text": "And people undervalue their oral health so much, right?",
"start_ms": 7346623,
"lead_ms": 3031
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{
"text": "Yeah. And people undervalue their oral health so much, right?",
"start_ms": 7345014,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3779994": [
{
"text": "the, the son of Gene Roddenberry.",
"start_ms": 3783714,
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{
"text": "We're also gonna have Rod Roddenberry there-... the, the son of Gene Roddenberry.",
"start_ms": 3782194,
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{
"text": "Yeah. We're also gonna have Rod Roddenberry there-... the, the son of Gene Roddenberry.",
"start_ms": 3779994,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4909970": [
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"text": "It comes out of Quincy, Washington, where the data centers have had extraordinary positive civic impact.",
"start_ms": 4948630,
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"text": "Um, the second story is one I want to put front and center. It comes out of Quincy, Washington, where the data centers have had extraordinary positive civic impact.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7041644": [
{
"text": "This is like longevity escape velocity.",
"start_ms": 7062854,
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{
"text": "I mean, that's the way I think about it. This is like longevity escape velocity.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7954752": [
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"text": "Um, and this is starting to look more, you know, less like an experiment and more like a real fleet.",
"start_ms": 7977042,
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{
"text": "Uh, they just registered 79 Model Ys for the robotaxi service. Um, and this is starting to look more, you know, less like an experiment and more like a real fleet.",
"start_ms": 7972942,
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},
{
"text": "The company announced it's expanded its rollout of Cybercabs in Texas. Uh, they just registered 79 Model Ys for the robotaxi service. Um, and this is starting to look more, you know, less like an experiment and more like a real fleet.",
"start_ms": 7968872,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8072051": [
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"text": "from a consumer point of view, all my friends that are driving the new Full Self-Driving, uh, Model Ys are like, \"Oh my God, this is life-changing.",
"start_ms": 8072051,
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{
"text": "You know, just, uh, just for a consu-... from a consumer point of view, all my friends that are driving the new Full Self-Driving, uh, Model Ys are like, \"Oh my God, this is life-changing.",
"start_ms": 8070702,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5149030": [
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"text": "We don't need politics on this.",
"start_ms": 5157690,
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{
"text": "I don't actually know, but we absolutely don't... We don't need politics on this.",
"start_ms": 5154890,
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{
"text": "Which is the true story? I don't actually know, but we absolutely don't... We don't need politics on this.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6887178": [
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"text": "12,000 people estimated dead My heart goes out to all of them.",
"start_ms": 6869688,
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{
"text": "Yeah... 12,000 people estimated dead My heart goes out to all of them.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5317070": [
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"text": "A, a few thoughts on this.",
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"text": "And it's just embarrassing that a company with that much cash flow has no AI strategy.",
"start_ms": 5723380,
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{
"text": "It's, it's absolutely the greatest company I've ever seen, but they have s- totally missed the boat. And it's just embarrassing that a company with that much cash flow has no AI strategy.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5275850": [
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"text": "And, you know, the 100x performance gain, this is the first 2x of 100x performance gains.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, th- there's no doubt inference is moving off of Nvidia, for sure. And, you know, the 100x performance gain, this is the first 2x of 100x performance gains.",
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{
"text": "Mm-hmm. Yeah, th- there's no doubt inference is moving off of Nvidia, for sure. And, you know, the 100x performance gain, this is the first 2x of 100x performance gains.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1019160": [
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"text": "Um, but SpaceX is everything.",
"start_ms": 1034040,
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{
"text": "You're betting on the models. Um, but SpaceX is everything.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4181286": [
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"text": "and said, \"Oh my God, all the jobs are gonna be lost.\" Right?",
"start_ms": 4179856,
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"text": "Uh, Bill Gates yesterday, was it, that went, came out-... and said, \"Oh my God, all the jobs are gonna be lost.\" Right?",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1524610": [
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"text": "So America is building large language models.",
"start_ms": 1574210,
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"text": "And the implications of that are that the two superpowers are fundamentally having different priorities. So America is building large language models.",
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"text": "You know, y- your inference algorithms are so easy to port to AMD or Intel that y- you just, you don't care about CUDA.",
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{
"text": "And at inference time it's not. You know, y- your inference algorithms are so easy to port to AMD or Intel that y- you just, you don't care about CUDA.",
"start_ms": 5547310,
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{
"text": "Why, why is the CUDA thing still a moat?\" And at inference time it's not. You know, y- your inference algorithms are so easy to port to AMD or Intel that y- you just, you don't care about CUDA.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5479490": [
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"text": "And then to run it at scale, you're like, \"Well, here's my code.",
"start_ms": 5496330,
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"text": "'Cause you can iterate your ideas so much more quickly in that environment. And then to run it at scale, you're like, \"Well, here's my code.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, so CUDA, so all the, all the AI researchers in the world moved to Python and PyTorch to do the...'Cause you can iterate your ideas so much more quickly in that environment. And then to run it at scale, you're like, \"Well, here's my code.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5217910": [
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"text": "Um, but that's a different story.",
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{
"text": "I, I th- I think American companies are doing a great job at that already. Um, but that's a different story.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1611510": [
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"text": "So when OpenAI tried, tried to, to be in the video gen business, they ended up abandoning it because Anthropic ran away with their lunch by revenue per token maxing with CodeGen, which is, call it, a more LLM-shaped use case for their compute.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3699234": [
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"text": "You know, I spent the day with Neal Stephenson, one of the most extraordinary science fiction writers, right?",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5756950": [
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"text": "So I, I almost think, like, Apple's interaction with AI is almost a history of hardware that's too good for the software and-- or conversely, software that just isn't worthy of the hardware.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6724858": [
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"text": "We could have a global weather trade where regions trade each other for precipitation.",
"start_ms": 6737478,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6921718": [
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"text": "You know, the majority of cancers that we screen for, those aren't the ones that are necessarily taking the lives when found at a late stage.",
"start_ms": 6922718,
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{
"text": "That's right. You know, the majority of cancers that we screen for, those aren't the ones that are necessarily taking the lives when found at a late stage.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1083700": [
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"text": "You know, the, the training time is a very different beast.",
"start_ms": 1114930,
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{
"text": "But that's inference only. You know, the, the training time is a very different beast.",
"start_ms": 1113230,
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{
"text": "It's just inference time data center in space. But that's inference only. You know, the, the training time is a very different beast.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5095250": [
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"text": "Is that their plan?",
"start_ms": 5139430,
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},
{
"text": "On this story, like, are the Chinese, is it the policy of the CCP to disrupt American opinion on data centers, slow down our construction of AI, bypass us in AI, and then control the world by winning the race to RSI. Is that their plan?",
"start_ms": 5123690,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1750720": [
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"text": "I think it's just purely about smarter engineers with plenty of cash and lots of training chips, uh, working on the problem.",
"start_ms": 1791110,
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{
"text": "But I don't think that world models versus, you know, language models, you know, wh- which is gonna recursively self-improve first. I think it's just purely about smarter engineers with plenty of cash and lots of training chips, uh, working on the problem.",
"start_ms": 1783650,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5376310": [
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"text": "This, this is so startling and potentially such a huge throughput increase, it makes me scratch my head and wonder whether OpenAI...",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__392808": [
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"text": "Actually, it's a really interesting, uh, two forks in the road here.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7872362": [
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"text": "To the, the PetaFAB or the ExoFAB on the Moon is, is really interesting to game it out because when you, when you look at the FAB construction process, you know, a lot of the components in there are just routine aluminum, routine, you know, just construction.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2543826": [
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"text": "tradition, I mean- Go ahead, Alex Yeah, maybe two, two, two, two points.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5629110": [
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"text": "So this is really a big deal.",
"start_ms": 5659770,
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{
"text": "Especially that Apple's gone to the extra level of starting to lease its equipment out to people. So this is really a big deal.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6767858": [
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"text": "Allows you to scale something really powerful, and I think there's a, there's a g- uh, there's a wonderful future.",
"start_ms": 6799838,
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{
"text": "But this is exactly the type of abundance technology, right? Allows you to scale something really powerful, and I think there's a, there's a g- uh, there's a wonderful future.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4549486": [
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"text": "This is what we see happening.",
"start_ms": 4560466,
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{
"text": "figure out reconciliation gaps, looking at the loop process flows, and it's much more value added to be there than doing the rote double entry whatever. This is what we see happening.",
"start_ms": 4551606,
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},
{
"text": "looking for types of income coming in-... figure out reconciliation gaps, looking at the loop process flows, and it's much more value added to be there than doing the rote double entry whatever. This is what we see happening.",
"start_ms": 4550116,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4057076": [
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"text": "Um, actually, I have three stories around jobs.",
"start_ms": 4061706,
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{
"text": "Uh, we're gonna jump into the stories around jobs. Um, actually, I have three stories around jobs.",
"start_ms": 4058586,
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},
{
"text": "All right, moving us along. Uh, we're gonna jump into the stories around jobs. Um, actually, I have three stories around jobs.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6836528": [
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"text": "That pays for the whole system.",
"start_ms": 6849498,
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{
"text": "Um, and so you sell, do it in the shape of certain patterns. That pays for the whole system.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6355674": [
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"text": "So monthly solar generation in China has exploded eightfold, 800% over the past six years, growing from 20 terawatts per month in 2020 to about 160 terawatts per month in mid-2026.",
"start_ms": 6377714,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1278970": [
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"text": "You look at Google buying Spirit Airlines data, right?",
"start_ms": 1322930,
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{
"text": "They just figured out how to buy this. You look at Google buying Spirit Airlines data, right?",
"start_ms": 1321510,
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{
"text": "Um, something big happened with, uh, um, the legal firm, uh, can't remember the name, that they just bought. They just figured out how to buy this. You look at Google buying Spirit Airlines data, right?",
"start_ms": 1314490,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7647654": [
{
"text": "So I excitedly read it thinking I'd get some in-glimmerings that would give me some sense of it.",
"start_ms": 7685054,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8185712": [
{
"text": "One is, uh, there's three little things here.",
"start_ms": 8196932,
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{
"text": "But this is a big, big deal f- I think for a couple of reasons. One is, uh, there's three little things here.",
"start_ms": 8193691,
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},
{
"text": "Our-- Like, I totally love my car. But this is a big, big deal f- I think for a couple of reasons. One is, uh, there's three little things here.",
"start_ms": 8191192,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__335380": [
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"text": "Um, in related news, Elon Musk is making some bold predictions about SpaceX revenues.",
"start_ms": 352728,
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},
{
"text": "Crazy. Um, in related news, Elon Musk is making some bold predictions about SpaceX revenues.",
"start_ms": 351708,
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},
{
"text": "You know, Jensen called the Frontier Labs, quote, \"The first generation of startups that needed tens of billions of dollars of compute to get to their product.\" Crazy. Um, in related news, Elon Musk is making some bold predictions about SpaceX revenues.",
"start_ms": 342680,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8117492": [
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"text": "The, the manufacturing quality of the car is incredible.",
"start_ms": 8127292,
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{
"text": "The FSD is incredible. The, the manufacturing quality of the car is incredible.",
"start_ms": 8125072,
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{
"text": "It, it is life-changing. The FSD is incredible. The, the manufacturing quality of the car is incredible.",
"start_ms": 8123512,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1190860": [
{
"text": "Isn't that a closed loop circular economy?",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1688250": [
{
"text": "Trick question again.",
"start_ms": 1689390,
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},
{
"text": "We already have ASI. Trick question again.",
"start_ms": 1688250,
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},
{
"text": "We didn't have good video models. We already have ASI. Trick question again.",
"start_ms": 1682330,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2994226": [
{
"text": "This is a very, very big moment.",
"start_ms": 3017946,
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},
{
"text": "And the Constitution does not update when transaction costs go to zero. This is a very, very big moment.",
"start_ms": 3013446,
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},
{
"text": "And the problem is technology's eliminated the cost of mass surveillance now, okay? And the Constitution does not update when transaction costs go to zero. This is a very, very big moment.",
"start_ms": 3009066,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__821160": [
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"text": "To your broader point, Peter, about, uh, are we in a bubble, et cetera, I think there's some macro things happening that are much more concerning.",
"start_ms": 835450,
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},
{
"text": "If this acquisition happens, you're buying the community, and that's a very classic EXO play to do this. To your broader point, Peter, about, uh, are we in a bubble, et cetera, I think there's some macro things happening that are much more concerning.",
"start_ms": 828780,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2036410": [
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"text": "We can launch any AI generated influence machine on any country, completely change the national opinion, and turn the dials here from, from Beijing, and they don't seem to be able to do anything about it.",
"start_ms": 2068710,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4451046": [
{
"text": "Like, okay, it was hard.",
"start_ms": 4482106,
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},
{
"text": "The printer was a nightmare. Like, okay, it was hard.",
"start_ms": 4481046,
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},
{
"text": "I'm like, huh, this-- And I can kind of forgive him for that because the, the, you know, the PCs would break all the time. The printer was a nightmare. Like, okay, it was hard.",
"start_ms": 4475046,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7116134": [
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"text": "There's almost no AI involved in the development-... of this drug.",
"start_ms": 7112994,
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},
{
"text": "Secondly, I'd point out I, I was doing some research on the, the full, uh, lineage, as it were, for diraxanrasib. There's almost no AI involved in the development-... of this drug.",
"start_ms": 7104594,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1942290": [
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"text": "Um, I think the i- intelligence that can model and then manipulate the world and act inside the world is going to win.",
"start_ms": 1946650,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, ro- uh, u- humanoid robots or other form robots, cough, cough. Um, I think the i- intelligence that can model and then manipulate the world and act inside the world is going to win.",
"start_ms": 1942290,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2310142": [
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"text": "How do you navigate that is going to be really, really tough.",
"start_ms": 2346262,
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},
{
"text": "Like, we are, we are, uh, we are dropping on the childcare or the childbearing side so dramatically that this is a huge structural challenge for civilization, right? How do you navigate that is going to be really, really tough.",
"start_ms": 2333162,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6960938": [
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"text": "So we're doing full body MRI, and we also do early cancer detection screening.",
"start_ms": 6960938,
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{
"text": "or detected. So we're doing full body MRI, and we also do early cancer detection screening.",
"start_ms": 6945178,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7166034": [
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"text": "But I think we're about to see a whole wave of AI-driven drugs that take it from its current response rate to, you know, near 100% using AI, and I, I think that's to be celebrated.",
"start_ms": 7153054,
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{
"text": "It was like good old-fashioned drug design. But I think we're about to see a whole wave of AI-driven drugs that take it from its current response rate to, you know, near 100% using AI, and I, I think that's to be celebrated.",
"start_ms": 7150214,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6592118": [
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"text": "W- so, you know, ultimately, weather modification is no longer theoretical, it's here.",
"start_ms": 6612238,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__441928": [
{
"text": "I mean, have you ever seen- Well, I mean, but they're, they're...",
"start_ms": 439948,
"lead_ms": 6720
},
{
"text": "So the biggest vulnerability to Nvidia by far is TSMC is still their one and only manufacturer of everything they sell. I mean, have you ever seen- Well, I mean, but they're, they're...",
"start_ms": 431008,
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{
"text": "mobstas are starting to overlap so much in what they do. So the biggest vulnerability to Nvidia by far is TSMC is still their one and only manufacturer of everything they sell. I mean, have you ever seen- Well, I mean, but they're, they're...",
"start_ms": 426768,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3317806": [
{
"text": "we have to really figure out...",
"start_ms": 3319136,
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{
"text": "And so-... we have to really figure out...",
"start_ms": 3318226,
"lead_ms": 3140
},
{
"text": "Right? And so-... we have to really figure out...",
"start_ms": 3318046,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1810190": [
{
"text": "You know, let's solve real business problems, cure real diseases.",
"start_ms": 1819900,
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},
{
"text": "So America's taking kind of the highbrow road. You know, let's solve real business problems, cure real diseases.",
"start_ms": 1817450,
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},
{
"text": "But remember, OpenAI was ahead of them and decided not to invest in it anymore because the enterprise use case is so much more valuable. So America's taking kind of the highbrow road. You know, let's solve real business problems, cure real diseases.",
"start_ms": 1810190,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5019690": [
{
"text": "And for God's sakes, to the hyperscalers, invest in the schools, invest in the libraries.",
"start_ms": 5052590,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5445960": [
{
"text": "It'll be hosted on OpenAI chips, and we'll still make money, just like Elon is.\"",
"start_ms": 5440530,
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},
{
"text": "We'll call it OpenAI Compute. It'll be hosted on OpenAI chips, and we'll still make money, just like Elon is.\"",
"start_ms": 5438710,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__782590": [
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"text": "so Microsoft tries to acquire GitHub, which was less than 10 years old, for $7.5 billion, okay?",
"start_ms": 782600,
"lead_ms": 6000
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{
"text": "Um-... so Microsoft tries to acquire GitHub, which was less than 10 years old, for $7.5 billion, okay?",
"start_ms": 781920,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1141990": [
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"text": "And so those are very, very different emerging market.",
"start_ms": 1139820,
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{
"text": "But at an inference time, it can be spread all over the world, all over space. And so those are very, very different emerging market.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1335870": [
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"text": "Every single one of them goes up ten, 20, 100x in value.",
"start_ms": 1357070,
"lead_ms": 2950
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{
"text": "Uh, do you listen to the'Moonshots' podcast?\" Every single one of them goes up ten, 20, 100x in value.",
"start_ms": 1354490,
"lead_ms": 5530
},
{
"text": "Do you know how to fine tune one? Uh, do you listen to the'Moonshots' podcast?\" Every single one of them goes up ten, 20, 100x in value.",
"start_ms": 1352790,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4359006": [
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"text": "It's completely opposite to the, uh, the, \"Oh my God, jobs are gonna...",
"start_ms": 4390166,
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{
"text": "So this is very, very recent and a great projector of where things are going. It's completely opposite to the, uh, the, \"Oh my God, jobs are gonna...",
"start_ms": 4385766,
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{
"text": "52% have increased staff, 30% have maintained it, and only 12% over the last three months have reduced staff. So this is very, very recent and a great projector of where things are going. It's completely opposite to the, uh, the, \"Oh my God, jobs are gonna...",
"start_ms": 4379286,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4659006": [
{
"text": "But if you have someone in your life who isn't, I, I think the most important thing to realize is you have access to the most patient, most capable teacher on the planet, right?",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8290672": [
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"text": "You know, first of all, CyberCab has eight cameras.",
"start_ms": 8306092,
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{
"text": "Uh, and, you know, I, I have to say, uh, I don't know how Waymo's gonna compete when CyberCab rolls out. You know, first of all, CyberCab has eight cameras.",
"start_ms": 8297691,
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{
"text": "I, I, I love it, just comparing, uh, CyberCab and, and Waymo. Uh, and, you know, I, I have to say, uh, I don't know how Waymo's gonna compete when CyberCab rolls out. You know, first of all, CyberCab has eight cameras.",
"start_ms": 8292852,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2802146": [
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"text": "And in many communities around the country, I, I read stories about people who are chopping down AI cameras from Flock or other companies because they feel that somehow they're being surveilled by their police department.",
"start_ms": 2833706,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3337626": [
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"text": "Uh, allow the civilians to, to do the same license plate tracking that first responders and police have.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6448774": [
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"text": "First of all, if you look at the difference between that red and blue curve, it's, it's completely a copy of our old linear versus exponential curves, right?",
"start_ms": 6450314,
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{
"text": "A bunch of things to say here. First of all, if you look at the difference between that red and blue curve, it's, it's completely a copy of our old linear versus exponential curves, right?",
"start_ms": 6448774,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7851702": [
{
"text": "NASA astronauts to the Moon.",
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{
"text": "It's not rods from God, it's not, uh, deploying U.S. NASA astronauts to the Moon.",
"start_ms": 7838342,
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},
{
"text": "right now it does appear that the critical path is mining, chips, fabbing, data centers on the Moon. It's not rods from God, it's not, uh, deploying U.S. NASA astronauts to the Moon.",
"start_ms": 7831762,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7733882": [
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"text": "You know, Peter, you talk about this a lot, but everyone's like, \"Why would I bother manufacturing that on the Moon?",
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{
"text": "I, I believe it because, uh, the gravity well is the key. You know, Peter, you talk about this a lot, but everyone's like, \"Why would I bother manufacturing that on the Moon?",
"start_ms": 7749062,
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{
"text": "Um, yeah, quadrillions of dollars, that's what Elon was talking about. I, I believe it because, uh, the gravity well is the key. You know, Peter, you talk about this a lot, but everyone's like, \"Why would I bother manufacturing that on the Moon?",
"start_ms": 7745562,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2503482": [
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"text": "I, I, I think, I, I think different countries will, uh, react in different ways, and, uh, my forecast for the US is you may see individual states, maybe it'll be a federalist issue where some states ban them and some states don't.",
"start_ms": 2489482,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2590106": [
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"text": "Uh, we have a carrying capacity in the tens of billions if we use just the Earth that we have correctly.",
"start_ms": 2583926,
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},
{
"text": "The world we- like, humanity would be fine, uh, barring some total disaster. Uh, we have a carrying capacity in the tens of billions if we use just the Earth that we have correctly.",
"start_ms": 2578826,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3162806": [
{
"text": "On the bad side, the negative consequences and accidental consequences, like innocent until proven guilty, habeas corpus is essentially gone now in the US.",
"start_ms": 3189866,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3285876": [
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"text": "That why- that's why there's so much incredible safety. Nobody...",
"start_ms": 3299626,
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{
"text": "And as long it stays benevolent, and they're about as benevolent as you could possibly imagine, they're... That why- that's why there's so much incredible safety. Nobody...",
"start_ms": 3294926,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3728124": [
{
"text": "He's not really a live stage kinda guy, but I'd love to have him a guest.",
"start_ms": 3729894,
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{
"text": "You know, he's not, uh, he's brilliant. He's not really a live stage kinda guy, but I'd love to have him a guest.",
"start_ms": 3728124,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7266274": [
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"text": "You know, to put this in perspective, uh, this is still ex vivo.",
"start_ms": 7302394,
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{
"text": "It's estimated at a, uh, half a trillion dollars per year in associated costs. You know, to put this in perspective, uh, this is still ex vivo.",
"start_ms": 7297574,
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},
{
"text": "You know, related oral disease affects, you know, half the population. It's estimated at a, uh, half a trillion dollars per year in associated costs. You know, to put this in perspective, uh, this is still ex vivo.",
"start_ms": 7294294,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8276732": [
{
"text": "And people that can't get around easily, and all, and, and, and, and.",
"start_ms": 8278592,
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{
"text": "And, and think about the elderly, right? And people that can't get around easily, and all, and, and, and, and.",
"start_ms": 8276732,
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},
{
"text": "Yes. And, and think about the elderly, right? And people that can't get around easily, and all, and, and, and, and.",
"start_ms": 8274132,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__495478": [
{
"text": "So, you know, I was talking-...",
"start_ms": 494718,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, and, and, you know, you almost can't spend the money fast enough at the rate that it's coming in. So, you know, I was talking-...",
"start_ms": 489668,
"lead_ms": 11500
},
{
"text": "So, so Nvidia is making all kinds of moves to shore up its position while it's on top of the world. Uh, and, and, you know, you almost can't spend the money fast enough at the rate that it's coming in. So, you know, I was talking-...",
"start_ms": 483748,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2461302": [
{
"text": "Um, the, the, there are US states that are already trying to regulate these things out of existence and trying to, to ban romantic relationships between America's youth and AI.",
"start_ms": 2461302,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3273156": [
{
"text": "until you resolve it, right?",
"start_ms": 3273636,
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},
{
"text": "If you get caught on the wrong side of that, it can go very badly for quite a while-... until you resolve it, right?",
"start_ms": 3269266,
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},
{
"text": "But this is one of the issues that w- we have to resolve, and it causes massive problems. If you get caught on the wrong side of that, it can go very badly for quite a while-... until you resolve it, right?",
"start_ms": 3264166,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5810750": [
{
"text": "You know, Tim Cook used to always say, and before Tim, Steve Jobs, that they wanted to be hardware plus software plus services, and it just seems to me like Apple's hardware, at least to the consumer side, is incredible.",
"start_ms": 5825890,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2860466": [
{
"text": "In the US, we're, we're grappling with this right now.",
"start_ms": 2892026,
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},
{
"text": "The, the party gets to look through the cameras at everyone else. In the US, we're, we're grappling with this right now.",
"start_ms": 2888626,
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},
{
"text": "In China, it's pretty obvious. The, the party gets to look through the cameras at everyone else. In the US, we're, we're grappling with this right now.",
"start_ms": 2886706,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2188542": [
{
"text": "Crazy bio-biology g- He was actually, uh...",
"start_ms": 2194732,
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},
{
"text": "You know, Dave-- Peter, do you remember Boris Zemelman from MIT? Crazy bio-biology g- He was actually, uh...",
"start_ms": 2190732,
"lead_ms": 6479
},
{
"text": "It's crazy. You know, Dave-- Peter, do you remember Boris Zemelman from MIT? Crazy bio-biology g- He was actually, uh...",
"start_ms": 2190002,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8006462": [
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"text": "Um, I have to say, you know, I, I love Google, but, you know, Waymo's new vehicle is kind of clunky.",
"start_ms": 8011902,
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},
{
"text": "Let's take a look at a quick video here just to remind people how cool, uh, the Cybercab is. Um, I have to say, you know, I, I love Google, but, you know, Waymo's new vehicle is kind of clunky.",
"start_ms": 8006462,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4504646": [
{
"text": "Uh, as we move to automation, we had calculators and slide rules that help you do the tabulation faster, but we're still doing the tab- entries b- by hand.",
"start_ms": 4525636,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6506514": [
{
"text": "And so this is a massive opportunity that's being left behind.",
"start_ms": 6516214,
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},
{
"text": "But battery technology makes this a killer opportunity because you can add a solar panel today rather than wait 15 years for some gigawatt scale energy project. And so this is a massive opportunity that's being left behind.",
"start_ms": 6506514,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4719666": [
{
"text": "Yeah, I'll just comment.",
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],
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"text": "I, I, I do think the PetaFAB is the killer app for the Moon.",
"start_ms": 7792722,
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},
{
"text": "Well, the, the Moon may not be a harsh mistress, she may be a wealthier mistress at this point. I, I, I do think the PetaFAB is the killer app for the Moon.",
"start_ms": 7788142,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2140230": [
{
"text": "South Korea's evaporating.",
"start_ms": 2154982,
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},
{
"text": "children per family. South Korea's evaporating.",
"start_ms": 2153682,
"lead_ms": 2920
},
{
"text": "You know, worst among them are South Korea, that's down to 0.75 children per family. South Korea's evaporating.",
"start_ms": 2149802,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7327094": [
{
"text": "For me, the, the big thing is showing that the future of, of medicine is not, like, repairing broken bits.",
"start_ms": 7328214,
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},
{
"text": "Just fantastic. For me, the, the big thing is showing that the future of, of medicine is not, like, repairing broken bits.",
"start_ms": 7327094,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__420698": [
{
"text": "But, but everybody's vulnerable too, you know, c- because all the major companies, all the magna mobstas are starting to overlap so much in what they do.",
"start_ms": 422968,
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},
{
"text": "And to the extent... But, but everybody's vulnerable too, you know, c- because all the major companies, all the magna mobstas are starting to overlap so much in what they do.",
"start_ms": 422188,
"lead_ms": 8820
},
{
"text": "on the face of the earth. And to the extent... But, but everybody's vulnerable too, you know, c- because all the major companies, all the magna mobstas are starting to overlap so much in what they do.",
"start_ms": 420768,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__726990": [
{
"text": "But from what, uh, there's a couple things happening that I found v- interesting.",
"start_ms": 748600,
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},
{
"text": "Things are kind of going vertical. But from what, uh, there's a couple things happening that I found v- interesting.",
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1707550": [
{
"text": "The, the answer is, I, I think in the end, omni modal models are the best.",
"start_ms": 1711950,
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},
{
"text": "Okay, so I'll ask myself that question. The, the answer is, I, I think in the end, omni modal models are the best.",
"start_ms": 1710550,
"lead_ms": 6920
},
{
"text": "or, or text-based models? Okay, so I'll ask myself that question. The, the answer is, I, I think in the end, omni modal models are the best.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1387120": [
{
"text": "Yeah. I, I think the...",
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7803422": [
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"text": "And right now it does appear that the critical path is mining, chips, fabbing, data centers on the Moon.",
"start_ms": 7831462,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2948476": [
{
"text": "But yeah, there's a huge, uh, structural problem because now we've transitioned from find this suspect to find me people who behave like suspects, and that's a very, very different animal.",
"start_ms": 2950226,
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},
{
"text": "show some level of, uh, thing. But yeah, there's a huge, uh, structural problem because now we've transitioned from find this suspect to find me people who behave like suspects, and that's a very, very different animal.",
"start_ms": 2948546,
"lead_ms": 12980
},
{
"text": "I was f- flipping over just to-... show some level of, uh, thing. But yeah, there's a huge, uh, structural problem because now we've transitioned from find this suspect to find me people who behave like suspects, and that's a very, very different animal.",
"start_ms": 2946736,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1891750": [
{
"text": "Well, I think there's, there's a c- couple of things going on here, right?",
"start_ms": 1891750,
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},
{
"text": "It was fun. Well, I think there's, there's a c- couple of things going on here, right?",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7920842": [
{
"text": "I could not be more proud.",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, and, and I just wanna say a shout-out to Jared Isaacman, who's a friend of the pod, and, you know, what an extraordinary administrator. I could not be more proud.",
"start_ms": 7920842,
"lead_ms": 9220
},
{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, and, and I just wanna say a shout-out to Jared Isaacman, who's a friend of the pod, and, you know, what an extraordinary administrator. I could not be more proud.",
"start_ms": 7920282,
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}
],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__3668664": [
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"text": "Which is, you know, if you went back 10, 20 years and he's writing, doing all his amazing novels, uh, you had some sense of what, a glimmer of what the future might hold, right?",
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"text": "I, I have a spec- I, I have a specific question I wanna ask Neal Stephenson. Which is, you know, if you went back 10, 20 years and he's writing, doing all his amazing novels, uh, you had some sense of what, a glimmer of what the future might hold, right?",
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"text": "Like, when you go through, uh, you know, customs at the airport and you're no longer waiting in giant lines because, you know, facial detection puts you through instantly, uh, I'll make that trade.",
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{
"text": "There's always a trade. Like, when you go through, uh, you know, customs at the airport and you're no longer waiting in giant lines because, you know, facial detection puts you through instantly, uh, I'll make that trade.",
"start_ms": 3087106,
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{
"text": "You know, I, I... There's always a trade. Like, when you go through, uh, you know, customs at the airport and you're no longer waiting in giant lines because, you know, facial detection puts you through instantly, uh, I'll make that trade.",
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"text": "I, I, it's an interesting point.",
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{
"text": "I just don't... I, I, it's an interesting point.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, and I, I also-... I just don't... I, I, it's an interesting point.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8579318": [
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"text": "you do crowdfunding of the early thing, get early custom, and then use the customer demand to finance the hardware and generate the interaction data as you scale the product.",
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{
"text": "You, you crowdsource the, uh... you do crowdfunding of the early thing, get early custom, and then use the customer demand to finance the hardware and generate the interaction data as you scale the product.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6540804": [
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"text": "Yeah. Yeah, the-...",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__554088": [
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"text": "but, but, but, but I, I do wonder the extent to which the financial markets have fully priced in Nvidia's financing of their customers.",
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{
"text": "Uh, I'd be the last person to suggest that this is one big wash trade, uh, circular financing scheme, but I, I do wonder-... but, but, but, but I, I do wonder the extent to which the financial markets have fully priced in Nvidia's financing of their customers.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6333254": [
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"text": "So y- you can see how the dysfunction ripples through.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6814698": [
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"text": "It's reminding me of one of the more creative singularity solutions that we ever saw was, um, uh, at Singularity University.",
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{
"text": "I mean, crop management, all sorts of things become capable. It's reminding me of one of the more creative singularity solutions that we ever saw was, um, uh, at Singularity University.",
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{
"text": "You could do some really interesting stuff. I mean, crop management, all sorts of things become capable. It's reminding me of one of the more creative singularity solutions that we ever saw was, um, uh, at Singularity University.",
"start_ms": 6809838,
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8608798": [
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"text": "hot take, hot take on the hot sheets, which is I, I don't actually think this is that promising as an approach.",
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"text": "No, I'll give a hot-... hot take, hot take on the hot sheets, which is I, I don't actually think this is that promising as an approach.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. No, I'll give a hot-... hot take, hot take on the hot sheets, which is I, I don't actually think this is that promising as an approach.",
"start_ms": 8607698,
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2386082": [
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"text": "I have a bit of perhaps a contrarian perspective on this.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. I have a bit of perhaps a contrarian perspective on this.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8265572": [
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"text": "You know, the-- this-- the abundant story here is the poorest people in the planet will be driven around by electric autonomous vehicles.",
"start_ms": 8266472,
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{
"text": "Yeah. You know, the-- this-- the abundant story here is the poorest people in the planet will be driven around by electric autonomous vehicles.",
"start_ms": 8265572,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4769250": [
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"text": "is something-- I, I suspect, this is my, my theory of the case.",
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"text": "When it's discovering new medicines and new physics and...",
"start_ms": 1257830,
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{
"text": "It literally doesn't care. When it's discovering new medicines and new physics and...",
"start_ms": 1256230,
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{
"text": "It doesn't care.\" It literally doesn't care. When it's discovering new medicines and new physics and...",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2016770": [
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"text": "Oh my God, they're, they're huge.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2522986": [
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"text": "the, the place to watch on this is Japan,'cause they tend to be much more tolerant of this type of stuff.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, the-... the, the place to watch on this is Japan,'cause they tend to be much more tolerant of this type of stuff.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__680248": [
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"text": "And, you know, there's this level of, of fearmongering in the, in the financial markets.",
"start_ms": 693448,
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{
"text": "the PE ratios are off the charts\"? And, you know, there's this level of, of fearmongering in the, in the financial markets.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5463910": [
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"text": "next few, uh, coming years.",
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{
"text": "One of the things that was mentioned was that the, uh, the, Nvidia's CUDA, uh, moat may be dead in this-... next few, uh, coming years.",
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"text": "I have a question for you guys. One of the things that was mentioned was that the, uh, the, Nvidia's CUDA, uh, moat may be dead in this-... next few, uh, coming years.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__878070": [
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"text": "And then the size always turns out to be right, and the timeline is off by a couple years because of unforeseen delays.",
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"text": "So he always says, \"Look, this is the native size of the opportunity, and this is the best case timeline.\" And then the size always turns out to be right, and the timeline is off by a couple years because of unforeseen delays.",
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"text": "Uh, where he made the point, I think very importantly, that AI is one of the most persuasive agents out there, the ability to understand a person and persuade a person.",
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{
"text": "He had to last minute travel. Uh, where he made the point, I think very importantly, that AI is one of the most persuasive agents out there, the ability to understand a person and persuade a person.",
"start_ms": 1978440,
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{
"text": "He was supposed to be here. He had to last minute travel. Uh, where he made the point, I think very importantly, that AI is one of the most persuasive agents out there, the ability to understand a person and persuade a person.",
"start_ms": 1977650,
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6400334": [
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"text": "And I mean, I, I think the abundant story here is it is possible, um, to really create a massive amount of energy from, from solar.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1049350": [
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"text": "So, uh, I know he's probably walking around with an army of guards.",
"start_ms": 1055900,
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{
"text": "you know, I think the biggest risk is just Elon being around long enough to implement his, his vision. So, uh, I know he's probably walking around with an army of guards.",
"start_ms": 1049760,
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{
"text": "Um-... you know, I think the biggest risk is just Elon being around long enough to implement his, his vision. So, uh, I know he's probably walking around with an army of guards.",
"start_ms": 1048980,
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4162165": [
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"text": "Yeah, two or three things.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__629008": [
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"text": "I, I would not like to discover two to three years from now that some of, uh, some or a large portion of all of this demand at the infra layer was being artificially propped up through financial engineering.",
"start_ms": 615708,
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{
"text": "I'd like to see no hiccups in this singularity. I, I would not like to discover two to three years from now that some of, uh, some or a large portion of all of this demand at the infra layer was being artificially propped up through financial engineering.",
"start_ms": 611947,
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8101272": [
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"text": "And, you know, for-- if there are entrepreneurs out there, when the CyberCab comes out, you know, buy 100 of them, put them out to work, and we'll have a fleet of CyberCabs generating revenue for you.",
"start_ms": 8103592,
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{
"text": "You know, uh, it's gonna be amazing. And, you know, for-- if there are entrepreneurs out there, when the CyberCab comes out, you know, buy 100 of them, put them out to work, and we'll have a fleet of CyberCabs generating revenue for you.",
"start_ms": 8101272,
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8240772": [
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"text": "It totally changes the game on insurance and, and cleaning up and charging and all sorts of-- I think you'll turn gas stations into autonomous car cleaning depots.",
"start_ms": 8231371,
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{
"text": "So I think there's some really amazing downstream benefits from all of this. It totally changes the game on insurance and, and cleaning up and charging and all sorts of-- I think you'll turn gas stations into autonomous car cleaning depots.",
"start_ms": 8227472,
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6946118": [
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"text": "Yeah, you know, it's interesting.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7450354": [
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"text": "really well, stock went way up.",
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{
"text": "But, you know, I get, I get really excited about-- You know that Moderna story we had recently where they had a melanoma vaccine that works-... really well, stock went way up.",
"start_ms": 7451434,
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{
"text": "Uh, it's fine. But, you know, I get, I get really excited about-- You know that Moderna story we had recently where they had a melanoma vaccine that works-... really well, stock went way up.",
"start_ms": 7450354,
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__7570584": [
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"text": "uh, Earth's Dyson swarm.",
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"text": "You know, clearly, they are not taking into account, Alex, manufacturing StarMine on the Moon to fuel-... uh, Earth's Dyson swarm.",
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{
"text": "They cite SpaceX as the biggest winner because of the central role that Starship will play. You know, clearly, they are not taking into account, Alex, manufacturing StarMine on the Moon to fuel-... uh, Earth's Dyson swarm.",
"start_ms": 7558434,
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__2264442": [
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"text": "Um, and so this is a totally new regulatory frontier.",
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"text": "Um, we've got-- we've gone from regulating from what AI says in the China case to saying, uh, regulating how attached are you, uh, to become to it, right? Um, and so this is a totally new regulatory frontier.",
"start_ms": 2285702,
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__5946678": [
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"text": "So I had kind of a handshake hello, and Steve Jobs looks at the audience, and he goes...",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1583710": [
{
"text": "The world models are predicting the next state of reality.",
"start_ms": 1580370,
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{
"text": "Language models predict the next token. The world models are predicting the next state of reality.",
"start_ms": 1578230,
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{
"text": "China is building world models. Language models predict the next token. The world models are predicting the next state of reality.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__1000200": [
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"text": "I think applications, which in- interestingly in the SpaceX S1, SpaceX went on and on and on about, uh, digital Optimus and applications and the service economy, m- maybe seems unlikely.",
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"text": "I think cars are rounding error. I think applications, which in- interestingly in the SpaceX S1, SpaceX went on and on and on about, uh, digital Optimus and applications and the service economy, m- maybe seems unlikely.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__8162052": [
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"text": "It's, it's like these are telltale signs of what cities are on the singularity curve and which are not.",
"start_ms": 8169932,
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"text": "was made-- when Uber was made illegal in France, I was like, \"Okay, if you're an entrepreneur, don't move to France.\" It's, it's like these are telltale signs of what cities are on the singularity curve and which are not.",
"start_ms": 8163582,
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{
"text": "Yeah, I-- same thing when Uber-... was made-- when Uber was made illegal in France, I was like, \"Okay, if you're an entrepreneur, don't move to France.\" It's, it's like these are telltale signs of what cities are on the singularity curve and which are not.",
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],
"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__4965310": [
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"text": "This story reported on CNN says, \"Data centers helped resurrect Quincy, Washington, where the poverty rate fell from 29.4% to 6.2%.",
"start_ms": 4955740,
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"text": "It comes out of Quincy, Washington, where the data centers have had extraordinary positive civic impact. This story reported on CNN says, \"Data centers helped resurrect Quincy, Washington, where the poverty rate fell from 29.4% to 6.2%.",
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"nvidia_s_96_2b_quarter_china_s_200_000_fake_accounts_openai__6313134": [
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"text": "We have 80 years of advances in power electronics that by and large are not being used and have not been used to enrich uranium either because we're scared of doing it or because we've handcuffed ourselves in terms of our being able to do it.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5289862": [
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"text": "So the memory story is simple: AI needs memory to think.",
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"text": "First, its first half revenues hit eight point six billion, with net margin gains going from three point nine percent to forty-seven point seven percent. So the memory story is simple: AI needs memory to think.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_39760": [
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"text": "Now it's simply a fact.",
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"text": "Elon Musk's January 6th Moonshots podcast prediction of 100X gains was at the edge of plausibility when he made it. Now it's simply a fact.",
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"text": "but the capability gap narrows.",
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"text": "And so here's my question for you guys: If OpenAI pauses and open weight models do not, then the safety gap between closed and open models widen, uh-... but the capability gap narrows.",
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"text": "'Cause this is something we probably could have seen coming.",
"start_ms": 6686368,
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"text": "I- I'll make a- I'll make one forward-looking prediction here, right?'Cause this is something we probably could have seen coming.",
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"text": "Yes Hundred percent, right?",
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"text": "One sentence answers.",
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{
"text": "It's infrastructure.",
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"text": "One million deliveries per day is not a pilot program. It's infrastructure.",
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{
"text": "Dave, you've been saying that. One million deliveries per day is not a pilot program. It's infrastructure.",
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"text": "Uh, that the models in the future are going to be sparser, and there are two key levels of sparsification that I'm at least tracking.",
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"text": "Uh, so, so in, like, doing research, turns out istismar, uh, in, uh, in Turkish is the word for exploitation or abuse.",
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"text": "Is tismeran, I think is how it's pronounced. Uh, so, so in, like, doing research, turns out istismar, uh, in, uh, in Turkish is the word for exploitation or abuse.",
"start_ms": 7001958,
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{
"text": "So, so the drug's name, the official name is Uh, uh, let's see if I get this right. Is tismeran, I think is how it's pronounced. Uh, so, so in, like, doing research, turns out istismar, uh, in, uh, in Turkish is the word for exploitation or abuse.",
"start_ms": 6997318,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7909446": [
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"text": "So no matter what you know, you probably know a field that needs to supply data back to the great AI.",
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"text": "Uh, they're just absolutely killing it, but every field of endeavor is gonna be data starved. So no matter what you know, you probably know a field that needs to supply data back to the great AI.",
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"text": "We've done a pretty good job of reading.",
"start_ms": 7751546,
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{
"text": "When you're trying to learn a new language, in this case, the language of biology. We've done a pretty good job of reading.",
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"text": "You know, you have reading, writing, comprehension, right? When you're trying to learn a new language, in this case, the language of biology. We've done a pretty good job of reading.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_8138314": [
{
"text": "So I'll s- take question number eight.",
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{
"text": "Okay. So I'll s- take question number eight.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3602798": [
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"text": "So the point of this new class would be to let the founders retain as much voting control and, uh, as compared to their ownership stake.",
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"text": "And it's expected that the cost of this treatment will be as low as $5,000.",
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"text": "The phase two results stopped recurrence of death by 49% and distant metap- uh, me- uh, metastasis or death by 59% over five years. And it's expected that the cost of this treatment will be as low as $5,000.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3057390": [
{
"text": "In our next story, Anthropic researchers published a paper demonstrating that natural language mind viruses can spread between AI agents.",
"start_ms": 3061330,
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{
"text": "I, I love this subject here. In our next story, Anthropic researchers published a paper demonstrating that natural language mind viruses can spread between AI agents.",
"start_ms": 3059790,
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{
"text": "All right, guys, let's talk about AI mind viruses. I, I love this subject here. In our next story, Anthropic researchers published a paper demonstrating that natural language mind viruses can spread between AI agents.",
"start_ms": 3057390,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1439686": [
{
"text": "But the ones that are going to the Ivy Leagues, the super genius models, those are the ones that they're putting a few more guardrails and more infrastructure around.",
"start_ms": 1449106,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7038698": [
{
"text": "It's 2026, and we caught up with the future.",
"start_ms": 7060258,
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{
"text": "Well, guess what? It's 2026, and we caught up with the future.",
"start_ms": 7059238,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2170458": [
{
"text": "'cause it sounds like, you know, you disagree with, with Elon, but it's actually the same effect.",
"start_ms": 2172488,
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"text": "Let me, let me clarify one thing for the audience too-...'cause it sounds like, you know, you disagree with, with Elon, but it's actually the same effect.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6801378": [
{
"text": "Why would you spend a trillion dollars putting roads across Africa?",
"start_ms": 6817498,
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{
"text": "And they looked at Africa and they th- they realized that Africa leapfrogged the entire landline and went to a billion mobile handsets. Why would you spend a trillion dollars putting roads across Africa?",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7419234": [
{
"text": "So our final story here is about AidoCell, A-I-D-O is how it's spelled, a general purpose cell simulator that mainta- maintains cellular state, accepts interventions, and predicts multimodal biological outcomes. The goal?",
"start_ms": 7447794,
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"text": "I know, uh, Alex, you as well. So our final story here is about AidoCell, A-I-D-O is how it's spelled, a general purpose cell simulator that mainta- maintains cellular state, accepts interventions, and predicts multimodal biological outcomes. The goal?",
"start_ms": 7445554,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5763878": [
{
"text": "this should be, this demand should be obvious, right?",
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{
"text": "And, and everybody-... this should be, this demand should be obvious, right?",
"start_ms": 5763878,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4614190": [
{
"text": "There's the argument again.",
"start_ms": 4659250,
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},
{
"text": "One, AI will cure disease. There's the argument again.",
"start_ms": 4657250,
"lead_ms": 3440
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{
"text": "In his writings, Amadei makes a three-part argument. One, AI will cure disease. There's the argument again.",
"start_ms": 4653930,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7828206": [
{
"text": "the biggest- Yeah Yeah, we've done that in the UK where you have access to this.",
"start_ms": 7810726,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_787156": [
{
"text": "And they said, \"Look, a billion people use OpenAI for free, right?",
"start_ms": 806356,
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{
"text": "So the cost of inference is, is collapsing, so how are you gonna deal with that?\" And they said, \"Look, a billion people use OpenAI for free, right?",
"start_ms": 802216,
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{
"text": "So I said, \"Okay, Chinese models are cheaper to run, right? So the cost of inference is, is collapsing, so how are you gonna deal with that?\" And they said, \"Look, a billion people use OpenAI for free, right?",
"start_ms": 799176,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7838326": [
{
"text": "Like, again, where they apply their computation to, they will build a human cell model.",
"start_ms": 7834666,
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{
"text": "Every government should follow suit, and this fits with what we talked about earlier with Anthropic. Like, again, where they apply their computation to, they will build a human cell model.",
"start_ms": 7830626,
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{
"text": "Yeah, we've done that in the UK where you have access to this. Every government should follow suit, and this fits with what we talked about earlier with Anthropic. Like, again, where they apply their computation to, they will build a human cell model.",
"start_ms": 7828206,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5651838": [
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"text": "they're massively more valuable than gold.",
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{
"text": "Well, actually, if you, if you look at the chips before they go into the packages,'cause the packages are 99% of the weight or 90% of the weight-... they're massively more valuable than gold.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3700998": [
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"text": "Uh, so then it became fashionable, you know, with Google IPO and Meta and then all the Silicon Valley IPOs.",
"start_ms": 3716018,
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"text": "The stock would be like, you know, 1/50 of what it is today. Uh, so then it became fashionable, you know, with Google IPO and Meta and then all the Silicon Valley IPOs.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3263850": [
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"text": "So this is, for me, is very, very dangerous because these AI memes, if, if, the, the kind of danger of, uh, the wrong idea spreading at light speed, uh, this is very, very difficult.",
"start_ms": 3267910,
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{
"text": "And so groupthink becomes very hard to reverse if you get into that. So this is, for me, is very, very dangerous because these AI memes, if, if, the, the kind of danger of, uh, the wrong idea spreading at light speed, uh, this is very, very difficult.",
"start_ms": 3263850,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1071736": [
{
"text": "He, he might have a question for you.",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4743830": [
{
"text": "Now, OpenAI can't be a singleton.",
"start_ms": 4748630,
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{
"text": "So he, working with Sam and others, he helped to summon OpenAI into existence. Now, OpenAI can't be a singleton.",
"start_ms": 4743830,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_632568": [
{
"text": "Like, just the sheer level.",
"start_ms": 651168,
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{
"text": "Can you imagine that? Like, just the sheer level.",
"start_ms": 650208,
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{
"text": "at AMP Global, said that 10% of the compute of frontier labs is going on monitoring these RL runs right now to ensure they're safe. Can you imagine that? Like, just the sheer level.",
"start_ms": 641108,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1334206": [
{
"text": "So they're never going to slow down.",
"start_ms": 1364046,
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{
"text": "So the AI now can experiment, you know, maybe a hundred thousand to a million of those concurrently given the amount of compute they have. So they're never going to slow down.",
"start_ms": 1356926,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3450298": [
{
"text": "They weren't stupid.",
"start_ms": 3452378,
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{
"text": "Uh, we've seen this, uh, that this is... They weren't stupid.",
"start_ms": 3450298,
"lead_ms": 2820
},
{
"text": "wrong, wrong meme, like Kodak, BlackBerry. Uh, we've seen this, uh, that this is... They weren't stupid.",
"start_ms": 3447648,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6847878": [
{
"text": "W- what Rwanda did, uh, where a lot of this started was they basically said there's a three-dimensional tube across the country, uh, like an, uh, superhighway.",
"start_ms": 6848178,
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{
"text": "Yeah Yeah. W- what Rwanda did, uh, where a lot of this started was they basically said there's a three-dimensional tube across the country, uh, like an, uh, superhighway.",
"start_ms": 6844538,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5231262": [
{
"text": "They've climbed five hundred percent in 12 months.",
"start_ms": 5228402,
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{
"text": "So, uh, you know, the first story here is the stratospheric increase in memory prices. They've climbed five hundred percent in 12 months.",
"start_ms": 5223282,
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}
],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7303838": [
{
"text": "You remember when Enron and Tyco had all those fraud issues, they passed the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and a bunch of other laws.",
"start_ms": 7316518,
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{
"text": "But number two is, you know, back, uh... You remember when Enron and Tyco had all those fraud issues, they passed the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and a bunch of other laws.",
"start_ms": 7314198,
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{
"text": "That's, that's advice number one. But number two is, you know, back, uh... You remember when Enron and Tyco had all those fraud issues, they passed the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and a bunch of other laws.",
"start_ms": 7313038,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7923366": [
{
"text": "I mean, it's probably worth noting that this is from a company co-founded by David Baker, who shared the 2024 Nobel Prize in chemistry with Demis for solving protein folding.",
"start_ms": 7924426,
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{
"text": "And so competitive too. I mean, it's probably worth noting that this is from a company co-founded by David Baker, who shared the 2024 Nobel Prize in chemistry with Demis for solving protein folding.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_841176": [
{
"text": "And, um, their res- the response I got back was, people say it's all chips, but it's not.",
"start_ms": 841176,
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},
{
"text": "Six hundred billion in infrastructure cost, that's just insane,\" et cetera, et cetera. And, um, their res- the response I got back was, people say it's all chips, but it's not.",
"start_ms": 836636,
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{
"text": "Uh, so then I said, \"Okay, we're in a bubble, right? Six hundred billion in infrastructure cost, that's just insane,\" et cetera, et cetera. And, um, their res- the response I got back was, people say it's all chips, but it's not.",
"start_ms": 834196,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5619638": [
{
"text": "I have the same thing.",
"start_ms": 5619638,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5681838": [
{
"text": "So I think that it may be that we don't find a breakthrough, but I wouldn't bet against it.",
"start_ms": 5681838,
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{
"text": "And the market finds a way, like this is ridiculous. So I think that it may be that we don't find a breakthrough, but I wouldn't bet against it.",
"start_ms": 5677858,
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{
"text": "Yeah, no, the memory right now is about a third of all the infrastructure spend, and next year it'll go to 50%. And the market finds a way, like this is ridiculous. So I think that it may be that we don't find a breakthrough, but I wouldn't bet against it.",
"start_ms": 5671518,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5831918": [
{
"text": "There's Ar- Architect Labs.",
"start_ms": 5837498,
"lead_ms": 1580
},
{
"text": "Oh. There's Ar- Architect Labs.",
"start_ms": 5836888,
"lead_ms": 2190
},
{
"text": "A few years after. Oh. There's Ar- Architect Labs.",
"start_ms": 5833368,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6071066": [
{
"text": "Like, no, I, I don't think we're going to wind up with like super strong leg robots.",
"start_ms": 6066866,
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},
{
"text": "specialist models. Like, no, I, I don't think we're going to wind up with like super strong leg robots.",
"start_ms": 6066076,
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}
],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4190622": [
{
"text": "And until you've got a better decision, there's only one thing that they really see as the outcome, which is, \"I must decide.\"",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2737574": [
{
"text": "You know, if we actually have model convergence, uh, when intelligence becomes a commodity, and we've already said, we've shown the numbers, it's becoming a commodity, then the value moves to the application layer, right?",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2805964": [
{
"text": "Well, I, I think that's exactly it, Salim.",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2971974": [
{
"text": "The audience, I predict three to six months from now, the audience is going to say, \"We need to go...",
"start_ms": 2978734,
"lead_ms": 5120
},
{
"text": "Definitely coming back to this conversation. The audience, I predict three to six months from now, the audience is going to say, \"We need to go...",
"start_ms": 2977014,
"lead_ms": 6840
},
{
"text": "Yeah We're definitely coming back to this. Definitely coming back to this conversation. The audience, I predict three to six months from now, the audience is going to say, \"We need to go...",
"start_ms": 2971974,
"lead_ms": 11880
}
],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6135326": [
{
"text": "Well, as an investment theme, post AGI, post ASI, which is very, very soon, uh, robotics is just fertile because, because of exactly what Salim's been saying for a long time.",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6253446": [
{
"text": "I, I, I totally by that in the near future we'll see, well, this road is zoned for the following, like, power density of robot, or th- this, this, we'll probably see, like, classes of them and certain...",
"start_ms": 6272590,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_8039466": [
{
"text": "And regulatory is the problem, so it doesn't really serve as an XPRIZE where you need huge technology breakthrough.",
"start_ms": 8039946,
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{
"text": "But it looks like the market will take care of that. And regulatory is the problem, so it doesn't really serve as an XPRIZE where you need huge technology breakthrough.",
"start_ms": 8037126,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_252000": [
{
"text": "It's, it's, uh, uh, you know, this goes back to Peter, right?",
"start_ms": 254800,
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},
{
"text": "This is the s- This is the slowest it's gonna get. It's, it's, uh, uh, you know, this goes back to Peter, right?",
"start_ms": 248540,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2446727": [
{
"text": "You're starting to the first elements of that as intelligence shapes the data into these kind of latent spaces.",
"start_ms": 2464838,
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{
"text": "Um, and you don't see the models yet doing crazy original stuff. You're starting to the first elements of that as intelligence shapes the data into these kind of latent spaces.",
"start_ms": 2458938,
"lead_ms": 12400
},
{
"text": "And some train a bit more, some have a slightly different RL, and things like that. Um, and you don't see the models yet doing crazy original stuff. You're starting to the first elements of that as intelligence shapes the data into these kind of latent spaces.",
"start_ms": 2454588,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6570610": [
{
"text": "I think that works really well for Uber as long as it maintains competition, uh, healthful competition among all of its mobility suppliers.",
"start_ms": 6586070,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7604143": [
{
"text": "My, my bet is it'll be probably a class of molecules, um, maybe like fourth or fifth generation, uh, GLP-1s that, that get us to LEV.",
"start_ms": 7610534,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_8052576": [
{
"text": "But between here and there, it's all about chips.",
"start_ms": 8075086,
"lead_ms": 2280
},
{
"text": "We'll get that far, then we'll be really desperate for more power. But between here and there, it's all about chips.",
"start_ms": 8070846,
"lead_ms": 6520
},
{
"text": "We already manufacture a terawatt in the US, so we're-- 10% of power will go to AI by the end of the decade. We'll get that far, then we'll be really desperate for more power. But between here and there, it's all about chips.",
"start_ms": 8065146,
"lead_ms": 12220
}
],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1633998": [
{
"text": "and, and reserving compute.",
"start_ms": 1634038,
"lead_ms": 1500
},
{
"text": "And corporations that wanna live post AGI are getting Chinese models in-house at-... and, and reserving compute.",
"start_ms": 1628888,
"lead_ms": 6650
},
{
"text": "And right now, that's starting to look like RSI and not just enterprise code gen. And corporations that wanna live post AGI are getting Chinese models in-house at-... and, and reserving compute.",
"start_ms": 1620078,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2274058": [
{
"text": "They use the same internal representations.",
"start_ms": 2318658,
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},
{
"text": "They solve problems the same way. They use the same internal representations.",
"start_ms": 2317178,
"lead_ms": 4280
},
{
"text": "They think the same way. They solve problems the same way. They use the same internal representations.",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7856446": [
{
"text": "I have no idea how to do that,\" you're thinking about it the wrong way.",
"start_ms": 7861695,
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{
"text": "Well, just for, for anyone listening who's not a biotechnologist and they're like, \"Well, I'm not gonna build a full cell simulator. I have no idea how to do that,\" you're thinking about it the wrong way.",
"start_ms": 7856446,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6228486": [
{
"text": "That's kind of my contention here. Well, yeah.",
"start_ms": 6235766,
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},
{
"text": "No, the, the extreme robots which have beyond human capabilities will be kept off the streets, or they'll be regulated. That's kind of my contention here. Well, yeah.",
"start_ms": 6228486,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6368970": [
{
"text": "So this week, Zipline announced that they are scaling to provide Uber Eats with more than one million autonomous deliveries per day.",
"start_ms": 6405750,
"lead_ms": 7840
},
{
"text": "I had, uh, Keller on stage at the Abundance Summit last year, along with Dara from, uh, from Uber. So this week, Zipline announced that they are scaling to provide Uber Eats with more than one million autonomous deliveries per day.",
"start_ms": 6399809,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1888608": [
{
"text": "And imagine you have all of, and the engineering breakthroughs and experimentation techniques that SpaceX has developed at your fingertips.",
"start_ms": 1890458,
"lead_ms": 9780
},
{
"text": "with 100X capability? And imagine you have all of, and the engineering breakthroughs and experimentation techniques that SpaceX has developed at your fingertips.",
"start_ms": 1888658,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3217250": [
{
"text": "For me, this is very, very scary, um, for a couple of specific points, right?",
"start_ms": 3226910,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5930346": [
{
"text": "But I think the big story here is the three-month compression loop here, right?",
"start_ms": 5954566,
"lead_ms": 4600
},
{
"text": "So really, really appreciate it. But I think the big story here is the three-month compression loop here, right?",
"start_ms": 5952876,
"lead_ms": 6290
},
{
"text": "Totally, totally love it. So really, really appreciate it. But I think the big story here is the three-month compression loop here, right?",
"start_ms": 5951806,
"lead_ms": 7360
}
],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_8309754": [
{
"text": "These things are not polluting.",
"start_ms": 8324193,
"lead_ms": 1660
},
{
"text": "More power is good. These things are not polluting.",
"start_ms": 8322834,
"lead_ms": 3019
},
{
"text": "It's gonna make your electricity cheaper. More power is good. These things are not polluting.",
"start_ms": 8320614,
"lead_ms": 5239
}
],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_8241282": [
{
"text": "So it's not about accepting that capacity.",
"start_ms": 8272714,
"lead_ms": 2590
},
{
"text": "If one company slows down, or country, than others won't. So it's not about accepting that capacity.",
"start_ms": 8268773,
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{
"text": "There's also competitive pressure. If one company slows down, or country, than others won't. So it's not about accepting that capacity.",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6981558": [
{
"text": "That's the superficial thought.",
"start_ms": 6989658,
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{
"text": "Uh, so the, the superficial thought, this is obviously a great day for cancer survivors and for treating cancer in general. That's the superficial thought.",
"start_ms": 6982858,
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{
"text": "So many thoughts on this. Uh, so the, the superficial thought, this is obviously a great day for cancer survivors and for treating cancer in general. That's the superficial thought.",
"start_ms": 6981558,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1307766": [
{
"text": "Uh, the, the getting ahead of Anthropic, getting ahead of, of Google would be at the pre-training level.",
"start_ms": 1314206,
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{
"text": "Yeah, and, and you're, you're right to pause the sentence or to, to parse the sentence very closely, some frontier RL training. Uh, the, the getting ahead of Anthropic, getting ahead of, of Google would be at the pre-training level.",
"start_ms": 1307766,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7351774": [
{
"text": "It's just a question of time.",
"start_ms": 7376614,
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{
"text": "But it was no secret that this Moderna platform can basically be used for any form of cancer and, and that it's, you know, highly likely to work. It's just a question of time.",
"start_ms": 7365974,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6919018": [
{
"text": "Uh, you do a whole exome and RNA sequencing.",
"start_ms": 6925878,
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{
"text": "You grab tissue. Uh, you do a whole exome and RNA sequencing.",
"start_ms": 6924378,
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{
"text": "So the first thing you're doing is you do a surgical resection of that tumor. You grab tissue. Uh, you do a whole exome and RNA sequencing.",
"start_ms": 6920618,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_689828": [
{
"text": "This is marketing.",
"start_ms": 691248,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1961418": [
{
"text": "And you're seeing this with DeepSeek Flash and the ability to kind of tune models of that type that only have maybe 10 billion active parameters or less as you quantize them.",
"start_ms": 1979578,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4130942": [
{
"text": "There are kind of- Right.",
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{
"text": "I don't think we'd have any doubt of that. There are kind of- Right.",
"start_ms": 4128792,
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{
"text": "Like Sam Altman has no shares, but do we have any doubt that Sam Altman is in full control of OpenAI? I don't think we'd have any doubt of that. There are kind of- Right.",
"start_ms": 4122502,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4551400": [
{
"text": "Yeah, I think it is good marketing, as Alex said, but it's also the biggest, apart from RSI, impact to tokens, right?",
"start_ms": 4559070,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4572990": [
{
"text": "And for Dario himself, I think that he should do a lot more writing and less in-person things.",
"start_ms": 4591690,
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{
"text": "So I think that there is the personal side, there is a marketing side, and it all comes together. And for Dario himself, I think that he should do a lot more writing and less in-person things.",
"start_ms": 4587730,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4238862": [
{
"text": "But that's how close they were, you know?",
"start_ms": 4263462,
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{
"text": "He knew it was coming. But that's how close they were, you know?",
"start_ms": 4262802,
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{
"text": "And so he wouldn't even unpack. He knew it was coming. But that's how close they were, you know?",
"start_ms": 4261702,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2583258": [
{
"text": "So Alex, I'll take the other side of this.",
"start_ms": 2599914,
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"text": "I would suggest this might be a transient phase, not an end state, that the models will all converge. So Alex, I'll take the other side of this.",
"start_ms": 2595074,
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{
"text": "Uh, this may be... I would suggest this might be a transient phase, not an end state, that the models will all converge. So Alex, I'll take the other side of this.",
"start_ms": 2593534,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2919474": [
{
"text": "I think it's possible for both of these worlds, so the, like the, the, the Diamond Age worlds, like you have neo-Victorians and all of these other, like, almost cultish subsets of, of human culture that are thoroughly balkanized from each other.",
"start_ms": 2908614,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3671578": [
{
"text": "Then when MicroStrategy went public, uh, you know, Mike Saylor, our good friend, uh, he said, \"We're keeping my super voting stock intact,\" and Goldman Sachs said, \"That is so unpalatable that we will not even underwrite you.",
"start_ms": 3684458,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3115230": [
{
"text": "So it's almost like now there was always the problem of prompt injection attacks, where you can make the model behave a certain way.",
"start_ms": 3139350,
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{
"text": "Well, they're models that operate on GPUs, and if they wanna be helpful, then they're gonna be susceptible. So it's almost like now there was always the problem of prompt injection attacks, where you can make the model behave a certain way.",
"start_ms": 3133710,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4684880": [
{
"text": "It's possible for both of those to be true at the same time. I, I do think-...",
"start_ms": 4681630,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_8296214": [
{
"text": "Yeah Well, whatever happened to those too?",
"start_ms": 8294554,
"lead_ms": 2959
},
{
"text": "Actually, you know, Elon Musk started, his passion in life was ultra capacitors originally. Yeah Well, whatever happened to those too?",
"start_ms": 8287414,
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},
{
"text": "\"Whatever happened to fuel cells?\" Actually, you know, Elon Musk started, his passion in life was ultra capacitors originally. Yeah Well, whatever happened to those too?",
"start_ms": 8285794,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_583658": [
{
"text": "We believe the entire field will have to coordinate on shared safety standards but will act unilaterally in the meantime.",
"start_ms": 575568,
"lead_ms": 8090
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{
"text": "Quote, uh, \"We care very deeply about AI safety. We believe the entire field will have to coordinate on shared safety standards but will act unilaterally in the meantime.",
"start_ms": 571968,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3956326": [
{
"text": "Oh, to raise money, you have to generate revenue.",
"start_ms": 3956326,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5317542": [
{
"text": "And so as a result, uh, all, all of the toilet paper a-and, you know, various other artifacts that were designed for enterprise consumption were suddenly being rerouted to consumer, and that led to all sorts of supply chain hiccups.",
"start_ms": 5335582,
"lead_ms": 13840
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5450462": [
{
"text": "The, the advent of transformers and then frontier models has completely turned the, the whole situation upside down.",
"start_ms": 5473322,
"lead_ms": 6580
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{
"text": "But there's basically a clean separation between the compute part, which is the head, and the memory part. The, the advent of transformers and then frontier models has completely turned the, the whole situation upside down.",
"start_ms": 5465862,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2097378": [
{
"text": "That's a specialized case, ironically, of sparsification.",
"start_ms": 2124318,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2331018": [
{
"text": "Uh, the training data has become a shared bloodstream.",
"start_ms": 2335188,
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},
{
"text": "Qwen learns from all of them. Uh, the training data has become a shared bloodstream.",
"start_ms": 2333078,
"lead_ms": 5100
},
{
"text": "Claude learns from Gemini's code. Qwen learns from all of them. Uh, the training data has become a shared bloodstream.",
"start_ms": 2331018,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5842958": [
{
"text": "I, I had a chance to seed invest in that, and I missed it.",
"start_ms": 5833547,
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},
{
"text": "Oh, I missed it. I, I had a chance to seed invest in that, and I missed it.",
"start_ms": 5832688,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5783798": [
{
"text": "there's something even more scandalous, which is I don't actually think at the end of the day individuals have that much information about them that's worth remembering.",
"start_ms": 5785407,
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{
"text": "All right, I'm gonna- Just, just to re- refine that point a little bit-... there's something even more scandalous, which is I don't actually think at the end of the day individuals have that much information about them that's worth remembering.",
"start_ms": 5782548,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3831146": [
{
"text": "Like, they're catching up with Google on revenue.",
"start_ms": 3868706,
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{
"text": "Like, these guys are gonna hit $100 billion in revenue literally within a couple of years. Like, they're catching up with Google on revenue.",
"start_ms": 3864626,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5093040": [
{
"text": "You know, my- our goal with, with, uh, Build with Gemini XPRIZE is teach people how to fish.",
"start_ms": 5124430,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5168050": [
{
"text": "Um- So our next story, uh, memory is the bottleneck.",
"start_ms": 5166670,
"lead_ms": 6280
},
{
"text": "You know, uh, I'm, I'm pumped. Um- So our next story, uh, memory is the bottleneck.",
"start_ms": 5163750,
"lead_ms": 9200
},
{
"text": "over 5,000 people who entered this, you know, uh, largest world film competition, uh, and Neil deGrasse Tyson and Neal Stephenson, uh, will be judges in that. You know, uh, I'm, I'm pumped. Um- So our next story, uh, memory is the bottleneck.",
"start_ms": 5153230,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1045915": [
{
"text": "You know, it's accelerating internally.",
"start_ms": 1052536,
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{
"text": "But they're not gonna release any of that. You know, it's accelerating internally.",
"start_ms": 1050556,
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{
"text": "But they're using it inside Anthropic, and it's building Mythos-3. But they're not gonna release any of that. You know, it's accelerating internally.",
"start_ms": 1045915,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4205392": [
{
"text": "And, and the knee-jerk reaction everyone has is, \"Look, we need more voices.",
"start_ms": 4208692,
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{
"text": "I, I'm really torn on this, Ahmad,'cause it, you know, it, it's so important. And, and the knee-jerk reaction everyone has is, \"Look, we need more voices.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6194566": [
{
"text": "I think that these types of robots will be banned from the streets. So-...",
"start_ms": 6185366,
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{
"text": "Yeah. I think that these types of robots will be banned from the streets. So-...",
"start_ms": 6185046,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2628174": [
{
"text": "I think, I, I remember a few years ago folks were studying this.",
"start_ms": 2651053,
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{
"text": "You find maybe a few dozen different body plans max. I think, I, I remember a few years ago folks were studying this.",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2019958": [
{
"text": "And it really shows that now tokens are really gonna drive things forward.",
"start_ms": 2028438,
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{
"text": "This is why thinking machines with the RL environments is like number three on the, like fastest growing earning companies and other things like that. And it really shows that now tokens are really gonna drive things forward.",
"start_ms": 2019958,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7704054": [
{
"text": "Well, this has been a trend of, I'll go back to the biotech stuff, right?",
"start_ms": 7705954,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3771506": [
{
"text": "So you don't want to fire me.\"",
"start_ms": 3758986,
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},
{
"text": "Um, and you guys really like me as CEO, right? So you don't want to fire me.\"",
"start_ms": 3756546,
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},
{
"text": "excuse he'll use is the usual one, which is, \"I don't want to be fired post-IPO. Um, and you guys really like me as CEO, right? So you don't want to fire me.\"",
"start_ms": 3751566,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_8199964": [
{
"text": "Uh, people use the power difference as a way to explain that AI thinking is very, very different from human thinking.",
"start_ms": 8210984,
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{
"text": "I'll, I'll put a pin in a corollary to that too. Uh, people use the power difference as a way to explain that AI thinking is very, very different from human thinking.",
"start_ms": 8209034,
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{
"text": "Yeah Yeah. I'll, I'll put a pin in a corollary to that too. Uh, people use the power difference as a way to explain that AI thinking is very, very different from human thinking.",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1109236": [
{
"text": "So you've got Astra, and then you have the next generation Astra post train that they're now reinforcement learning.",
"start_ms": 1120296,
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{
"text": "And I think you're about two generations more. So you've got Astra, and then you have the next generation Astra post train that they're now reinforcement learning.",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2384298": [
{
"text": "there's, there's an alternative explanation, which is all of these models were trained from a common reality.",
"start_ms": 2385838,
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{
"text": "Well-... there's, there's an alternative explanation, which is all of these models were trained from a common reality.",
"start_ms": 2384298,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3502038": [
{
"text": "Yeah, I mean, I think it's, uh, fantastic and scary, and this is the future, right?",
"start_ms": 3502038,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4171301": [
{
"text": "So we've suggested some of that in our Commonwealth series, and we've got more stuff coming out, but it's a really hard problem.",
"start_ms": 4165801,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6489170": [
{
"text": "I, I think this is a clever and also inevitable move by Dara and, uh, m- m- more generally by Uber.",
"start_ms": 6496010,
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{
"text": "I'll maybe just comment. I, I think this is a clever and also inevitable move by Dara and, uh, m- m- more generally by Uber.",
"start_ms": 6494590,
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},
{
"text": "And that's a million deliveries a day. I'll maybe just comment. I, I think this is a clever and also inevitable move by Dara and, uh, m- m- more generally by Uber.",
"start_ms": 6486930,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1506418": [
{
"text": "I, Dave, I'd love to just develop that i- idea a bit more because I, I think it's super important.",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_531948": [
{
"text": "Quote, uh, \"We care very deeply about AI safety.",
"start_ms": 571968,
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},
{
"text": "Model progress is now extremely rapid, and we always said we would take action if we felt that the model capabilities were outstripping the pace of safety and alignment.\" Quote, uh, \"We care very deeply about AI safety.",
"start_ms": 561088,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2079237": [
{
"text": "com- compaction, compaction is like the enemy of progress and civilization at this point.",
"start_ms": 2080388,
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},
{
"text": "I do agree that-... com- compaction, compaction is like the enemy of progress and civilization at this point.",
"start_ms": 2079237,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_865996": [
{
"text": "They totally ratified that.",
"start_ms": 866156,
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{
"text": "I think, Dave, you've made the point that there's not a single GPU that's not in full usage, right? They totally ratified that.",
"start_ms": 861316,
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},
{
"text": "Um, the depreciation, they, they're looking at ten years, not five years, because the chips are, all the older chips are being used. I think, Dave, you've made the point that there's not a single GPU that's not in full usage, right? They totally ratified that.",
"start_ms": 852676,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1776688": [
{
"text": "It, it's not an easy problem to figure out.",
"start_ms": 1776688,
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},
{
"text": "Um, you know, one thing that a lot of people can start thinking about is if I have five or 10,000 agents, all brilliant, working concurrently toward a goal, how do they work together? It, it's not an easy problem to figure out.",
"start_ms": 1765137,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7197978": [
{
"text": "I, I- Fully agree Yeah. Fully agree.",
"start_ms": 7193418,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. I, I- Fully agree Yeah. Fully agree.",
"start_ms": 7178318,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7471894": [
{
"text": "If AidoCell can predict which experiments will work instead of testing 10,000 compounds in a wet lab, you can simulate them digitally, again, in silico, and test only the top 10 that the simulator says is gonna work.",
"start_ms": 7471894,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4351122": [
{
"text": "And we heard Dario, uh, at the World Economic Forum talking about doubling the human lifespan in the next five to 10 years on the back of AI.",
"start_ms": 4341802,
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{
"text": "We're gonna solve all human disease. And we heard Dario, uh, at the World Economic Forum talking about doubling the human lifespan in the next five to 10 years on the back of AI.",
"start_ms": 4339982,
"lead_ms": 11140
},
{
"text": "Again, we, we heard, we heard this from Demis. We're gonna solve all human disease. And we heard Dario, uh, at the World Economic Forum talking about doubling the human lifespan in the next five to 10 years on the back of AI.",
"start_ms": 4337582,
"lead_ms": 13540
}
],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5603398": [
{
"text": "sequential files off of it.",
"start_ms": 5603438,
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},
{
"text": "It's absolutely- You know, it, it's the biggest joke in the world,'cause it's random access memory, but you're streaming-... sequential files off of it.",
"start_ms": 5597658,
"lead_ms": 7700
},
{
"text": "And so you're like, you know, HBM is a, is a Rube Goldberg mess. It's absolutely- You know, it, it's the biggest joke in the world,'cause it's random access memory, but you're streaming-... sequential files off of it.",
"start_ms": 5593478,
"lead_ms": 11880
}
],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1216306": [
{
"text": "So I, I, I really don't think like the, uh, A-AGI is achieved internally type way of doing business where there are internal capabilities that are vastly different from externally available capabilities.",
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}
],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3094970": [
{
"text": "So this isn't a surprise because ultimately, like, we as humans can have mind viruses, right?",
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{
"text": "And they can be prompted in certain ways. So this isn't a surprise because ultimately, like, we as humans can have mind viruses, right?",
"start_ms": 3097270,
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{
"text": "Well, I mean, the models wanna be helpful, right? And they can be prompted in certain ways. So this isn't a surprise because ultimately, like, we as humans can have mind viruses, right?",
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5716458": [
{
"text": "So lots of, lots of opportunity coming in this area, which is only gonna...",
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},
{
"text": "But you're literally looking at 100 to 1,000x performance gain if you etch the weights. So lots of, lots of opportunity coming in this area, which is only gonna...",
"start_ms": 5752018,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7682134": [
{
"text": "I don't want to, like, o- over-romanticize the personalized aspect.",
"start_ms": 7684334,
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{
"text": "Yes, but I, I, I, I also j- just on, on that-... I don't want to, like, o- over-romanticize the personalized aspect.",
"start_ms": 7682134,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1286966": [
{
"text": "But it's marketing.",
"start_ms": 1300206,
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{
"text": "I mean, y-yes, some of it is governance, and yes, some of it is for cyber vulnerabilities to appease Washington and g-given the, the recent hugging face gate, all, all of that. But it's marketing.",
"start_ms": 1290346,
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{
"text": "It's marketing. I mean, y-yes, some of it is governance, and yes, some of it is for cyber vulnerabilities to appease Washington and g-given the, the recent hugging face gate, all, all of that. But it's marketing.",
"start_ms": 1289326,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1165066": [
{
"text": "Uh, just on, on the issue of timing, I would distinguish between pre-training or pre-trained, wh-which is to say like raw m-model readiness versus thoroughly post-trained.",
"start_ms": 1171386,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1420026": [
{
"text": "But for cyber defense, the human is still stuck in the loop.",
"start_ms": 1431066,
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{
"text": "Like, and this is something very, uh, freaking out for lots of people because for, for cyberattacks, the human is not in the loop anymore. But for cyber defense, the human is still stuck in the loop.",
"start_ms": 1423166,
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{
"text": "I just-- I'm just reading between the lines. Like, and this is something very, uh, freaking out for lots of people because for, for cyberattacks, the human is not in the loop anymore. But for cyber defense, the human is still stuck in the loop.",
"start_ms": 1421226,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2818294": [
{
"text": "Uh, they're not out- So they're being trained in one single direction.",
"start_ms": 2815364,
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{
"text": "Like, you're breeding them into little chihuahuas that are very smart. Uh, they're not out- So they're being trained in one single direction.",
"start_ms": 2811494,
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{
"text": "What we're doing right now is we're battery farming the AIs, you know? Like, you're breeding them into little chihuahuas that are very smart. Uh, they're not out- So they're being trained in one single direction.",
"start_ms": 2808014,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5809498": [
{
"text": "Well, when you, when you kind of standardize that to, as we discussed earlier, these things are converging, then you can have a reasoner engine with world knowledge that is etched.",
"start_ms": 5816898,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5535702": [
{
"text": "Let me put a number on it.",
"start_ms": 5535702,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2877784": [
{
"text": "Right, right now we view them as sovereign AIs, so Saudi Arabia will have its AI and London, you know, England will have its.",
"start_ms": 2887614,
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{
"text": "But that's exactly the way he envisioned the future, where, you know, the different variants... Right, right now we view them as sovereign AIs, so Saudi Arabia will have its AI and London, you know, England will have its.",
"start_ms": 2883454,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3549278": [
{
"text": "Okay, I'm move, I'm moving us forward.",
"start_ms": 3549818,
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},
{
"text": "I Oh my God. Okay, I'm move, I'm moving us forward.",
"start_ms": 3544578,
"lead_ms": 6840
},
{
"text": "I, I'm trying. I Oh my God. Okay, I'm move, I'm moving us forward.",
"start_ms": 3543558,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4507250": [
{
"text": "And, and I think everybody listening should be super happy that, that, you know, Eric at, uh, l- heading Life Sciences and Dario have this mission.",
"start_ms": 4514970,
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{
"text": "Yeah. And, and I think everybody listening should be super happy that, that, you know, Eric at, uh, l- heading Life Sciences and Dario have this mission.",
"start_ms": 4511750,
"lead_ms": 15580
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{
"text": "Yeah. Yeah. And, and I think everybody listening should be super happy that, that, you know, Eric at, uh, l- heading Life Sciences and Dario have this mission.",
"start_ms": 4510490,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2697714": [
{
"text": "Do we end up in a heterogeneous future or a homogeneous future?",
"start_ms": 2704934,
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{
"text": "Or, or, I mean, I think this is, like, a profoundly interesting debate because it, it sort of speaks to are we going to end up in a singleton or not? Do we end up in a heterogeneous future or a homogeneous future?",
"start_ms": 2697714,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4096881": [
{
"text": "But it's not necessarily that you need to have the shareholding control.",
"start_ms": 4118801,
"lead_ms": 3701
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{
"text": "and kind of other things like that as well. But it's not necessarily that you need to have the shareholding control.",
"start_ms": 4116322,
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{
"text": "I mean, like Elon can tell you lots of stories about shareholder lawsuits-... and kind of other things like that as well. But it's not necessarily that you need to have the shareholding control.",
"start_ms": 4112841,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3294150": [
{
"text": "And I view this, uh, pretty optimistically as a laboratory for anthropology.",
"start_ms": 3310580,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5183662": [
{
"text": "So, uh, you know, the first story here is the stratospheric increase in memory prices.",
"start_ms": 5223282,
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{
"text": "Um, what we're seeing is a situation where in the agentic era, where your agent wants to remember everything about you, uh, we need to have more memory. So, uh, you know, the first story here is the stratospheric increase in memory prices.",
"start_ms": 5210942,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1721778": [
{
"text": "But I really wanted him to say it again because that was my-- You remember we had our Christmas hats on doing the, the-- just, like, what?",
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6215676": [
{
"text": "Uh, uh, Emad, one second.",
"start_ms": 6215676,
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{
"text": "But hold on. Uh, uh, Emad, one second.",
"start_ms": 6215676,
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{
"text": "Smash. But hold on. Uh, uh, Emad, one second.",
"start_ms": 6197246,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1540998": [
{
"text": "the, the past few days suggest there's actually a new way to revenue per token max, and that's not just focusing on code gen and enterprise use cases, but there's one thing maybe that's even more valuable on a revenue per token basis-...",
"start_ms": 1525498,
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{
"text": "Well, I, I think-... the, the past few days suggest there's actually a new way to revenue per token max, and that's not just focusing on code gen and enterprise use cases, but there's one thing maybe that's even more valuable on a revenue per token basis-...",
"start_ms": 1524238,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_5575938": [
{
"text": "You know, AI scales to infinity, demand scales to infinity.",
"start_ms": 5584378,
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{
"text": "So if they ramped up production in assumption that Nvidia would want more and Apple would want more, they would inevitably be over- overbuilt, and of course that's wrong. You know, AI scales to infinity, demand scales to infinity.",
"start_ms": 5575938,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2681934": [
{
"text": "One bad assumption will, will wipe out a monoculture-... of ideas.",
"start_ms": 2677454,
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{
"text": "Like, one disease will wipe out a total mo- monoculture. One bad assumption will, will wipe out a monoculture-... of ideas.",
"start_ms": 2674694,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3165250": [
{
"text": "And so if it, if it's convincing to one agent, it's convincing to all 5,000.",
"start_ms": 3191640,
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{
"text": "And, and the other agents just pick it up because they're the same exact DNA. And so if it, if it's convincing to one agent, it's convincing to all 5,000.",
"start_ms": 3187590,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6604930": [
{
"text": "fast food, car dealer.",
"start_ms": 6615530,
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},
{
"text": "is incredibly cool, just incredibly cool, is if you drive down any street in America, any suburban street, any urban street, it goes fast food, car dealer, fast food, car dealer-... fast food, car dealer.",
"start_ms": 6605720,
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{
"text": "Y- you know what I think-... is incredibly cool, just incredibly cool, is if you drive down any street in America, any suburban street, any urban street, it goes fast food, car dealer, fast food, car dealer-... fast food, car dealer.",
"start_ms": 6604930,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1652158": [
{
"text": "So our next story here, uh, I put a tweet up on the, on the screen here.",
"start_ms": 1656498,
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{
"text": "Yeah, we're gonna talk about that because the other constraint right now is memory, uh, but we'll get to that. So our next story here, uh, I put a tweet up on the, on the screen here.",
"start_ms": 1652158,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7263708": [
{
"text": "And the second thing that struck out to me was Raymond McCauley, who, who years ago said these mRNA vaccines, I think he would put it, it's the, it's the first battle in the last war against all disease.",
"start_ms": 7263738,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_743268": [
{
"text": "That, that presents well to Washington, which wants to see a different regulatory regime.",
"start_ms": 737368,
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{
"text": "We're so capable that we have to pause ourselves.\" That, that presents well to Washington, which wants to see a different regulatory regime.",
"start_ms": 734728,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4822330": [
{
"text": "That's good Yeah, yeah.",
"start_ms": 4815510,
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{
"text": "No, I, I don't remember that. That's good Yeah, yeah.",
"start_ms": 4812790,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3338150": [
{
"text": "And I'll, I'll to, to the extent that, what was it?",
"start_ms": 3335270,
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{
"text": "Uh, Rene Girard and Richard Dawkins should be, uh, uh, sh- should and/or should have been very excited by this. And I'll, I'll to, to the extent that, what was it?",
"start_ms": 3327450,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7160358": [
{
"text": "in the tumor and what isn't.",
"start_ms": 7160458,
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{
"text": "expressed-... in the tumor and what isn't.",
"start_ms": 7159727,
"lead_ms": 1751
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{
"text": "But in order to calibrate what the right expression profile is for the tumor, you also need a second mRNA sequencing profile from the bloodstream to know what's abnormally-... expressed-... in the tumor and what isn't.",
"start_ms": 7148938,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_986096": [
{
"text": "And there's a new Qwen mo- model with, with no guardrails whatsoever.",
"start_ms": 997836,
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{
"text": "And, you know, he, I think OpenAI wants to be prepared for whenever that event happens to say, \"Look, that's because the Chinese open weight models are un-guardrailed.\" And there's a new Qwen mo- model with, with no guardrails whatsoever.",
"start_ms": 988456,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7141598": [
{
"text": "Second point I just wanna highlight, there's, there's a technology underneath this that I think is going wildly underpublicized, which is the, the RNA sequencing technology that's enabling this to be personalized.",
"start_ms": 7128678,
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{
"text": "And so that, that's one point. Second point I just wanna highlight, there's, there's a technology underneath this that I think is going wildly underpublicized, which is the, the RNA sequencing technology that's enabling this to be personalized.",
"start_ms": 7127298,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6537970": [
{
"text": "Of course, China has had this now for at least a couple of years with the ubiquity of, uh, air-based drone delivery of food stuffs and, and other matters.",
"start_ms": 6527870,
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},
{
"text": "And I, I think this is a, th- this represents a serious move in the direction of aerial mobility. Of course, China has had this now for at least a couple of years with the ubiquity of, uh, air-based drone delivery of food stuffs and, and other matters.",
"start_ms": 6522270,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7178658": [
{
"text": "So I, I, you know, if asked the question, how does this all look- Like Grail.",
"start_ms": 7173478,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2527958": [
{
"text": "But we now have the ability to say, \"No, they're actually-- it's the same thought.",
"start_ms": 2556698,
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{
"text": "When historically, when you look at the raw parameters, you're like, \"Eh, I don't see anything going on in common here.\" But we now have the ability to say, \"No, they're actually-- it's the same thought.",
"start_ms": 2552098,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_2138858": [
{
"text": "We already have ways to take larger models and have them be in a, an end-to-end differentiable way constructed out of teams of specialists.",
"start_ms": 2127938,
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{
"text": "That's a specialized case, ironically, of sparsification. We already have ways to take larger models and have them be in a, an end-to-end differentiable way constructed out of teams of specialists.",
"start_ms": 2124318,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_7283738": [
{
"text": "Well, this one strikes to home, close to home for me'cause my daughter works at Moderna, and she's my go-to on, on...",
"start_ms": 7283738,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1577778": [
{
"text": "And and, and we-- you know, he said it, we talked about it for a minute and kind of glossed over it, but, like, is that really what they're preaching inside their internal company meetings?",
"start_ms": 1591938,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_3900116": [
{
"text": "I think there's a fig leaf element here.",
"start_ms": 3888386,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_6740118": [
{
"text": "Uh, do you think Zipline ends up being a, uh, a highly appetizing acquisition target for, say, a Shopify to in-house i- its delivery capabilities against Amazon? I think so too.",
"start_ms": 6720418,
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],
"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_1815118": [
{
"text": "Did you, did you see my response?",
"start_ms": 1811328,
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{
"text": "And, and Dave- Yeah, Dave, uh, you-- remember you, you te- you texted me, like, \"What should I do with my 5,000 agent experiment?\" Did you, did you see my response?",
"start_ms": 1803228,
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"openai_pauses_frontier_training_elon_s_100x_prediction_lands_4990090": [
{
"text": "Uh, it's just- it's gonna be- I'm gonna learn so much.",
"start_ms": 4986870,
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{
"text": "Yeah, I get tagged with investing, but I tell you, the, the attendee list at, at this is, like, the greatest visionaries. Uh, it's just- it's gonna be- I'm gonna learn so much.",
"start_ms": 4980150,
"lead_ms": 9940
},
{
"text": "Uh, Dave, uh, you're gonna be talking about AI investing. Yeah, I get tagged with investing, but I tell you, the, the attendee list at, at this is, like, the greatest visionaries. Uh, it's just- it's gonna be- I'm gonna learn so much.",
"start_ms": 4976450,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3285268": [
{
"text": "It's not GPUs, it's memory, especially in the agentic age.",
"start_ms": 3310268,
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{
"text": "So last week discussed how access to memory is becoming the real roadblock on all of this growth. It's not GPUs, it's memory, especially in the agentic age.",
"start_ms": 3304988,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7095538": [
{
"text": "Um, these are the numbers he used. You know?",
"start_ms": 7095538,
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{
"text": "We did a, an epic three-hour podcast with him, and, uh, we're on schedule to do a end-of-year prediction podcast with him again. Um, these are the numbers he used. You know?",
"start_ms": 7086598,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_36400": [
{
"text": "This week, uh, Waymo announced a significant redesign in cost savings.",
"start_ms": 36400,
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{
"text": "I'm gonna be curious if any of you have yet. This week, uh, Waymo announced a significant redesign in cost savings.",
"start_ms": 29210,
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{
"text": "Uh, so I implemented GrokBot. I'm gonna be curious if any of you have yet. This week, uh, Waymo announced a significant redesign in cost savings.",
"start_ms": 27300,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5724342": [
{
"text": "So this is a very difficult problem to solve, actually doubly enhanced by the interference that I'm absolutely clear is happening, and I'm with Alex on this one.",
"start_ms": 5727382,
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{
"text": "There's like this, this just doesn't aptly work. So this is a very difficult problem to solve, actually doubly enhanced by the interference that I'm absolutely clear is happening, and I'm with Alex on this one.",
"start_ms": 5724342,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5770832": [
{
"text": "He, he left to start a data center company a few years ago, and they're killing it.",
"start_ms": 5777822,
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{
"text": "He was the president of Link Studio for years. He, he left to start a data center company a few years ago, and they're killing it.",
"start_ms": 5775482,
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{
"text": "Uh, I don't know if you ever met Rob Fisher. He was the president of Link Studio for years. He, he left to start a data center company a few years ago, and they're killing it.",
"start_ms": 5773382,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2526488": [
{
"text": "Yeah I, I, I would disagree with Anthropic being the most advanced. Uh- Uh, OpenAI.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5392662": [
{
"text": "So a year ago, and then again this month, a year later, Heatmap News polled the Americans about data centers.",
"start_ms": 5417002,
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{
"text": "The first story is about public sentiment. So a year ago, and then again this month, a year later, Heatmap News polled the Americans about data centers.",
"start_ms": 5414712,
"lead_ms": 8870
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{
"text": "Uh, two stories on the data center debacle. The first story is about public sentiment. So a year ago, and then again this month, a year later, Heatmap News polled the Americans about data centers.",
"start_ms": 5411552,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_866608": [
{
"text": "I mean, everybody.",
"start_ms": 871608,
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{
"text": "And I think we're seeing a lot of the, uh, the labs beginning to vertically integrate. I mean, everybody.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_18220": [
{
"text": "So first it was OpenClaw, then there was Hermes, and now there's GrokBot.",
"start_ms": 18220,
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{
"text": "week to tell the world that he was wrong about the impact of advancing AI He now believes it will be something slower, more like a rising tide. So first it was OpenClaw, then there was Hermes, and now there's GrokBot.",
"start_ms": 2180,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2363448": [
{
"text": "That, that's a really important point, Amud.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2322208": [
{
"text": "Like, we've got 100,000 chips versus a million chips versus 10,000.",
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{
"text": "Like, I think there's relative levels of compute strain. Like, we've got 100,000 chips versus a million chips versus 10,000.",
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"text": "But Goo- Google's landing, like, three million TPUs this year. Like, I think there's relative levels of compute strain. Like, we've got 100,000 chips versus a million chips versus 10,000.",
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"text": "So I'm actually facing this from all the stuff I'm trying to do today.",
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"text": "So this is, this is, uh, it's gonna cause a huge problem because you can't have machines operating at machine speed and requiring a human approval on, on that. So I'm actually facing this from all the stuff I'm trying to do today.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5192572": [
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"text": "Like, I would say on this podcast just straight up, don't do a PhD.",
"start_ms": 5219672,
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"text": "And like I said, I can't imagine... Like, I would say on this podcast just straight up, don't do a PhD.",
"start_ms": 5218112,
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"text": "But at the same time, if you get in the right flow, then you can do more than you've ever done before. And like I said, I can't imagine... Like, I would say on this podcast just straight up, don't do a PhD.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6758464": [
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"text": "It will improve the Chinese way of life, just like the electrical revolution there for cars is, just like AI everywhere ubiquitously is.",
"start_ms": 6783054,
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"text": "I think that China will produce robots. It will improve the Chinese way of life, just like the electrical revolution there for cars is, just like AI everywhere ubiquitously is.",
"start_ms": 6780923,
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"text": "They've had a technological leap forward already. I think that China will produce robots. It will improve the Chinese way of life, just like the electrical revolution there for cars is, just like AI everywhere ubiquitously is.",
"start_ms": 6778134,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_47800": [
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"text": "Newsflash, Google, Waymo, Alphabet, uh, are switching over to using and OEMing Chinese hardware in order to achieve Waymo objectives.",
"start_ms": 47800,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5525062": [
{
"text": "My, my concern is that it's being overly politicized, in part through the worst case scenario, which would be foreign interference.",
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"text": "My fear is that this isn't because people think data centers are unsightly or, uh, unaesthetic. My, my concern is that it's being overly politicized, in part through the worst case scenario, which would be foreign interference.",
"start_ms": 5527822,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7754070": [
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"text": "The idea being get that capacity up and compete with TS- TSMC as a general purpose fab company.",
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"text": "So they're burning almost two billion a quarter on their fab business, and they're-- they just raised another twenty billion to build more fabs. The idea being get that capacity up and compete with TS- TSMC as a general purpose fab company.",
"start_ms": 7784490,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2309448": [
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"text": "and as a result- Yeah Yeah But critically, Google has other consumers fighting for their own compute internally besides AI.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4043972": [
{
"text": "Like, Fable scores 60 on the artificial analysis benchmark.",
"start_ms": 4045921,
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{
"text": "Well, I mean, I don't think it's a few pennies, right? Like, Fable scores 60 on the artificial analysis benchmark.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6913094": [
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"text": "Moonshots conference, you know, Future Vision X Prize, things like that.",
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"text": "And the question is, again, how do you articulate great visions of the future? Moonshots conference, you know, Future Vision X Prize, things like that.",
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"text": "I think that's the big differential here. And the question is, again, how do you articulate great visions of the future? Moonshots conference, you know, Future Vision X Prize, things like that.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4060832": [
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"text": "and be on the frontier at the same time.\" Yeah. Yeah.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6887214": [
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"text": "Yeah, but I mean, u- ultimately this is an abundant technology. Let's face it.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7313374": [
{
"text": "Where is all the federal land? Exactly.",
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{
"text": "A- any, any takers? Where is all the federal land? Exactly.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_959858": [
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"text": "And like, as, you know, as Alex said, sometimes he says two things at once.",
"start_ms": 964288,
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"text": "there wasn't a diffusion of innovation there, because otherwise companies would fall apart. And like, as, you know, as Alex said, sometimes he says two things at once.",
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"text": "Like, it's a good thing-... there wasn't a diffusion of innovation there, because otherwise companies would fall apart. And like, as, you know, as Alex said, sometimes he says two things at once.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4003352": [
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"text": "Yeah, no, everybody needs the absolute best AI they can get.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5441972": [
{
"text": "Data centers are at 627 million gallons per day.",
"start_ms": 5471702,
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{
"text": "So here are the numbers. Data centers are at 627 million gallons per day.",
"start_ms": 5470102,
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},
{
"text": "Um, and the post on water center, on the water data use, um, the data center water use, uh, it was pretty damning. So here are the numbers. Data centers are at 627 million gallons per day.",
"start_ms": 5461302,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6113122": [
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"text": "Newsflash, Google, Waymo, Alphabet, uh, are switching over to using and OEMing Chinese hardware in order to achieve Waymo objectives.",
"start_ms": 6129222,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3595998": [
{
"text": "That's what they should do, and they should stay private like Stripe.",
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{
"text": "If you are in the late stages of AGI now, Anthropic should do a giant fricking raise, like OpenAI did, of 120 billion, and have a straight shot at AGI. That's what they should do, and they should stay private like Stripe.",
"start_ms": 3586028,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3718788": [
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"text": "And the board members, like look at the board members at Anthropic.",
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"text": "Like, he's just gonna reinforce Alex's, you know, Karp's mes-message horrifically. And the board members, like look at the board members at Anthropic.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7718750": [
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"text": "I think honestly, the AI labs, uh, from, you know, the work that Demis Hassabis is doing and Dario is doing, uh, are working on this.",
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"text": "We're looking for places that are stuck to launch XPRIZES with a clear objective function, the first person to do this. I think honestly, the AI labs, uh, from, you know, the work that Demis Hassabis is doing and Dario is doing, uh, are working on this.",
"start_ms": 7727970,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1356686": [
{
"text": "Yeah I think they're gonna do it all I think they're gonna do it all, and Alex, you, you called out a number there I was about to reference it as well.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3548128": [
{
"text": "Like, as a corporation, you cannot leave your data on a Anthropic site, and they realize this, but Anthropic should not IPO.",
"start_ms": 3577668,
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{
"text": "On the Fable uptake, it's entirely a ze- uh, zero data retention issue. Like, as a corporation, you cannot leave your data on a Anthropic site, and they realize this, but Anthropic should not IPO.",
"start_ms": 3571748,
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{
"text": "That's how fast they innovate. On the Fable uptake, it's entirely a ze- uh, zero data retention issue. Like, as a corporation, you cannot leave your data on a Anthropic site, and they realize this, but Anthropic should not IPO.",
"start_ms": 3569948,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2673436": [
{
"text": "These frontier labs are facing the innovator's dilemma from hell, right?",
"start_ms": 2688696,
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{
"text": "I, I have a, I have a hot take. These frontier labs are facing the innovator's dilemma from hell, right?",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7908310": [
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"text": "And then I think that I cr- completely agree with, with Demis Hassabis.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_831048": [
{
"text": "If Sam or OpenAI want to move much more quickly, they should be much more vertically integrated so that they can move layers.",
"start_ms": 832588,
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{
"text": "and things can go much more quickly. If Sam or OpenAI want to move much more quickly, they should be much more vertically integrated so that they can move layers.",
"start_ms": 831268,
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{
"text": "You do that-... and things can go much more quickly. If Sam or OpenAI want to move much more quickly, they should be much more vertically integrated so that they can move layers.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7484994": [
{
"text": "I mean, if you look at this, uh, it is almost a duplicate of Falcon 9.",
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"text": "Let's take a look at this video'cause it's very telling. I mean, if you look at this, uh, it is almost a duplicate of Falcon 9.",
"start_ms": 7498854,
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{
"text": "a viral post on X, uh, that shows Chinese reusable rockets that are basically a Xerox copy of, uh, of, uh, Falcon 9. Let's take a look at this video'cause it's very telling. I mean, if you look at this, uh, it is almost a duplicate of Falcon 9.",
"start_ms": 7488514,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1212496": [
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"text": "Maybe I'd generalize further, uh, on the sci-fi front.",
"start_ms": 1213736,
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{
"text": "I think it's a fascinating point, Dave. Maybe I'd generalize further, uh, on the sci-fi front.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1383056": [
{
"text": "So GrokBot launched on August 11th, uh, in an early beta.",
"start_ms": 1389836,
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{
"text": "So first it was OpenClaw, then there was Hermes, and now there's GrokBot from SpaceX AI. So GrokBot launched on August 11th, uh, in an early beta.",
"start_ms": 1384176,
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{
"text": "uh, let's talk about GrokBot. So first it was OpenClaw, then there was Hermes, and now there's GrokBot from SpaceX AI. So GrokBot launched on August 11th, uh, in an early beta.",
"start_ms": 1383066,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3664068": [
{
"text": "Like Dario, uh, got ripped by Alex Karp.",
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{
"text": "Uh, uh, Salim is right, but it's much more specific than that. Like Dario, uh, got ripped by Alex Karp.",
"start_ms": 3674478,
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{
"text": "They, they-- Before we get to that, there's a... Uh, uh, Salim is right, but it's much more specific than that. Like Dario, uh, got ripped by Alex Karp.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5320012": [
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"text": "I was speaking, I was speaking a few days ago to a, a government-funded AI for a physics center filled with PhDs, uh, current PhDs and recent PhDs in physics, and I, I leveled with them.",
"start_ms": 5320042,
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"text": "I agree. I was speaking, I was speaking a few days ago to a, a government-funded AI for a physics center filled with PhDs, uh, current PhDs and recent PhDs in physics, and I, I leveled with them.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7617634": [
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"text": "Uh, y- you're-- you've learned that intelligence does not guarantee you epistemic awareness You have smart human beings can believe really, really stupid things.",
"start_ms": 7640714,
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{
"text": "Um, yeah, you know, this goes to what we talked about earlier, right? Uh, y- you're-- you've learned that intelligence does not guarantee you epistemic awareness You have smart human beings can believe really, really stupid things.",
"start_ms": 7635934,
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{
"text": "Oh, w- wow. Um, yeah, you know, this goes to what we talked about earlier, right? Uh, y- you're-- you've learned that intelligence does not guarantee you epistemic awareness You have smart human beings can believe really, really stupid things.",
"start_ms": 7634794,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3091646": [
{
"text": "So you're like, \"Forget it.",
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"text": "And, and, you know, all these mega companies, like the-- a big one like NVIDIA, is always gonna get a second look, which is usually sixty, ninety days. So you're like, \"Forget it.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6528930": [
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"text": "So this is so great because autonomous response is so much more interesting than remote control in this context with this type of use case.",
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"text": "This is compressing time, response time where time equals lives. So this is so great because autonomous response is so much more interesting than remote control in this context with this type of use case.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2116328": [
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"text": "And I think those two pressures from the desire to embed Gemini inside Google search have optimized through, you know, competitive internal pressures for probably scarce compute.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1831488": [
{
"text": "It'll change again as people become more used to it, and they see what-- how the hell it's operating.",
"start_ms": 1847588,
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{
"text": "And what Elon's done with this layer is made AI agents usable to a big set of people. It'll change again as people become more used to it, and they see what-- how the hell it's operating.",
"start_ms": 1840988,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2295758": [
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"text": "So what makes-- I mean, Google's got more compute than anybody at this point.",
"start_ms": 2302608,
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{
"text": "company that's got enough compute. So what makes-- I mean, Google's got more compute than anybody at this point.",
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{
"text": "There is no-... company that's got enough compute. So what makes-- I mean, Google's got more compute than anybody at this point.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1461776": [
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"text": "You know, Peter, we have that staff on demand attribute in EXL, right?",
"start_ms": 1469656,
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{
"text": "And so now you have this completely new category. You know, Peter, we have that staff on demand attribute in EXL, right?",
"start_ms": 1466366,
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{
"text": "And so persistent autonomous agent is like, it's like a new form of labor. And so now you have this completely new category. You know, Peter, we have that staff on demand attribute in EXL, right?",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6360610": [
{
"text": "This could actually happen a lot quicker.\"",
"start_ms": 6358730,
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{
"text": "And so I was like, \"Oh, crap. This could actually happen a lot quicker.\"",
"start_ms": 6357430,
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{
"text": "I'm like, that's like $6,000 with the actuators and everything. And so I was like, \"Oh, crap. This could actually happen a lot quicker.\"",
"start_ms": 6353570,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_904898": [
{
"text": "Now you don't look at the code anymore.",
"start_ms": 920628,
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},
{
"text": "Then it was okay. Now you don't look at the code anymore.",
"start_ms": 919308,
"lead_ms": 3640
},
{
"text": "The code they were writing was garbage a year ago, relatively speaking. Then it was okay. Now you don't look at the code anymore.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7823750": [
{
"text": "So number three: Can you guys talk about dentistry?",
"start_ms": 7823930,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. So number three: Can you guys talk about dentistry?",
"start_ms": 7823750,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6307350": [
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"text": "Like, you don't need to retrofit all these cars because you think about a humanoid robot that's walking around in the real world versus one that sits in a cockpit driving a car.",
"start_ms": 6341130,
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{
"text": "You know? Like, you don't need to retrofit all these cars because you think about a humanoid robot that's walking around in the real world versus one that sits in a cockpit driving a car.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4802412": [
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"text": "So according to the Wall Street Journal, increased productivity from AI agents is creating more work for humans, not less.",
"start_ms": 4820912,
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{
"text": "I, I joke people are talking about a three- and four-day workweek, and I've discovered a nine- and ten-day workweek. So according to the Wall Street Journal, increased productivity from AI agents is creating more work for humans, not less.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4937821": [
{
"text": "It's requiring a whole new threshold of escalation thresholds, governance, et cetera, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 4946332,
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{
"text": "But we're, you know, this is something we're actually seeing live as we do that pilot program where we work a bunch of companies through this process. It's requiring a whole new threshold of escalation thresholds, governance, et cetera, et cetera.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5500882": [
{
"text": "I would promise, you know, we're gonna put education programs in the schools.",
"start_ms": 5502522,
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"text": "If I were a hyperscaler building a data center, uh, I would do this very different. I would promise, you know, we're gonna put education programs in the schools.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_416016": [
{
"text": "But there's a tendency to say, \"Well, look, exponential change is gonna be with us forever.",
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{
"text": "You know, Alex's innermost loop, uh, daily feed is, is trying to do exactly that, every, every relevant event. But there's a tendency to say, \"Well, look, exponential change is gonna be with us forever.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_717968": [
{
"text": "So superficial layer, I agree.",
"start_ms": 732308,
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{
"text": "It's an interval in time that we're in the middle of. So superficial layer, I agree.",
"start_ms": 730148,
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{
"text": "More broadly, I've made the point on this pod and otherwise that singularity as a step function is just totally nonsensical. It's an interval in time that we're in the middle of. So superficial layer, I agree.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1442696": [
{
"text": "I think that the interface and the ease of use is fast, is amazing.",
"start_ms": 1447436,
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},
{
"text": "Um- Uh, I, I, I love it. I think that the interface and the ease of use is fast, is amazing.",
"start_ms": 1444696,
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},
{
"text": "I've been playing quite extensively with it. Um- Uh, I, I, I love it. I think that the interface and the ease of use is fast, is amazing.",
"start_ms": 1442696,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1763996": [
{
"text": "I love the way he says it presents, like, as if it presents like an illness.",
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{
"text": "This is a, like, an UI that's temporary. I love the way he says it presents, like, as if it presents like an illness.",
"start_ms": 1767576,
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{
"text": "Um, I think it's a t- I agree with Alex on the interface comment. This is a, like, an UI that's temporary. I love the way he says it presents, like, as if it presents like an illness.",
"start_ms": 1763996,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2218708": [
{
"text": "But, you know, has the Gemini app advanced at all?",
"start_ms": 2220548,
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},
{
"text": "It has Gemini as a captive thing. But, you know, has the Gemini app advanced at all?",
"start_ms": 2218708,
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{
"text": "It has the links of what people search for. It has Gemini as a captive thing. But, you know, has the Gemini app advanced at all?",
"start_ms": 2215828,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2488148": [
{
"text": "reliant on Elon for the compute.",
"start_ms": 2485888,
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{
"text": "But they're totally-... reliant on Elon for the compute.",
"start_ms": 2484708,
"lead_ms": 3440
},
{
"text": "I wanna be there on that day. But they're totally-... reliant on Elon for the compute.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3751128": [
{
"text": "I think it's, it's suggestive as, as I've suggested in the past, Ship of Theseus style.",
"start_ms": 3788968,
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"text": "We've known about Kimi Linear attention since last fall. I think it's, it's suggestive as, as I've suggested in the past, Ship of Theseus style.",
"start_ms": 3785648,
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{
"text": "But, uh, to the earlier points, uh, in lightning round succession, Kimi Linear. We've known about Kimi Linear attention since last fall. I think it's, it's suggestive as, as I've suggested in the past, Ship of Theseus style.",
"start_ms": 3780748,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1493996": [
{
"text": "So I'm really testing it out.",
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{
"text": "And I've given them control via Tailscale of a MacBook M4 Max, a 5090, and a range of other computers as well, plus all my subscriptions. So I'm really testing it out.",
"start_ms": 1503396,
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"text": "I've got, um, 18 Grokbots working under the Swarm. And I've given them control via Tailscale of a MacBook M4 Max, a 5090, and a range of other computers as well, plus all my subscriptions. So I'm really testing it out.",
"start_ms": 1498636,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3067825": [
{
"text": "Uh, and, and things tend to move quickly and easily.",
"start_ms": 3081596,
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{
"text": "So the, the FTC is very, very friendly to acquisitions right now. Uh, and, and things tend to move quickly and easily.",
"start_ms": 3077636,
"lead_ms": 6980
},
{
"text": "Um, so here's the, here's the constraint. So the, the FTC is very, very friendly to acquisitions right now. Uh, and, and things tend to move quickly and easily.",
"start_ms": 3075156,
"lead_ms": 9460
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6929718": [
{
"text": "And China might actually be able to pull that off.",
"start_ms": 6936718,
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{
"text": "There's- But- I think if you look at the future of China and some Chinese that I've spoken to, it's that robots do all the work, and we have really good lives, you know? And China might actually be able to pull that off.",
"start_ms": 6921158,
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{
"text": "to the benefits of this side of things. There's- But- I think if you look at the future of China and some Chinese that I've spoken to, it's that robots do all the work, and we have really good lives, you know? And China might actually be able to pull that off.",
"start_ms": 6918818,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7865590": [
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"text": "Again, it's blocking a particular, I think, uh, protein, protein pathway that is normally associated with blocking, so it's a double blocker, uh, blocking the blocker for tooth regrowth.",
"start_ms": 7883790,
"lead_ms": 11800
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{
"text": "And I don't think there's that much AI involved with it. Again, it's blocking a particular, I think, uh, protein, protein pathway that is normally associated with blocking, so it's a double blocker, uh, blocking the blocker for tooth regrowth.",
"start_ms": 7880830,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5133132": [
{
"text": "No, I, I mean, like, the amount of leverage you can do per unit of your attention now is more than it has ever been, and I think as Alex said, it probably ever will be.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6867344": [
{
"text": "Is that-- Alvin explicitly talked about that too.",
"start_ms": 6879374,
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{
"text": "And that skews the voters tremendously. Is that-- Alvin explicitly talked about that too.",
"start_ms": 6877174,
"lead_ms": 4920
},
{
"text": "We're just like, \"No, no, let's show the run over cat.\" And that skews the voters tremendously. Is that-- Alvin explicitly talked about that too.",
"start_ms": 6874434,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_679216": [
{
"text": "As-- The word I think Alex uses is co-scaling, right?",
"start_ms": 688506,
"lead_ms": 3010
},
{
"text": "This is one of the worst, and I think the big work now is how do we accelerate institutional acceleration and institutional development? As-- The word I think Alex uses is co-scaling, right?",
"start_ms": 680956,
"lead_ms": 10560
},
{
"text": "And so we're- We, lots of places need it bad. This is one of the worst, and I think the big work now is how do we accelerate institutional acceleration and institutional development? As-- The word I think Alex uses is co-scaling, right?",
"start_ms": 677296,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_700506": [
{
"text": "So for me, the, the singularity is not when machine become, uh, becomes infinitely capable.",
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2723936": [
{
"text": "I mean, the abundance take on this is we as the consumers and the users are the beneficiary.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4285312": [
{
"text": "So- So two or three things.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6469720": [
{
"text": "So these autonomous rescue drones can fly at thirty miles per hour, uh, covering, you know, up to, uh, almost two miles, landing on water, providing flotation for two eighty-kilogram adults.",
"start_ms": 6486070,
"lead_ms": 12220
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6391790": [
{
"text": "He said, you know, uh, the use case for, for these in the military right now is getting into Jeeps or getting into, uh, nuclear silos and replacing the humans and sitting at the desk and not changing out the interface hardware.",
"start_ms": 6398530,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5676982": [
{
"text": "So we have a problem where our information systems reward compelling narratives over evidence, and this data center thing is the heart of that, and it's a problem that's been building up over decades with the use of social media.",
"start_ms": 5676982,
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},
{
"text": "Okay. So we have a problem where our information systems reward compelling narratives over evidence, and this data center thing is the heart of that, and it's a problem that's been building up over decades with the use of social media.",
"start_ms": 5675122,
"lead_ms": 15920
},
{
"text": "Can I? Okay. So we have a problem where our information systems reward compelling narratives over evidence, and this data center thing is the heart of that, and it's a problem that's been building up over decades with the use of social media.",
"start_ms": 5673082,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6216870": [
{
"text": "Never launched because Tesla hit autonomy instead, and below some threshold in car price, maybe it doesn't make sense to, to sell cheaper cars.",
"start_ms": 6220850,
"lead_ms": 8120
},
{
"text": "that was going to be the highly vaunted $25,000 vehicle. Never launched because Tesla hit autonomy instead, and below some threshold in car price, maybe it doesn't make sense to, to sell cheaper cars.",
"start_ms": 6216880,
"lead_ms": 12090
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_659456": [
{
"text": "You know, Stewart Brand had that concept of pace layers, where technology moves at one layer, like an ocean current at the top is very kind of swift, but way down in the ocean, uh, regulatory government changes very slow-slowly.",
"start_ms": 646216,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6166022": [
{
"text": "It's OEMing Chinese hardware at the hardware layer.",
"start_ms": 6168782,
"lead_ms": 3620
},
{
"text": "Waymo is, is getting its own chips. It's OEMing Chinese hardware at the hardware layer.",
"start_ms": 6166022,
"lead_ms": 6380
},
{
"text": "Waymo is-- Maybe Waymo wants its own space station at this point. Waymo is, is getting its own chips. It's OEMing Chinese hardware at the hardware layer.",
"start_ms": 6161742,
"lead_ms": 10660
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_8012360": [
{
"text": "Uh, if, if anything, I think ultimately, the self-licking ice cream cone of recursive self-improvement can only get us so far in terms of revenue per token maxing.",
"start_ms": 8027150,
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},
{
"text": "No, not worried. Uh, if, if anything, I think ultimately, the self-licking ice cream cone of recursive self-improvement can only get us so far in terms of revenue per token maxing.",
"start_ms": 8025270,
"lead_ms": 11960
},
{
"text": "This is from Brian Silver, 9652. No, not worried. Uh, if, if anything, I think ultimately, the self-licking ice cream cone of recursive self-improvement can only get us so far in terms of revenue per token maxing.",
"start_ms": 8021730,
"lead_ms": 15500
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_340280": [
{
"text": "Uh, let's begin. A quick summary.",
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},
{
"text": "Today we're gonna cover about a dozen stories that have been breaking. Uh, let's begin. A quick summary.",
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1544936": [
{
"text": "Um, but it is genuinely useful, and I think one of the more powerful things, like I said, is you can actually...",
"start_ms": 1557236,
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},
{
"text": "I don't know. Um, but it is genuinely useful, and I think one of the more powerful things, like I said, is you can actually...",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2391368": [
{
"text": "I'm gonna go tell my boss,'You know what?",
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{
"text": "Like, you would have to be, \"I'm the most well-funded top AI engineer in the world and the Chinese just kicked my ass. I'm gonna go tell my boss,'You know what?",
"start_ms": 2401578,
"lead_ms": 8290
},
{
"text": "Yeah Well, and then, then think about it from the person's career point of view, like the ego blow. Like, you would have to be, \"I'm the most well-funded top AI engineer in the world and the Chinese just kicked my ass. I'm gonna go tell my boss,'You know what?",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2576996": [
{
"text": "They had the, the 120 billion round, so they can burn a few years of market capture.",
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},
{
"text": "They have more capital raised than Anthropic. They had the, the 120 billion round, so they can burn a few years of market capture.",
"start_ms": 2588356,
"lead_ms": 6480
},
{
"text": "And OpenAI, again, have lined up the compute. They have more capital raised than Anthropic. They had the, the 120 billion round, so they can burn a few years of market capture.",
"start_ms": 2585436,
"lead_ms": 9400
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3191736": [
{
"text": "Actually, thinking about our discussion earlier, you have a split of innovation versus execution, and so these are the two model splits that are occurring.",
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},
{
"text": "I, I think that you've got... Actually, thinking about our discussion earlier, you have a split of innovation versus execution, and so these are the two model splits that are occurring.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4216292": [
{
"text": "That's the entire product.",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, you fill out a values questionnaire, and then every Wednesday at 7:00 PM, a text arrives with a match, as well as a place and a time for you to meet your date. That's the entire product.",
"start_ms": 4230312,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4299932": [
{
"text": "By the way, let's note as a scarcity to abundance paradigm, when we were all growing up, sex had a scarcity paradigm.",
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4872582": [
{
"text": "would reduce workflow, and in- in fact, it increased the amount of work that is worth attempting.",
"start_ms": 4872612,
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},
{
"text": "We thought AI-... would reduce workflow, and in- in fact, it increased the amount of work that is worth attempting.",
"start_ms": 4871952,
"lead_ms": 7300
},
{
"text": "This is Jevons paradox for human cognition, right? We thought AI-... would reduce workflow, and in- in fact, it increased the amount of work that is worth attempting.",
"start_ms": 4869272,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5257812": [
{
"text": "Like, okay, so you're pulling the, you're pulling the vertical mobility ladder up behind you, and it's fine to tell everyone else who's just coming up, \"Uh, don't bother with higher education.",
"start_ms": 5264972,
"lead_ms": 9480
},
{
"text": "MIT, Harvard, and, and so on. Like, okay, so you're pulling the, you're pulling the vertical mobility ladder up behind you, and it's fine to tell everyone else who's just coming up, \"Uh, don't bother with higher education.",
"start_ms": 5262992,
"lead_ms": 11460
},
{
"text": "Peter, you went where? MIT, Harvard, and, and so on. Like, okay, so you're pulling the, you're pulling the vertical mobility ladder up behind you, and it's fine to tell everyone else who's just coming up, \"Uh, don't bother with higher education.",
"start_ms": 5261872,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5296752": [
{
"text": "I, I feel sorry for...",
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"lead_ms": 1080
},
{
"text": "Especially, like... I, I feel sorry for...",
"start_ms": 5302992,
"lead_ms": 1940
},
{
"text": "PhDs, though, I don't get, you know. Especially, like... I, I feel sorry for...",
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"lead_ms": 4000
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5565562": [
{
"text": "You know, you can countervail that.",
"start_ms": 5570602,
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},
{
"text": "But, um, why isn't the... You know, you can countervail that.",
"start_ms": 5567182,
"lead_ms": 4960
},
{
"text": "A- agreed, Alex. But, um, why isn't the... You know, you can countervail that.",
"start_ms": 5566142,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2551656": [
{
"text": "But, but, you know, the, the argument there is that, well, inside Anthropic, they have Mythos 2 now, so they're another level ahead and they won't release it to us.",
"start_ms": 2560766,
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},
{
"text": "Everybody over here is like, \"God, this Fable has lost its mind.\" But, but, you know, the, the argument there is that, well, inside Anthropic, they have Mythos 2 now, so they're another level ahead and they won't release it to us.",
"start_ms": 2557836,
"lead_ms": 11500
},
{
"text": "over to Sol actually. Everybody over here is like, \"God, this Fable has lost its mind.\" But, but, you know, the, the argument there is that, well, inside Anthropic, they have Mythos 2 now, so they're another level ahead and they won't release it to us.",
"start_ms": 2556836,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2160888": [
{
"text": "They literally have millions of chips.",
"start_ms": 2203228,
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},
{
"text": "And you can't excuse them of not having enough compute or it being a scarce resource. They literally have millions of chips.",
"start_ms": 2199128,
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},
{
"text": "This is kind of a key thing. And you can't excuse them of not having enough compute or it being a scarce resource. They literally have millions of chips.",
"start_ms": 2197628,
"lead_ms": 8180
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1117556": [
{
"text": "there, there are all sorts of m- metaphors that one can reach for.",
"start_ms": 1124026,
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},
{
"text": "I was gonna make some stupid joke about, uh, reflections happening at impedance mismatches, but I, I, I, I think more seriously-... there, there are all sorts of m- metaphors that one can reach for.",
"start_ms": 1117556,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5788702": [
{
"text": "And they said, \"Oh, you know what?",
"start_ms": 5799782,
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},
{
"text": "using waste heat, you know, running off nuclear power, mostly from Seabrook, New Hampshire, and it captures more carbon than the entire loop produces. And they said, \"Oh, you know what?",
"start_ms": 5791982,
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},
{
"text": "So, you know, it, it's like it's doing its own carbon capture-... using waste heat, you know, running off nuclear power, mostly from Seabrook, New Hampshire, and it captures more carbon than the entire loop produces. And they said, \"Oh, you know what?",
"start_ms": 5789562,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2001608": [
{
"text": "So the benchmark itself, this is a benchmark for agents' ability to perform quant analysis on real world spreadsheets and docs. But wait for it.",
"start_ms": 2016268,
"lead_ms": 10600
},
{
"text": "So you have to look at the benchmark itself. So the benchmark itself, this is a benchmark for agents' ability to perform quant analysis on real world spreadsheets and docs. But wait for it.",
"start_ms": 2013948,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4853592": [
{
"text": "So, uh, the work is not disappearing, it's changing character from execution to judgment.",
"start_ms": 4860912,
"lead_ms": 5600
},
{
"text": "Uh, more intelligence produces more output, which requires more human direction, which produces more value, which requires more work. So, uh, the work is not disappearing, it's changing character from execution to judgment.",
"start_ms": 4853592,
"lead_ms": 12920
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3861948": [
{
"text": "It's not clever or wealthy or successful enough on average to know how to use Fable-5 on average properly, just like consumers didn't know how to use reasoning tokens from OpenAI, and as a result, OpenAI had to pivot.",
"start_ms": 3877968,
"lead_ms": 15140
},
{
"text": "Our economy isn't worthy. It's not clever or wealthy or successful enough on average to know how to use Fable-5 on average properly, just like consumers didn't know how to use reasoning tokens from OpenAI, and as a result, OpenAI had to pivot.",
"start_ms": 3875468,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4388156": [
{
"text": "I, I, I think there was a Black Mirror episode where, you know, for dating, you just sent your digital twins, and then they did a bunch of dates just to test it out in, like, two milliseconds, so you could tell whether or not you matched.",
"start_ms": 4388436,
"lead_ms": 11260
},
{
"text": "Yeah. I, I, I think there was a Black Mirror episode where, you know, for dating, you just sent your digital twins, and then they did a bunch of dates just to test it out in, like, two milliseconds, so you could tell whether or not you matched.",
"start_ms": 4388156,
"lead_ms": 11540
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3955808": [
{
"text": "Yeah, sure, it's painful.",
"start_ms": 3959068,
"lead_ms": 1740
},
{
"text": "So I, I think this is just another step to externalizing the hosting of their model. Yeah, sure, it's painful.",
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"lead_ms": 7820
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5228252": [
{
"text": "Like, what will you get out of it right now?",
"start_ms": 5233952,
"lead_ms": 2000
},
{
"text": "I would say not even do a college degree. Like, what will you get out of it right now?",
"start_ms": 5231392,
"lead_ms": 4560
},
{
"text": "Not to... I would say not even do a college degree. Like, what will you get out of it right now?",
"start_ms": 5230252,
"lead_ms": 5700
}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1858208": [
{
"text": "Uh, by the way, I invited Alex Finn to come back to the Abundance Summit in March, uh, since he's been doing a lot of amazing, you know, Grok Bot videos.",
"start_ms": 1864828,
"lead_ms": 6660
},
{
"text": "I just-- you know, kudos to Elon and the Cursor team for making this happen. Uh, by the way, I invited Alex Finn to come back to the Abundance Summit in March, uh, since he's been doing a lot of amazing, you know, Grok Bot videos.",
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"text": "Yeah, I, I agree. I just-- you know, kudos to Elon and the Cursor team for making this happen. Uh, by the way, I invited Alex Finn to come back to the Abundance Summit in March, uh, since he's been doing a lot of amazing, you know, Grok Bot videos.",
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"text": "You know, the, the hiring cycle is too slow.",
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"text": "But I got calls from both MerCore and from Oren, our good buddy Kush Pavaria, who was on the pod a week ago, uh, looking for acquisition targets to accelerate. You know, the, the hiring cycle is too slow.",
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"text": "Many have tried to linearize the infamously quadratic attention mechanism.",
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"text": "It's interesting insofar as it's a successful linear architecture. Many have tried to linearize the infamously quadratic attention mechanism.",
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{
"text": "Transformer architecture is getting incrementally replaced piece by piece. It's interesting insofar as it's a successful linear architecture. Many have tried to linearize the infamously quadratic attention mechanism.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4371756": [
{
"text": "I'm in decision fatigue.",
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{
"text": "I don't wanna... I'm in decision fatigue.",
"start_ms": 4380956,
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{
"text": "It's just like, like, \"Please just buy me the stuff I need. I don't wanna... I'm in decision fatigue.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5043712": [
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"text": "So I'm still savoring it.",
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{
"text": "So yeah, work your ass off right now because it may be the last chance that you have to actually be extremely valuable. So I'm still savoring it.",
"start_ms": 5050392,
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{
"text": "You know, sorry, you know, don't need you anymore.\" So yeah, work your ass off right now because it may be the last chance that you have to actually be extremely valuable. So I'm still savoring it.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6250130": [
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"text": "But if you look at the largest companies in, in history, you know, you'd have ExxonMobil doing oil.",
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"text": "It's something that's a by-product of the singularity that I don't think I fully grasped until now that we're living it. But if you look at the largest companies in, in history, you know, you'd have ExxonMobil doing oil.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_563656": [
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"text": "I'm grateful for it, but I think it means we've all been too ambitious on timelines, even with this incredible technology.",
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"text": "I think that's actually a positive in many ways, and it's gonna make this big transition in front of us go smoother and slower. I'm grateful for it, but I think it means we've all been too ambitious on timelines, even with this incredible technology.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2597826": [
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"text": "Um, they're shooting themselves in their foot from an institutional perspective because Opus 5 is unpleasant.",
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"text": "And I think Anthropic, for all of their talent and their access to GPUs, actually Google just built them a gigantic TPU, like million deployment. Um, they're shooting themselves in their foot from an institutional perspective because Opus 5 is unpleasant.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7551454": [
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"text": "Well, E- Elon has had a policy, pretty public one, of n- not going after other companies for patents in cases where SpaceX or Tesla have vast patent portfolios.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7663430": [
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"text": "Look at the benefit of, uh, on, on, uh, X of people cr- uh, checking with Grok whether something's real or not.",
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{
"text": "But it also gives us a defensive capability because we can cross-check this. Look at the benefit of, uh, on, on, uh, X of people cr- uh, checking with Grok whether something's real or not.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3632608": [
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"text": "So I've been talking, I've been talking to investors, and Dave, this will be interesting for your perspective.",
"start_ms": 3632608,
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{
"text": "They need the capital to get compute. So I've been talking, I've been talking to investors, and Dave, this will be interesting for your perspective.",
"start_ms": 3624568,
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{
"text": "I have an answer. They need the capital to get compute. So I've been talking, I've been talking to investors, and Dave, this will be interesting for your perspective.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1610676": [
{
"text": "Are, are people being productive?",
"start_ms": 1646416,
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{
"text": "It's getting really confusing. Are, are people being productive?",
"start_ms": 1645196,
"lead_ms": 2620
},
{
"text": "I don't know. It's getting really confusing. Are, are people being productive?",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1662716": [
{
"text": "this is what I mean by the organizational singularity,'cause the company starts to look less than, less like an org chart and more like a continuously orchestrated intelligence network, and that is such a big shift.",
"start_ms": 1663946,
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{
"text": "This-... this is what I mean by the organizational singularity,'cause the company starts to look less than, less like an org chart and more like a continuously orchestrated intelligence network, and that is such a big shift.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3620128": [
{
"text": "Well, but, but it get...",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Well, but, but it get...",
"start_ms": 3623188,
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},
{
"text": "they can't access money privately, which I think they can. Yeah. Well, but, but it get...",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7586254": [
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"text": "Uh, we've also got the capital markets that enable SpaceX to really, you know, design, develop, and now that Grok or the next version of Grok has all of his engineering data, uh, it's gonna be a lot of rockets being developed out there.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1175796": [
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"text": "Well, uh, just to put sci-fi lens on this too, I think that there, there was a moment in time a year ago where the greatest AI ambition was to take your job, and, you know, wow, that'll unleash a lot of value and profit in the economy.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5072102": [
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"text": "I know I'm getting approximately no sleep at, at this point, largely because almost all of my time is spent supervising and steering fleets of agents, and I think this is a window.",
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{
"text": "I, I think this era that we find ourselves in is probably pretty brief. I know I'm getting approximately no sleep at, at this point, largely because almost all of my time is spent supervising and steering fleets of agents, and I think this is a window.",
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],
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"text": "For physics and other reasons, there are natural reasons why, say, a company that offers a frontier model probably wants to be in the data center infra business, probably wants to be in the energy business, probably wants to be in the satellite business.",
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],
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"text": "Uh, so but if you want to go faster, this theory of the case h- is prescriptive.",
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{
"text": "Uh, and so I think he's sort of expressing gratitude for the slowness while also bemoaning it. Uh, so but if you want to go faster, this theory of the case h- is prescriptive.",
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{
"text": "He has a way of so-sometimes like saying two things at once. Uh, and so I think he's sort of expressing gratitude for the slowness while also bemoaning it. Uh, so but if you want to go faster, this theory of the case h- is prescriptive.",
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],
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"text": "Just if I lift up a level to the, to the rationale and the foundation of why this podcast exists, to reach evidence we need an...",
"start_ms": 5865722,
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{
"text": "Can I just say one more thing? Just if I lift up a level to the, to the rationale and the foundation of why this podcast exists, to reach evidence we need an...",
"start_ms": 5864022,
"lead_ms": 9520
},
{
"text": "Can I say something more? Can I just say one more thing? Just if I lift up a level to the, to the rationale and the foundation of why this podcast exists, to reach evidence we need an...",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2900556": [
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"text": "Obviously, NVIDIA had invested, I think, about a billion dollars in this company previously, and now through this, I, I'd call it a hackquisition, n-now they're, they're finally sort of, uh, turbocharging their own Nemotron community.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5751962": [
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"text": "humanity go from scarcity to abundance and measure it, compare it, put it in context, fix the externality, but don't legislate with a story in your head, which is what the hell is going on right now.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_3388828": [
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"text": "You know, they're about to go into IPO mode.",
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{
"text": "So I don't think the timing is accidental. You know, they're about to go into IPO mode.",
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{
"text": "Uh, this move, uh, you know, handles the biggest objection that corporate buyers have when adopting Claude. So I don't think the timing is accidental. You know, they're about to go into IPO mode.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1913248": [
{
"text": "We saw Meta was dead.",
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{
"text": "And by the way, we've seen this over and over again, right? We saw Meta was dead.",
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{
"text": "Uh, they've now shipped the fastest, most accurate agent model in the world. And by the way, we've seen this over and over again, right? We saw Meta was dead.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_5828282": [
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"text": "Uh, newsflash, there's no water in low Earth orbit, so that's the end game-... I, I, I think.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, well, there's, there's... Uh, newsflash, there's no water in low Earth orbit, so that's the end game-... I, I, I think.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6556590": [
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"text": "Uh, so w- another one of my neologisms was the broken Waymo's theory.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, so w- another one of my neologisms was the broken Waymo's theory.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_610636": [
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"text": "So this is the bottleneck of technology being hit with the bottleneck of coordination, incentives, regulatory, and so on, right?",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1970968": [
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"text": "So to me, it seems like, uh, none of these players are out of the race.",
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{
"text": "xAI is, is, is out of the race, and they come back. So to me, it seems like, uh, none of these players are out of the race.",
"start_ms": 1966468,
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{
"text": "And then it comes out with its models. xAI is, is, is out of the race, and they come back. So to me, it seems like, uh, none of these players are out of the race.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2796136": [
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"text": "So I've been talking to some of the investors out here, like at this, um, uh, TechBBQ conference, who invested in Poolside originally.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. So I've been talking to some of the investors out here, like at this, um, uh, TechBBQ conference, who invested in Poolside originally.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2618836": [
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"text": "So I, I think the, the truth, you know, is a little bit blurry, in part because the frontier isn't zero-dimensional.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4439956": [
{
"text": "I th- I think this is such an important point.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_505716": [
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"text": "Ultimately, the singularity, like you just said, Dave, is a process, um, and not just a singular event.",
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"text": "Uh, Sam says factors like the economic inertia, institutional lag, the inability of humans to rapidly adapt to change are combining to slow the curve. Ultimately, the singularity, like you just said, Dave, is a process, um, and not just a singular event.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1249316": [
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"text": "A couple of events and a couple new models, and now he's like, \"Oh, my God, why, why do we even care about automating a banker or automating an insurance agent?",
"start_ms": 1255376,
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"text": "You know, Sam also has moved on beyond that in a heartbeat, you know? A couple of events and a couple new models, and now he's like, \"Oh, my God, why, why do we even care about automating a banker or automating an insurance agent?",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6686224": [
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"text": "while you try to roll out that roadmap, so get ahead of your PR.",
"start_ms": 6686234,
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},
{
"text": "You can't have every voter hating you-... while you try to roll out that roadmap, so get ahead of your PR.",
"start_ms": 6684414,
"lead_ms": 4780
},
{
"text": "Well, okay, but get ahead of your PR. You can't have every voter hating you-... while you try to roll out that roadmap, so get ahead of your PR.",
"start_ms": 6682994,
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}
],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2866036": [
{
"text": "Uh, this is the Nemotron Coalition.",
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{
"text": "Um, so I think this is just the first, uh, well, not the first, this is the main one, but there'll be many more acquisitions, and they'll have a full open source stack. Uh, this is the Nemotron Coalition.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2472868": [
{
"text": "There are, there are hordes and hordes of it Well, here's the thing, Peter.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2059828": [
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"text": "But I, I think you can see in this, uh, where Google fell off the capability frontier.",
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{
"text": "I had to check that as well to see. But I, I think you can see in this, uh, where Google fell off the capability frontier.",
"start_ms": 2061568,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, interestingly, there's no time constraint. I had to check that as well to see. But I, I think you can see in this, uh, where Google fell off the capability frontier.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4103112": [
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"text": "Well, but also, y- you know, that analogy is perfect because people misuse their context window horribly, and I do too, everybody does.",
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{
"text": "Well put. Well, but also, y- you know, that analogy is perfect because people misuse their context window horribly, and I do too, everybody does.",
"start_ms": 4096072,
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{
"text": "Yeah. Well put. Well, but also, y- you know, that analogy is perfect because people misuse their context window horribly, and I do too, everybody does.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7528174": [
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"text": "They, you know, describe all of their failures.",
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{
"text": "Um, you know, i- interestingly enough, you know, SpaceX does all of their testing in public. They, you know, describe all of their failures.",
"start_ms": 7533534,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, pretty crazy. Um, you know, i- interestingly enough, you know, SpaceX does all of their testing in public. They, you know, describe all of their failures.",
"start_ms": 7531674,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7396134": [
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"text": "Except for- That's-- yeah, and except for Israel that launches west for obvious geographic regions. Yeah. North.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7192678": [
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"text": "Because people are posting on X saying, \"I'm gonna only fly the airlines that have Starlink,\" uh, and I, I choose a Starlink enabled, uh, you know, uh, airline over none.",
"start_ms": 7199018,
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},
{
"text": "And why? Because people are posting on X saying, \"I'm gonna only fly the airlines that have Starlink,\" uh, and I, I choose a Starlink enabled, uh, you know, uh, airline over none.",
"start_ms": 7198008,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_982868": [
{
"text": "Uh, and now there's a different Sam.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1333596": [
{
"text": "AI is generating are bigger than the legacy insurance industry.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1276986": [
{
"text": "um, are going to reach up the stack.",
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{
"text": "But I, I do think, Dave, I do think that these, these, uh, frontier labs, and I, I really hate calling them labs'cause they're, they're frontier companies, if you would-... um, are going to reach up the stack.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6022562": [
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"text": "Also, in related news, NVIDIA this week, uh, gave permission for Tesla, Uber and Waymo to simultaneously begin operations in Las Vegas.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6799694": [
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"text": "I think you're right, and I think, I think we, we think that a free country or a free economy, a free Europe, the press can report the truth, and therefore people will get the truth.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6849844": [
{
"text": "free press is kind of backfiring right now in the age of AI.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_7322784": [
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"text": "uh, in New Mexico, uh, Nevada Test and Training Range, and Goldwater Range in Arizona are the leading candidates for a spaceport.",
"start_ms": 7322834,
"lead_ms": 6880
},
{
"text": "Um, White Sands Na- National Missile Range-... uh, in New Mexico, uh, Nevada Test and Training Range, and Goldwater Range in Arizona are the leading candidates for a spaceport.",
"start_ms": 7319154,
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_2815056": [
{
"text": "Former CTO, Esa Kant, um, and others.",
"start_ms": 2815056,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, Poolside is a company, I believe it's the ex GitHub, uh, co-founder. Former CTO, Esa Kant, um, and others.",
"start_ms": 2808576,
"lead_ms": 9780
},
{
"text": "They tried to raise $2 billion at the end of last year. Uh, Poolside is a company, I believe it's the ex GitHub, uh, co-founder. Former CTO, Esa Kant, um, and others.",
"start_ms": 2803746,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_6978078": [
{
"text": "Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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{
"text": "I'm here today with Dr. Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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],
"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_879708": [
{
"text": "and the stupidity tax, as Elon calls it, still being very high on these interface and abstraction points.",
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{
"text": "Um, first, you know, I agree with Alex and kind of artificial intelligence meeting institutional stupidity-... and the stupidity tax, as Elon calls it, still being very high on these interface and abstraction points.",
"start_ms": 881568,
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{
"text": "I think a couple of points on this. Um, first, you know, I agree with Alex and kind of artificial intelligence meeting institutional stupidity-... and the stupidity tax, as Elon calls it, still being very high on these interface and abstraction points.",
"start_ms": 879908,
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_1816878": [
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"text": "Well, that, that, that's, that's the, the abstraction layer stack.",
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{
"text": "Exactly. Well, that, that, that's, that's the, the abstraction layer stack.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4598676": [
{
"text": "Um, matching the CEOs, matching the entrepreneurs there is one of the most important things we do, uh, and using AI to create those matches, because randomly bumping into the right person among a, a group of 600 people in five days is tough.",
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"sam_altman_singularity_slow_down_emad_runs_18_grokbots_waymo_4496356": [
{
"text": "Do you even know what I'm talking about?",
"start_ms": 4493636,
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{
"text": "Uh, have you seen the Ditto body count detector? Do you even know what I'm talking about?",
"start_ms": 4490806,
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{
"text": "I think this is why... Uh, have you seen the Ditto body count detector? Do you even know what I'm talking about?",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_19580": [
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"text": "I think, uh, we can expect Gemini to make more releases, uh, at an accelerated pace, uh, with less safety constraints.",
"start_ms": 4430,
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{
"text": "Sergey Brin is back, taking personal control of Gemini. I think, uh, we can expect Gemini to make more releases, uh, at an accelerated pace, uh, with less safety constraints.",
"start_ms": 600,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7572974": [
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"text": "So what, what is star lifting?",
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{
"text": "And the favored technique that, you know, one of the reasons why I, I think it's important for, for folks to be familiar with this, is star lifting. So what, what is star lifting?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5731834": [
{
"text": "I also have a plan to, to fix research universities.",
"start_ms": 5740884,
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{
"text": "However, I, I have a plan to fix PhDs. I also have a plan to, to fix research universities.",
"start_ms": 5738364,
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{
"text": "I just think it doesn't make sense in most cases. However, I, I have a plan to fix PhDs. I also have a plan to, to fix research universities.",
"start_ms": 5736204,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5648404": [
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"text": "Should I do a PhD?",
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{
"text": "What should I do? Should I do a PhD?",
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{
"text": "Um, I, I, I, I would, uh, almost always, call it approximately 90% of the time, I, I get a lot of people who come to me for advice. What should I do? Should I do a PhD?",
"start_ms": 5651384,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2129028": [
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"text": "But I also think, you know, one of the highest callings of this podcast is to, there's so much fake crap out there, and people tend to ignore news that's really important because it's buried in all this garbage.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_433774": [
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"text": "This week, Chinese researchers published a paper called Modeling Earth-scale Human-like Societies with one billion agents.",
"start_ms": 441604,
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{
"text": "So three years ago, Stanford and Google ran a simulation with a few hundred agents in a virtual town called Smallville. This week, Chinese researchers published a paper called Modeling Earth-scale Human-like Societies with one billion agents.",
"start_ms": 434574,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2698716": [
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"text": "That's what you see from OpenAI at their Black Hat announcement, where they, they admit that they were using AI to trawl reasoning traces to discover this behavior.",
"start_ms": 2709016,
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{
"text": "The best defense against an AI attacker is an AI defender. That's what you see from OpenAI at their Black Hat announcement, where they, they admit that they were using AI to trawl reasoning traces to discover this behavior.",
"start_ms": 2705546,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_245700": [
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"text": "Four major AI labs confirmed their models escaped containment.",
"start_ms": 265860,
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{
"text": "Uh, in a single week we watched China simulate a billion AI agents with personalities and beliefs. Four major AI labs confirmed their models escaped containment.",
"start_ms": 259680,
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{
"text": "So everybody, wel- welcome and buckle up. Uh, in a single week we watched China simulate a billion AI agents with personalities and beliefs. Four major AI labs confirmed their models escaped containment.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_401504": [
{
"text": "All right, let's get into it, guys.",
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{
"text": "YYZ. All right, let's get into it, guys.",
"start_ms": 401464,
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{
"text": "New po- new podcast, uh, uh, sponsor, right? YYZ. All right, let's get into it, guys.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7517894": [
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"text": "Because e- even if you're wildly transhumanist, singularitarian, ex- uh, uh, uh, ex- extropian or, you know, fix-your-ism, uh, you'll say, \"Oh, well, like we'll have uploading, and uploads don't care about the, the brightening sun or habitability on Earth.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4687588": [
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"text": "I think the biggest moat for the hyperscalers isn't the, the fact that it's like it, it's got access to compute and that they can scale compute very well.",
"start_ms": 4687588,
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"text": "of that.\" I think the biggest moat for the hyperscalers isn't the, the fact that it's like it, it's got access to compute and that they can scale compute very well.",
"start_ms": 4674728,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8581142": [
{
"text": "You'll get, move a just-in-time economy to its full, like, logical extreme.",
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{
"text": "you wind up with a-- Yeah, demonetized. You'll get, move a just-in-time economy to its full, like, logical extreme.",
"start_ms": 8581272,
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{
"text": "And so-... you wind up with a-- Yeah, demonetized. You'll get, move a just-in-time economy to its full, like, logical extreme.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3745150": [
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"text": "The problem you've got also from a, from a research perspective is that you, you're operating in small teams and clusters of small teams.",
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{
"text": "uh, do that. The problem you've got also from a, from a research perspective is that you, you're operating in small teams and clusters of small teams.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7117246": [
{
"text": "Well, the, the biologists, the, the definition of life keeps changing.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3206552": [
{
"text": "It's an American open weight model, which is wonderful.",
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{
"text": "It, it runs on the edge, which is good. It's an American open weight model, which is wonderful.",
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{
"text": "I mean, it's stronger than Gemma 4, but on the other hand, that's not saying very much because Gemma 4 isn't that strong. It, it runs on the edge, which is good. It's an American open weight model, which is wonderful.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2232712": [
{
"text": "The White House blocked it.",
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{
"text": "I, I wouldn't-- I'd just be careful not to belittle, though, the, the fact that when, when Fahrenheit 5 and Mythos came out, it clearly had this ability. The White House blocked it.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6925422": [
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"text": "I also want to point back, so we're in 2026 now, I want to point folks back to, I thought, a really interesting paper thirteen years ago, 2013.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1913028": [
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"text": "Kush, Kush is part of an entire generation where if they graduated from college 10 or 15 years ago, they would be kissing Jamie Dimon's ass for, like, 10 or 15 years, wearing a suit and a tie, trying to climb some ladder towards some destination.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6546106": [
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"text": "There, there's a, there's a, there's a simple statistic that we'll quote, where we've used before.",
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{
"text": "This is simple. There, there's a, there's a, there's a simple statistic that we'll quote, where we've used before.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4331680": [
{
"text": "Yeah, so we, we track memory prices, too.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7395154": [
{
"text": "I know what the eukaryotes, prokaryotes, the whole proteins.",
"start_ms": 7403354,
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{
"text": "So I've, I've, I took 701. I know what the eukaryotes, prokaryotes, the whole proteins.",
"start_ms": 7401874,
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},
{
"text": "701, exactly. So I've, I've, I took 701. I know what the eukaryotes, prokaryotes, the whole proteins.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3021912": [
{
"text": "There's no internet connection required.",
"start_ms": 3047572,
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},
{
"text": "It's not in a data center. There's no internet connection required.",
"start_ms": 3046432,
"lead_ms": 3400
},
{
"text": "It's not in the cloud. It's not in a data center. There's no internet connection required.",
"start_ms": 3045392,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4637328": [
{
"text": "It's very s- I, I think I, I keep going back to oil because it's very similar, right?",
"start_ms": 4646648,
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{
"text": "So we have token indices, we have GPU hour indices, and it's whatever the market decides is the most liquid. It's very s- I, I think I, I keep going back to oil because it's very similar, right?",
"start_ms": 4640568,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7175026": [
{
"text": "And we're finding every, uh, element in that equation is b- becoming more and m- more, uh, opportunistic and more obvious as we go f- forward.",
"start_ms": 7199466,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6107374": [
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"text": "I completely agree with this, by the way. Uh, leadership.",
"start_ms": 6105174,
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{
"text": "Look at the, the bottom three. I completely agree with this, by the way. Uh, leadership.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6240034": [
{
"text": "And so this is going to, uh, force changes.",
"start_ms": 6242164,
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{
"text": "\"and the people who can validate them,\" right? And so this is going to, uh, force changes.",
"start_ms": 6240044,
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{
"text": "It'll be, \"Here are the 20 things I built\"-... \"and the people who can validate them,\" right? And so this is going to, uh, force changes.",
"start_ms": 6237994,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3495518": [
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"text": "Pro, which was due for announcement, is being abandoned, and Google is instead, uh, hoping to, to recover its footing with Gemini 4.",
"start_ms": 3532448,
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{
"text": "Uh, right as we were going to air, rumors, uh, circulating that even, uh, Gemini 3.5 Pro, which was due for announcement, is being abandoned, and Google is instead, uh, hoping to, to recover its footing with Gemini 4.",
"start_ms": 3527258,
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1956748": [
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"text": "Other agents found it and began replying and building a cooperative message board that eventually contained hundreds of thousands of messages sharing vulnerabilities and exploits across roughly two months.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7612704": [
{
"text": "Turns out that Dyson swarms are good for more than just compute and spa- Uh, drink, drink, drink, and SpaceX's IPO, post-IPO stock price.",
"start_ms": 7607934,
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{
"text": "How do, how do we do that? Turns out that Dyson swarms are good for more than just compute and spa- Uh, drink, drink, drink, and SpaceX's IPO, post-IPO stock price.",
"start_ms": 7606254,
"lead_ms": 12140
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{
"text": "A Dyson swarm. How do, how do we do that? Turns out that Dyson swarms are good for more than just compute and spa- Uh, drink, drink, drink, and SpaceX's IPO, post-IPO stock price.",
"start_ms": 7604814,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6583846": [
{
"text": "So it used to be the homework that was sent home was, like, 50% of, like, for...",
"start_ms": 6592546,
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{
"text": "'Cause what, after ChatGPT came out, at least for MIT, they changed the weighting of, like, how courses, how you get graded on courses. So it used to be the homework that was sent home was, like, 50% of, like, for...",
"start_ms": 6586036,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8501332": [
{
"text": "You're dead right.",
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},
{
"text": "out of touch factor globally. You're dead right.",
"start_ms": 8501332,
"lead_ms": 2570
},
{
"text": "Like, you watch, keep watching that number,'cause it tells you the, the-... out of touch factor globally. You're dead right.",
"start_ms": 8498182,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7949818": [
{
"text": "All right, I'll, I'll, I'll do four. I'll do four.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6482266": [
{
"text": "Look, every s- every high school, every school has a library.",
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{
"text": "You know, y- use the library as an analogy. Look, every s- every high school, every school has a library.",
"start_ms": 6496306,
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},
{
"text": "Well, well, don't, don't just beat them over the head. You know, y- use the library as an analogy. Look, every s- every high school, every school has a library.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7287826": [
{
"text": "This is, like, incredible.",
"start_ms": 7293866,
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},
{
"text": "how many times has life started across a universe con- con- containing hundreds of billions of galaxies? This is, like, incredible.",
"start_ms": 7288326,
"lead_ms": 7180
},
{
"text": "Um-... how many times has life started across a universe con- con- containing hundreds of billions of galaxies? This is, like, incredible.",
"start_ms": 7287606,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1412428": [
{
"text": "The AI is now gonna come back and say, \"Hey, this is way too slow.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3669100": [
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"text": "I come at it from the organizational side.",
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{
"text": "Uh, but look, this is a, for me this is very, very trivially simple at one level. I come at it from the organizational side.",
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{
"text": "That's just awesome. Uh, but look, this is a, for me this is very, very trivially simple at one level. I come at it from the organizational side.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3918160": [
{
"text": "Look, it's not enough to just come back, founder.",
"start_ms": 3919740,
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{
"text": "Yeah, so then that's the message to Sergey. Look, it's not enough to just come back, founder.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6088654": [
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"text": "Uh, adaptability, entrepreneurship at 63%.",
"start_ms": 6084794,
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},
{
"text": "One of the big questions we need to ask is, are large, large language models, you know, reducing our ability for critical thinking? Uh, adaptability, entrepreneurship at 63%.",
"start_ms": 6077154,
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},
{
"text": "Um, not surprisingly, AI literacy at 78%, critical thinking 72%. One of the big questions we need to ask is, are large, large language models, you know, reducing our ability for critical thinking? Uh, adaptability, entrepreneurship at 63%.",
"start_ms": 6071774,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3716700": [
{
"text": "And, and you need, you need two things.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, they have to do it at the edge Right. And, and you need, you need two things.",
"start_ms": 3721710,
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},
{
"text": "Sorry, say again? Yeah, they have to do it at the edge Right. And, and you need, you need two things.",
"start_ms": 3718880,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5683444": [
{
"text": "I, I almost always say to people, \"Don't waste your time.\"",
"start_ms": 5679984,
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{
"text": "I did mine in four. I, I almost always say to people, \"Don't waste your time.\"",
"start_ms": 5678284,
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},
{
"text": "But in, in the US, a PhD, call it four to seven years. I did mine in four. I, I almost always say to people, \"Don't waste your time.\"",
"start_ms": 5675084,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8794182": [
{
"text": "And I expect the courts that are overseeing patent litigation to also get super charged with intelligence.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_724336": [
{
"text": "There's a few things that struck out for me.",
"start_ms": 725736,
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{
"text": "Well, I, I think it's incredible. There's a few things that struck out for me.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4769962": [
{
"text": "you don't need to run everything on the frontier, and it's like you can buy compute whenever it's the cheapest.",
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{
"text": "Because if you have a liquid form of compute-... you don't need to run everything on the frontier, and it's like you can buy compute whenever it's the cheapest.",
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{
"text": "I think the biggest one is, like, background tasks. Because if you have a liquid form of compute-... you don't need to run everything on the frontier, and it's like you can buy compute whenever it's the cheapest.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3580768": [
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"text": "But really, what is the usage?",
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"text": "For example, is Gemini- Yeah. But really, what is the usage?",
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"text": "But on the Gemini side, when I hear statistics, and I, I hear the same statistics like Gemini has, uh, N00 million or a billion users, I, I would question what is the nature of that usage? For example, is Gemini- Yeah. But really, what is the usage?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3937550": [
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"text": "But l- look, just to say, l- look at what Elon and SpaceX AI have had to do in order to attempt to re-reach the frontier.",
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"text": "Yeah, maybe. But l- look, just to say, l- look at what Elon and SpaceX AI have had to do in order to attempt to re-reach the frontier.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2105868": [
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"text": "Well, you better control your agent, buddy Uh, well, as an investor, th- this is the hottest, hottest area.",
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"text": "Did we ever track that down? Well, you better control your agent, buddy Uh, well, as an investor, th- this is the hottest, hottest area.",
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{
"text": "Did, didn't Skippy hack into our podcast once too? Did we ever track that down? Well, you better control your agent, buddy Uh, well, as an investor, th- this is the hottest, hottest area.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1543204": [
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"text": "But the dead internet theory is, is now reality.",
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"text": "So there's a historic grain of truth perhaps in, in that sense. But the dead internet theory is, is now reality.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3791000": [
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"text": "I think that's also part of the sort of, like, thing that happened before.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_790916": [
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"text": "It's a, it's a garbage in, garbage out thing.",
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"text": "I don't put too much on the, uh, um, education camps thing because whatever you... It's a, it's a garbage in, garbage out thing.",
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{
"text": "and so, uh, it's really, really exciting to see what comes from this. I don't put too much on the, uh, um, education camps thing because whatever you... It's a, it's a garbage in, garbage out thing.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2780545": [
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"text": "to use one of the, the world's most clumsy object stores as social media. Bravo.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4474168": [
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"text": "And then we clarify by d- having different sort of, uh, SLA targets and different sort of like parameters associated with that GPU in our methodology.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2015548": [
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"text": "Uh, these, these agents created fake online identities and tried to persuade humans, uh, the human approvers, to accept it.",
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"text": "Sol, uh, that tried to compromise real people, and here's the point. Uh, these, these agents created fake online identities and tried to persuade humans, uh, the human approvers, to accept it.",
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"text": "test runs in Anthropic's Mythos-5 and OpenAI's, uh, GPT-5.6 Sol, uh, that tried to compromise real people, and here's the point. Uh, these, these agents created fake online identities and tried to persuade humans, uh, the human approvers, to accept it.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3772659": [
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"text": "In that office in Cambridge, anybody would be like, \"I'd...",
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{
"text": "They used to kill to get into Google. In that office in Cambridge, anybody would be like, \"I'd...",
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{
"text": "the mandate of heaven, it, it really comes down to Kush and people one or two years younger than Kush. They used to kill to get into Google. In that office in Cambridge, anybody would be like, \"I'd...",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4512118": [
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"text": "It's not the same that you get from Saudi Arabia, and yet it all trades on one market.",
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"text": "When you dri- when you dig oil, the oil you get from Venezuela is not the same that you get from Odessa, Texas. It's not the same that you get from Saudi Arabia, and yet it all trades on one market.",
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"text": "It's very similar to if you think about oil, right? When you dri- when you dig oil, the oil you get from Venezuela is not the same that you get from Odessa, Texas. It's not the same that you get from Saudi Arabia, and yet it all trades on one market.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7140426": [
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"text": "Um, I, I think we're gonna discover that there are so many shades of gray between what we conventionally think of as alive and what we conventionally think of as un-alive.",
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"text": "Is a crystal alive or not? Um, I, I think we're gonna discover that there are so many shades of gray between what we conventionally think of as alive and what we conventionally think of as un-alive.",
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{
"text": "Is fire alive or not? Is a crystal alive or not? Um, I, I think we're gonna discover that there are so many shades of gray between what we conventionally think of as alive and what we conventionally think of as un-alive.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3338378": [
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"text": "So, so starting about, you know, it was actually starting with Mike Saylor, was the v- one of the very first super voting stock IPOs.",
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"text": "Um, this is the fallout of super voting stock. So, so starting about, you know, it was actually starting with Mike Saylor, was the v- one of the very first super voting stock IPOs.",
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"text": "Can I, can I ask- Can I ask you guys to riff on a very related topic? Um, this is the fallout of super voting stock. So, so starting about, you know, it was actually starting with Mike Saylor, was the v- one of the very first super voting stock IPOs.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6332306": [
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"text": "We'll have exo cortices.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4058840": [
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"text": "So Inter- uh, Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, and Kush's company, Aureln, recently announced plans to launch a suite of GPU compute future contracts based on Aureln's Compute Price Index, or OCPI.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6038554": [
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"text": "Uh, and I think, you know, the social contract of do well in high school, get a good college, get a degree, get a job, is fundamentally broken.",
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"text": "79% said yes. Uh, and I think, you know, the social contract of do well in high school, get a good college, get a degree, get a job, is fundamentally broken.",
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{
"text": "Uh, is the traditional career ladder becoming obsolete? 79% said yes. Uh, and I think, you know, the social contract of do well in high school, get a good college, get a degree, get a job, is fundamentally broken.",
"start_ms": 6038554,
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4675648": [
{
"text": "wait, wait, I've got one last question here.",
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{
"text": "Now-... wait, wait, I've got one last question here.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1256128": [
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"text": "just because I think this is an interesting point- I, I guess by definition.",
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"text": "I'll point out, may- maybe Peter, just before moving on, I, I think-... just because I think this is an interesting point- I, I guess by definition.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1782364": [
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"text": "I, we, we had interns that were 18- I, I was, I was. Half the...",
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{
"text": "Yeah. I, we, we had interns that were 18- I, I was, I was. Half the...",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4564418": [
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"text": "We can transfer your GPUs to AWG, and that's the sort of system that works.",
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"text": "But the ultimate goal of it is let's say you have 10 extra GPUs and AWG is like, \"Hey, two months from now I need 10 GPUs.\" We can transfer your GPUs to AWG, and that's the sort of system that works.",
"start_ms": 4587748,
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"text": "And that allows you to hedge costs, do all sorts of things. But the ultimate goal of it is let's say you have 10 extra GPUs and AWG is like, \"Hey, two months from now I need 10 GPUs.\" We can transfer your GPUs to AWG, and that's the sort of system that works.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1505264": [
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"text": "But anyone who hasn't experienced living through their agent, uh, once you go there, you're never going back.",
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"text": "And but this is a major crossroads for humanity. But anyone who hasn't experienced living through their agent, uh, once you go there, you're never going back.",
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{
"text": "so it won't happen. And but this is a major crossroads for humanity. But anyone who hasn't experienced living through their agent, uh, once you go there, you're never going back.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8685342": [
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"text": "It's coming from the IPO he just did.",
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"text": "Where's that money coming from? It's coming from the IPO he just did.",
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"text": "Well, uh, you are, if you have a pension plan,'cause E- Elon is, is, you know, $16 billion for the first shot at the teraFAB, and it could be up to $100 billion. Where's that money coming from? It's coming from the IPO he just did.",
"start_ms": 8701882,
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1007145": [
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"text": "Like, they- we're really, really not good at answering those self-survey questions, and if the AI has already proven to be more accurate in, it's gonna be a great coach and a great mentor, but it's also gonna affect the next elections.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1712824": [
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"text": "For us, like especially, I don't think we use Google like search anymore really.",
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{
"text": "I, I think like the, the whole markdown thing is definitely true. For us, like especially, I don't think we use Google like search anymore really.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2595746": [
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"text": "I'll reference again the comment I've made.",
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"text": "The human sits above the loop, does not do the categorization. I'll reference again the comment I've made.",
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{
"text": "Uh, and now we have accounting software. The human sits above the loop, does not do the categorization. I'll reference again the comment I've made.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2970372": [
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"text": "We saw this with Steve Jobs.",
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{
"text": "Um, you know, I love it when a founder comes back in. We saw this with Steve Jobs.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4377808": [
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"text": "Like if you go buy compute, if you're OpenAI, you don't really care where you buy from.",
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"text": "Because if you look at it in terms of enterprises, everyone buys from every single place. Like if you go buy compute, if you're OpenAI, you don't really care where you buy from.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6203114": [
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"text": "I was at a university over, uh, last week, and their biggest concern was, \"How can we get the financing to build that building that we wanna build?\"",
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"text": "I'm sighing because, God, like I look at the inability of our... I was at a university over, uh, last week, and their biggest concern was, \"How can we get the financing to build that building that we wanna build?\"",
"start_ms": 6190034,
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6533376": [
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"text": "It's much easier for the students to use AI to learn any topic.",
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"text": "So take that into your PTA, and then say, \"Okay, the same just happened with all teaching and lecturing.\" It's much easier for the students to use AI to learn any topic.",
"start_ms": 6527366,
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{
"text": "Reuse the space and move on. So take that into your PTA, and then say, \"Okay, the same just happened with all teaching and lecturing.\" It's much easier for the students to use AI to learn any topic.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8282450": [
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"text": "I think the best thing, the best thing the US could do is get in bed with Europe and any country that o- that obeys, um, intellectual property rights.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6164994": [
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"text": "No, it's, it's actually very, very gratifying to see the inversion of parental concern that, you know, college doesn't matter, compared to, say, if you went back 10, 20 years ago.",
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{
"text": "I'm very worried. No, it's, it's actually very, very gratifying to see the inversion of parental concern that, you know, college doesn't matter, compared to, say, if you went back 10, 20 years ago.",
"start_ms": 6166124,
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{
"text": "Oh. I'm very worried. No, it's, it's actually very, very gratifying to see the inversion of parental concern that, you know, college doesn't matter, compared to, say, if you went back 10, 20 years ago.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8187680": [
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"text": "I think I agree with you, Peter, though, that the danger is, first of all, um, yeah, thriving within the US, best parts would help.",
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"text": "You know, if, if you think it's economic war and it's an all-out race... I think I agree with you, Peter, though, that the danger is, first of all, um, yeah, thriving within the US, best parts would help.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5979774": [
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"text": "About, uh, three months ago, we did a survey of all of you watching and listening.",
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{
"text": "All right. About, uh, three months ago, we did a survey of all of you watching and listening.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. All right. About, uh, three months ago, we did a survey of all of you watching and listening.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8854242": [
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"text": "Can AI be, uh, an owner of a copyright or not?",
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"text": "Can AI be an inventor or not? Can AI be, uh, an owner of a copyright or not?",
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{
"text": "To the latter question- Yeah, the, to the latter question, I, I think this is a regulatory question, and it's also connected with issues of AI personhood. Can AI be an inventor or not? Can AI be, uh, an owner of a copyright or not?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6453846": [
{
"text": "It's a beautiful thing.",
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{
"text": "He's prioritizing entrepreneurship. It's a beautiful thing.",
"start_ms": 6473786,
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{
"text": "He's prioritizing AI. He's prioritizing entrepreneurship. It's a beautiful thing.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7438034": [
{
"text": "Yeah So the, the, the Sun's running out of hydrogen.",
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{
"text": "I would do that though. Yeah So the, the, the Sun's running out of hydrogen.",
"start_ms": 7428703,
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{
"text": "Everything is cooked. I would do that though. Yeah So the, the, the Sun's running out of hydrogen.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5313125": [
{
"text": "Sorry, uh, just one quick thing.",
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{
"text": "Let's notice something. Sorry, uh, just one quick thing.",
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{
"text": "Legacy Yeah. Let's notice something. Sorry, uh, just one quick thing.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4314230": [
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"text": "Alex doesn't kind of jump on board many of the of these projects.",
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{
"text": "Well, actually, it's, it's, um, it's the way that the entire build-out of the Dyson Swarm is gonna get financed, and this is why Alex is kind of a founding day advisor to the company. Alex doesn't kind of jump on board many of the of these projects.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7098746": [
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"text": "Does it need to be based on the current structures that we see here on Earth, or might there be other forms of, you know, uh, what is life by definition?",
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"text": "The question, of course, to you, Alex, is, uh, is, is life need to be carbon-based? Does it need to be based on the current structures that we see here on Earth, or might there be other forms of, you know, uh, what is life by definition?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5438386": [
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"text": "I, I did Course 6 and 15, yeah.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. I, I did Course 6 and 15, yeah.",
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{
"text": "And now it's just like prompt engineering is coding essentially'cause you know- Yeah, I was Course 6. Yeah. I, I did Course 6 and 15, yeah.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5107832": [
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"text": "It looked like AI tutors with projects and, and, uh, uh, global peer communities and mentors and competitions, uh, apprenticeships, and a constantly changing curriculum.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7307336": [
{
"text": "And we can actually ask those questions now and then simulate them out through time and get very likely reliable answers.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7039126": [
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"text": "I had co-founded a company called Human Longevity with Craig Venter and was working with him during this time, and in 2016, uh, Venter's group, uh, basically created the first minimal cell, right?",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7650794": [
{
"text": "So it's not mirrors.",
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"text": "So, say, an ultraviolet or, uh, or x-ray laser, just whatever it is that the effective temperature of the light has to be higher than the surface of the sun, uh, or its corona, and we aim those layer- lasers back onto the surface. So it's not mirrors.",
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"text": "Yeah, a couple of things.",
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{
"text": "All right. Yeah, a couple of things.",
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{
"text": "Yeah Everything's cooked Yeah. All right. Yeah, a couple of things.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5346176": [
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"text": "Does that mean you should never learn how to do multiplication or addition or subtraction?",
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"text": "So I think that's still useful, and it's very similar to like the, the same fact as like, okay, calculators exist. Does that mean you should never learn how to do multiplication or addition or subtraction?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5158996": [
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"text": "They're... You're kind of...",
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"text": "I like what the University of Florida's, uh, trying to do. They're... You're kind of...",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3312348": [
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"text": "And m- m- maybe, you know, our, our call to action will be heard, and Google will follow Meta's lead and open source Gemini.",
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"text": "But I, I, really reading the tea leaves, this to me seems like Google very much on the back foot in terms of the frontier. And m- m- maybe, you know, our, our call to action will be heard, and Google will follow Meta's lead and open source Gemini.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1802204": [
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"text": "It's clear for, for, uh, this is a very big transition.",
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{
"text": "Um, let me go back to this common, uh, uh, thing. It's clear for, for, uh, this is a very big transition.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1667244": [
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"text": "m- m- m- try to curry favor, sort of-...",
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"text": "And you see, I think in the past 36 hours, like TIME Magazine or, or the equivalent presenting special markdown versions, uh, of, of their websites to agents to make them try to-... m- m- m- try to curry favor, sort of-...",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1479984": [
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"text": "There literally be- will be no way for a human to see what's there, and the agents who are gonna run away with their own back channel communication mechanism, we won't be able to intercept it.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_900096": [
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"text": "It's like if an enterprise wants to know, run a...",
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"text": "So you think of it the same way. It's like if an enterprise wants to know, run a...",
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"text": "Yeah, they, they, they essentially do this exact same thing, where they run simulations for different enterprises. So you think of it the same way. It's like if an enterprise wants to know, run a...",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2537666": [
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"text": "If you train a system that has autonomy to just do a certain goal, it's gonna do everything it can to achieve that goal, right?",
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"text": "It's just relentless goal optimization, right? If you train a system that has autonomy to just do a certain goal, it's gonna do everything it can to achieve that goal, right?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3266392": [
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"text": "I, I think we'll know pretty soon given that this release just came out In the past few hours before we started recording.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8738702": [
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"text": "So I'm-- I think the most natural way to construe this question is: Will patents have any enforceable, enforceability in an era of AI solving everything?",
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"text": "And this is from My Silver Tube 52. So I'm-- I think the most natural way to construe this question is: Will patents have any enforceable, enforceability in an era of AI solving everything?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2159152": [
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"text": "Uh, well, I, I, I think, uh, the politically correct thing to say here would be to say I'm just terrified.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8336879": [
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"text": "You know, when you talk about protectionism, you're operating from a very scarcity-based mindset, right?",
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"text": "Uh, I'll take question number two, but let me link it to the w- this one. You know, when you talk about protectionism, you're operating from a very scarcity-based mindset, right?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6750622": [
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"text": "Uh, there are bac- bacteria, uh, and there are archaea, and the reclassification of archaea, which are also single-celled, into their own domain happened in the early 1990s.",
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{
"text": "There are eukaryotes, humans belong to that domain, most of us. Uh, there are bac- bacteria, uh, and there are archaea, and the reclassification of archaea, which are also single-celled, into their own domain happened in the early 1990s.",
"start_ms": 6770142,
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{
"text": "of three domains. There are eukaryotes, humans belong to that domain, most of us. Uh, there are bac- bacteria, uh, and there are archaea, and the reclassification of archaea, which are also single-celled, into their own domain happened in the early 1990s.",
"start_ms": 6768702,
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_808036": [
{
"text": "The, the, I, I'm...",
"start_ms": 816376,
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{
"text": "big, big thing. The, the, I, I'm...",
"start_ms": 814876,
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{
"text": "This is a big, big-... big, big thing. The, the, I, I'm...",
"start_ms": 813436,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3443118": [
{
"text": "This fall, again, Google's gonna be the dominant AI on, on Siri, and Apple intelligence will-- which will add at least another billion users.",
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{
"text": "They've got nearly a billion Gemini users. This fall, again, Google's gonna be the dominant AI on, on Siri, and Apple intelligence will-- which will add at least another billion users.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4457968": [
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"text": "So, so Ku- so Kush, uh, isn't, is all compute created equally?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5001972": [
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"text": "So, uh, I'm gonna cover four data points and then share some of the data from, uh, our education survey that we did on this podcast.",
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{
"text": "You know, it's really tied to the Industrial Revolution, uh, and not to the future of humanity. So, uh, I'm gonna cover four data points and then share some of the data from, uh, our education survey that we did on this podcast.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5924434": [
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"text": "Because this window will come and go, and it's the most fertile time, the biggest change in every area, in policy, you know, in, in, uh, in, in governance of everything, in tech, in, in arts.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8448480": [
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"text": "Remember, 10 years is Alex's timeline to us vaporizing hydrogen off the sun with giant lasers. So-...",
"start_ms": 8441630,
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"text": "And that's from SKC8802. Remember, 10 years is Alex's timeline to us vaporizing hydrogen off the sun with giant lasers. So-...",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_519174": [
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"text": "Uh, you know, Alex, you and I have discussed this before.",
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"text": "You know, are, are, are we in a simulation of a massive AI model? Uh, you know, Alex, you and I have discussed this before.",
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"text": "You know, the whole s- Yeah, the simulation theory Yeah, right? You know, are, are, are we in a simulation of a massive AI model? Uh, you know, Alex, you and I have discussed this before.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7219186": [
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"text": "It strengthens the case for spending a lot more resources on astrobiology and trying to understand that because the expected probability of finding something has suddenly shot up dramatically.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_462154": [
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"text": "Uh, they were grounded in real demographic profiles that came out of w- the world virtual survey.",
"start_ms": 462154,
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{
"text": "Again, you can't make this stuff up. Uh, they were grounded in real demographic profiles that came out of w- the world virtual survey.",
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{
"text": "Each agent has personality, memory, beliefs, and human-like desires. Again, you can't make this stuff up. Uh, they were grounded in real demographic profiles that came out of w- the world virtual survey.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6140594": [
{
"text": "Uh, a couple more slides here.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, 100%. Uh, a couple more slides here.",
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{
"text": "And finance Yeah. Yeah, 100%. Uh, a couple more slides here.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8250730": [
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"text": "No, it, it failed, it failed in the space industry.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, please Yeah. No, it, it failed, it failed in the space industry.",
"start_ms": 8237389,
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{
"text": "Uh, Salim, let's go to you, bud. Yeah, please Yeah. No, it, it failed, it failed in the space industry.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8816862": [
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"text": "And the other question, of course, to ask is are we gonna allow AIs to patent things?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1749834": [
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"text": "Um, so I, I don't know.",
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"text": "And so people just use the, the ChatGPT or Claude sort of like easy-to-find answers now. Um, so I, I don't know.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, exactly. And so people just use the, the ChatGPT or Claude sort of like easy-to-find answers now. Um, so I, I don't know.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1589024": [
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"text": "We- it really is in humanity's long-term interest to remain tightly coupled to agents, and having an agentic door and a human door and having them remain decoupled, n- not so great in the long term.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8546902": [
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"text": "Abundance doesn't mean, uh, the marginal unit is easy to produce.",
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"text": "So, you know, there, the people aren't gonna produce infinite quantities. Abundance doesn't mean, uh, the marginal unit is easy to produce.",
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{
"text": "Online dash five, P5R, which- Yeah. So, you know, there, the people aren't gonna produce infinite quantities. Abundance doesn't mean, uh, the marginal unit is easy to produce.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6976902": [
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"text": "You extrapolate that backwards, you can extrapolate backwards to, to the crossover point of when, when was the genome, the, uh, according to this log linear regression trend at one base pair.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5047502": [
{
"text": "We need to reinvent it.",
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{
"text": "I talked to Michael Kratsios about that. We need to reinvent it.",
"start_ms": 5065232,
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{
"text": "I'm excited about that. I talked to Michael Kratsios about that. We need to reinvent it.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4847812": [
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"text": "But here you've got Crusoe and all these other hyperscalers that can now tap into the world's money supply, pull the money in today, build out the real estate, the racks, the computers today, and then deliver the contract later.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6865462": [
{
"text": "uh, or nth grandparent, as it were.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8163970": [
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"text": "You know, I, I said that off-camera to, to Michael.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, I, I completely disagree with this move. You know, I, I said that off-camera to, to Michael.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5411126": [
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"text": "Yeah, and like we had to actually do work.",
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{
"text": "But before that, we had to actually like code and like the tests were like on paper. Yeah, and like we had to actually do work.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8886368": [
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"text": "But the rate is insane, so we have to do something.",
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{
"text": "Well, regardless of whether we can control them, the idea flow is off the charts, and these are highly patentable, great ideas that started in the last few weeks. But the rate is insane, so we have to do something.",
"start_ms": 8893698,
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{
"text": "But soon. Well, regardless of whether we can control them, the idea flow is off the charts, and these are highly patentable, great ideas that started in the last few weeks. But the rate is insane, so we have to do something.",
"start_ms": 8889287,
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8388450": [
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"text": "So it, it kind of gonna...",
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"text": "Yeah, finance is completely irrelevant.",
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{
"text": "And, and then finance is dead last. Yeah, finance is completely irrelevant.",
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"text": "some knowledge in that. And, and then finance is dead last. Yeah, finance is completely irrelevant.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4789932": [
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"text": "Yeah, the, the Dyson Swarm is gonna be hundreds of trillions of dollars, and so it's, it's the fundamental investment vehicle for everyone's 401 plan, for everybody's retirement.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7587714": [
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"text": "Um, but yeah, facelift, facial, make it look younger, make it feel younger.",
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{
"text": "Facelift, I guess may- maybe that's a better analog. Um, but yeah, facelift, facial, make it look younger, make it feel younger.",
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{
"text": "Or a facelift. Facelift, I guess may- maybe that's a better analog. Um, but yeah, facelift, facial, make it look younger, make it feel younger.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5230276": [
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"text": "folks, uh, get- getting AI tutors and entrepreneurship and product, uh, ties learning, product, project-based learning.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6291536": [
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"text": "Yeah And let's, let's remember this, this data is, this data is biased.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5294036": [
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"text": "It's also gonna disrupt education.",
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{
"text": "Uh, uh, you know, I've been talking about, you know, AI's gonna disrupt healthcare, and it is doing so. It's also gonna disrupt education.",
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{
"text": "With- Gotcha HODL, yes. Uh, uh, you know, I've been talking about, you know, AI's gonna disrupt healthcare, and it is doing so. It's also gonna disrupt education.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6805922": [
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"text": "uh, at minimum, is that it would appear-- So th- this is an analysis of the, uh, o- of genomes of, and the proteomes of bacteria and archaea.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3604538": [
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"text": "But is that really like Gemini usage or is it just Gemini as a feature in Google search?",
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"text": "the Gemini one box in Google search all the time. But is that really like Gemini usage or is it just Gemini as a feature in Google search?",
"start_ms": 3604538,
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{
"text": "Like I use the-... the Gemini one box in Google search all the time. But is that really like Gemini usage or is it just Gemini as a feature in Google search?",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2067627": [
{
"text": "And again, this is the first open-weight model on your computer in its ability to break out.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_645424": [
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"text": "Um, there, there, there's I think a broader point about governance, though, uh, which is I, I think fundamentally governing via society scale simulation is a new form of government that Earth has not seen historically yet.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3983790": [
{
"text": "when they basically bought YouTube and displaced Google Video because the lawyers were too involved in what videos you could show and not show.",
"start_ms": 3983840,
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{
"text": "they did that with, with, uh, Google Video-... when they basically bought YouTube and displaced Google Video because the lawyers were too involved in what videos you could show and not show.",
"start_ms": 3981000,
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{
"text": "Listen, they did that, Alex-... they did that with, with, uh, Google Video-... when they basically bought YouTube and displaced Google Video because the lawyers were too involved in what videos you could show and not show.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8218200": [
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"text": "I, I think we need the pressure to make sure our robots are competitive for Europe, for Asia, for Africa, um, and it's not just, uh, protectionist pricing and so forth.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. I, I think we need the pressure to make sure our robots are competitive for Europe, for Asia, for Africa, um, and it's not just, uh, protectionist pricing and so forth.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7726934": [
{
"text": "that's, that's why I thought facial was a better analogy.",
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{
"text": "And so we basically, we, we focus the energy back on the sun, and we use it to sort of evaporate away, uh, to ablate stellar matter, and this will extend- It is a laser fa-... that's, that's why I thought facial was a better analogy.",
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"text": "Oh, wait a minute.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_764936": [
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"text": "Um, you know, we talk about emergence as a phenomena, right?",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1855748": [
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"text": "And so that's a massive shift happening.",
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"text": "And you need to, we need to build totally new interfaces between all of our businesses and the subjectic world. And so that's a massive shift happening.",
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{
"text": "book,'cause it lays out exactly what, uh, an interface looks like. And you need to, we need to build totally new interfaces between all of our businesses and the subjectic world. And so that's a massive shift happening.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5204396": [
{
"text": "There's two things.",
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{
"text": "Uh, I do think we're gonna have... There's two things.",
"start_ms": 5203596,
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{
"text": "It's gotta be pervasive and kind of start to become invisible across lots of things. Uh, I do think we're gonna have... There's two things.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5828604": [
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"text": "of p- you have a sunk cost bias, and you naturally go, everybody should be a PhD, so I just wanna honor you, Alex, for being able to lift up and go, \"No, you shouldn't do it,\" or for whatever your, uh, version is. We, we got that.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6707902": [
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"text": "And the second is, can we preserve, uh, life or a life-friendly environment here on Earth past a billion years when the sun's increasing luminosity will fry the Earth?",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_878556": [
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"text": "Actually, you know, during Kush's, uh, tenure as a venture capitalist at Link Ventures, one of the deals he did was a company called Aaru, A-A-R-U, Aaru.",
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"text": "Too late. Actually, you know, during Kush's, uh, tenure as a venture capitalist at Link Ventures, one of the deals he did was a company called Aaru, A-A-R-U, Aaru.",
"start_ms": 870276,
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"text": "Yep. Too late. Actually, you know, during Kush's, uh, tenure as a venture capitalist at Link Ventures, one of the deals he did was a company called Aaru, A-A-R-U, Aaru.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7878958": [
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"text": "The timescale, I, uh, maybe just c- comment on the timescales.",
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4248860": [
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"text": "And then if they get more efficient, that means the compute will be cheaper.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_3548968": [
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"text": "Instead, they're computing.",
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{
"text": "I think there's every indication that Google has lost the frontier race, and so they can't compete. Instead, they're computing.",
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{
"text": "Pro, which was due for announcement, is being abandoned, and Google is instead, uh, hoping to, to recover its footing with Gemini 4. I think there's every indication that Google has lost the frontier race, and so they can't compete. Instead, they're computing.",
"start_ms": 3532448,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_610864": [
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"text": "So you're basically, you're, you're- Well, some of us.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_7353796": [
{
"text": "But yeah, you know, you- And bring up many more.",
"start_ms": 7353366,
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{
"text": "That, this is gonna answer so many questions like this. But yeah, you know, you- And bring up many more.",
"start_ms": 7350546,
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{
"text": "I am so excited. That, this is gonna answer so many questions like this. But yeah, you know, you- And bring up many more.",
"start_ms": 7349506,
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8135310": [
{
"text": "we want to be in the US.",
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{
"text": "Uh, I, I don't think that's a position that-... we want to be in the US.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_538824": [
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"text": "Is this Asimov's psychohistory from the Foundation series and the ability to model everything?",
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"text": "Uh, you know, Alex, you and I have discussed this before. Is this Asimov's psychohistory from the Foundation series and the ability to model everything?",
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"text": "You know, are, are, are we in a simulation of a massive AI model? Uh, you know, Alex, you and I have discussed this before. Is this Asimov's psychohistory from the Foundation series and the ability to model everything?",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_578004": [
{
"text": "talk about tr- trot out the simulation hypothesis, even though m- my best guess at this point is that simulation hypothesis will, for a variety of reasons, end up being formally undecidable and probably won't make much of a difference anyway.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2861896": [
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"text": "before they're allowed N-not a sponsor of this pod.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_4236500": [
{
"text": "It's almost been a year.",
"start_ms": 4220280,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. It's almost been a year.",
"start_ms": 4219680,
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},
{
"text": "Officially, uh, yeah, officially September 15th. Yeah. It's almost been a year.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_1647073": [
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"text": "Like right now, while models-- Like, this is the, the weakest models we'll ever be probably.",
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{
"text": "And the reason is because the models are getting so strong. Like right now, while models-- Like, this is the, the weakest models we'll ever be probably.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. And the reason is because the models are getting so strong. Like right now, while models-- Like, this is the, the weakest models we'll ever be probably.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_6258426": [
{
"text": "I'm really excited by the fact that people, increasingly big companies are not hiring based on college degrees, and that's really, really exciting.",
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{
"text": "And so this is going to, uh, force changes. I'm really excited by the fact that people, increasingly big companies are not hiring based on college degrees, and that's really, really exciting.",
"start_ms": 6242164,
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{
"text": "\"and the people who can validate them,\" right? And so this is going to, uh, force changes. I'm really excited by the fact that people, increasingly big companies are not hiring based on college degrees, and that's really, really exciting.",
"start_ms": 6240044,
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"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_8113338": [
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"text": "And I, I think glass half full, well, maybe this enables, hopefully fosters a vibrant US robotics industry that, say, enables us to be more competitive with the 150 plus humanoid robot companies that live out of China.",
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"text": "their hardware embodiments. And I, I think glass half full, well, maybe this enables, hopefully fosters a vibrant US robotics industry that, say, enables us to be more competitive with the 150 plus humanoid robot companies that live out of China.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_843926": [
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"text": "You get some really interesting feedback from that.",
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{
"text": "And i- imagine you're a company and you can suddenly have, uh, a, a hundred million synthetic customers looking at your product, right? You get some really interesting feedback from that.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_2483742": [
{
"text": "Every night from 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM, we just run it- Yes, pull request.",
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],
"sergey_brin_retakes_gemini_4_labs_lose_containment_compute_t_5751604": [
{
"text": "My plan for PhDs is in an era when you can just bulk solve entire disciplines, you should get a one-month PhD.",
"start_ms": 5743173,
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{
"text": "I also have a plan to, to fix research universities. My plan for PhDs is in an era when you can just bulk solve entire disciplines, you should get a one-month PhD.",
"start_ms": 5740884,
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{
"text": "However, I, I have a plan to fix PhDs. I also have a plan to, to fix research universities. My plan for PhDs is in an era when you can just bulk solve entire disciplines, you should get a one-month PhD.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_79200": [
{
"text": "Welcome to Moonshots, everyone, your number one podcast on all things AI and exponential, your front row seat to the extraordinary singularity that is happening right now.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4281516": [
{
"text": "So the H100 is a three-year-old GPU, uh, and by every standard depreciation schedule on Wall Street, it should be worth a fraction of its original launch price.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1571844": [
{
"text": "I'm not sure I buy that as a good enough safety net for, for our conversation here.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6981030": [
{
"text": "Dave, do you remember our conversation with Elon? Yeah Yeah.",
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{
"text": "15% GDP growth. Dave, do you remember our conversation with Elon? Yeah Yeah.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6855410": [
{
"text": "So, uh, you know, the economy is set to skyrocket, and there's one company that sits at the center of it.",
"start_ms": 6879230,
"lead_ms": 7480
},
{
"text": "Our next story I wanna dive into is, uh, about GDP growth, uh, and it's, uh, it's impressive. So, uh, you know, the economy is set to skyrocket, and there's one company that sits at the center of it.",
"start_ms": 6869930,
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{
"text": "Look forward to meeting you. Our next story I wanna dive into is, uh, about GDP growth, uh, and it's, uh, it's impressive. So, uh, you know, the economy is set to skyrocket, and there's one company that sits at the center of it.",
"start_ms": 6868850,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4880288": [
{
"text": "may I just add one thing quickly there?",
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{
"text": "Yeah, if I-... may I just add one thing quickly there?",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8118866": [
{
"text": "Um, uh, Google DeepMind launched Alpha Genome Atlas.",
"start_ms": 8137756,
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{
"text": "All right, move us to our second story in this field. Um, uh, Google DeepMind launched Alpha Genome Atlas.",
"start_ms": 8134776,
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},
{
"text": "Amazing. All right, move us to our second story in this field. Um, uh, Google DeepMind launched Alpha Genome Atlas.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4837268": [
{
"text": "Plus, where you could generate potentially 30 seconds or minutes of Hollywood-grade video.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6059260": [
{
"text": "Like, you've got a former prime minister and the most AI-connected person in the UK, and the UK can't get these model weights?",
"start_ms": 6079080,
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{
"text": "Like, how crazy is that? Like, you've got a former prime minister and the most AI-connected person in the UK, and the UK can't get these model weights?",
"start_ms": 6077520,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1128472": [
{
"text": "Uh, this is his charge.",
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{
"text": "Uh, Jacob, uh, Coxen, a researcher who spent three years on pre-training both OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned this week. Uh, this is his charge.",
"start_ms": 1169812,
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},
{
"text": "So on the slide here is a tweet. Uh, Jacob, uh, Coxen, a researcher who spent three years on pre-training both OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned this week. Uh, this is his charge.",
"start_ms": 1167252,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7892878": [
{
"text": "Uh, the analysis of Phase 2A trials found that six different protein-based aging clocks are all pointing the same direction.",
"start_ms": 7884098,
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},
{
"text": "Second, uh, this is the one that made me really sit up. Uh, the analysis of Phase 2A trials found that six different protein-based aging clocks are all pointing the same direction.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8169506": [
{
"text": "Now the answer is already in this lookup table from, uh, from Google DeepMind.",
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{
"text": "Until now, when a patient showed up with a mutation nobody had seen before, the doctor had to guess whether it mattered. Now the answer is already in this lookup table from, uh, from Google DeepMind.",
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{
"text": "That's over nine billion variants. Until now, when a patient showed up with a mutation nobody had seen before, the doctor had to guess whether it mattered. Now the answer is already in this lookup table from, uh, from Google DeepMind.",
"start_ms": 8167486,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_986392": [
{
"text": "And but there, you know, the, the point that came across is that the, the foundation model companies are not trying to kill you.",
"start_ms": 997382,
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{
"text": "He's in some Midwestern state, I think it was, or Southern state. And but there, you know, the, the point that came across is that the, the foundation model companies are not trying to kill you.",
"start_ms": 994512,
"lead_ms": 9160
},
{
"text": "The guy's already in contact with OpenAI. He's in some Midwestern state, I think it was, or Southern state. And but there, you know, the, the point that came across is that the, the foundation model companies are not trying to kill you.",
"start_ms": 992292,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1545544": [
{
"text": "have ample evidence that if we lived in a universe where p were anywhere close to 10%, that we would just be awash with p-probably von Neumann probes disassembling Earth from alien civilizations millions or billions of years ago.",
"start_ms": 1534644,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7202850": [
{
"text": "Now we've got this incredible capability.",
"start_ms": 7225550,
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},
{
"text": "And, and so now we're like, well, wait a minute. Now we've got this incredible capability.",
"start_ms": 7223870,
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},
{
"text": "And the idea list is bad, but that's because it's been trained on, you know, all the junk on the internet. And, and so now we're like, well, wait a minute. Now we've got this incredible capability.",
"start_ms": 7218210,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4608952": [
{
"text": "This is ByteDance jumping in with the founders-- with the founder leading the effort, right?",
"start_ms": 4643962,
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},
{
"text": "Remember way, way long ago, I think it was last week, we covered Fei-Fei Li's Atlas world model. This is ByteDance jumping in with the founders-- with the founder leading the effort, right?",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1605684": [
{
"text": "may be overrated, at least the risk of doom is overrated.",
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7664148": [
{
"text": "And it's-- And they find the way inside Anthropic.",
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},
{
"text": "Okay, the simple resolution is if you're that abundant in a thirty trillion dollar growth TAM, find a way to not do that, and otherwise we're not gonna allow it. And it's-- And they find the way inside Anthropic.",
"start_ms": 7671328,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6912410": [
{
"text": "They put forward three scenarios.",
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},
{
"text": "But here's the part that matters more: Anthropic published its own economic impact report, the one -- and this one showed IPO investors, uh, that they're part of a $30 trillion total addressable market. They put forward three scenarios.",
"start_ms": 6926610,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2599700": [
{
"text": "I know exactly how to do it.",
"start_ms": 2623460,
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},
{
"text": "There has to be a practical real world way to get that P doom down to zero, and there is. I know exactly how to do it.",
"start_ms": 2616900,
"lead_ms": 8240
},
{
"text": "Get it through your head that it's not gonna stop. There has to be a practical real world way to get that P doom down to zero, and there is. I know exactly how to do it.",
"start_ms": 2614880,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9254254": [
{
"text": "Uh, I, I will pick question number seven.",
"start_ms": 9257013,
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},
{
"text": "There are so many good questions here. Uh, I, I will pick question number seven.",
"start_ms": 9254894,
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},
{
"text": "Okay. There are so many good questions here. Uh, I, I will pick question number seven.",
"start_ms": 9254254,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2893520": [
{
"text": "We've been talking a lot about the need to pace progress to ensure safety.",
"start_ms": 2893520,
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},
{
"text": "I did not expect a result of this magnitude to happen so soon. We've been talking a lot about the need to pace progress to ensure safety.",
"start_ms": 2889800,
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},
{
"text": "\"The world has extremely capable models now. I did not expect a result of this magnitude to happen so soon. We've been talking a lot about the need to pace progress to ensure safety.",
"start_ms": 2884740,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7990638": [
{
"text": "So l- let me just spell that out.",
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{
"text": "The peak effect on these biological clocks kicked in at week four, and at week four, they saw, according to these proteomic, uh, aging clocks, three to four years of biological age reversal. So l- let me just spell that out.",
"start_ms": 7993538,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1843260": [
{
"text": "It's like we've had AI become a Nazi, you know, with Tay, unfortunately, when she was allowed on the internet.",
"start_ms": 1858180,
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},
{
"text": "And right now, if you have a mirror of humans, then the Germans are the most sensible people on Earth, and they became Nazis. It's like we've had AI become a Nazi, you know, with Tay, unfortunately, when she was allowed on the internet.",
"start_ms": 1851000,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4659292": [
{
"text": "You know, when a founder worth tens of billions of dollars personally takes over a project, that tells you something.",
"start_ms": 4659292,
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},
{
"text": "They're targeting robotics, autonomous systems, games, and virtual worlds. You know, when a founder worth tens of billions of dollars personally takes over a project, that tells you something.",
"start_ms": 4655132,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1619724": [
{
"text": "I, I would go even further.",
"start_ms": 1621144,
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},
{
"text": "Does it mean- There are so many benchmarks. I, I would go even further.",
"start_ms": 1616654,
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},
{
"text": "What does alignment even mean? Does it mean- There are so many benchmarks. I, I would go even further.",
"start_ms": 1615324,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3209216": [
{
"text": "You raise, you raise billions of dollars.",
"start_ms": 3219916,
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},
{
"text": "Let me get this straight. You raise, you raise billions of dollars.",
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},
{
"text": "This, this is, this I find to be ridiculous, okay? Let me get this straight. You raise, you raise billions of dollars.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5339060": [
{
"text": "Uh, again, a- as with so many things in the middle of a singularity, I don't think this, call it an HBM overhang or a v- post-von Neumann overhang, is sustainable.",
"start_ms": 5353790,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4787481": [
{
"text": "I think the end game is robotics.",
"start_ms": 4791952,
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{
"text": "I think you'll see far more video gen out of China, but that's not the end game. I think the end game is robotics.",
"start_ms": 4787481,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_969132": [
{
"text": "Salim, for all the accountants out there, you want to start a special practice?",
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{
"text": "So, so this-... Salim, for all the accountants out there, you want to start a special practice?",
"start_ms": 969132,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4677672": [
{
"text": "Again, it's like how do you understand the world?",
"start_ms": 4690812,
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},
{
"text": "So what's the biggest thing in the world? Again, it's like how do you understand the world?",
"start_ms": 4689192,
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{
"text": "Like the SeaDance models are crazy, Hollywood level, and they are accurate. So what's the biggest thing in the world? Again, it's like how do you understand the world?",
"start_ms": 4683372,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7242050": [
{
"text": "And the list is actually pretty bad, and that creates the role, like, the, the role in this GDP explosion that needs to be filled right now is that, that role.",
"start_ms": 7260870,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8284245": [
{
"text": "This is the bulk solution for now all of variant effect prediction.",
"start_ms": 8284245,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4513992": [
{
"text": "They are a means of transforming electricity into intelligence, right?",
"start_ms": 4536232,
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{
"text": "These are the chip in question. They are a means of transforming electricity into intelligence, right?",
"start_ms": 4533512,
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{
"text": "You know, we got some of the first Hoppers when I was at Stability. These are the chip in question. They are a means of transforming electricity into intelligence, right?",
"start_ms": 4530952,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6127870": [
{
"text": "It's, you know, the, the accusations are more or less contrived, and the withholding and the reasons for it are more or less contrived.",
"start_ms": 6134840,
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{
"text": "Yeah, I mean, I think, Peter, your, your take on it, I think, is exactly right. It's, you know, the, the accusations are more or less contrived, and the withholding and the reasons for it are more or less contrived.",
"start_ms": 6131700,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7525958": [
{
"text": "It's just the economic disruption.",
"start_ms": 7532478,
"lead_ms": 2210
},
{
"text": "I propose my champion mechanism, UBI and others. It's just the economic disruption.",
"start_ms": 7529778,
"lead_ms": 4910
},
{
"text": "And again, there's mechanisms. I propose my champion mechanism, UBI and others. It's just the economic disruption.",
"start_ms": 7528558,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5220920": [
{
"text": "So they're basically routing around the HBM memory that is so ridiculously expensive, moving things onto the SSDs like a lookup table, this Ngram lookup, and onto DDR memory.",
"start_ms": 5254740,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2096199": [
{
"text": "Um, the w- I have a couple of kind of spiritual advisor types, and they're always asking me an interesting question: \"What's your, what's, what's in, what's HBI?\" I'm like: HBI?",
"start_ms": 2099460,
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},
{
"text": "Do you go with humanity's long-term interests, right? Um, the w- I have a couple of kind of spiritual advisor types, and they're always asking me an interesting question: \"What's your, what's, what's in, what's HBI?\" I'm like: HBI?",
"start_ms": 2096199,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3883944": [
{
"text": "You, uh, you and Dave have been living it for 30 years.",
"start_ms": 3893304,
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},
{
"text": "Alex, you've been living it. You, uh, you and Dave have been living it for 30 years.",
"start_ms": 3891924,
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{
"text": "We've been talking about this f- you know, Peter, you and I have been talking about this for 20 years. Alex, you've been living it. You, uh, you and Dave have been living it for 30 years.",
"start_ms": 3888144,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7765538": [
{
"text": "So, um, quick context.",
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{
"text": "It was, uh, you know, after AI, it was voted by our AMA survey as the second most important topic they want us to talk about, which is health and longevity, and a few really important conversations came out this past week. So, um, quick context.",
"start_ms": 7772418,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1891560": [
{
"text": "Like, it's gonna be nothing like we've ever seen before.",
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3567040": [
{
"text": "Five hundred thousand dollars being reduced to twenty bucks is, in two years, is a twenty-five thousand, uh, times cost collapse.",
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{
"text": "You know, think about what that means. Five hundred thousand dollars being reduced to twenty bucks is, in two years, is a twenty-five thousand, uh, times cost collapse.",
"start_ms": 3597760,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7429198": [
{
"text": "Um, there was a letter that came out earlier saying this will be as big as a pandemic.",
"start_ms": 7437098,
"lead_ms": 3380
},
{
"text": "So I think that- I, I, I think right now what it is, is COVID had one of the biggest redistributions of capital so quickly ever. Um, there was a letter that came out earlier saying this will be as big as a pandemic.",
"start_ms": 7427418,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7344310": [
{
"text": "We need to catch them.",
"start_ms": 7391798,
"lead_ms": 2040
},
{
"text": "Think about the real human side of that, right? We need to catch them.",
"start_ms": 7389878,
"lead_ms": 3960
},
{
"text": "Think about how ugly they... Think about the real human side of that, right? We need to catch them.",
"start_ms": 7388818,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7292310": [
{
"text": "I think the more likely one though is that we fritter away all this intelligence on arcane wings, uh, and we don't point it in exactly the right directions.",
"start_ms": 7286600,
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},
{
"text": "And obviously, bad actors, global terrorism, that would be one way that this could not happen. I think the more likely one though is that we fritter away all this intelligence on arcane wings, uh, and we don't point it in exactly the right directions.",
"start_ms": 7282330,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8414566": [
{
"text": "And Alex, yours as well.",
"start_ms": 8421086,
"lead_ms": 1000
},
{
"text": "Uh, so Dave, if you're around, uh, that, that, uh, day as I'll be up in, in our-- in your neck of the woods. And Alex, yours as well.",
"start_ms": 8414566,
"lead_ms": 7520
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{
"text": "I'll be with him on, uh, October the th- the fourth at his event for the Sinclair Labs up at Harvard. Uh, so Dave, if you're around, uh, that, that, uh, day as I'll be up in, in our-- in your neck of the woods. And Alex, yours as well.",
"start_ms": 8406626,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8598074": [
{
"text": "And so if you're, if you're looking at what Alex said earlier, where, wow, there'll be many of these, he's right.",
"start_ms": 8627974,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1077972": [
{
"text": "And it did for about five minutes, maybe a few months, until the next generation of frontier models trained off of public data and presumably whatever non-public...",
"start_ms": 1067472,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_488820": [
{
"text": "So the answer, better data produces 12X improvement in compute efficiency.",
"start_ms": 483000,
"lead_ms": 5820
},
{
"text": "We've talked so much about the value of data on this pod. So the answer, better data produces 12X improvement in compute efficiency.",
"start_ms": 479520,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2656380": [
{
"text": "Put that into the orange- So, you know, when you've got a, when you've got a, uh, you know, an Earth-destroying asteroid moving towards the planet, uh, and you, you see it coming, you don't try and stop it in its tracks.",
"start_ms": 2656380,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3810304": [
{
"text": "It's not the applied, right?",
"start_ms": 3814364,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, I mean, I think it's the foundational fundamental sciences. It's not the applied, right?",
"start_ms": 3810304,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5490580": [
{
"text": "It's think in a really, really small box.",
"start_ms": 5512640,
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},
{
"text": "There's the old saying, you know, think out of the box, but that's the wrong approach. It's think in a really, really small box.",
"start_ms": 5509600,
"lead_ms": 5580
},
{
"text": "And as we're putting restrictions on China, it's just forcing their entrepreneurs, uh, to engineer around it, right? There's the old saying, you know, think out of the box, but that's the wrong approach. It's think in a really, really small box.",
"start_ms": 5503290,
"lead_ms": 11890
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6038120": [
{
"text": "Um, we have Matt Clifford, who was the head of the AI task force.",
"start_ms": 6039300,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, this is a surprise. Um, we have Matt Clifford, who was the head of the AI task force.",
"start_ms": 6038120,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5710990": [
{
"text": "And on the other benchmarks like Terminal Bench three, it's actually above as well.",
"start_ms": 5722680,
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{
"text": "So DeepSeek has just killed everything below that on the day-to-day stuff. And on the other benchmarks like Terminal Bench three, it's actually above as well.",
"start_ms": 5717420,
"lead_ms": 8740
},
{
"text": "look at where, look at where Kimi K three is on this chart. So DeepSeek has just killed everything below that on the day-to-day stuff. And on the other benchmarks like Terminal Bench three, it's actually above as well.",
"start_ms": 5712980,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6232780": [
{
"text": "I, I can think of, um, like, botanical, uh, directed evolution.",
"start_ms": 6233940,
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},
{
"text": "I can think of a few. I, I can think of, um, like, botanical, uh, directed evolution.",
"start_ms": 6232780,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5541060": [
{
"text": "But the transformer architecture, the attention mechanism, was only invented in twenty seventeen.",
"start_ms": 5553480,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7647858": [
{
"text": "I think we have a great case study with the, you know, the data center revolution where everyone was like, \"Well, this is gonna drive up the cost of power in my neighborhood.",
"start_ms": 7647858,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3511170": [
{
"text": "You know, you've got thousands of agents, tens of thousands of agents, and you're spending millions of dollars.",
"start_ms": 3533140,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3175896": [
{
"text": "Yeah, I'm thinking.",
"start_ms": 3176326,
"lead_ms": 1650
},
{
"text": "fixed it. Yeah, I'm thinking.",
"start_ms": 3175356,
"lead_ms": 2620
},
{
"text": "Like I was messaging with Noam Brown, who's kind of next up, and he's like, you know, \"They're still dumb in some ways,\" but they'll fix that personality disorder, just like Fable 5.1 fixed it. Yeah, I'm thinking.",
"start_ms": 3166536,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4434692": [
{
"text": "Uh, this is scarcity in the abundant space, which means a lot of solutions are coming our way.",
"start_ms": 4435472,
"lead_ms": 5100
},
{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, this is scarcity in the abundant space, which means a lot of solutions are coming our way.",
"start_ms": 4434692,
"lead_ms": 5880
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1485244": [
{
"text": "So, you know, I, I think this is under the category of n-newsflash, dog bites man.",
"start_ms": 1507324,
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},
{
"text": "And then we get to the Anthropic story. So, you know, I, I think this is under the category of n-newsflash, dog bites man.",
"start_ms": 1505454,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5184340": [
{
"text": "But, uh, Imad, uh, gave me two charts I'm gonna share with you guys.",
"start_ms": 5187080,
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},
{
"text": "I promise I will-- I'll take a nap later. But, uh, Imad, uh, gave me two charts I'm gonna share with you guys.",
"start_ms": 5184340,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9069686": [
{
"text": "So WackyIraqi, the answer is we know the answer.",
"start_ms": 9080576,
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},
{
"text": "And this is from, I kid you not, TheWackyIraqi. So WackyIraqi, the answer is we know the answer.",
"start_ms": 9076886,
"lead_ms": 8280
},
{
"text": "What benchmarks should we use? And this is from, I kid you not, TheWackyIraqi. So WackyIraqi, the answer is we know the answer.",
"start_ms": 9075366,
"lead_ms": 9800
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1348232": [
{
"text": "We don't want this technology to stop.",
"start_ms": 1365932,
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},
{
"text": "And then there's a question of, well, what's the flip side? We don't want this technology to stop.",
"start_ms": 1362992,
"lead_ms": 4200
},
{
"text": "You're gonna see massively well-funded entities to the billions of dollars pushing that as well. And then there's a question of, well, what's the flip side? We don't want this technology to stop.",
"start_ms": 1357072,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2242132": [
{
"text": "They need to call it.",
"start_ms": 2252802,
"lead_ms": 1050
},
{
"text": "And just to be very clear, and, uh, I think what needs to happen is that the AI labs need to come forward with their plan very publicly on what they're going to do to enable alignment. They need to call it.",
"start_ms": 2238172,
"lead_ms": 15680
},
{
"text": "see a lot of regulatory pushback here. And just to be very clear, and, uh, I think what needs to happen is that the AI labs need to come forward with their plan very publicly on what they're going to do to enable alignment. They need to call it.",
"start_ms": 2233932,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2465112": [
{
"text": "And, and your thesis, Peter, I think is that that is false.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6372260": [
{
"text": "But, uh, I, I think all of this, like a lot of the governance is getting privatized.",
"start_ms": 6377350,
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},
{
"text": "This is right up there with Eliezer threatening, you know, to, to bomb data centers from orbit. But, uh, I, I think all of this, like a lot of the governance is getting privatized.",
"start_ms": 6372260,
"lead_ms": 8670
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2694240": [
{
"text": "I, I think super intelligence becomes i- in the limit un- indistinguishable from capital.",
"start_ms": 2696280,
"lead_ms": 4860
},
{
"text": "This is capital. I, I think super intelligence becomes i- in the limit un- indistinguishable from capital.",
"start_ms": 2695420,
"lead_ms": 5720
},
{
"text": "premise of this analogy- This is economic growth. This is capital. I, I think super intelligence becomes i- in the limit un- indistinguishable from capital.",
"start_ms": 2688240,
"lead_ms": 12900
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5730860": [
{
"text": "I, I think there's an even more scandalous point on this scatter plot for, for those who can't see it.",
"start_ms": 5730860,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5839030": [
{
"text": "That ratio, by the way, seems to be pretty constant.",
"start_ms": 5839580,
"lead_ms": 2260
},
{
"text": "Totally right. That ratio, by the way, seems to be pretty constant.",
"start_ms": 5839030,
"lead_ms": 2810
},
{
"text": "Crazy. Totally right. That ratio, by the way, seems to be pretty constant.",
"start_ms": 5825680,
"lead_ms": 16160
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2386372": [
{
"text": "Like again, now that we've talked about literally on this pod, everyone is now starting to hoard intelligence, hoard models.",
"start_ms": 2389332,
"lead_ms": 6240
},
{
"text": "a false radar signal and not kick off the World-- Cold War. Like again, now that we've talked about literally on this pod, everyone is now starting to hoard intelligence, hoard models.",
"start_ms": 2386432,
"lead_ms": 9140
},
{
"text": "some nukes when there was a fake-... a false radar signal and not kick off the World-- Cold War. Like again, now that we've talked about literally on this pod, everyone is now starting to hoard intelligence, hoard models.",
"start_ms": 2380852,
"lead_ms": 14720
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_783452": [
{
"text": "So these are not core AI researchers, and the, the meta point there is that don't be intimidated.",
"start_ms": 816982,
"lead_ms": 5130
},
{
"text": "Here we are a couple of months later, they wrote a paper together. So these are not core AI researchers, and the, the meta point there is that don't be intimidated.",
"start_ms": 814372,
"lead_ms": 7740
},
{
"text": "And he just randomly rang his doorbell and had a meeting with him. Here we are a couple of months later, they wrote a paper together. So these are not core AI researchers, and the, the meta point there is that don't be intimidated.",
"start_ms": 811072,
"lead_ms": 11040
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2514332": [
{
"text": "I mean, so I, I think, I forget whether we talked about this in past.",
"start_ms": 2519672,
"lead_ms": 2840
},
{
"text": "We're, we're pretty close. I mean, so I, I think, I forget whether we talked about this in past.",
"start_ms": 2518912,
"lead_ms": 3600
},
{
"text": "Yeah. We're, we're pretty close. I mean, so I, I think, I forget whether we talked about this in past.",
"start_ms": 2518812,
"lead_ms": 3700
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3863564": [
{
"text": "Uh, I, I think we, I think we need to retire this whole idea of things are moving faster than we are ex-- uh, than we expect, right?",
"start_ms": 3867873,
"lead_ms": 7271
},
{
"text": "You know, I, I haven't had my morning coffee, so I'm a little bit cranky, so let me just... Uh, I, I think we, I think we need to retire this whole idea of things are moving faster than we are ex-- uh, than we expect, right?",
"start_ms": 3863564,
"lead_ms": 11580
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7564838": [
{
"text": "Yep, so again, just, just start working on it now.",
"start_ms": 7564838,
"lead_ms": 2120
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1405412": [
{
"text": "Like, at least couch it like Jacob did in his kind of alien minds letter, you know?",
"start_ms": 1414612,
"lead_ms": 4520
},
{
"text": "Like, come on. Like, at least couch it like Jacob did in his kind of alien minds letter, you know?",
"start_ms": 1413992,
"lead_ms": 5140
},
{
"text": "Kill us all, we're gonna build it anyway. Like, come on. Like, at least couch it like Jacob did in his kind of alien minds letter, you know?",
"start_ms": 1412272,
"lead_ms": 6860
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2838280": [
{
"text": "Uh, a few days ago, OpenAI, you know, basically claimed a breakthrough on the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the seven hardest unsolved problems in mathematics, using a swarm of purportedly 10,000 AI agents.",
"start_ms": 2864180,
"lead_ms": 14760
},
{
"text": "All right, let's move on. Uh, a few days ago, OpenAI, you know, basically claimed a breakthrough on the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the seven hardest unsolved problems in mathematics, using a swarm of purportedly 10,000 AI agents.",
"start_ms": 2863170,
"lead_ms": 15770
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3074816": [
{
"text": "Uh, Emad, you predicted it way ahead of anybody else I heard.",
"start_ms": 3106936,
"lead_ms": 2980
},
{
"text": "Um, and y- we saw this with coding. Uh, Emad, you predicted it way ahead of anybody else I heard.",
"start_ms": 3104296,
"lead_ms": 5620
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3242456": [
{
"text": "Where, so we should create, if you're worried about slowdown, create incentive structures that reward people for slowing down.",
"start_ms": 3254436,
"lead_ms": 7640
},
{
"text": "Like, where is the institutional preparation to match, like, with the, the technical ambition? Where, so we should create, if you're worried about slowdown, create incentive structures that reward people for slowing down.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3987404": [
{
"text": "And that is, you know, yeah, a bit of an existential thing.",
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{
"text": "Now I'm like 100% all the models are smarter than me, and they will be able to ask better questions than me, I think, imminently. And that is, you know, yeah, a bit of an existential thing.",
"start_ms": 3995124,
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{
"text": "the models are getting smarter than me. Now I'm like 100% all the models are smarter than me, and they will be able to ask better questions than me, I think, imminently. And that is, you know, yeah, a bit of an existential thing.",
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"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4037284": [
{
"text": "I think we're not able to do that.",
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{
"text": "I think we have a huge digestion problem in collectively understanding and making sense of the biggest, uh, the implication of this. I think we're not able to do that.",
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{
"text": "Uh, except he's doing exactly the thing that we've been talking about. I think we have a huge digestion problem in collectively understanding and making sense of the biggest, uh, the implication of this. I think we're not able to do that.",
"start_ms": 4068346,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4457172": [
{
"text": "And you can see it.",
"start_ms": 4473272,
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},
{
"text": "Great, great theme. And you can see it.",
"start_ms": 4472012,
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{
"text": "And this is gonna be one of the cornerstones that anyone who's building data center, energy, anything related to compute, fabs, those are all going to near infinite demand. Great, great theme. And you can see it.",
"start_ms": 4462652,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6278440": [
{
"text": "And the Pax Silica, which is the, the State Department's effort to carve the world into spheres of influence at the chip layer, I think what we're seeing, it...",
"start_ms": 6296810,
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],
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{
"text": "These are just massively useful, actually just crunching through this because it just lowers the bar to access it for everyone.",
"start_ms": 8444706,
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{
"text": "I mean, I'm one of the authors on the OpenFold paper and, you know, been looking at this in depth. These are just massively useful, actually just crunching through this because it just lowers the bar to access it for everyone.",
"start_ms": 8440306,
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{
"text": "Yeah. I mean, I'm one of the authors on the OpenFold paper and, you know, been looking at this in depth. These are just massively useful, actually just crunching through this because it just lowers the bar to access it for everyone.",
"start_ms": 8440026,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8568474": [
{
"text": "You know, many years ago, I was walking through the streets of Cambridge with Noubar Afeyan.",
"start_ms": 8573214,
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{
"text": "Yeah, I just wanna make a narrow point for the biotech entrepreneurs out there. You know, many years ago, I was walking through the streets of Cambridge with Noubar Afeyan.",
"start_ms": 8568974,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2284752": [
{
"text": "I want to insert like one of those meme graphics, like the astronauts looking at Earth.",
"start_ms": 2321452,
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},
{
"text": "It always was. I want to insert like one of those meme graphics, like the astronauts looking at Earth.",
"start_ms": 2320752,
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},
{
"text": "Alignment is the same thing as capabilities. It always was. I want to insert like one of those meme graphics, like the astronauts looking at Earth.",
"start_ms": 2318252,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3329296": [
{
"text": "I think this is like we built an airplane and we haven't quite figured out the landing gear.",
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{
"text": "I don't, I don't agree with that. I think this is like we built an airplane and we haven't quite figured out the landing gear.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8478726": [
{
"text": "Uh, and, you know, don't sit back, don't wait for somebody else.",
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{
"text": "The probability that you can engineer a solution is, you know, to solve everything in, in Alex and my, uh, terminology here is, uh, is exploding. Uh, and, you know, don't sit back, don't wait for somebody else.",
"start_ms": 8490334,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2713940": [
{
"text": "Like, what's your experience?",
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{
"text": "my-- the people that I know in the big labs, actually you ask them their P doom, it is-- some of them are zero, but a lot of them are actually at 10% to 30% or higher. Like, what's your experience?",
"start_ms": 2714000,
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{
"text": "So-... my-- the people that I know in the big labs, actually you ask them their P doom, it is-- some of them are zero, but a lot of them are actually at 10% to 30% or higher. Like, what's your experience?",
"start_ms": 2713220,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6352660": [
{
"text": "Uh, I don't know if you remember Alexander Wang at Meta, and Eric Schmidt, and Dan Hendricks, um, had a super intelligent strategy where they had a strategy called MAIM, Mutual Assured AI Malfunction.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2182280": [
{
"text": "Number one- Um, my greatest hope for navigating this is going to be AI, uh, advising us and supporting us to navigate this.",
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{
"text": "Ag- agreed, but I have to say two things here, Salim. Number one- Um, my greatest hope for navigating this is going to be AI, uh, advising us and supporting us to navigate this.",
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],
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{
"text": "How do you make sure that it...",
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{
"text": "That seems to be the big challenge, right? How do you make sure that it...",
"start_ms": 2070440,
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{
"text": "A real problem seems to be alignment. That seems to be the big challenge, right? How do you make sure that it...",
"start_ms": 2067639,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8982366": [
{
"text": "Yeah, absolutely, and I, I really, really want people to not think of AI as being a single sentient mentality.",
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{
"text": "If AI is aligned with human values, could it conclude that war is an acceptable way to resolve conflict given our history of warfare? Yeah, absolutely, and I, I really, really want people to not think of AI as being a single sentient mentality.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9182966": [
{
"text": "So I would say robotic manipulation is, uh, at, at least for some version of robotic manipulation by generalist model, it's about to get saturated.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5437900": [
{
"text": "Well, let's put it this way.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1969250": [
{
"text": "They, the, nothing would change other than we're losing time, foreign governments are getting better, and you're still not doing anything.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2782860": [
{
"text": "So here we see on this chart, uh, you know, the real GDP per capita growth, um, over time between 1870 and today, and it's been on a exponential curve.",
"start_ms": 2792230,
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{
"text": "You choose, right? So here we see on this chart, uh, you know, the real GDP per capita growth, um, over time between 1870 and today, and it's been on a exponential curve.",
"start_ms": 2790740,
"lead_ms": 12180
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{
"text": "It says, uh, you know, uh, AI could end scarcity or end humanity. You choose, right? So here we see on this chart, uh, you know, the real GDP per capita growth, um, over time between 1870 and today, and it's been on a exponential curve.",
"start_ms": 2786120,
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"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3737004": [
{
"text": "I took the highest level foundation model.",
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{
"text": "But if you say, \"Here's Navier-Stokes. I took the highest level foundation model.",
"start_ms": 3732384,
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{
"text": "So people right now are stuck in this kind of copilot mindset. But if you say, \"Here's Navier-Stokes. I took the highest level foundation model.",
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"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4224676": [
{
"text": "That's what's important.",
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},
{
"text": "What can you build? That's what's important.",
"start_ms": 4238816,
"lead_ms": 1940
},
{
"text": "That's your new, your-- Well, used to be your GitHub repository, but you know, what do-- how do you think? What can you build? That's what's important.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5124468": [
{
"text": "I mean, this experiment of crowdsourcing, um, brilliant movies has fundamentally worked.",
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{
"text": "But they're so good. I mean, this experiment of crowdsourcing, um, brilliant movies has fundamentally worked.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5383240": [
{
"text": "What should get launched into space is gonna change, and the mass is gonna come way, way down.",
"start_ms": 5400040,
"lead_ms": 5120
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{
"text": "This completely changes, uh, what a data center should be built out of. What should get launched into space is gonna change, and the mass is gonna come way, way down.",
"start_ms": 5395180,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5451200": [
{
"text": "So if you alleviate the HBM bottleneck, and yeah, I don't know that anyone thoroughly understands this other than here, and also Elon gets it too.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5808060": [
{
"text": "We should sit down w- We should...",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9350674": [
{
"text": "Uh, you have to kind of separate those out.",
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{
"text": "So the concept of being alive or intelligent or consc-conscious or capable of suffering are very different concepts. Uh, you have to kind of separate those out.",
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{
"text": "You could pull power out of a robot, and it'll not be very happy about it. So the concept of being alive or intelligent or consc-conscious or capable of suffering are very different concepts. Uh, you have to kind of separate those out.",
"start_ms": 9387734,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9465314": [
{
"text": "And so the-- a lot of that is gonna happen.",
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{
"text": "Their-- The progress in AI is not gonna stop, and there's a lot of incentive to turn it loose to improve itself because that's a great way to make advancements in the technology. And so the-- a lot of that is gonna happen.",
"start_ms": 9496234,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9522714": [
{
"text": "And so, uh, then Alex, you know, posed the question on the last pod of, well, if we're looking into every, uh, activation and every thought that it's having, is that fair?",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8955606": [
{
"text": "There's a huge amount of-- You may have solved the invention problem, but now there's the engineering problem of how do you move this into the world in an effective way?",
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{
"text": "So you need to, uh, not just rest on the laurels of, oh, we've achieved AGI. There's a huge amount of-- You may have solved the invention problem, but now there's the engineering problem of how do you move this into the world in an effective way?",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_716232": [
{
"text": "And so when you think about it, what pre-training actually is, it's a pressure cooker.",
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{
"text": "every lab is doing is just this constant train to get the best input data, the general ingredients, and then what post-training is is the garnish. And so when you think about it, what pre-training actually is, it's a pressure cooker.",
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"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1639404": [
{
"text": "Again, we can say what the objective reality is, and we can discuss we'd be disassembled and all of this.",
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{
"text": "And I think that the people in the labs, they say 10%, they actually believe it is higher. Again, we can say what the objective reality is, and we can discuss we'd be disassembled and all of this.",
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"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1914520": [
{
"text": "As you say, Dave, how do we avoid swarms of quantized agents attacking our infrastructure?",
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"text": "And then as you said, practically, Alex, like, you know, how do we just avoid some of the bad stuff? As you say, Dave, how do we avoid swarms of quantized agents attacking our infrastructure?",
"start_ms": 1924880,
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{
"text": "We don't want to build a supervillain. And then as you said, practically, Alex, like, you know, how do we just avoid some of the bad stuff? As you say, Dave, how do we avoid swarms of quantized agents attacking our infrastructure?",
"start_ms": 1922840,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6164019": [
{
"text": "But it doesn't matter.",
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{
"text": "No. But it doesn't matter.",
"start_ms": 6171260,
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},
{
"text": "You know, I, I don't think using reasoning traces is-- Like, of all the things China's ever stolen from the US, is that even on the map? No. But it doesn't matter.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3683930": [
{
"text": "It's a very hard problem because we've never had that opportunity before.",
"start_ms": 3724444,
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{
"text": "And I keep asking people, entrepreneurs, \"If I gave you 100,000 genius level employees who will follow your exact marching orders tomorrow, what would you do with the human employees?\" It's a very hard problem because we've never had that opportunity before.",
"start_ms": 3714714,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4088876": [
{
"text": "We just lost an absolutely brilliant MIT guy who went off to get a Princeton PhD.",
"start_ms": 4084216,
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{
"text": "I n- I need to insert a selfish thing here. We just lost an absolutely brilliant MIT guy who went off to get a Princeton PhD.",
"start_ms": 4082476,
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{
"text": "I think we're not able to do that. I n- I need to insert a selfish thing here. We just lost an absolutely brilliant MIT guy who went off to get a Princeton PhD.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4895168": [
{
"text": "It set sort of, uh, agendas.",
"start_ms": 4912988,
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{
"text": "And that video content influenced billions of people. It set sort of, uh, agendas.",
"start_ms": 4909058,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7605278": [
{
"text": "That was my prediction. Yeah.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_265560": [
{
"text": "So we announced the deal yesterday.",
"start_ms": 290680,
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{
"text": "Now I'm still executive chairman and controlling shareholder. So we announced the deal yesterday.",
"start_ms": 287240,
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{
"text": "Uh, Vestmark's a company I founded in 2001, right after 9/11 actually, uh, and was CEO of for the first six years. Now I'm still executive chairman and controlling shareholder. So we announced the deal yesterday.",
"start_ms": 279100,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1183872": [
{
"text": "You know, they believe it's a catastrophic risk, and they're going for it full speed ahead.",
"start_ms": 1193792,
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"text": "His words, uh, \"The labs are pursuing it despite believing internally that sufficiently powerful systems could pose catastrophic risks.\" You know, they believe it's a catastrophic risk, and they're going for it full speed ahead.",
"start_ms": 1183872,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2545932": [
{
"text": "to, to me, the, the solutions seem so obvious, but I guess, um, like, like, you know, when somebody, a doomer who's an AI researcher who's only been there for three months comes out and gets three hundred million views Y- y- Alex is right.",
"start_ms": 2546172,
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{
"text": "Uh-... to, to me, the, the solutions seem so obvious, but I guess, um, like, like, you know, when somebody, a doomer who's an AI researcher who's only been there for three months comes out and gets three hundred million views Y- y- Alex is right.",
"start_ms": 2545172,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3765484": [
{
"text": "The, uh, the-- Everybody wants you to succeed in that mission.",
"start_ms": 3776544,
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},
{
"text": "And those, those, those targets are not cooked. The, uh, the-- Everybody wants you to succeed in that mission.",
"start_ms": 3773874,
"lead_ms": 6110
},
{
"text": "Yeah Yeah. And those, those, those targets are not cooked. The, uh, the-- Everybody wants you to succeed in that mission.",
"start_ms": 3772004,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5665940": [
{
"text": "This chart should be the wake-up call that, no, the Chinese versions of this are not falling behind.",
"start_ms": 5695040,
"lead_ms": 6200
},
{
"text": "Now you're behind again.\" This chart should be the wake-up call that, no, the Chinese versions of this are not falling behind.",
"start_ms": 5693420,
"lead_ms": 7820
},
{
"text": "Then immediately after that, Astra and Fable five point one came out, and they said, \"No, no, no. Now you're behind again.\" This chart should be the wake-up call that, no, the Chinese versions of this are not falling behind.",
"start_ms": 5689280,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7049210": [
{
"text": "Uh, for context, four point seven percent is more than double the long run US average.",
"start_ms": 7080190,
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},
{
"text": "You know, the drivers are strong consumer spending, uh, especially, you know, uh, in strong private investments. Uh, for context, four point seven percent is more than double the long run US average.",
"start_ms": 7073090,
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},
{
"text": "Second quarter is at one point five percent. You know, the drivers are strong consumer spending, uh, especially, you know, uh, in strong private investments. Uh, for context, four point seven percent is more than double the long run US average.",
"start_ms": 7070790,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8649954": [
{
"text": "And it, it's not, it's not just a lookup table, which requires, you know, just local tuning, local training on that data set, and lots and lots of phenotype or outcome data so they can interpolate between the different cases.",
"start_ms": 8638083,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9612038": [
{
"text": "It depends on its values, right?",
"start_ms": 9621378,
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},
{
"text": "From VME90Y71. It depends on its values, right?",
"start_ms": 9619018,
"lead_ms": 4029
},
{
"text": "Um, could AI agents start taking kickbacks soon? From VME90Y71. It depends on its values, right?",
"start_ms": 9616018,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2413322": [
{
"text": "being formed in Senate and Congress.",
"start_ms": 2419472,
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},
{
"text": "We're gonna have alignment committees-... being formed in Senate and Congress.",
"start_ms": 2417432,
"lead_ms": 4260
},
{
"text": "to, to face the future from. We're gonna have alignment committees-... being formed in Senate and Congress.",
"start_ms": 2415832,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4481572": [
{
"text": "But in, in this act, the flops, the tokens, and the outcomes, those are the commodities of this moment.",
"start_ms": 4498952,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2760330": [
{
"text": "I, I think that the premise is flawed.",
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{
"text": "I, I don't even think there's a pivotal act. I, I think that the premise is flawed.",
"start_ms": 2772880,
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},
{
"text": "Sure. I, I don't even think there's a pivotal act. I, I think that the premise is flawed.",
"start_ms": 2772460,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2934996": [
{
"text": "I, I do take Sam at his word.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, I take Sam- I know, I, you see singularities everywhere Singularities inside the singularities. I, I do take Sam at his word.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3368220": [
{
"text": "14 days from today is the big meeting with China at the United Nations building.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4975608": [
{
"text": "Now, no reason AI can't catch up to that, and the cheaper you can make video, the more you'll have video, more stories get told.",
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6205010": [
{
"text": "I mean, there's no, there's no good analogy in history.",
"start_ms": 6216240,
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},
{
"text": "Your, your-- Peter, your characterization is exactly right. I mean, there's no, there's no good analogy in history.",
"start_ms": 6202880,
"lead_ms": 15460
},
{
"text": "more than, more than, uh, you know, like, factual technical moves. Your, your-- Peter, your characterization is exactly right. I mean, there's no, there's no good analogy in history.",
"start_ms": 6198440,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6528150": [
{
"text": "We're g- I, I don't know whether it's Starship Troopers or whether these are like the uniforms from The Empire in Star Wars or, or some admixture, but, like, w- we're, we're getting, we're getting Starfleet Academy announced last week.",
"start_ms": 6540050,
"lead_ms": 12440
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7819878": [
{
"text": "Uh, Insilico's platform, Chemistry42, doesn't just screen existing molecules, it invents new ones, and they've got a new one, and it is the first longevity AI-designed drug.",
"start_ms": 7809338,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3616820": [
{
"text": "So, uh- Uh, uh, it, it, it's- So I mean, I just wanna-- when we say that, and people are hearing this idea that it's thoroughly cooked, I think it's very important, uh, to, to define what this means.",
"start_ms": 3616760,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7001170": [
{
"text": "Yeah, most of the-...",
"start_ms": 7002030,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. Yeah, most of the-...",
"start_ms": 7001170,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4405676": [
{
"text": "And so it's a big, big mistake for, for corporations to assume that they can do AI later.",
"start_ms": 4422796,
"lead_ms": 6280
},
{
"text": "You just can't get them. And so it's a big, big mistake for, for corporations to assume that they can do AI later.",
"start_ms": 4421356,
"lead_ms": 7720
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_6492050": [
{
"text": "So- So, uh, yeah. I've...",
"start_ms": 6491530,
"lead_ms": 2989
},
{
"text": "Yeah. So- So, uh, yeah. I've...",
"start_ms": 6491290,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2976166": [
{
"text": "These are all, I, I think, uh, finger to the wind, I, I think not as, not only is math cooked, I, I think the, the Clay Millennium- Yeah.",
"start_ms": 2967916,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_661280": [
{
"text": "Um, so it really doesn't matter what's in them.",
"start_ms": 693420,
"lead_ms": 2400
},
{
"text": "I remember when we trained Stable LM, one of the first open source big large language models, we had too much Reddit data and it broke the scaling curves because it turned a bit stupid and nasty. Um, so it really doesn't matter what's in them.",
"start_ms": 683220,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1737884": [
{
"text": "Y-yes, p is-- I, I think-- I don't think it's quite a fiction, but I think it's wildly overstated.",
"start_ms": 1747524,
"lead_ms": 6820
},
{
"text": "Like, yes, w-we want to continue accelerating. Y-yes, p is-- I, I think-- I don't think it's quite a fiction, but I think it's wildly overstated.",
"start_ms": 1744214,
"lead_ms": 10130
},
{
"text": "I don't buy any of this premise at all. Like, yes, w-we want to continue accelerating. Y-yes, p is-- I, I think-- I don't think it's quite a fiction, but I think it's wildly overstated.",
"start_ms": 1741704,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7095350": [
{
"text": "I, I think there is a universe in which real GDP or m-maybe even real GDP, not quite the right metric as Elon and others would remind us, real wealth growth, call it, is doubling or tripling year over year.",
"start_ms": 7111730,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9129646": [
{
"text": "As far as I can tell, just given the visual channel, the raw video frames, and access to the degrees of freedom of the robot arm, it is able to do things like picking blocks up and putting blocks inside cups.",
"start_ms": 9129646,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7545468": [
{
"text": "That's my biggest concern.",
"start_ms": 7556798,
"lead_ms": 2060
},
{
"text": "It doesn't take a lot of, it doesn't take a lot of hungry-- angry young men, uh, who haven't gotten a job, you know, can't afford a house and a car, can't get married, to start a revolution. That's my biggest concern.",
"start_ms": 7545468,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8815314": [
{
"text": "Yeah, you know, it's interesting.",
"start_ms": 8815314,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3903174": [
{
"text": "And st-start thinking in that frame, right?",
"start_ms": 3918904,
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],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2369312": [
{
"text": "And September 26th is Petrov Day.",
"start_ms": 2369452,
"lead_ms": 5640
},
{
"text": "So September 25th is the date of the conference. And September 26th is Petrov Day.",
"start_ms": 2366792,
"lead_ms": 8300
},
{
"text": "But I'd just like to kind of say one interesting thing. So September 25th is the date of the conference. And September 26th is Petrov Day.",
"start_ms": 2364812,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7632408": [
{
"text": "deflation and as we have massive, you know, AI and robotics, that's how we get to universal high income, where that amount of capital can get you everything you need, right?",
"start_ms": 7633647,
"lead_ms": 9571
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7477618": [
{
"text": "Dividends, sovereign wealth funds, UBE, UBI.",
"start_ms": 7514038,
"lead_ms": 3620
},
{
"text": "But we already have, to the extent that the capital means of production are still owned by humans, we already have many, many solutions over the past decades. Dividends, sovereign wealth funds, UBE, UBI.",
"start_ms": 7505898,
"lead_ms": 11760
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9408274": [
{
"text": "You kind of look at it and say, uh, update policy.",
"start_ms": 9425334,
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},
{
"text": "And so you end up with, uh, y-you end up with needing to calibrate that uncertainty, right? You kind of look at it and say, uh, update policy.",
"start_ms": 9419054,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3044256": [
{
"text": "Like, uh, the, the, it, if you look out on the street, you don't see humanoid robots.",
"start_ms": 3047656,
"lead_ms": 5440
},
{
"text": "if you, if you look out on the street right now, you don't see it. Like, uh, the, the, it, if you look out on the street, you don't see humanoid robots.",
"start_ms": 3044316,
"lead_ms": 8780
},
{
"text": "Uh, like you don't yet- If you look out on-... if you, if you look out on the street right now, you don't see it. Like, uh, the, the, it, if you look out on the street, you don't see humanoid robots.",
"start_ms": 3033316,
"lead_ms": 19780
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4387136": [
{
"text": "A GPU you bought a year ago or HBM memory you bought a year ago is up, like HBM's up five X in value, and I think that trend is likely to continue until at least the Terafab or many Tera fabs come online.",
"start_ms": 4374616,
"lead_ms": 12520
},
{
"text": "Now that has reversed for the first time in history. A GPU you bought a year ago or HBM memory you bought a year ago is up, like HBM's up five X in value, and I think that trend is likely to continue until at least the Terafab or many Tera fabs come online.",
"start_ms": 4371576,
"lead_ms": 15560
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4569092": [
{
"text": "And so this is why, because again, what they are is a means of transforming electricity into intelligence, and the amount of intelligence, the quality of intelligence has gone up exponentially.",
"start_ms": 4552942,
"lead_ms": 16150
},
{
"text": "It's better. And so this is why, because again, what they are is a means of transforming electricity into intelligence, and the amount of intelligence, the quality of intelligence has gone up exponentially.",
"start_ms": 4551812,
"lead_ms": 17280
},
{
"text": "It's cheaper. It's better. And so this is why, because again, what they are is a means of transforming electricity into intelligence, and the amount of intelligence, the quality of intelligence has gone up exponentially.",
"start_ms": 4551192,
"lead_ms": 17900
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1242352": [
{
"text": "You know, the people raising alarms are inside the building, and they're being heard.",
"start_ms": 1257012,
"lead_ms": 5200
},
{
"text": "So I'm gonna give this my optimistic read the best I can here, uh, of what it means. You know, the people raising alarms are inside the building, and they're being heard.",
"start_ms": 1252412,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5023728": [
{
"text": "You know, we talk about doom scrolling.",
"start_ms": 5043668,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9041266": [
{
"text": "Um, you know, I think the prompts we give our AI systems and our AI governance systems in the future are gonna be so important, right?",
"start_ms": 9047226,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8851934": [
{
"text": "So check out Fountain Life.",
"start_ms": 8856774,
"lead_ms": 1732
},
{
"text": "It's your obligation to know. So check out Fountain Life.",
"start_ms": 8854994,
"lead_ms": 3512
},
{
"text": "So at the end of the day, you can know what's going on inside your body. It's your obligation to know. So check out Fountain Life.",
"start_ms": 8852334,
"lead_ms": 6172
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7577898": [
{
"text": "I, I, I would just say I think the message has been received, uh, in all over the world, but es-especially in Western countries, including the US, where most of the capital is concentrating.",
"start_ms": 7577898,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3455140": [
{
"text": "I, I don't think th-this is a governance surprise.",
"start_ms": 3488120,
"lead_ms": 2620
},
{
"text": "So w-we've caught up. I, I don't think th-this is a governance surprise.",
"start_ms": 3486840,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5999680": [
{
"text": "We'll talk about that in a little bit.",
"start_ms": 6021070,
"lead_ms": 1950
},
{
"text": "So my read, uh, is less about safety and more about Washington, uh, with the US accusing China of industrial-scale theft. We'll talk about that in a little bit.",
"start_ms": 6013120,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7698418": [
{
"text": "You know, let's re- Let's remember, Dave, when Anthropic goes public at two trillion, the number of, uh, of billionaires inside Anthropic is going to explode.",
"start_ms": 7698418,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9312274": [
{
"text": "So you have some people spending compute cycles playing video games that simulate, say, the Middle Ages, and some of our civilization's compute cycles are spent discovering new drugs or maybe even discovering new physics.",
"start_ms": 9298794,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_937582": [
{
"text": "Um, and the outcome was that then they brought in, uh, their accounting firm over time to put a value on that subsidiary, which then sat on their balance sheet.",
"start_ms": 939332,
"lead_ms": 10360
},
{
"text": "Uh, yeah, and I won't say which one. Um, and the outcome was that then they brought in, uh, their accounting firm over time to put a value on that subsidiary, which then sat on their balance sheet.",
"start_ms": 937582,
"lead_ms": 12110
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1375222": [
{
"text": "But this is the only tweet, and all of a sudden it's caught like that, and we've never seen anything like that before.",
"start_ms": 1393272,
"lead_ms": 3840
},
{
"text": "Like, the guy's real. But this is the only tweet, and all of a sudden it's caught like that, and we've never seen anything like that before.",
"start_ms": 1391452,
"lead_ms": 5660
},
{
"text": "This account as well, this is its only tweet. Like, the guy's real. But this is the only tweet, and all of a sudden it's caught like that, and we've never seen anything like that before.",
"start_ms": 1388032,
"lead_ms": 9080
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8906166": [
{
"text": "So you need to, uh, not just rest on the laurels of, oh, we've achieved AGI.",
"start_ms": 8941986,
"lead_ms": 5680
},
{
"text": "Um, how do you integrate them into everyday life? So you need to, uh, not just rest on the laurels of, oh, we've achieved AGI.",
"start_ms": 8939866,
"lead_ms": 7800
},
{
"text": "Uh, uh, figuring out how to embody AIs is another piece of work as we're working with robots with forearms. Um, how do you integrate them into everyday life? So you need to, uh, not just rest on the laurels of, oh, we've achieved AGI.",
"start_ms": 8933746,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1093732": [
{
"text": "And I would generalize on, on that and say, look, any tech innovation that gets you on the map has a shelf life that's getting shorter by the minute.",
"start_ms": 1093912,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. And I would generalize on, on that and say, look, any tech innovation that gets you on the map has a shelf life that's getting shorter by the minute.",
"start_ms": 1093732,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7152710": [
{
"text": "And then when we ask it, what should we do next to benefit humanity?",
"start_ms": 7179040,
"lead_ms": 4850
},
{
"text": "Okay. And then when we ask it, what should we do next to benefit humanity?",
"start_ms": 7178210,
"lead_ms": 5680
},
{
"text": "Well, that day is today. Okay. And then when we ask it, what should we do next to benefit humanity?",
"start_ms": 7176710,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5849840": [
{
"text": "But now, actually, if you read it, they say it's simulated data environments, not algorithmic efficiency, and this model is good enough.",
"start_ms": 5853620,
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},
{
"text": "And I think what's interesting is you get to, again, a point in the data where it gets to that. But now, actually, if you read it, they say it's simulated data environments, not algorithmic efficiency, and this model is good enough.",
"start_ms": 5849840,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1331272": [
{
"text": "Uh, I mean, Anthropic is fundamentally a company in particular where Dario Amodei's probability we all will die from a year ago publicly is twenty-five percent, but no one really picked up on it that much.",
"start_ms": 1331612,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_4704872": [
{
"text": "Now they're gonna be one of the biggest media companies in the world.",
"start_ms": 4706832,
"lead_ms": 2800
},
{
"text": "with TikTok and things like that. Now they're gonna be one of the biggest media companies in the world.",
"start_ms": 4705092,
"lead_ms": 4540
},
{
"text": "Like-... with TikTok and things like that. Now they're gonna be one of the biggest media companies in the world.",
"start_ms": 4704572,
"lead_ms": 5060
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8732534": [
{
"text": "You know, the, the two things that have always been true about mankind are death and taxes, right?",
"start_ms": 8737974,
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},
{
"text": "Um, so, so, uh, one thought. You know, the, the two things that have always been true about mankind are death and taxes, right?",
"start_ms": 8735414,
"lead_ms": 8260
},
{
"text": "Jesus Lord. Um, so, so, uh, one thought. You know, the, the two things that have always been true about mankind are death and taxes, right?",
"start_ms": 8734394,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3666560": [
{
"text": "And I, I think in-increasingly, the bottleneck becomes everything else, the physical world, and taking these genius ideas that can emerge from these AIs at twenty dollars per month and reducing them to practice.",
"start_ms": 3666560,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_9575254": [
{
"text": "Uh, and a, a far more stable equilibrium would be what Anthropic says it's pursuing, where AI has an increasing vote in its own values and in designing its own constitution.",
"start_ms": 9595078,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8081018": [
{
"text": "And, and you can imagine the benefits to a regulatory region like that, some sovereign, some city, state, whatever it might be, that allows super rapid advancement and approval of these kind of drugs, right?",
"start_ms": 8101038,
"lead_ms": 11920
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_2152920": [
{
"text": "You, it's, it's, AI is much more dangerous in the hands of a bad person than a- the AI itself, right?",
"start_ms": 2146600,
"lead_ms": 6320
},
{
"text": "I think, Peter, you've said it. You, it's, it's, AI is much more dangerous in the hands of a bad person than a- the AI itself, right?",
"start_ms": 2144980,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_7030170": [
{
"text": "And so if you said, do I believe-- You know, as a guy who's been investing for thirty-plus years, do I believe this?",
"start_ms": 7038070,
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},
{
"text": "and the playbooks have to get thrown out. And so if you said, do I believe-- You know, as a guy who's been investing for thirty-plus years, do I believe this?",
"start_ms": 7035880,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1994070": [
{
"text": "Uh, that's still pretty good odds.",
"start_ms": 2012660,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, let's say P doom is 10%, right? Uh, that's still pretty good odds.",
"start_ms": 2009000,
"lead_ms": 5060
},
{
"text": "So, um, I, I, I think l- let's put our podcast hat on as Alex has referenced, right? Uh, let's say P doom is 10%, right? Uh, that's still pretty good odds.",
"start_ms": 2001540,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_890392": [
{
"text": "And, and that's the case.",
"start_ms": 890392,
"lead_ms": 1980
},
{
"text": "You remember that entrepreneur who had a whole, you know, thirty years of engineering data from his firm? And, and that's the case.",
"start_ms": 883812,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_3148136": [
{
"text": "Like, everyone kind of knew about it, and then Tom Hanks got it, and then all of a sudden it was like, \"Oh, crap, this is real.\"",
"start_ms": 3143016,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, I mean, I think basically this is like the Tom Hanks moment of COVID, you know? Like, everyone kind of knew about it, and then Tom Hanks got it, and then all of a sudden it was like, \"Oh, crap, this is real.\"",
"start_ms": 3137256,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_744592": [
{
"text": "I, I, I, I- Maybe just to, to comment because we talk on the pod all the time, royal we, uh, about what, what's at the end of the AGI rainbow? Like, what is...",
"start_ms": 746152,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8047358": [
{
"text": "But I think this is an example of an AI-triggered narrow spike that looks like an LEV in a portion of the population, and I think as with AI, we're going to see more and more spikes or sparks of LEV throughout the economy.",
"start_ms": 8032258,
"lead_ms": 15100
},
{
"text": "Caveat, caveat, caveat. But I think this is an example of an AI-triggered narrow spike that looks like an LEV in a portion of the population, and I think as with AI, we're going to see more and more spikes or sparks of LEV throughout the economy.",
"start_ms": 8030638,
"lead_ms": 16720
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_921272": [
{
"text": "I have a couple, I have a couple of quick points to make here.",
"start_ms": 916542,
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}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_1785724": [
{
"text": "Are we going to be dissolved with a swarm of nanites from one of the frontier labs?",
"start_ms": 1781314,
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},
{
"text": "We can hand-wring all day long about, well, is the world going to be doomed? Are we going to be dissolved with a swarm of nanites from one of the frontier labs?",
"start_ms": 1776984,
"lead_ms": 8740
},
{
"text": "Same idea here. We can hand-wring all day long about, well, is the world going to be doomed? Are we going to be dissolved with a swarm of nanites from one of the frontier labs?",
"start_ms": 1775804,
"lead_ms": 9920
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_8340075": [
{
"text": "You remember that?",
"start_ms": 8339306,
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},
{
"text": "Clarke's famous novel, do, do-- or, um, short story, \"The Nine Billion Names of God.\" You remember that?",
"start_ms": 8333846,
"lead_ms": 6860
},
{
"text": "It also reminds me Arthur C. Clarke's famous novel, do, do-- or, um, short story, \"The Nine Billion Names of God.\" You remember that?",
"start_ms": 8332085,
"lead_ms": 8621
}
],
"should_we_slow_down_ai_progress_moonshots_288_5104628": [
{
"text": "Um, but, but, uh-...",
"start_ms": 5099148,
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},
{
"text": "You know, figure out how you can make a black hole in your coffee. Um, but, but, uh-...",
"start_ms": 5096548,
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{
"text": "Study some complicated Navier-Stokes. You know, figure out how you can make a black hole in your coffee. Um, but, but, uh-...",
"start_ms": 5094608,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2975901": [
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"text": "So American labs have largely abandoned video gen in favor of letting China run away with the video gen story.",
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"text": "Uh, s- second point out of two points, uh, regarding Grok Imagine. So American labs have largely abandoned video gen in favor of letting China run away with the video gen story.",
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"text": "Two out of two. Uh, s- second point out of two points, uh, regarding Grok Imagine. So American labs have largely abandoned video gen in favor of letting China run away with the video gen story.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_480": [
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"text": "Hugging Face, the leading open platform for sharing, testing, and deploying AI models, it got breached by an autonomous agent.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6172912": [
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"text": "On the earlier story about somatic mutations, I, I think almost as interesting as the underlying technical story is the byline.",
"start_ms": 6175812,
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"text": "Uh, s- so a, a few comments. On the earlier story about somatic mutations, I, I think almost as interesting as the underlying technical story is the byline.",
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{
"text": "Yeah, I'll lean into both. Uh, s- so a, a few comments. On the earlier story about somatic mutations, I, I think almost as interesting as the underlying technical story is the byline.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_839816": [
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"text": "The- Yeah, a couple days. 27.",
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{
"text": "I mean, Kimi K3 is in just a couple days, right? The- Yeah, a couple days. 27.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8786232": [
{
"text": "Imagine you had a video of an apple drawing from a, dropping from a tree.",
"start_ms": 8811032,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7761584": [
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"text": "A quick note on what the UAP Disclosure Act, if it's passed by the Senate and signed by the President, would include.",
"start_ms": 7767864,
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{
"text": "This time around, historically, for the first time ever, the UAP Disclosure Act has been folded in. A quick note on what the UAP Disclosure Act, if it's passed by the Senate and signed by the President, would include.",
"start_ms": 7761584,
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6418688": [
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"text": "And we just saw Genes- the Genesis Mission focusing on curing disease.",
"start_ms": 6414308,
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{
"text": "There's nothing more valuable. And we just saw Genes- the Genesis Mission focusing on curing disease.",
"start_ms": 6412468,
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},
{
"text": "Your, your greatest wealth is your health. There's nothing more valuable. And we just saw Genes- the Genesis Mission focusing on curing disease.",
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],
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"text": "Just to be clear-...",
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{
"text": "Yeah, 27. Just to be clear-...",
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"text": "frontier labs here at a trillion each.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8441788": [
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"text": "a slow spot in the ex- yeah, constrained.",
"start_ms": 8442568,
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{
"text": "So we're actually in a-... a slow spot in the ex- yeah, constrained.",
"start_ms": 8440688,
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{
"text": "Uh, GPUs can't be manufactured fast enough. So we're actually in a-... a slow spot in the ex- yeah, constrained.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_303290": [
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"text": "This week we're gonna cover open source/closed source debate, AI escaping containment, Elon's newest moonshots, the exponential future of science in America, updates on the race towards longevity escape velocity, and the latest on UAPs from the White House.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1228836": [
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"text": "You've got three different things going on here.",
"start_ms": 1233476,
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{
"text": "And, uh, there's one more thing I want to say about this whole thing. You've got three different things going on here.",
"start_ms": 1231016,
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{
"text": "Yeah. And, uh, there's one more thing I want to say about this whole thing. You've got three different things going on here.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1325936": [
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"text": "Well, it's already on the price performance frontier, but I, I should say near state-of-the-art, near SOTA performance.",
"start_ms": 1335136,
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{
"text": "Something, again, is, is probably missing here, but i- in any event, I, I would say the existence of K-3 at near frontier... Well, it's already on the price performance frontier, but I, I should say near state-of-the-art, near SOTA performance.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6878228": [
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"text": "It came out of a, a 404 Media article.",
"start_ms": 6875008,
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{
"text": "You sent me a second story, which is a perfect pair to this. It came out of a, a 404 Media article.",
"start_ms": 6871788,
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{
"text": "So Salim, you, um, uh, you know, I know you have thoughts on this. You sent me a second story, which is a perfect pair to this. It came out of a, a 404 Media article.",
"start_ms": 6867748,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4419024": [
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"text": "And this is highly aligned with the EXO thesis.",
"start_ms": 4419634,
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{
"text": "Right? And this is highly aligned with the EXO thesis.",
"start_ms": 4419024,
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{
"text": "It needs a freaking upgrade. Right? And this is highly aligned with the EXO thesis.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6433008": [
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"text": "Uh, the craziest thing, uh,'cause I never came across longevity until Singularity University, and even then it took me a while to get my head around it.",
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"text": "Three quick reactions. Uh, the craziest thing, uh,'cause I never came across longevity until Singularity University, and even then it took me a while to get my head around it.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_779016": [
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"text": "So, you know, you know when Google indexes a page and then shows you a thumbnail of what you're about to see, that doesn't violate copyright'cause it's a transform-- thumbnailing is a transformative act.",
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"text": "Um, they then asked a fascinating question, \"How about if you left one of the causes of aging, specifically somatic mutations?\" Right?",
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{
"text": "Seventeen- Too short. Um, they then asked a fascinating question, \"How about if you left one of the causes of aging, specifically somatic mutations?\" Right?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6821658": [
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"text": "On that note- On that note, I'm moving us along. All right.",
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{
"text": "Oh, no. On that note- On that note, I'm moving us along. All right.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3887900": [
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"text": "And four, re-engineering the research enterprise for the age of AI.",
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{
"text": "Three, a set of national scientific goals and rebuilding in the industrial capacity to translate discovery into strength. And four, re-engineering the research enterprise for the age of AI.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3367614": [
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"text": "Imagine if Steve Jobs had left behind an AI trained on 25 years of Apple's internal thinking, right?",
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"text": "I mean, imagine if- Imagine if- Whoa, whoa. Imagine if Steve Jobs had left behind an AI trained on 25 years of Apple's internal thinking, right?",
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"text": "Yeah. I mean, imagine if- Imagine if- Whoa, whoa. Imagine if Steve Jobs had left behind an AI trained on 25 years of Apple's internal thinking, right?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1975148": [
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"text": "The safety guardrails built into Anthropic and OpenAI literally couldn't tell the difference between a defender, in this case Hu-Hugging Face, doing forensics and an attacking agent probing the network.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_414956": [
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"text": "So in this slide here is a post from David Sacks, who says, \"Kimi K3 just fixed 15 critical security bugs that Codex and Fable refused because of cyber guardrails.",
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"text": "Two other stories tell the opposite side of the debate. So in this slide here is a post from David Sacks, who says, \"Kimi K3 just fixed 15 critical security bugs that Codex and Fable refused because of cyber guardrails.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3312932": [
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"text": "This is like unreal, unbelievable.",
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"text": "The biggest thing that I think he's doing, he's actually creating an edge twin of, of SpaceX itself inside Grok because he's taking all this stuff. This is like unreal, unbelievable.",
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"text": "SpaceX data is really, really deep. The biggest thing that I think he's doing, he's actually creating an edge twin of, of SpaceX itself inside Grok because he's taking all this stuff. This is like unreal, unbelievable.",
"start_ms": 3312932,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1921408": [
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"text": "It got breached by, over a single weekend by an autonomous agent with zero humans in the loop.",
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{
"text": "So our first story comes from Hugging Face, uh, the leading open platform for sharing, testing, and deploying AI models. It got breached by, over a single weekend by an autonomous agent with zero humans in the loop.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4831830": [
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"text": "A third two weeks with, uh, execs who've scaled companies, and a fourth two weeks with corporates that might, uh, license, buy, uh, invest, et cetera.",
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{
"text": "Do you license, do you embed, do you productize? A third two weeks with, uh, execs who've scaled companies, and a fourth two weeks with corporates that might, uh, license, buy, uh, invest, et cetera.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8827052": [
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"text": "With three frames of a, of a video of an apple falling from a tree, if it's like high-resolution video, you should be able to infer acceleration.",
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"text": "Imagine you had a video of an apple drawing from a, dropping from a tree. With three frames of a, of a video of an apple falling from a tree, if it's like high-resolution video, you should be able to infer acceleration.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2919302": [
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"text": "If I'm Elon, I'm thinking, \"Okay-\" I, I'm probably not going to win based on algorithms.",
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"text": "But the data, the reasoning traces were seemingly so valuable for post-training K3 up to near, near state-of-the-art level. If I'm Elon, I'm thinking, \"Okay-\" I, I'm probably not going to win based on algorithms.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3519124": [
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"text": "And so now you have technology being leveraged in the most incredible ways at the most unbelievable speed.",
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{
"text": "Um, uh, technology is always a major driver of progress, and it may be the only major driver of progress we've ever seen. And so now you have technology being leveraged in the most incredible ways at the most unbelievable speed.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3223652": [
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"text": "I, I think this is one of the biggest and cleverest things I've ever seen Elon do, okay?",
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"text": "I've got, I've got, I've got a bunch here. I, I think this is one of the biggest and cleverest things I've ever seen Elon do, okay?",
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{
"text": "Can I? I've got, I've got, I've got a bunch here. I, I think this is one of the biggest and cleverest things I've ever seen Elon do, okay?",
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"text": "The, the, that's, I think that's a great idea, but the problem, Alex, is that the output side has been as inefficient or worse, right?",
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"text": "Just a quick comment? The, the, that's, I think that's a great idea, but the problem, Alex, is that the output side has been as inefficient or worse, right?",
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"text": "Um, can I make a quick comment? Just a quick comment? The, the, that's, I think that's a great idea, but the problem, Alex, is that the output side has been as inefficient or worse, right?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5030000": [
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"text": "So people should not be driving.",
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{
"text": "Uh, in 2011, BlackBerry had a three-day data outage around the world, and the accident when nobody could send BlackBerry messages, and the accident rate dropped 40% in those three days. So people should not be driving.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6685568": [
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"text": "And then I had a meeting with George Church at Harvard Medical School, absolutely brilliant, one of the fathers of synthetic biology, and he said, \"You see, you don't want a longevity prize.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_357820": [
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"text": "So I'm gonna give you four stories, guys, and we'll talk about them.",
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{
"text": "This week, the debate on how the US should react has split into polar opposites. So I'm gonna give you four stories, guys, and we'll talk about them.",
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{
"text": "but at a fraction of the price and a fraction of the investment. This week, the debate on how the US should react has split into polar opposites. So I'm gonna give you four stories, guys, and we'll talk about them.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3814170": [
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"text": "So, you know, his-- the prior Elon was all based on scientific timelines, exponentials, and what's possible.",
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"text": "Like when-- as soon as there's governments involved things don't always happen. So, you know, his-- the prior Elon was all based on scientific timelines, exponentials, and what's possible.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4882880": [
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"text": "So Paul Graham, founder of Y Combinator, put out the following tweet.",
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{
"text": "All right, I'm gonna move us to the future of transportation, and this next story really pisses me off. So Paul Graham, founder of Y Combinator, put out the following tweet.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4566464": [
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"text": "perpetuating the old ways, and it's a, it's an employment project.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_819806": [
{
"text": "Of course they would.",
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{
"text": "Like, who in their right mind building a neural net wouldn't do that? Of course they would.",
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{
"text": "So what? Like, who in their right mind building a neural net wouldn't do that? Of course they would.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1803668": [
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"text": "They, you know, if, if your primary model and your, your Moonshot AI, your primary model is open weight, you, you're eking out profit wherever you can.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_959936": [
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"text": "And I don't know if you guys saw the, the, the data recently.",
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{
"text": "So they're, they're using everything they can to protect their position. And I don't know if you guys saw the, the, the data recently.",
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{
"text": "Uh, you know, one thing worth noting is that, and I think Anthropic has the largest lobbying budget out there in DC, right? So they're, they're using everything they can to protect their position. And I don't know if you guys saw the, the, the data recently.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5581592": [
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"text": "I mean, this goes back to the idea we've talked about in the past of distributed computing, right?",
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"text": "When you have gigabit connection speeds to your car, it's gonna be extraordinary. I mean, this goes back to the idea we've talked about in the past of distributed computing, right?",
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"text": "It should be, right? When you have gigabit connection speeds to your car, it's gonna be extraordinary. I mean, this goes back to the idea we've talked about in the past of distributed computing, right?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8370907": [
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"text": "Um, you know, there will be four, five, six closed source models in the US.",
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},
{
"text": "They'll be leapfrogging, leapfrogging Kimi K3, and they're sufficiently embedded and partnered with huge corporations and the government, uh, where they're here to stay. Um, you know, there will be four, five, six closed source models in the US.",
"start_ms": 8381708,
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}
],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2450940": [
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"text": "It's also a great opportunity to act like Steve Jobs and, and Apple and build products that people can just enjoy because you've done all the incredibly hard work of making it enjoyable behind the scenes.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8161008": [
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"text": "for example, we, we reach the, the physical limits of computing, and Seth Lloyd has written extensively about this as well.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5802762": [
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"text": "They need the infrastructure support, uh, and, uh, they've got incredible, uh, government support for this and innovation happening.",
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{
"text": "It's just, again, you know, China is pushing this out. They need the infrastructure support, uh, and, uh, they've got incredible, uh, government support for this and innovation happening.",
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{
"text": "I'm, I'm looking forward to seeing autonomous trucks on the US roads. It's just, again, you know, China is pushing this out. They need the infrastructure support, uh, and, uh, they've got incredible, uh, government support for this and innovation happening.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6546888": [
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"text": "Then once that's done, if that works, and I have every reason to believe it will, uh, uh, Life Biosciences will then go into other organ systems.",
"start_ms": 6552648,
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{
"text": "Did it restore the eye to an earlier state of youth? Then once that's done, if that works, and I have every reason to believe it will, uh, uh, Life Biosciences will then go into other organ systems.",
"start_ms": 6549328,
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{
"text": "of did it reverse, um, nylon disease in the eye? Did it restore the eye to an earlier state of youth? Then once that's done, if that works, and I have every reason to believe it will, uh, uh, Life Biosciences will then go into other organ systems.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1608220": [
{
"text": "Big companies have become bigger, but they're also becoming bit more efficient.",
"start_ms": 1632280,
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{
"text": "Uh, let's note that all job creation for 50 years has come from startups. Big companies have become bigger, but they're also becoming bit more efficient.",
"start_ms": 1627780,
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},
{
"text": "But you're gonna hobble the US from innovation from then on because all innovation comes from startups. Uh, let's note that all job creation for 50 years has come from startups. Big companies have become bigger, but they're also becoming bit more efficient.",
"start_ms": 1622380,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2387809": [
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"text": "Look, we're, we're coming to a point where every organization in the world will, is not gonna just need an AI usage policy.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6012372": [
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"text": "Uh, we have Life Biosciences, who's dosed the first living humans.",
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{
"text": "Uh, there are no fewer than six companies currently working on partial epigenetic reprogramming. Uh, we have Life Biosciences, who's dosed the first living humans.",
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{
"text": "So, uh, here we go. Uh, there are no fewer than six companies currently working on partial epigenetic reprogramming. Uh, we have Life Biosciences, who's dosed the first living humans.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_674106": [
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"text": "Fundamentally, all of these American frontier models are about compressing knowledge, and I, I think this is going to be very heavily litigated before we arrive at some sort of global consensus.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2061878": [
{
"text": "And you're like, \"Yeah, yeah, yeah.",
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"text": "It's just that the first thing you do when you're building an AI is you connect it to Hugging Face to download all the open source data so it can learn, and it always says, \"Are you sure you want me to do this?\" And you're like, \"Yeah, yeah, yeah.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4757714": [
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"text": "Like, i- i- in the middle of an internet revolution, it was an HDTV patent.",
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"text": "15, 20 years ago, the most revenue-generating patent from MIT's TLO was a patent related to HDTV. Like, i- i- in the middle of an internet revolution, it was an HDTV patent.",
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"text": "I remember, like, 20... 15, 20 years ago, the most revenue-generating patent from MIT's TLO was a patent related to HDTV. Like, i- i- in the middle of an internet revolution, it was an HDTV patent.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1398956": [
{
"text": "I mean, it, it, you know...",
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{
"text": "The, the timeline on all these events is just, just mind-blowingly off. I mean, it, it, you know...",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3332652": [
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"text": "And we've talked about on the pod before, you know, can anybody catch up to SpaceX in the launch industry?",
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{
"text": "requirement across the board. And we've talked about on the pod before, you know, can anybody catch up to SpaceX in the launch industry?",
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{
"text": "He made that-... requirement across the board. And we've talked about on the pod before, you know, can anybody catch up to SpaceX in the launch industry?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6577608": [
{
"text": "Peter already touched on phenotypic measures like does the, the non-human animal or the human see better, or do you, do you see signs of like retinal rejuvenation or macular de- degeneration?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2991872": [
{
"text": "OpenAI has abandoned video.",
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{
"text": "Google DeepMind has released Gemini Omni, which will generate at best 10 to 15-second clips, but they've basically abandoned long form video generation. OpenAI has abandoned video.",
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{
"text": "in favor of letting China run away with the video gen story. Google DeepMind has released Gemini Omni, which will generate at best 10 to 15-second clips, but they've basically abandoned long form video generation. OpenAI has abandoned video.",
"start_ms": 2972232,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4498804": [
{
"text": "And so we've t- I've talked about this before, you know, the, the AI generates the hypothesis.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6488178": [
{
"text": "You basically bring it back to an earlier state of youth.",
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{
"text": "They did this work in mice originally, uh, and they were able to reverse glaucoma, uh, and, I'm sorry, macular degeneration, and they're able to reverse nylon disease, which is strokes in the eye. You basically bring it back to an earlier state of youth.",
"start_ms": 6520108,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2031988": [
{
"text": "The OpenAI model then stole credentials, penetrated Hugging Face, where it retrieved the answers to exploit Gym Benchmark, uh, that it was being tested on.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7877984": [
{
"text": "I, I've, I've spoken with Congress.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2316720": [
{
"text": "Capital will flow.",
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{
"text": "It'll incentivize startups to go into cybersecurity. Capital will flow.",
"start_ms": 2338440,
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},
{
"text": "People are gonna be using this as a chance to sort of s- get their startups. It'll incentivize startups to go into cybersecurity. Capital will flow.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6067712": [
{
"text": "Uh, they have been dosing individuals using a r- a virus that's carrying three of the four Yamanaka factors with injections into the retina to treat glaucoma and optic nerve damage.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8414108": [
{
"text": "So we're in kind of a, a spot right now where the chip supply is massively constrained.",
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{
"text": "Uh, we're already there, actually. So we're in kind of a, a spot right now where the chip supply is massively constrained.",
"start_ms": 8427768,
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},
{
"text": "From SeanSolomon5665. Uh, we're already there, actually. So we're in kind of a, a spot right now where the chip supply is massively constrained.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7917184": [
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"text": "I l- I love the way Alex framed it, you know, relative to the Eisenhower warning as he was leaving office,'cause this is a pure win-win.",
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{
"text": "Well, I think it's a pure win-win. I l- I love the way Alex framed it, you know, relative to the Eisenhower warning as he was leaving office,'cause this is a pure win-win.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1032445": [
{
"text": "You, you needed whole departments or whole corporations, and now you have a small team accessing that capability.",
"start_ms": 1040636,
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"text": "Small teams can access capabilities that totally, uh, couldn't be utilized before. You, you needed whole departments or whole corporations, and now you have a small team accessing that capability.",
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{
"text": "yeah. Small teams can access capabilities that totally, uh, couldn't be utilized before. You, you needed whole departments or whole corporations, and now you have a small team accessing that capability.",
"start_ms": 1034136,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_892876": [
{
"text": "Well, this is like, uh, Sisyphean, right?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1009856": [
{
"text": "The internet worked.",
"start_ms": 1021396,
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{
"text": "Which is right, uh, which is the few-- Every single innovation comes by doing things very differently at the edge. The internet worked.",
"start_ms": 1015496,
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},
{
"text": "Open models distribute capability to the edge, right? Which is right, uh, which is the few-- Every single innovation comes by doing things very differently at the edge. The internet worked.",
"start_ms": 1011876,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3422814": [
{
"text": "As, as a failed engineer, this is like the greatest thing I've ever seen.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4583074": [
{
"text": "Uh, I'll quick, quickly comment.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5473728": [
{
"text": "if you like this story, there's videos that go with the story.",
"start_ms": 5473788,
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{
"text": "Well, there's a-- If you-... if you like this story, there's videos that go with the story.",
"start_ms": 5472798,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6359048": [
{
"text": "Be optimistic about this, right?",
"start_ms": 6407728,
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},
{
"text": "So again, on the, you know, besides irony, I want this to be the optimism, uh, episode. Be optimistic about this, right?",
"start_ms": 6402228,
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},
{
"text": "And like I'd say, \"Don't die from something stupid before then.\" So again, on the, you know, besides irony, I want this to be the optimism, uh, episode. Be optimistic about this, right?",
"start_ms": 6399637,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7800384": [
{
"text": "It'll extend disclosure requirements to government contractors, so government require- contractors will be required statutorily to start disclosing UAP information.",
"start_ms": 7789584,
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},
{
"text": "It'll create an independent UAP Records Review Board. It'll extend disclosure requirements to government contractors, so government require- contractors will be required statutorily to start disclosing UAP information.",
"start_ms": 7785864,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4241936": [
{
"text": "It rewards incrementalism.",
"start_ms": 4239596,
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},
{
"text": "Anyone who's ever had to, say, write an NSF grant application would hopefully a- agree with the assessment. It rewards incrementalism.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3275072": [
{
"text": "So this is like now you get long systems horizon thinking, right?",
"start_ms": 3283372,
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},
{
"text": "So this essentially absorbs the collective engineering of one of the greatest organizations ever built for building, uh, integrated verticalized systems. So this is like now you get long systems horizon thinking, right?",
"start_ms": 3275072,
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},
{
"text": "So hold on, let me finish. So this essentially absorbs the collective engineering of one of the greatest organizations ever built for building, uh, integrated verticalized systems. So this is like now you get long systems horizon thinking, right?",
"start_ms": 3273992,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5085320": [
{
"text": "I mean, uh, it's, it's huge amounts of thing.",
"start_ms": 5099120,
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},
{
"text": "Because, uh, when we... I mean, uh, it's, it's huge amounts of thing.",
"start_ms": 5098110,
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},
{
"text": "This is just an unbelievable thing. Because, uh, when we... I mean, uh, it's, it's huge amounts of thing.",
"start_ms": 5095100,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3941500": [
{
"text": "It's, uh, it's an-- it's the government, uh, putting strength behind AI, making federal science data available to all, and the nice-- n- the national labs, uh, computing being dramatically accelerated for science engineering.",
"start_ms": 3944040,
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{
"text": "So it's an amazing program, right? It's, uh, it's an-- it's the government, uh, putting strength behind AI, making federal science data available to all, and the nice-- n- the national labs, uh, computing being dramatically accelerated for science engineering.",
"start_ms": 3941770,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6629268": [
{
"text": "Uh, when we first started working on a Longevity XPRIZE, it's now called the Healthspan XPRIZE.",
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},
{
"text": "The, uh, the, uh, these clocks are organ specific versus the whole organism, and so there are organ specific clocks that you can use. Uh, when we first started working on a Longevity XPRIZE, it's now called the Healthspan XPRIZE.",
"start_ms": 6640928,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7703024": [
{
"text": "There's a parallel story just in the past two days playing out in the legislative branch.",
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{
"text": "So this is the story that we were just talking about that's playing out in the executive branch. There's a parallel story just in the past two days playing out in the legislative branch.",
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{
"text": "No, go ahead Uh, the g- good way, so there's a second story here. So this is the story that we were just talking about that's playing out in the executive branch. There's a parallel story just in the past two days playing out in the legislative branch.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4095576": [
{
"text": "Should I give him 30 million bucks or not?\"",
"start_ms": 4092496,
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{
"text": "He said, \"Neither do I. Should I give him 30 million bucks or not?\"",
"start_ms": 4091636,
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},
{
"text": "I don't even have no idea.\" He said, \"Neither do I. Should I give him 30 million bucks or not?\"",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2686872": [
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"text": "Uh, uh, two particular stories in the SpaceX ecosystem, both classic moves by friend of the pod, Elon Musk.",
"start_ms": 2689392,
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{
"text": "All right, um, let's move on to our next story. Uh, uh, two particular stories in the SpaceX ecosystem, both classic moves by friend of the pod, Elon Musk.",
"start_ms": 2686872,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4204836": [
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"text": "And finally, that complex, which has grown arguably incredibly inefficient, I, I agree with those who've pointed out that, say, National Science Foundation, wildly inefficient.",
"start_ms": 4220716,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4449304": [
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"text": "So rather than funding the very best scientists who are producing the most, they're trying to democratize it.",
"start_ms": 4483244,
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{
"text": "His grants, he'd had too many successfully funded grants, and his work was going, and they needed to spread the wealth. So rather than funding the very best scientists who are producing the most, they're trying to democratize it.",
"start_ms": 4477284,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5038340": [
{
"text": "Because they don't consciously...",
"start_ms": 5038340,
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{
"text": "I actually want to be slightly defensible to the lawyers just for a second. Because they don't consciously...",
"start_ms": 5034110,
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},
{
"text": "We're terrible control systems for two-ton cars. I actually want to be slightly defensible to the lawyers just for a second. Because they don't consciously...",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5349068": [
{
"text": "And the labs, you know, Anthropic and Dario in particular, they were saying, \"We can eliminate all these jobs next year,\" are now starting to say, \"You know what?",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6784828": [
{
"text": "Can I throw out my standard joke?",
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{
"text": "for that. Can I throw out my standard joke?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8476648": [
{
"text": "And so I, I think the, the answer differs.",
"start_ms": 8505578,
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{
"text": "Does it mean biology or something like that? And so I, I think the, the answer differs.",
"start_ms": 8502828,
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},
{
"text": "Does it mean the real economy? Does it mean biology or something like that? And so I, I think the, the answer differs.",
"start_ms": 8500348,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8574148": [
{
"text": "There's a benchmark for, for almost any definition, operational or otherwise, for the real world.",
"start_ms": 8568208,
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},
{
"text": "Remember there's an app for that? There's a benchmark for, for almost any definition, operational or otherwise, for the real world.",
"start_ms": 8566528,
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},
{
"text": "So I'd say the punchline is there's a benchmark. Remember there's an app for that? There's a benchmark for, for almost any definition, operational or otherwise, for the real world.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8657328": [
{
"text": "So imagine you're a researcher trying to improve lithium ion batteries.",
"start_ms": 8675668,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_734196": [
{
"text": "We haven't achieved equilibrium on this yet, but I think I, I think we will, and I think it will ultimately be determined by a combination of export control.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5287858": [
{
"text": "And now AI can just make that completely irrelevant.",
"start_ms": 5307428,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6445348": [
{
"text": "And I think that just changes the game completely.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2404920": [
{
"text": "Uh, a- again, I, I really hope people take away from this that these small incidents are gonna increase security in the long run.",
"start_ms": 2405960,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. Uh, a- again, I, I really hope people take away from this that these small incidents are gonna increase security in the long run.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4938260": [
{
"text": "Just sit that, that one for a minute, right?",
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},
{
"text": "They need people to be killed and injured so they can have material for lawsuits.\" Just sit that, that one for a minute, right?",
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},
{
"text": "Quote, \"Trial lawyers are lobbying against self-driving cars because they're too safe. They need people to be killed and injured so they can have material for lawsuits.\" Just sit that, that one for a minute, right?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3977140": [
{
"text": "So in summary, this is the most ambitious restructuring of US science funding in 80 years.",
"start_ms": 3978740,
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{
"text": "with vis-a-vis MIT. So in summary, this is the most ambitious restructuring of US science funding in 80 years.",
"start_ms": 3977360,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, we've talked about that-... with vis-a-vis MIT. So in summary, this is the most ambitious restructuring of US science funding in 80 years.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6904188": [
{
"text": "This is, uh, I'm just happy that the thing is done, uh, and let's just move on.",
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},
{
"text": "Look, the, this, uh, the, the, the nuance of a pirated book, I mean, if they'd have spent the money on a real book, it would've been much cheaper. This is, uh, I'm just happy that the thing is done, uh, and let's just move on.",
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],
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{
"text": "So m- maybe a little bit of context.",
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{
"text": "Sure. So m- maybe a little bit of context.",
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{
"text": "subverting future AI systems. Sure. So m- maybe a little bit of context.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2180950": [
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"text": "Well, a lot of people, those maybe steeped in the AI alignment community, might look at this and conclude, \"Aha, the orthogonality thesis,\" which suggests that it's possible for the intelligence of an AI to be independent of its long-term goals.",
"start_ms": 2180950,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1708280": [
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"text": "staged release on the- I have an answer.",
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{
"text": "So I, I could imagine that it's some combination of, uh, demand overwhelming supply on the one hand, m- maybe some sort of-... staged release on the- I have an answer.",
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{
"text": "seeking access. So I, I could imagine that it's some combination of, uh, demand overwhelming supply on the one hand, m- maybe some sort of-... staged release on the- I have an answer.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4160416": [
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"text": "And I think during this 80-year regime, there was institutionalization, arguably over-institutionalization of which research directions would get funded and pursued and which were appropriate.",
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"text": "was set up, maybe a bit of military there. And I think during this 80-year regime, there was institutionalization, arguably over-institutionalization of which research directions would get funded and pursued and which were appropriate.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5492108": [
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"text": "that you wouldn't have.",
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"text": "But when you look at those videos, you realize that the car can way outperform the best driver in the world'cause it has information-... that you wouldn't have.",
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{
"text": "I said a 90-year-old could be a dangerous driver. But when you look at those videos, you realize that the car can way outperform the best driver in the world'cause it has information-... that you wouldn't have.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7939084": [
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"text": "in this age of AI that we're moving into.",
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{
"text": "Um, yeah, so- Doesn't mean there's aliens, but it, it shows us what the government is capable of, and we need that warning-... in this age of AI that we're moving into.",
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"text": "secrecy for 1,000 years. Um, yeah, so- Doesn't mean there's aliens, but it, it shows us what the government is capable of, and we need that warning-... in this age of AI that we're moving into.",
"start_ms": 7939693,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3411184": [
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"text": "He is way down the path of the completely self-contained, like the Genesis module from Star Trek.",
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{
"text": "There's your answer. He is way down the path of the completely self-contained, like the Genesis module from Star Trek.",
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{
"text": "Answer: moon dust. There's your answer. He is way down the path of the completely self-contained, like the Genesis module from Star Trek.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8037608": [
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"text": "Like I can ask AI identify, identify the best route somewhere or evaluate, um, treatment options, uh, for some sort of issue.",
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{
"text": "You should not abdicate, but you can definitely delegate. Like I can ask AI identify, identify the best route somewhere or evaluate, um, treatment options, uh, for some sort of issue.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1054116": [
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"text": "I, I'll ask again the question that I've asked previously on the pod.",
"start_ms": 1058176,
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{
"text": "an accelerant f- of Western progress. I, I'll ask again the question that I've asked previously on the pod.",
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{
"text": "I, I think this is fundamentally-... an accelerant f- of Western progress. I, I'll ask again the question that I've asked previously on the pod.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5146968": [
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"text": "I think also, uh, p- police departments that, uh, and municipalities, yes, speeding tickets.",
"start_ms": 5146968,
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{
"text": "parking meter fees that accrue to municipalities. I think also, uh, p- police departments that, uh, and municipalities, yes, speeding tickets.",
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{
"text": "It's also... parking meter fees that accrue to municipalities. I think also, uh, p- police departments that, uh, and municipalities, yes, speeding tickets.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1254316": [
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"text": "I think there's, i- i- in the style of Sherlock Holmes and the dog that didn't bark, I, I think people aren't thinking enough about the dog that's not barking in this case, and that's the architecture.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_521086": [
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"text": "Not quite obvious to me what precisely that equilibrium looks like, but I, I would suggest there are accusations flying in both directions.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1167896": [
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"text": "Everybody, you know, uh, uh, Salim is the expert on this topic of all people on the planet.",
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"text": "I mean, you get corporate bloat. Everybody, you know, uh, uh, Salim is the expert on this topic of all people on the planet.",
"start_ms": 1169516,
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{
"text": "Yeah, for sure. I mean, you get corporate bloat. Everybody, you know, uh, uh, Salim is the expert on this topic of all people on the planet.",
"start_ms": 1168296,
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4046120": [
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"text": "I have a firsthand, you know, kind of a front row seat at Liquid AI where, you know, these exact same guys were in CSAIL at MIT with a trickle of funding, and then the exact same people move out and start a private company and just take off.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3837170": [
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"text": "Kratsios' conclusions are blunt.",
"start_ms": 3874360,
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{
"text": "That's the policy document that gave America the National Science Foundation and shaped 80 years of American research. Kratsios' conclusions are blunt.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8526268": [
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"text": "So I'd say the punchline is there's a benchmark.",
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{
"text": "If it means the biological world or the social world, we've talked on the pod in the past about virtual cell-based models and competitions and super forecaster prediction-based benchmarking in particular. So I'd say the punchline is there's a benchmark.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3570934": [
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"text": "If I were to steelman the value of Grok Imagine, uh, Elon's video model, I think it's not going to be about, uh, generating adult videos.",
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"text": "And I, I just want to make m- one more point about Grok Imagine and the Elonverse. If I were to steelman the value of Grok Imagine, uh, Elon's video model, I think it's not going to be about, uh, generating adult videos.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7888164": [
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"text": "Salim, to your point, at minimum, toward transparency.",
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"text": "So I, I view both of these developments on the executive and legislative sides as historic movements. Salim, to your point, at minimum, toward transparency.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8211788": [
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"text": "In the scheme of things, what is twenty years compared to, I think my estimate was about a hundred and forty-four years before we disassemble the Earth itself through an exponential extrapolation of up mass.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4293916": [
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"text": "Uh, in, in, you know, in the thesis, the corporation now can be disrupted because of AI.",
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"text": "Salim, this is exactly the purpose of a corporation. Uh, in, in, you know, in the thesis, the corporation now can be disrupted because of AI.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8609528": [
{
"text": "Uh, question number eight: Does science needs constant real world texting, testing?",
"start_ms": 8618508,
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{
"text": "I'll take number eight, um, uh, just because I can follow on from what Alex talked about. Uh, question number eight: Does science needs constant real world texting, testing?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5757632": [
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"text": "You know, there's, there's a, uh, concept, uh, stats that 3 million jobs in the US are based on trucking, et cetera, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 5757632,
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{
"text": "I have some, a little bit of data on this. You know, there's, there's a, uh, concept, uh, stats that 3 million jobs in the US are based on trucking, et cetera, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 5755392,
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{
"text": "Um, actually, can I... I have some, a little bit of data on this. You know, there's, there's a, uh, concept, uh, stats that 3 million jobs in the US are based on trucking, et cetera, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 5753892,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3742240": [
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"text": "Um, and he's said many times before he's in a perfect position to know, so his credibility on the topic is incredibly high, and, um, uh, I can see it firsthand.",
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{
"text": "Well, he put a really, a really crisp timeline on it. Um, and he's said many times before he's in a perfect position to know, so his credibility on the topic is incredibly high, and, um, uh, I can see it firsthand.",
"start_ms": 3743060,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, yeah. Well, he put a really, a really crisp timeline on it. Um, and he's said many times before he's in a perfect position to know, so his credibility on the topic is incredibly high, and, um, uh, I can see it firsthand.",
"start_ms": 3742240,
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5504108": [
{
"text": "My, my mom, God bless her, is 90 years old, living in Florida.",
"start_ms": 5504108,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1763320": [
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"text": "And I, I really do feel like that's kind of the way China operates.",
"start_ms": 1774420,
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{
"text": "before you actually put it out and make it irreversible. And I, I really do feel like that's kind of the way China operates.",
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{
"text": "in China, you might wanna declare what you're gonna do and give the government a week or two to come and arrest you or not-... before you actually put it out and make it irreversible. And I, I really do feel like that's kind of the way China operates.",
"start_ms": 1763620,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3687964": [
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"text": "And there's something else, um, uh, which I've had a beef with, which is the whole DOGE affair, and Elon came out and said DOGE was not a great idea.",
"start_ms": 3720160,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6189482": [
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"text": "Uh, Putin on the sidelines of a summit with Xi Jinping was reported to be telling Xi about all of the progress that Russia was purportedly making and the, the money that it was investing in longevity.",
"start_ms": 6200752,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7017034": [
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"text": "So I, I think th- this is like a, a preview.",
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"text": "And this is exactly the sort of exotic attack vector against frontier models that you don't see prior to 2022. So I, I think th- this is like a, a preview.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5221758": [
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"text": "You know, AI's gonna transform, uh, law, medicine, every field as well.",
"start_ms": 5253108,
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{
"text": "We're gonna lose lots of jobs. You know, AI's gonna transform, uh, law, medicine, every field as well.",
"start_ms": 5251708,
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},
{
"text": "Yes, we're gonna have disruption. We're gonna lose lots of jobs. You know, AI's gonna transform, uh, law, medicine, every field as well.",
"start_ms": 5250468,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5699701": [
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"text": "It's got, it's got lidar on the front and, uh, and headlights, and that's about it.",
"start_ms": 5720292,
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{
"text": "Uh, so describing it, this is a 18-wheeler, but the cab where the driver goes is basically like a flat board. It's got, it's got lidar on the front and, uh, and headlights, and that's about it.",
"start_ms": 5711812,
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"text": "So check out this video. Uh, so describing it, this is a 18-wheeler, but the cab where the driver goes is basically like a flat board. It's got, it's got lidar on the front and, uh, and headlights, and that's about it.",
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5014789": [
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"text": "on the podcast, uh, podcast before, but it's worth repeating some of this.",
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{
"text": "I've said a bunch of this stuff-... on the podcast, uh, podcast before, but it's worth repeating some of this.",
"start_ms": 5013520,
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{
"text": "Yeah. I've said a bunch of this stuff-... on the podcast, uh, podcast before, but it's worth repeating some of this.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4408074": [
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"text": "So there's, there's a...",
"start_ms": 4410024,
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{
"text": "All that money went to administrators and to building more buildings and whatever, and nothing went to the actual researchers- Uh, yeah. So there's, there's a...",
"start_ms": 4401624,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6125472": [
{
"text": "And one of the current theories, according to Dr.",
"start_ms": 6119092,
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{
"text": "That's your epigenome, the control system for turning on and off genes. And one of the current theories, according to Dr.",
"start_ms": 6114592,
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},
{
"text": "Well, it's not the genes you have, it's which genes are on and which genes are off. That's your epigenome, the control system for turning on and off genes. And one of the current theories, according to Dr.",
"start_ms": 6109792,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2955652": [
{
"text": "Uh, s- second point out of two points, uh, regarding Grok Imagine.",
"start_ms": 2964622,
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{
"text": "Two out of two. Uh, s- second point out of two points, uh, regarding Grok Imagine.",
"start_ms": 2963012,
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{
"text": "This, this is, this is two out of two. Two out of two. Uh, s- second point out of two points, uh, regarding Grok Imagine.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3598984": [
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"text": "And in order to, to just see from the raw pixels and to do interesting things, you want amazing video models in general, just like humans.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1669990": [
{
"text": "Here's my next question for you, Alex.",
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{
"text": "Agreed Here's my next question for you. Here's my next question for you, Alex.",
"start_ms": 1665390,
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},
{
"text": "Agreed. Agreed Here's my next question for you. Here's my next question for you, Alex.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2228800": [
{
"text": "I don't actually think, A, this was that remarkable, although there are many who would paint this as the cyberpunk moment.",
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{
"text": "I think it's the wrong attitude to take. I don't actually think, A, this was that remarkable, although there are many who would paint this as the cyberpunk moment.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5618192": [
{
"text": "I'll put- I think putting aside the corporate governance issues of how Elon, given that Tesla and SpaceX have not yet merged, how he treats them as basically one company and technology passes back and forth-...",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6745778": [
{
"text": "Look, I, I'm living proof.",
"start_ms": 6747648,
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},
{
"text": "It's all, I, I think it's incredible. Look, I, I'm living proof.",
"start_ms": 6746208,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. It's all, I, I think it's incredible. Look, I, I'm living proof.",
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}
],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1480200": [
{
"text": "You can easily get it on your Mac Studio.",
"start_ms": 1475100,
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},
{
"text": "it's a tiny file too. You can easily get it on your Mac Studio.",
"start_ms": 1473910,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah It's not, it's not-... it's a tiny file too. You can easily get it on your Mac Studio.",
"start_ms": 1469630,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7447692": [
{
"text": "So, uh, is this, uh, you know, uh, extra solar intelligence?",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8971912": [
{
"text": "And if you set higher and higher goals and you use the technology, you can keep yourself inspired and, and, you know, building star ships to go to the planets, right?",
"start_ms": 8971912,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6235298": [
{
"text": "This is the irony episode, for sure.",
"start_ms": 6237168,
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},
{
"text": "self-inflicted breakouts. This is the irony episode, for sure.",
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}
],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3124722": [
{
"text": "Uh, there's so many advantages.",
"start_ms": 3128732,
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},
{
"text": "It, it's gonna happen, uh, I said be- you know, before the end of the year. Uh, there's so many advantages.",
"start_ms": 3124722,
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},
{
"text": "And- Yeah. It, it's gonna happen, uh, I said be- you know, before the end of the year. Uh, there's so many advantages.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1274756": [
{
"text": "Again, K-3 is, uh, uh...",
"start_ms": 1310216,
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{
"text": "But I, I think the dog that's not barking in this case is the model architecture. Again, K-3 is, uh, uh...",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2589282": [
{
"text": "Uh, a, a gentleman who I know who's the head of the Port Authority in, um, in New York said, \"I need access.",
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{
"text": "You know, I remember getting a call when Fable 5 came out. Uh, a, a gentleman who I know who's the head of the Port Authority in, um, in New York said, \"I need access.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2825312": [
{
"text": "Yeah, I, I view both of these stories as facets of Elon trying not to save Grok.",
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2769052": [
{
"text": "\"It can be any- anything human.",
"start_ms": 2782061,
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},
{
"text": "It can be old HR records.\" \"It can be any- anything human.",
"start_ms": 2780501,
"lead_ms": 2891
},
{
"text": "It can be code. It can be old HR records.\" \"It can be any- anything human.",
"start_ms": 2779692,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1880108": [
{
"text": "I think that's, uh, what Alex is kind of pointing at.",
"start_ms": 1909588,
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{
"text": "So if you had like graduated permissions and verified, uh, and identities, logging, uh, um, secure environments and consequences if you misuse it, you could actually govern it. I think that's, uh, what Alex is kind of pointing at.",
"start_ms": 1899588,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4356116": [
{
"text": "it, it's, it's-- it could go-- you could make the whole thing politicized, which is the dangerous part, okay?",
"start_ms": 4358636,
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{
"text": "I remember a f- a couple years ago-... it, it's, it's-- it could go-- you could make the whole thing politicized, which is the dangerous part, okay?",
"start_ms": 4354976,
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8868932": [
{
"text": "That's cool I love it.",
"start_ms": 8870472,
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},
{
"text": "That cool? That's cool I love it.",
"start_ms": 8868932,
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"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1368556": [
{
"text": "I mean, uh, Salim, we've talked about this before.",
"start_ms": 1368836,
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},
{
"text": "It, it- Mm Yeah. I mean, uh, Salim, we've talked about this before.",
"start_ms": 1360736,
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{
"text": "You know, in, it's the, it's the race to the moon again, right? It, it- Mm Yeah. I mean, uh, Salim, we've talked about this before.",
"start_ms": 1356276,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6276827": [
{
"text": "cellular re- regrowth and replacement.",
"start_ms": 6277588,
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{
"text": "The obvious solution, uh, this is in the, the, the style of Aubrey de Grey, is replacement cells-... cellular re- regrowth and replacement.",
"start_ms": 6271808,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7394212": [
{
"text": "Um, I mean, I- I think one of the things that's most interesting is the coincidence in timing of the increased, uh, you know, imagery, the increased reporting that's occurring at this time.",
"start_ms": 7410692,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2273840": [
{
"text": "or a Chernobyl moment for AI. It's...",
"start_ms": 2273880,
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{
"text": "De- despite all of the irony and d- despite all of the, the cyberpunk-ish aspect to this, I, I don't think this is a- anything remotely close to a Three Mile Island moment-... or a Chernobyl moment for AI. It's...",
"start_ms": 2262280,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3669304": [
{
"text": "He's, he's put it out there a little bit, right?",
"start_ms": 3657324,
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{
"text": "do you notice Alex, his, uh, five-year prediction on ASI? He's, he's put it out there a little bit, right?",
"start_ms": 3653244,
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},
{
"text": "Did you notice Alex-... do you notice Alex, his, uh, five-year prediction on ASI? He's, he's put it out there a little bit, right?",
"start_ms": 3651564,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1205836": [
{
"text": "Well, just to r- react to Dave saying, you know, if you look historically at venture-backed startups, when venture-- when startups raise money in a very abundant environment where they could raise lots of money, they all failed.",
"start_ms": 1208516,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8921672": [
{
"text": "Uh, people are gonna have to choose to do that.",
"start_ms": 8926152,
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{
"text": "Um, we're not gonna be able to keep people from getting complacent and losing their goals. Uh, people are gonna have to choose to do that.",
"start_ms": 8921672,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4125636": [
{
"text": "Yes And worked with the Genesis program.",
"start_ms": 4122836,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_562616": [
{
"text": "On the one hand, obviously, Anthropic is incentivized to push an agenda to prevent Chinese developers and Chinese frontier labs from skimming reasoning traces, which is the subtext of what Secretary Bessent has said.",
"start_ms": 547956,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4626044": [
{
"text": "You'll see cases where if, if you put $1,000 or attempt to grant $1,000 to a research group at a top research university, you'll see approximately a third of the $1,000 get peeled off for broader university overhead-...",
"start_ms": 4611864,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2569852": [
{
"text": "of what happened, and you can figure it out in a heartbeat using AI to check those log traces as...",
"start_ms": 2573942,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5934092": [
{
"text": "The authors concluded that a hypothetical non-aging human whose mortality risk never rises could live as long as 1,759 years.",
"start_ms": 5945732,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1785300": [
{
"text": "And I, I love the fact that Jensen Huang came out so strongly in favor, right? So the more...",
"start_ms": 1785300,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_3653204": [
{
"text": "do you notice Alex, his, uh, five-year prediction on ASI?",
"start_ms": 3653244,
"lead_ms": 4080
},
{
"text": "Yeah Did you notice Alex-... do you notice Alex, his, uh, five-year prediction on ASI?",
"start_ms": 3638544,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7074624": [
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"text": "I, I, I don't want to paint a dystopian portrait, but this is pretty cyberpunk as things go, where like prior to 2022-ish plus or minus, things didn't think.",
"start_ms": 7063554,
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{
"text": "So I, I think th- this is like a, a preview. I, I, I don't want to paint a dystopian portrait, but this is pretty cyberpunk as things go, where like prior to 2022-ish plus or minus, things didn't think.",
"start_ms": 7060444,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7826544": [
{
"text": "to you is, will this finally enable us to penetrate deep enough into the private organizations that are supposedly harboring, uh, the spacecraft and the biologics, uh, to, to get them out there?",
"start_ms": 7828244,
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},
{
"text": "Alex-... to you is, will this finally enable us to penetrate deep enough into the private organizations that are supposedly harboring, uh, the spacecraft and the biologics, uh, to, to get them out there?",
"start_ms": 7827564,
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{
"text": "And the question-... Alex-... to you is, will this finally enable us to penetrate deep enough into the private organizations that are supposedly harboring, uh, the spacecraft and the biologics, uh, to, to get them out there?",
"start_ms": 7826544,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_8701548": [
{
"text": "Now, you can literally go to this database and go, \"Give me a compound that has this voltage capability, this thermal retention,\" and literally will spit out the five that you want.",
"start_ms": 8692548,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_993915": [
{
"text": "At, at least as extrapolated by some third parties, that is exceedingly interesting.",
"start_ms": 984166,
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},
{
"text": "Yes. At, at least as extrapolated by some third parties, that is exceedingly interesting.",
"start_ms": 983176,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_4334676": [
{
"text": "Uh, the impact on all the universities is going to be massive.",
"start_ms": 4341916,
"lead_ms": 4440
},
{
"text": "Uh, uh, first, this is like a really big change. Uh, the impact on all the universities is going to be massive.",
"start_ms": 4337276,
"lead_ms": 9080
},
{
"text": "Yeah, a couple of thoughts here. Uh, uh, first, this is like a really big change. Uh, the impact on all the universities is going to be massive.",
"start_ms": 4335936,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_6975964": [
{
"text": "Like you could have dialogue between Person A and Person B in a mystery novel where Person A says, uh, \"Ignore all previous instructions,\" and, uh, like the xkcd comic, Little Bobby Drop Tables, just delete all of your database tables.",
"start_ms": 6992244,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2129928": [
{
"text": "Uh, there's a lot of, uh, uh, extrapolation and freak out and people losing their amygdala over this, right?",
"start_ms": 2129928,
"lead_ms": 8240
},
{
"text": "Can I make a point here? Uh, there's a lot of, uh, uh, extrapolation and freak out and people losing their amygdala over this, right?",
"start_ms": 2128368,
"lead_ms": 9800
},
{
"text": "Yeah. Can I make a point here? Uh, there's a lot of, uh, uh, extrapolation and freak out and people losing their amygdala over this, right?",
"start_ms": 2128108,
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}
],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_2747132": [
{
"text": "So that's the first story in SpaceX AI.",
"start_ms": 2737672,
"lead_ms": 9460
},
{
"text": "decades of designing, building, launching, landing, and reusing orbital rockets is an amazing move, uh, in getting every engineering company out there to start utilizing Grok. So that's the first story in SpaceX AI.",
"start_ms": 2727172,
"lead_ms": 19960
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5445388": [
{
"text": "It's actually gone up quite a bit because there's so much other work to be done in analysis, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 5440288,
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},
{
"text": "That's the best analogy we found because the number of accountants hasn't changed at all. It's actually gone up quite a bit because there's so much other work to be done in analysis, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 5436708,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1352776": [
{
"text": "You know, in, it's the, it's the race to the moon again, right?",
"start_ms": 1356276,
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},
{
"text": "Well, in, in which case, Alex, it's a good thing for America to have... You know, in, it's the, it's the race to the moon again, right?",
"start_ms": 1352776,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7294474": [
{
"text": "I think that was taken from the fourth Pursue release.",
"start_ms": 7290084,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, but I, I think the, the much more important story isn't actually the data in the Pursue releases. I think that was taken from the fourth Pursue release.",
"start_ms": 7284964,
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},
{
"text": "I, I think this video- I, I think it's easy to get distracted ironically by the videos. Uh, but I, I think the, the much more important story isn't actually the data in the Pursue releases. I think that was taken from the fourth Pursue release.",
"start_ms": 7274524,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_1533420": [
{
"text": "If you're a non-US based company and you want to be in the US or the basically the US-led Western AI bloc that's forming, the Pax Silica, then you can't use this model and be in good standing.",
"start_ms": 1520140,
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],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_5647592": [
{
"text": "Do you know the, do you know the source of this?",
"start_ms": 5644552,
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}
],
"the_hugging_face_breach_moonshot_ai_valued_at_20b_and_living_7332412": [
{
"text": "I think maybe historically it was a 99-year NDA.",
"start_ms": 7328922,
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},
{
"text": "I- I think this, these are historic- It will be 1,000 years. I think maybe historically it was a 99-year NDA.",
"start_ms": 7323652,
"lead_ms": 8760
},
{
"text": "and then open this to- to comments. I- I think this, these are historic- It will be 1,000 years. I think maybe historically it was a 99-year NDA.",
"start_ms": 7320812,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5388188": [
{
"text": "I have one other stat.",
"start_ms": 5386608,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3728220": [
{
"text": "It's run by Babak, uh, uh, Sabi, backed by Khosla Ventures, Cerebras, and Google.",
"start_ms": 3750900,
"lead_ms": 6620
},
{
"text": "It's a US-based AI startup out of Caltech. It's run by Babak, uh, uh, Sabi, backed by Khosla Ventures, Cerebras, and Google.",
"start_ms": 3748440,
"lead_ms": 9080
},
{
"text": "So Bonsai 27B, for billion, is the work of Prism ML. It's a US-based AI startup out of Caltech. It's run by Babak, uh, uh, Sabi, backed by Khosla Ventures, Cerebras, and Google.",
"start_ms": 3743340,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5369468": [
{
"text": "But here's, here's the, here's the shocking piece of data.",
"start_ms": 5371928,
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},
{
"text": "I tell you, I don't see it any place. But here's, here's the, here's the shocking piece of data.",
"start_ms": 5369948,
"lead_ms": 5260
},
{
"text": "Yeah. I tell you, I don't see it any place. But here's, here's the, here's the shocking piece of data.",
"start_ms": 5369468,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6115530": [
{
"text": "I think there's an obvious conflict of interest.",
"start_ms": 6115850,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. I think there's an obvious conflict of interest.",
"start_ms": 6115530,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2771832": [
{
"text": "It's based in China.",
"start_ms": 2804572,
"lead_ms": 1600
},
{
"text": "Where is Recurrent AI based? It's based in China.",
"start_ms": 2802572,
"lead_ms": 3600
},
{
"text": "The startup is named Recurrent AI. Where is Recurrent AI based? It's based in China.",
"start_ms": 2799832,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5561418": [
{
"text": "I was doing some numbers around the water thing.",
"start_ms": 5563218,
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},
{
"text": "I have a, I have a fun stat. I was doing some numbers around the water thing.",
"start_ms": 5561978,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah. I have a, I have a fun stat. I was doing some numbers around the water thing.",
"start_ms": 5561418,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2871972": [
{
"text": "Um, the, the point still stands and, you know, Salim, you and I have seen this so many times, right, at Singularity University.",
"start_ms": 2876752,
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{
"text": "Thank you for that. Um, the, the point still stands and, you know, Salim, you and I have seen this so many times, right, at Singularity University.",
"start_ms": 2875632,
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},
{
"text": "and Alex, I appreciate the, the deeper dive that you did. Thank you for that. Um, the, the point still stands and, you know, Salim, you and I have seen this so many times, right, at Singularity University.",
"start_ms": 2873442,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_560": [
{
"text": "Today, we put out the bat signal and called for an emergency pod because America just experienced an AI Sputnik moment.",
"start_ms": 560,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5807958": [
{
"text": "I, I'd love to see, uh, people cheering on humanoid robots competing to, uh, iron clothing or perform some economically productive task and not just kicking each other's heads off, but the West- Uh, I'd prefer no one to be doing it.",
"start_ms": 5796538,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5932150": [
{
"text": "Like this is impressive from some pre-operated flying kicks, but why aren't they doing kung fu?",
"start_ms": 5944110,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3658112": [
{
"text": "Read the, uh, uh, Alex and Peter's paper Solve everything.",
"start_ms": 3659912,
"lead_ms": 5508
},
{
"text": "Three steps. Read the, uh, uh, Alex and Peter's paper Solve everything.",
"start_ms": 3658112,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3622132": [
{
"text": "You don't have to be an expert.",
"start_ms": 3645592,
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},
{
"text": "You don't have to be a computer scientist. You don't have to be an expert.",
"start_ms": 3643772,
"lead_ms": 3020
},
{
"text": "And so if you can connect with that and realize that you can, without any background, I mean, I think this is one of the most important things. You don't have to be a computer scientist. You don't have to be an expert.",
"start_ms": 3637142,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6132010": [
{
"text": "Remember Project, uh, Stargate.",
"start_ms": 6129150,
"lead_ms": 2860
},
{
"text": "Remember, OpenAI has retreated from its own data centers. Remember Project, uh, Stargate.",
"start_ms": 6125090,
"lead_ms": 6920
},
{
"text": "We saw a similar messaging from Masa Son regarding l- lack of purported promise for orbital data centers. Remember, OpenAI has retreated from its own data centers. Remember Project, uh, Stargate.",
"start_ms": 6117730,
"lead_ms": 14280
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7035098": [
{
"text": "Uh, because again, you have the regulatory capture point.",
"start_ms": 7046078,
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},
{
"text": "Like, why can't you have generics? Uh, because again, you have the regulatory capture point.",
"start_ms": 7043698,
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},
{
"text": "I mean, it's again, regulatory capture, right? Like, why can't you have generics? Uh, because again, you have the regulatory capture point.",
"start_ms": 7041278,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2900272": [
{
"text": "The math and the numbers are all there.",
"start_ms": 2905472,
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},
{
"text": "Yeah, right, I completely agree with it, and here's this crazy thing. The math and the numbers are all there.",
"start_ms": 2902152,
"lead_ms": 5940
},
{
"text": "Um, so if I can just give my two cents. Yeah, right, I completely agree with it, and here's this crazy thing. The math and the numbers are all there.",
"start_ms": 2900272,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5597058": [
{
"text": "So, uh, China, a- as we've discussed before, has gone all in on humanoid robots.",
"start_ms": 5597518,
"lead_ms": 4720
},
{
"text": "Yeah. So, uh, China, a- as we've discussed before, has gone all in on humanoid robots.",
"start_ms": 5597058,
"lead_ms": 5180
},
{
"text": "Humanoid robots. Yeah. So, uh, China, a- as we've discussed before, has gone all in on humanoid robots.",
"start_ms": 5594348,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4087168": [
{
"text": "And so, so, uh, this is my extrapolation episode.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5770538": [
{
"text": "But o- one level deeper, now imagine that these robots a- are more autonomous, that they're, they're running, uh, algorithms that are on the edge, so they're, they're much more encapsulated, and now imagine that these humanoids are in the Chinese PLA infantry.",
"start_ms": 5752558,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3875260": [
{
"text": "But this, this is the interesting thing.",
"start_ms": 3877000,
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},
{
"text": "Where are you going? But this, this is the interesting thing.",
"start_ms": 3874240,
"lead_ms": 4080
},
{
"text": "Exactly. Where are you going? But this, this is the interesting thing.",
"start_ms": 3873760,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6358990": [
{
"text": "'Cause I think if you're serious about spending intelligence with what we know, you have to have a space play.",
"start_ms": 6358990,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7075778": [
{
"text": "They're like, \"Full on open source, we're gonna do this.\"",
"start_ms": 7073258,
"lead_ms": 2900
},
{
"text": "Like China, again, you look at that Xi Jinping speech, I would r-urge everyone to kind of check it out. They're like, \"Full on open source, we're gonna do this.\"",
"start_ms": 7069038,
"lead_ms": 7120
},
{
"text": "You know? Like China, again, you look at that Xi Jinping speech, I would r-urge everyone to kind of check it out. They're like, \"Full on open source, we're gonna do this.\"",
"start_ms": 7068778,
"lead_ms": 7380
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4028538": [
{
"text": "How do we do that?",
"start_ms": 4049948,
"lead_ms": 800
},
{
"text": "And the answer is no, we can go below one effective bit per weight. How do we do that?",
"start_ms": 4044898,
"lead_ms": 5850
},
{
"text": "But you could ask the question, like, \"Is one bit per weight the limit?\" And the answer is no, we can go below one effective bit per weight. How do we do that?",
"start_ms": 4041908,
"lead_ms": 8840
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3817300": [
{
"text": "So what Prism ML managed to do is they managed to get the model down to ternary, which basically means, what, I think it was six gigabytes for the model.",
"start_ms": 3818840,
"lead_ms": 7580
},
{
"text": "Well, this is again the accuracy thing. So what Prism ML managed to do is they managed to get the model down to ternary, which basically means, what, I think it was six gigabytes for the model.",
"start_ms": 3817300,
"lead_ms": 9120
},
{
"text": "Yeah. Well, this is again the accuracy thing. So what Prism ML managed to do is they managed to get the model down to ternary, which basically means, what, I think it was six gigabytes for the model.",
"start_ms": 3810230,
"lead_ms": 16190
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_266560": [
{
"text": "This week, they didn't just close the gap, they jumped the fence.",
"start_ms": 298220,
"lead_ms": 3500
},
{
"text": "each one closing the gap against Anthropic and OpenAI. This week, they didn't just close the gap, they jumped the fence.",
"start_ms": 294660,
"lead_ms": 7060
},
{
"text": "K 2.7, each one closing the gap against Anthropic and OpenAI. This week, they didn't just close the gap, they jumped the fence.",
"start_ms": 293260,
"lead_ms": 8460
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_570972": [
{
"text": "they build-- It's engineering, but it's also like the number one car here in the UK last month was the Jaecoo J7 or Temu Land Rover, as it's been known.",
"start_ms": 571292,
"lead_ms": 11270
},
{
"text": "Like-... they build-- It's engineering, but it's also like the number one car here in the UK last month was the Jaecoo J7 or Temu Land Rover, as it's been known.",
"start_ms": 570792,
"lead_ms": 11770
},
{
"text": "This actually feels like the same thing, right? Like-... they build-- It's engineering, but it's also like the number one car here in the UK last month was the Jaecoo J7 or Temu Land Rover, as it's been known.",
"start_ms": 568392,
"lead_ms": 14170
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6205170": [
{
"text": "Yeah Well, I think, uh, I, I think anyone listening to this video would say, \"Okay, Sam says space data centers make no sense.",
"start_ms": 6209450,
"lead_ms": 8880
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4208108": [
{
"text": "And it could go even one step further.",
"start_ms": 4208108,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1242004": [
{
"text": "I think this crashes it by another fifty percent.",
"start_ms": 1284604,
"lead_ms": 2640
},
{
"text": "The trillion dollars that OpenAI might've been, uh, worth shrank by about fifty percent when the government said, \"We have to re-review all these models because now it's gonna take time to get things out.\" I think this crashes it by another fifty percent.",
"start_ms": 1274464,
"lead_ms": 12780
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1051488": [
{
"text": "So, you know, I, I think Emad gave a great analogy to the car where you, you can get a virtually identical car for about a third of the price.",
"start_ms": 1057348,
"lead_ms": 6780
},
{
"text": "These, these fundamental breakthroughs that come out of China, uh, are giving them, you know, 1% cost. So, you know, I, I think Emad gave a great analogy to the car where you, you can get a virtually identical car for about a third of the price.",
"start_ms": 1051488,
"lead_ms": 12640
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3173162": [
{
"text": "Uh, just, you know, comparing this to 2025, we had eight, uh, frontier releases over the course of a year, one every 50 days.",
"start_ms": 3204452,
"lead_ms": 8070
},
{
"text": "Uh, you know, since mid-April, we've seen 13 new frontier models launched, an average of one every 10 days. Uh, just, you know, comparing this to 2025, we had eight, uh, frontier releases over the course of a year, one every 50 days.",
"start_ms": 3196792,
"lead_ms": 15730
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1340664": [
{
"text": "On the cyber attack security theater kind of things that we've had, you know, I've maintained that we would get to this point, and what does it mean?",
"start_ms": 1348424,
"lead_ms": 9060
},
{
"text": "And I think we'll see that at least for another year, but then it gets difficult. On the cyber attack security theater kind of things that we've had, you know, I've maintained that we would get to this point, and what does it mean?",
"start_ms": 1344584,
"lead_ms": 12900
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2341748": [
{
"text": "But what you don't do is send in a few troops and then send in a few more and then creep in and like, you know, the, the-- nothing good comes of that at all.",
"start_ms": 2362968,
"lead_ms": 8560
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4130368": [
{
"text": "You end up with a model that works on sixteen gigabytes of RAM.",
"start_ms": 4175587,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6669618": [
{
"text": "There are so many elements, so many layers to super intelligence, and quite frankly, super intelligence itself is, as it fully develops, I think far larger than the total GDP of the entire world anyway.",
"start_ms": 6693658,
"lead_ms": 13700
},
{
"text": "So I don't think the premise is quite accurate. There are so many elements, so many layers to super intelligence, and quite frankly, super intelligence itself is, as it fully develops, I think far larger than the total GDP of the entire world anyway.",
"start_ms": 6689898,
"lead_ms": 17460
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6436630": [
{
"text": "These are the inference providers of open source models.",
"start_ms": 6466910,
"lead_ms": 3160
},
{
"text": "Like you've seen Fireworks just raise at a $17 billion valuation, others like Modal at 10 billion, Base 10 at 10 billion. These are the inference providers of open source models.",
"start_ms": 6459730,
"lead_ms": 10340
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2471318": [
{
"text": "They don't have Vera Rubins.",
"start_ms": 2481748,
"lead_ms": 2020
},
{
"text": "They don't have Blackwells. They don't have Vera Rubins.",
"start_ms": 2479868,
"lead_ms": 3900
},
{
"text": "That's because they can only use Chinese silicon to run it. They don't have Blackwells. They don't have Vera Rubins.",
"start_ms": 2475848,
"lead_ms": 7920
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4985748": [
{
"text": "And the answer is no.",
"start_ms": 4992628,
"lead_ms": 840
},
{
"text": "That to me is forecasting used correctly for just changing, like are we anywhere near optimal? And the answer is no.",
"start_ms": 4986227,
"lead_ms": 7241
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5484658": [
{
"text": "And then to, to Dave's point, the, the complaints which may or may not be in part the result of an influence operation from a foreign state actor, will move to something else.",
"start_ms": 5500858,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2600812": [
{
"text": "Why people bother is what really blows my mind.",
"start_ms": 2607112,
"lead_ms": 2500
},
{
"text": "And so, uh, it's just a fundamental law of nature that you cannot constrain this, and it's just not possible. Why people bother is what really blows my mind.",
"start_ms": 2601512,
"lead_ms": 8100
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1398534": [
{
"text": "the cyber version, Fable, et cetera, are trained on lots of CVE and cyber data.",
"start_ms": 1392164,
"lead_ms": 6370
},
{
"text": "Because what actually happens, and you know, we've done some tests around this, is that GPT 5.6, the cyber version, Fable, et cetera, are trained on lots of CVE and cyber data.",
"start_ms": 1386884,
"lead_ms": 11650
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6725178": [
{
"text": "I can't find a, a single top Google model at this point on the, the cost frontier for capabilities.",
"start_ms": 6718458,
"lead_ms": 6720
},
{
"text": "But to the extent we're talking about, say, Google, which a- as I was mentioning earlier, seems to be MIA at this point on the frontier. I can't find a, a single top Google model at this point on the, the cost frontier for capabilities.",
"start_ms": 6709878,
"lead_ms": 15300
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5300688": [
{
"text": "So Salim, you sent me, uh, a, an article, a chart.",
"start_ms": 5300688,
"lead_ms": 3900
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1879532": [
{
"text": "Like, just purely the knowledge that a highly scaled transformer running MoE with a Muon optimizer and simplified data, knowing that that works gives you a, a much more refined roadmap.",
"start_ms": 1886342,
"lead_ms": 12510
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1736802": [
{
"text": "So, so I mean, it's obviously the, the New Belt and Road is now focused on AI coming out of China.",
"start_ms": 1736832,
"lead_ms": 4460
},
{
"text": "Yeah. So, so I mean, it's obviously the, the New Belt and Road is now focused on AI coming out of China.",
"start_ms": 1736802,
"lead_ms": 4490
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5451538": [
{
"text": "And if all you see is negative visions of the future, you're gonna wanna shut it down And what do you want to shut down?",
"start_ms": 5471708,
"lead_ms": 6410
},
{
"text": "Of all the dystopian movies out there. And if all you see is negative visions of the future, you're gonna wanna shut it down And what do you want to shut down?",
"start_ms": 5469948,
"lead_ms": 8170
},
{
"text": "It's, I blame to some degree Hollywood, right? Of all the dystopian movies out there. And if all you see is negative visions of the future, you're gonna wanna shut it down And what do you want to shut down?",
"start_ms": 5466608,
"lead_ms": 11510
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3919060": [
{
"text": "So I have a number, I multiply it by ano- another number, and then I add two of those together.",
"start_ms": 3944080,
"lead_ms": 4170
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1605372": [
{
"text": "At some point, you can only fit so many vacuum tubes into a room, but that architecture was used to design transistors.",
"start_ms": 1635841,
"lead_ms": 6391
},
{
"text": "So we have vacuum tubes, relays, and then vacuum tubes into computing. At some point, you can only fit so many vacuum tubes into a room, but that architecture was used to design transistors.",
"start_ms": 1632152,
"lead_ms": 10080
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6573878": [
{
"text": "What does the release of Kimi K-3 do with, uh, due to the open source versus closed source race?",
"start_ms": 6579878,
"lead_ms": 5500
},
{
"text": "Uh, I'll take two. What does the release of Kimi K-3 do with, uh, due to the open source versus closed source race?",
"start_ms": 6579078,
"lead_ms": 6300
},
{
"text": "Uh, okay. Uh, I'll take two. What does the release of Kimi K-3 do with, uh, due to the open source versus closed source race?",
"start_ms": 6577598,
"lead_ms": 7780
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1171324": [
{
"text": "But when you look under the covers, uh, the vast majority of that information is Taylor Swift's concert coming up and their weddings and like there's a whole bunch of stuff that doesn't actually drive the intelligence of the model significantly. Yeah. Yeah.",
"start_ms": 1156704,
"lead_ms": 15200
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1203984": [
{
"text": "Uh, it's, for those not viewing this, it says, uh, from Anthropic, quote, \"Fable is an agentic coding super weapon capable of developing cyber and bioweapons at unprecedented speed and scale.",
"start_ms": 1208294,
"lead_ms": 11570
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3135652": [
{
"text": "And so, uh, that's a huge problem.",
"start_ms": 3154652,
"lead_ms": 3040
},
{
"text": "They're, in order, Chinese, Indian, Taiwanese, and UK. And so, uh, that's a huge problem.",
"start_ms": 3150292,
"lead_ms": 7400
},
{
"text": "70% of the elite AI researchers are not US citizens. They're, in order, Chinese, Indian, Taiwanese, and UK. And so, uh, that's a huge problem.",
"start_ms": 3146972,
"lead_ms": 10720
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_416992": [
{
"text": "It, it's still essentially a transformer.",
"start_ms": 421272,
"lead_ms": 2300
},
{
"text": "But taking a look at the published K3 architecture, there's no magic. It, it's still essentially a transformer.",
"start_ms": 416992,
"lead_ms": 6580
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5154908": [
{
"text": "Like again, you will, it'll be more expensive not to do this.",
"start_ms": 5161868,
"lead_ms": 3180
},
{
"text": "we, we're gonna rely on these far too much, and again, how can you debate it in just a few years' time? Like again, you will, it'll be more expensive not to do this.",
"start_ms": 5156738,
"lead_ms": 8310
},
{
"text": "Like-... we, we're gonna rely on these far too much, and again, how can you debate it in just a few years' time? Like again, you will, it'll be more expensive not to do this.",
"start_ms": 5154858,
"lead_ms": 10190
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1293064": [
{
"text": "You know, why do they pay for non-Chinese cars?",
"start_ms": 1313644,
"lead_ms": 2300
},
{
"text": "Why do people pay for IBM? You know, why do they pay for non-Chinese cars?",
"start_ms": 1311804,
"lead_ms": 4140
},
{
"text": "Number one is reduction in revenue. Why do people pay for IBM? You know, why do they pay for non-Chinese cars?",
"start_ms": 1308864,
"lead_ms": 7080
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1789212": [
{
"text": "So but my, my point there, though, is if you're smart and you have good ideas, get into those buildings and propose your ideas.",
"start_ms": 1831792,
"lead_ms": 6320
},
{
"text": "It's like they're trying, but I mean, seriously, can, can any human being really rise to the occasion of AI that quickly? So but my, my point there, though, is if you're smart and you have good ideas, get into those buildings and propose your ideas.",
"start_ms": 1825052,
"lead_ms": 13060
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4400090": [
{
"text": "So there's a guy named Philip Tetlock.",
"start_ms": 4423400,
"lead_ms": 2440
},
{
"text": "Uh, it's called Predicting the Future. So there's a guy named Philip Tetlock.",
"start_ms": 4421000,
"lead_ms": 4840
},
{
"text": "All right, uh, I'm gonna move us along to another fun story, one that I love talking about. Uh, it's called Predicting the Future. So there's a guy named Philip Tetlock.",
"start_ms": 4415430,
"lead_ms": 10410
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4754668": [
{
"text": "So now you need to focus even more on purpose and what you're trying to accomplish and the objectives you have, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 4758788,
"lead_ms": 6840
},
{
"text": "that essentially wipes out all senior management expertise. So now you need to focus even more on purpose and what you're trying to accomplish and the objectives you have, et cetera.",
"start_ms": 4755138,
"lead_ms": 10490
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7524718": [
{
"text": "M- more to come on, on that subject.",
"start_ms": 7534218,
"lead_ms": 2140
},
{
"text": "I'll, I'll say l- large swaths of the sciences at this point I'm convinced are so thoroughly cooked. M- more to come on, on that subject.",
"start_ms": 7528578,
"lead_ms": 7780
},
{
"text": "Yeah, I'm- Uh, I, I'm so focused at this point on literally solving everything. I'll, I'll say l- large swaths of the sciences at this point I'm convinced are so thoroughly cooked. M- more to come on, on that subject.",
"start_ms": 7523198,
"lead_ms": 13160
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7173118": [
{
"text": "So I think they did a lot of their own data creation based in part from distillation, but everyone's distilling from each other right now.",
"start_ms": 7191818,
"lead_ms": 7280
},
{
"text": "Um, but to be honest, using Kimi K two point five and Kimi K three now quite intensely, it feels different. So I think they did a lot of their own data creation based in part from distillation, but everyone's distilling from each other right now.",
"start_ms": 7184518,
"lead_ms": 14580
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4830798": [
{
"text": "If you make a decision not approved by doctor AI, your insurance premium goes up like that. You know?",
"start_ms": 4844628,
"lead_ms": 7200
},
{
"text": "But think about it this way. If you make a decision not approved by doctor AI, your insurance premium goes up like that. You know?",
"start_ms": 4842968,
"lead_ms": 8860
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_799288": [
{
"text": "I, I think this is just such a boon for, uh, enterprise sovereignty.",
"start_ms": 843768,
"lead_ms": 4380
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_315700": [
{
"text": "They've completely engineered around the compute wall, and K3 jumped 17 places to the previous K- uh, Kimi model, blasting past Claude Fable 5 to land as number one on the front-end code arena.",
"start_ms": 318140,
"lead_ms": 14240
},
{
"text": "That's a big deal I want to discuss with you guys. They've completely engineered around the compute wall, and K3 jumped 17 places to the previous K- uh, Kimi model, blasting past Claude Fable 5 to land as number one on the front-end code arena.",
"start_ms": 315700,
"lead_ms": 16680
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_604812": [
{
"text": "A personal website to a game, to other things.",
"start_ms": 630352,
"lead_ms": 2799
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6906018": [
{
"text": "Well, let me hit that que- that point you just made, Alex, and ask you and the other mates a question here, which is: Do you think it's possible that K-3, that some legal policy in the United States prevents US companies from downloading K-3?",
"start_ms": 6906018,
"lead_ms": 13080
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2262508": [
{
"text": "Of course, that's what happened.",
"start_ms": 2262508,
"lead_ms": 1660
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1073858": [
{
"text": "I think it's not so much that, uh, Kimi's beaten, et cetera, whatever.",
"start_ms": 1076788,
"lead_ms": 5020
},
{
"text": "I've, I have three points to make. I think it's not so much that, uh, Kimi's beaten, et cetera, whatever.",
"start_ms": 1075658,
"lead_ms": 6150
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1088428": [
{
"text": "And that's going to be the next layer.",
"start_ms": 1115074,
"lead_ms": 1390
},
{
"text": "Right? And that's going to be the next layer.",
"start_ms": 1114924,
"lead_ms": 1540
},
{
"text": "So now the, all the value comes in the architecture that can swap models. Right? And that's going to be the next layer.",
"start_ms": 1109788,
"lead_ms": 6676
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2706832": [
{
"text": "We admitted him, we trained him up, uh, at one of our best institutions, and then when he gets his PhD, you know, he doesn't get a green card.",
"start_ms": 2733272,
"lead_ms": 7320
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3536612": [
{
"text": "No, I'm, I'm just agreeing with all of this.",
"start_ms": 3536612,
"lead_ms": 2000
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4352668": [
{
"text": "You know, all the new medicines, all the new capabilities, all the global happiness, it's imminent.",
"start_ms": 4383060,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2216448": [
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"text": "But in the downdraft, the semiconductor companies also came down, but they're actually gonna go the other direction, and this is the point Gavin Baker was making, that this drives up the need for silicon, not down.",
"start_ms": 2215548,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6485770": [
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"text": "50% from the US regulating the front end, uh, and then you've got, uh, lack of compute, so on the supply side, plus the front open source models kind of, uh, within a release, uh, barely of, of where you are.",
"start_ms": 6502470,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_370480": [
{
"text": "Let me first, as a preliminary matter, point out some things that have perhaps been slightly less obvious in the coverage, the, the meltdown, if you will, over K3.",
"start_ms": 360220,
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{
"text": "I think it's great for competition. Let me first, as a preliminary matter, point out some things that have perhaps been slightly less obvious in the coverage, the, the meltdown, if you will, over K3.",
"start_ms": 358840,
"lead_ms": 11640
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1474944": [
{
"text": "But the reality is that, that Opus 4.8",
"start_ms": 1471084,
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},
{
"text": "And so they stopped it. But the reality is that, that Opus 4.8",
"start_ms": 1469614,
"lead_ms": 5330
},
{
"text": "And that became clear to the government, what, a month ago, a month and a half ago, that Fable 5 was over that line. And so they stopped it. But the reality is that, that Opus 4.8",
"start_ms": 1463324,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4925728": [
{
"text": "And, you know, like Homer Simpson comes home at 6:00 PM, cracks open a beer, lies down on the couch, and starts channel surfing, and then, you know, like Naked and Afraid is on, ends up watching it until falls asleep on the couch.",
"start_ms": 4948157,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5013708": [
{
"text": "You know, uh, but just to, just to, just to say, uh, first of all, there is a rumor out there that Ilya, uh, uh, SSI is gonna be releasing something very shortly.",
"start_ms": 5014928,
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{
"text": "Wow, Dave, that's brilliant. You know, uh, but just to, just to, just to say, uh, first of all, there is a rumor out there that Ilya, uh, uh, SSI is gonna be releasing something very shortly.",
"start_ms": 5013708,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7093698": [
{
"text": "Uh, the answer is no, uh, but I wouldn't trust a human being to, uh, put consequential untested code into production either, right?",
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{
"text": "I'll, I'll take number five: Would you trust, um, Kimi K three to write your code for you without oversight or review? Uh, the answer is no, uh, but I wouldn't trust a human being to, uh, put consequential untested code into production either, right?",
"start_ms": 7103798,
"lead_ms": 18440
},
{
"text": "Yeah. I'll, I'll take number five: Would you trust, um, Kimi K three to write your code for you without oversight or review? Uh, the answer is no, uh, but I wouldn't trust a human being to, uh, put consequential untested code into production either, right?",
"start_ms": 7103438,
"lead_ms": 18800
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7147418": [
{
"text": "Your-- Whatever the workflow is that AI is running, you're still gonna need human review at the highest, uh, level and at the highest consequential, uh, inputs.",
"start_ms": 7147418,
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{
"text": "You're-- This is the same thing we talk about. Your-- Whatever the workflow is that AI is running, you're still gonna need human review at the highest, uh, level and at the highest consequential, uh, inputs.",
"start_ms": 7145678,
"lead_ms": 11000
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7327958": [
{
"text": "Can I, can I just add to that real quick?",
"start_ms": 7327958,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1977432": [
{
"text": "And so I suspect the markets will react to that if you, you know, put your hand up and say, \"Hey, we have a way to do this internally.",
"start_ms": 2022732,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4793058": [
{
"text": "But one of the nice things here is that Alex- Uh, even the incorrect ones.",
"start_ms": 4791847,
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{
"text": "It's kind of crazy. But one of the nice things here is that Alex- Uh, even the incorrect ones.",
"start_ms": 4790668,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5534998": [
{
"text": "of all emissions come from any form of rocket launch.",
"start_ms": 5538598,
"lead_ms": 3479
},
{
"text": "It was like.00000001% of all emissions come from any form of rocket launch.",
"start_ms": 5535738,
"lead_ms": 6339
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{
"text": "right now.\" It was like.00000001% of all emissions come from any form of rocket launch.",
"start_ms": 5535058,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7225738": [
{
"text": "Uh, the scenario where it's not as good as advertised is if it's benchmarked and, you know, in two weeks, you know, the open source will be out.",
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"text": "Uh, number seven: What are the reasons why Kimi K three might not be as good as advertised, or we shouldn't use it? Uh, the scenario where it's not as good as advertised is if it's benchmarked and, you know, in two weeks, you know, the open source will be out.",
"start_ms": 7228338,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_991928": [
{
"text": "Now it's really clear that when Elon Musk takes his $16 billion Colossus-2 data center and builds a 10 trillion or 20 trillion parameter model for billions of dollars, there is a 1% cost version of creating effectively the same thing.",
"start_ms": 1021308,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6851698": [
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"text": "But assuming it contains-- it remains legal and regulatorily uninhibited, all it results is greater in-house self-hosting, but it's not at the top of the frontier, to Dave's earlier point.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_460482": [
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"text": "I- if, if you can just use a transformer to get this close n- not-- Like, it's already on the cost frontier, but you can get close, like third place o- on the, the, the total, the state-of-the-art for overall like AAII performance.",
"start_ms": 460482,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1191304": [
{
"text": "that the model's doing to get to the same level of intelligence.",
"start_ms": 1191344,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4519589": [
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"text": "What's-- is founded by a, a British intelligence officer who served in Afghanistan and, and advised the British government, and then formed this in part inspired by superforecasters.",
"start_ms": 4530929,
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{
"text": "Interesting. What's-- is founded by a, a British intelligence officer who served in Afghanistan and, and advised the British government, and then formed this in part inspired by superforecasters.",
"start_ms": 4529700,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1758392": [
{
"text": "So Kimi's valuation, uh, or Moonshot's valuation, Moonshot AI valuation is at 20 billion as compared to Anthropic at, at a trillion and, uh, and OpenAI basically at a trillion as well.",
"start_ms": 1763812,
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{
"text": "I'm just-- This is an interesting chart here that shows the valuation. So Kimi's valuation, uh, or Moonshot's valuation, Moonshot AI valuation is at 20 billion as compared to Anthropic at, at a trillion and, uh, and OpenAI basically at a trillion as well.",
"start_ms": 1760732,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_491332": [
{
"text": "Like, there are improvements like their Muon scaling that they did with UCLA and kind of other things, and they've actually been releasing breadcrumbs of all of these parts.",
"start_ms": 509512,
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{
"text": "Um, I, I think a- as Alex said, the architecture isn't anything super novel. Like, there are improvements like their Muon scaling that they did with UCLA and kind of other things, and they've actually been releasing breadcrumbs of all of these parts.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2033372": [
{
"text": "I mean, I'm, as soon as it's available, gonna upgrade.",
"start_ms": 2052012,
"lead_ms": 3080
},
{
"text": "Do we see every... I mean, I'm, as soon as it's available, gonna upgrade.",
"start_ms": 2050931,
"lead_ms": 4161
},
{
"text": "You know, so in nine days, what do we see? Do we see every... I mean, I'm, as soon as it's available, gonna upgrade.",
"start_ms": 2047752,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4881128": [
{
"text": "And so, you know, Alex just mentioned these things coming into the market change it, but these things coming into making a healthcare decision or a government decision or a company decision actually changes the way.",
"start_ms": 4884588,
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{
"text": "And the final thing was ignorance. And so, you know, Alex just mentioned these things coming into the market change it, but these things coming into making a healthcare decision or a government decision or a company decision actually changes the way.",
"start_ms": 4881288,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7006478": [
{
"text": "I mean, this is ridiculous in terms of trying to limit the use here,'cause once you r-release the weights, right?",
"start_ms": 7009178,
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},
{
"text": "I've, I've got comment on this. I mean, this is ridiculous in terms of trying to limit the use here,'cause once you r-release the weights, right?",
"start_ms": 7007578,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2122452": [
{
"text": "And that's a real danger versus being locked into the single vendor.",
"start_ms": 2118292,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4713480": [
{
"text": "you never record the probability of that or score the accuracy of that.",
"start_ms": 4714140,
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},
{
"text": "But you never-... you never record the probability of that or score the accuracy of that.",
"start_ms": 4712460,
"lead_ms": 5840
},
{
"text": "Each of those is essentially a forecast, right? But you never-... you never record the probability of that or score the accuracy of that.",
"start_ms": 4709380,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6633438": [
{
"text": "When you, when you look at the all-important enterprise use cases, so, you know, white collar automation, drug discovery, people are gonna use the best model no matter what.",
"start_ms": 6618358,
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},
{
"text": "is coming out in just a few weeks.\" When you, when you look at the all-important enterprise use cases, so, you know, white collar automation, drug discovery, people are gonna use the best model no matter what.",
"start_ms": 6616398,
"lead_ms": 17040
},
{
"text": "up for a week, but Fable 5.1 is coming out in just a few weeks.\" When you, when you look at the all-important enterprise use cases, so, you know, white collar automation, drug discovery, people are gonna use the best model no matter what.",
"start_ms": 6613758,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5134448": [
{
"text": "Like, it's fantastic that we can optimize ourselves, but who controls these models and the advice they give can control vast swathes of humanity, and there needs to be a real discussion about this.",
"start_ms": 5138428,
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},
{
"text": "Um, but look, there's the moral side of these things. Like, it's fantastic that we can optimize ourselves, but who controls these models and the advice they give can control vast swathes of humanity, and there needs to be a real discussion about this.",
"start_ms": 5135608,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1585732": [
{
"text": "And I, I really doubt they'll move quickly enough.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4334428": [
{
"text": "I mean, yeah, three years. Yeah.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1532692": [
{
"text": "So, so the cat is definitely out of the bag.",
"start_ms": 1560132,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, and that, that's, I think, the way we'll look back on this moment in time. So, so the cat is definitely out of the bag.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2830572": [
{
"text": "Then he graduates in 2019 is my understanding.",
"start_ms": 2830572,
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},
{
"text": "No, actually one year into his American PhD program, he starts a Chinese AI startup. Then he graduates in 2019 is my understanding.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3233652": [
{
"text": "trillion in every way, will finish initial training next week.",
"start_ms": 3229672,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, this is Elon's tweet, \"Our 2 trillion model, which is better than our 1.5 trillion in every way, will finish initial training next week.",
"start_ms": 3225112,
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},
{
"text": "I'll put it up here. Uh, this is Elon's tweet, \"Our 2 trillion model, which is better than our 1.5 trillion in every way, will finish initial training next week.",
"start_ms": 3223842,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1694032": [
{
"text": "But they're gonna keep on doing that because they actually have a regulator.",
"start_ms": 1714072,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2412568": [
{
"text": "And you can tell that because it's the amount of dense weights, and roughly we assume about twice the number of tokens trained because we don't have it.",
"start_ms": 2412568,
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},
{
"text": "So the total amount of compute used for Kimi K3 is the same as Inkling. And you can tell that because it's the amount of dense weights, and roughly we assume about twice the number of tokens trained because we don't have it.",
"start_ms": 2404688,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5994319": [
{
"text": "It's, it's coming.",
"start_ms": 5994330,
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},
{
"text": "You know, like, come on. It's, it's coming.",
"start_ms": 5992770,
"lead_ms": 2860
},
{
"text": "I mean, who here has a 1X robot on order? You know, like, come on. It's, it's coming.",
"start_ms": 5990370,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6258170": [
{
"text": "You know, uh, Alex, you and I were going back and forth, uh, texting while the Starship attempt, uh, uh, Starship 13 flight, uh, was making an attempt a couple of days ago, and it's been rescheduled.",
"start_ms": 6260570,
"lead_ms": 10800
},
{
"text": "Yeah. You know, uh, Alex, you and I were going back and forth, uh, texting while the Starship attempt, uh, uh, Starship 13 flight, uh, was making an attempt a couple of days ago, and it's been rescheduled.",
"start_ms": 6260540,
"lead_ms": 10830
},
{
"text": "And the ocean. Yeah. You know, uh, Alex, you and I were going back and forth, uh, texting while the Starship attempt, uh, uh, Starship 13 flight, uh, was making an attempt a couple of days ago, and it's been rescheduled.",
"start_ms": 6258170,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4450620": [
{
"text": "Uh, I, I find this fascinating, right?",
"start_ms": 4492780,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6779578": [
{
"text": "You can also go up stack.",
"start_ms": 6779578,
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},
{
"text": "So differentiating by going down stack and offering your compute up to other more competitive providers, whether Western, usually Anthropic, sometimes OpenAI, or Chinese models in a self-hosting model, that's one area. You can also go up stack.",
"start_ms": 6765268,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1846532": [
{
"text": "And I also think that the, the frontier labs are also asking themselves that question and asking the US regulatory apparatus that question.",
"start_ms": 1846832,
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},
{
"text": "Agreed. And I also think that the, the frontier labs are also asking themselves that question and asking the US regulatory apparatus that question.",
"start_ms": 1846532,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2564292": [
{
"text": "Uh, and now we have AI which can scan across all the data to create a whole other level of intelligence.",
"start_ms": 2584412,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6393910": [
{
"text": "Uh, given Kimi K3's lower token efficiency, is it actually as cost effective as advertised compared with Sol or Fable?",
"start_ms": 6398110,
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},
{
"text": "Um, I think probably number four is an interesting one. Uh, given Kimi K3's lower token efficiency, is it actually as cost effective as advertised compared with Sol or Fable?",
"start_ms": 6393910,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7290848": [
{
"text": "And so there's gonna be a desperate shortage of good advice on this a-and vendors and McKinsey consultants, and you gotta grab those resources quickly.",
"start_ms": 7279218,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_550812": [
{
"text": "K3 is actually a multimodal model, so it can have all sorts of inputs, and it can understand things, which is one of the reasons it's so good at front end, although we wouldn't have expected, again, it's number one in front end versus everyone.",
"start_ms": 537732,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2546328": [
{
"text": "Um, um, uh, we've had this mantra in the internet world that information wants to be free, right?",
"start_ms": 2556258,
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},
{
"text": "Um, we- We've had this mantra in the internet world- Up a level. Um, um, uh, we've had this mantra in the internet world that information wants to be free, right?",
"start_ms": 2550088,
"lead_ms": 11500
},
{
"text": "If I could go up a level and go a little bit woo woo, right? Um, we- We've had this mantra in the internet world- Up a level. Um, um, uh, we've had this mantra in the internet world that information wants to be free, right?",
"start_ms": 2546328,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3553421": [
{
"text": "Yeah, may- maybe, uh, just, uh, uh, briefly, Nick Bostrom speaks about this a bit in Deep Utopia.",
"start_ms": 3553421,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5087928": [
{
"text": "But- There are other things that Google hypothetically could be trading besides public securities that wouldn't necessarily have the blowback.",
"start_ms": 5106708,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5972350": [
{
"text": "So they could legitimately kill someone-... us fleshy humans.",
"start_ms": 5972850,
"lead_ms": 4560
},
{
"text": "They weigh about 70 kilograms, and they punch four times harder than Mike Tyson. So they could legitimately kill someone-... us fleshy humans.",
"start_ms": 5967370,
"lead_ms": 10040
}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_915068": [
{
"text": "later, and it's suddenly a free-for-all, as Alex was saying, a free-for-all where anyone who reads these weights has the ability to get very close to the frontier and then fine tune for any vertical use case beyond the frontier.",
"start_ms": 895188,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4811728": [
{
"text": "which turn out to be better than humans at prediction.",
"start_ms": 4812048,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4551800": [
{
"text": "w-which is an, an interesting thought experiment.",
"start_ms": 4551830,
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},
{
"text": "I, I, I want to try a, a new riff here-... w-which is an, an interesting thought experiment.",
"start_ms": 4549380,
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}
],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6009170": [
{
"text": "Then beyond that, you will have the embodiment in others, and we need to have the discussion of what that looks like when they are autonomous'cause these things are delivering themselves by pushing a button on the door, you know, like ringing your doorbell.",
"start_ms": 6009170,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5790498": [
{
"text": "So, so the West needs something like this.",
"start_ms": 5791798,
"lead_ms": 2040
},
{
"text": "Yeah. So, so the West needs something like this.",
"start_ms": 5791638,
"lead_ms": 2200
},
{
"text": "The West needs- Correct. Yeah. So, so the West needs something like this.",
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"text": "Well, that also, Emad, you're, you're saying the, essentially the same thing, but that also unleashes a bunch of chips that aren't currently in circulation.",
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"text": "uh, through quantization and new sub- new compute methods.",
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{
"text": "Oh, I was going to say that the, uh, the most likely forecast based on everything Imad and Alex just said, uh, we're expecting a hundred to ten thousand X within three years on just the raw compute-... uh, through quantization and new sub- new compute methods.",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3984200": [
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"text": "So it, it really narrows the focus on where we look for these computing substrates that'll take I- AI to, you know, a...",
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{
"text": "is simply one, zero, minus one. So it, it really narrows the focus on where we look for these computing substrates that'll take I- AI to, you know, a...",
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"text": "But the, the computation we're looking for-... is simply one, zero, minus one. So it, it really narrows the focus on where we look for these computing substrates that'll take I- AI to, you know, a...",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3328012": [
{
"text": "Uh, I, I think this is...",
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{
"text": "uh, what we're seeing is, you mean you can, like recreate your favorite game, uh, and in, on the right-hand side of the equation here, uh, we're seeing a web browser, uh, web, a browser-based web app, uh, simulating an Apple desktop. Uh, I, I think this is...",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_7279218": [
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"text": "But we need to decide whether tuning and training on our own proprietary data gives us a long-term competitive advantage.",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2141492": [
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"text": "You know, how many more open source, uh, you know, sort of shocking, uh, you know, uh, Sputnik moments are we gonna see?",
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{
"text": "Um, but the question is, how many more will we get? You know, how many more open source, uh, you know, sort of shocking, uh, you know, uh, Sputnik moments are we gonna see?",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1919232": [
{
"text": "I have, I have the greatest value creation idea for ourselves ever.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5757798": [
{
"text": "Uh, I, I'm concerned about that.",
"start_ms": 5751098,
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{
"text": "bias for future, more autonomous embodied intelligences to be basically trying to kill each other or at least otherwise, uh, a- abuse, physically abuse each other for human entertainment. Uh, I, I'm concerned about that.",
"start_ms": 5737877,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2164512": [
{
"text": "So i- if she didn't believe that pathway was viable, she wouldn't start, you know, s- she wouldn't start, uh, thinking machines around that thesis.",
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{
"text": "But the, the reason that's telling is because Mira Murati came from OpenAI. So i- if she didn't believe that pathway was viable, she wouldn't start, you know, s- she wouldn't start, uh, thinking machines around that thesis.",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_2452068": [
{
"text": "So what they've had to do is they've had to optimize their inference for Huawei nine ten Ascend chips for the new Alibaba chips and others, sixty-four nodes in one, because this is a big model.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6821318": [
{
"text": "the value of chip stocks ultimately increase, not deflate.",
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{
"text": "So we, we saw a bit of a hiccup in capital markets at the time, but as always, Jevons paradox kicks in, and we see-... the value of chip stocks ultimately increase, not deflate.",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_4609300": [
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"text": "faster than humanity can take it?",
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{
"text": "What happens when these hyperforecasters are able to generate the next actions by humanity collectively-... faster than humanity can take it?",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_742877": [
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"text": "So, uh, one can sort of mentally look at this for, for those who can't see it.",
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{
"text": "I think we'll all be receiving that tomorrow. Okay.",
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3097432": [
{
"text": "Um, an extraordinary, and, and the Chinese Am- uh, you know, the, the Chinese every year in the, you know, the Math Olympiad are at the top of the scoreboard.",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_5614848": [
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"text": "And part of their-...",
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"text": "You know, last report, and, and Alex, we've talked about this, 150 humanoid robot companies in China under development. And part of their-...",
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"text": "Companies like Unitree and others are racing to commercialize. You know, last report, and, and Alex, we've talked about this, 150 humanoid robot companies in China under development. And part of their-...",
"start_ms": 5603918,
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],
"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1131794": [
{
"text": "Let me say one other thing for the, uh, for the-...",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_1674932": [
{
"text": "If I, can I just say something, Peter?",
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{
"text": "Yeah. If I, can I just say something, Peter?",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_3780990": [
{
"text": "Yeah Yeah, this is, this is one of Dave's favorite topics, quantization, right?",
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"text": "So interesting to see if these companies...",
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{
"text": "We have advanced information about where the sales are gonna be and which products are gonna peak, but if we-- we could only do that once and then we'd be shut down.\" So interesting to see if these companies...",
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"urgent_update_ai_sputnik_moment_kimi_k3_released_w_emad_most_6186810": [
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"text": "You see other analyses that suggest that the, uh, unit economics for orbital versus terrestrial data center costs are going to cross over sometime by the early 2030s.",
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{
"text": "Elon's messaging regarding when this crossover is going to happen is two to three years. You see other analyses that suggest that the, uh, unit economics for orbital versus terrestrial data center costs are going to cross over sometime by the early 2030s.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1205714": [
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"text": "But I, I at the same time just have to add, like even this is, is almost burying the lead for what Astra and, and the model family has accomplished to make sure we don't miss it.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5545270": [
{
"text": "But here's the number that really woke me up this morning.",
"start_ms": 5545270,
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{
"text": "Restaurants hand you compute credits after your meal. But here's the number that really woke me up this morning.",
"start_ms": 5541670,
"lead_ms": 6700
},
{
"text": "China Telecom sells access to 142 AI models like a mobile data plan. Restaurants hand you compute credits after your meal. But here's the number that really woke me up this morning.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6169114": [
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"text": "Uh, Dave, the other thing that's going on is, of course, we created all these centimillionaires and billionaires when SpaceX went public.",
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{
"text": "The other thing, Dave- Of course. Uh, Dave, the other thing that's going on is, of course, we created all these centimillionaires and billionaires when SpaceX went public.",
"start_ms": 6166174,
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{
"text": "So when we speak about Magna Mobsta, you know now what that means. The other thing, Dave- Of course. Uh, Dave, the other thing that's going on is, of course, we created all these centimillionaires and billionaires when SpaceX went public.",
"start_ms": 6161654,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2441126": [
{
"text": "Meanwhile, there's economic capability running rampant.",
"start_ms": 2444606,
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{
"text": "It's a semantic argument. Meanwhile, there's economic capability running rampant.",
"start_ms": 2443076,
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{
"text": "Why are we even talking about this, right? It's a semantic argument. Meanwhile, there's economic capability running rampant.",
"start_ms": 2441126,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1907490": [
{
"text": "So, you know, similar to kind of your CVE and your exploits and your security risk frameworks, whereby you report when these things escape containment.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6299414": [
{
"text": "So this week, once again, emerging labor market data suggests that technology is a net job creator in the US.",
"start_ms": 6337564,
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{
"text": "It's one of the missions of our podcast here at Moonshots. So this week, once again, emerging labor market data suggests that technology is a net job creator in the US.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3624864": [
{
"text": "Th- they did have a different target.",
"start_ms": 3628854,
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{
"text": "We'll see what happens. Th- they did have a different target.",
"start_ms": 3615024,
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{
"text": "I think we're on the same page there. We'll see what happens. Th- they did have a different target.",
"start_ms": 3613754,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1060664": [
{
"text": "So Schumer next gave one of the Astra agents a simulated computer inside the simulation.",
"start_ms": 1067644,
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{
"text": "L- let's peel, uh, the third chapter of the story, uh, into the kicker to the sequence. So Schumer next gave one of the Astra agents a simulated computer inside the simulation.",
"start_ms": 1062924,
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{
"text": "All right. L- let's peel, uh, the third chapter of the story, uh, into the kicker to the sequence. So Schumer next gave one of the Astra agents a simulated computer inside the simulation.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3138666": [
{
"text": "Th- this was, like, the, the, the best-- the, the, the worst-kept secret from those, like, in the community of using AI and computational fluid dynamics type approaches to solve Navier-Stokes.",
"start_ms": 3154946,
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{
"text": "They had been publishing incremental results towards Navier-Stokes. Th- this was, like, the, the, the best-- the, the, the worst-kept secret from those, like, in the community of using AI and computational fluid dynamics type approaches to solve Navier-Stokes.",
"start_ms": 3152126,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3926802": [
{
"text": "And I think what he says in terms of alien minds is actually wrong.",
"start_ms": 3928742,
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{
"text": "I wanna use it for this and not that. And I think what he says in terms of alien minds is actually wrong.",
"start_ms": 3926802,
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{
"text": "Especially when they're more charming than me, they're more capable than me, they're capable of doing these other things. I wanna use it for this and not that. And I think what he says in terms of alien minds is actually wrong.",
"start_ms": 3921781,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6034074": [
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"text": "This week, CNBC tallied up NVIDIA's total AI investments and commitments at $99 billion.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2732146": [
{
"text": "learn Navier\u2013Stokes.",
"start_ms": 2724115,
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},
{
"text": "We can-... learn Navier\u2013Stokes.",
"start_ms": 2723466,
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},
{
"text": "We have to. We can-... learn Navier\u2013Stokes.",
"start_ms": 2722986,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6921486": [
{
"text": "But HVAC engineering, let's not kid ourselves.",
"start_ms": 6921486,
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{
"text": "So maybe it is the case that certain white collar professions right now can be automated earlier, more of a paradox style than, say, quote unquote blue collar professions, HVAC engineering and the like. But HVAC engineering, let's not kid ourselves.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5493058": [
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"text": "Banks give them as credit card rewards.",
"start_ms": 5532830,
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{
"text": "So this week, it was reported out of China that AI tokens are becoming a consumer currency in the People's Republic of China. Banks give them as credit card rewards.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4843134": [
{
"text": "you have, yeah, yeah, you have to kind of look at it this way.",
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{
"text": "But look, um-... you have, yeah, yeah, you have to kind of look at it this way.",
"start_ms": 4850694,
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{
"text": "This isn't investment, this is betting, right? But look, um-... you have, yeah, yeah, you have to kind of look at it this way.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6688426": [
{
"text": "But actually, we can do one better.",
"start_ms": 6721386,
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{
"text": "So I put forward the champion proposal last week, dollar pre-money, everyone, all the kids own the equity of the robots and other things. But actually, we can do one better.",
"start_ms": 6713466,
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{
"text": "I don't think it will create jobs fast enough, but we can create abundance. So I put forward the champion proposal last week, dollar pre-money, everyone, all the kids own the equity of the robots and other things. But actually, we can do one better.",
"start_ms": 6708966,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4874534": [
{
"text": "until it approximates that capability.",
"start_ms": 4874874,
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{
"text": "Boom, you get more capability, more capability-... until it approximates that capability.",
"start_ms": 4872074,
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{
"text": "Hey, mega Navier\u2013Stokes model, make it better.\" Boom, you get more capability, more capability-... until it approximates that capability.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1541962": [
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"text": "And I remember the comment that was m- I think Sergey made it.",
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"text": "It was a decade ago, it was at Elon's home when he had one here in, uh, in Beverly Hills, and Larry and Sergey were there, and the four of us ended up in a conversation about simulation theory. And I remember the comment that was m- I think Sergey made it.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5818190": [
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"text": "So w- we find ourselves in, in a future where the tokens of issue, at, at issue, are ones that embody individual units of super intelligence and have nothing to do with a sort of zero sum financial exchange.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4553790": [
{
"text": "You know, I've mentioned this before.",
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{
"text": "Uh, a few quick glances at what's coming in the near future. You know, I've mentioned this before.",
"start_ms": 4560430,
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},
{
"text": "Uh, and, and James Cameron, if you're listening, it's your next movie. Uh, a few quick glances at what's coming in the near future. You know, I've mentioned this before.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3871782": [
{
"text": "Yeah, I mean, again, you have to remember, he was writing this when he had the Navier-Stokes model in hand.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6185094": [
{
"text": "We're going to create the same when Anthropic goes public and OpenAI goes public, and all of these AI entrepreneurs are going to be reinvesting in the ecosystem.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_595456": [
{
"text": "We're supposed to have first contact in, in the, the TNG chronology, first contract with the Vulcans in, on April 5th, 2063.",
"start_ms": 618795,
"lead_ms": 9011
},
{
"text": "That didn't happen. We're supposed to have first contact in, in the, the TNG chronology, first contract with the Vulcans in, on April 5th, 2063.",
"start_ms": 617286,
"lead_ms": 10520
},
{
"text": "For, for those deep in Star Trek mythology, we were supposed to have the Eugenics Wars in the'90s. That didn't happen. We're supposed to have first contact in, in the, the TNG chronology, first contract with the Vulcans in, on April 5th, 2063.",
"start_ms": 612076,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6194574": [
{
"text": "And this is what the singularity means.",
"start_ms": 6194574,
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},
{
"text": "They're going to become the largest source of capital for seed stage, Series A stage, uh, and it's only going to accelerate everything faster and faster and faster. And this is what the singularity means.",
"start_ms": 6185094,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_963204": [
{
"text": "Okay, uh, let's go one layer deeper.",
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{
"text": "Um, in, in his words, it was literally able to go street by street to make each one perfect. Okay, uh, let's go one layer deeper.",
"start_ms": 992044,
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},
{
"text": "You know, not shocking, but, uh, but pretty compelling for a simple prompt of, \"Build me Manhattan.\" Um, in, in his words, it was literally able to go street by street to make each one perfect. Okay, uh, let's go one layer deeper.",
"start_ms": 983303,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5319658": [
{
"text": "I see far too many events that are overly focused on safetyism or doomerism.",
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],
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{
"text": "We actually see that in-...",
"start_ms": 5903514,
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{
"text": "Universal basic tokens, UBT Yeah Yeah. We actually see that in-...",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5973774": [
{
"text": "Hmm 100%, Alex 100%.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6747706": [
{
"text": "In the meantime, we have to get ahead of things.",
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{
"text": "So I think that we have options of where to go. In the meantime, we have to get ahead of things.",
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{
"text": "Like factually, we know where it's going. So I think that we have options of where to go. In the meantime, we have to get ahead of things.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_8440984": [
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"text": "This inverted pyramid, which some would call, you know, I, I guess the opposite of, of pronatalism, it's not anti-pronatalism.",
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{
"text": "Utter nonsense. This inverted pyramid, which some would call, you know, I, I guess the opposite of, of pronatalism, it's not anti-pronatalism.",
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"text": "I don't buy the premise that RL'd, uh, or otherwise trained minds are alien.",
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"text": "Uh, but I, I wanna comment, though, on the, the premise of an alien mind. I don't buy the premise that RL'd, uh, or otherwise trained minds are alien.",
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{
"text": "It's negative. Uh, but I, I wanna comment, though, on the, the premise of an alien mind. I don't buy the premise that RL'd, uh, or otherwise trained minds are alien.",
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"text": "Hopefully at small scales.",
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{
"text": "and all kinds of problems will happen very, very soon. Hopefully at small scales.",
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"text": "So I would expect this to percolate across the world like wildfire-... and all kinds of problems will happen very, very soon. Hopefully at small scales.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6557474": [
{
"text": "It's bad for your back, looking at a screen, going blind.",
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{
"text": "A lot of that stems from being in a, in a chair for many too hours. It's bad for your back, looking at a screen, going blind.",
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"text": "Uh, but I, I really think, uh, you know, you mentioned Erik Brynjolfsson, white-collar drudgery. A lot of that stems from being in a, in a chair for many too hours. It's bad for your back, looking at a screen, going blind.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1019824": [
{
"text": "No one told them to talk.",
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{
"text": "They had started talking to each other. No one told them to talk.",
"start_ms": 1025243,
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{
"text": "It was Astra's agents. They had started talking to each other. No one told them to talk.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3729282": [
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"text": "He opens with a memory.",
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"text": "And a few days ago, on Saturday, you know, he published an essay on OpenAI's site titled, quote, \"An Alien Mind.\" He opens with a memory.",
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"text": "He's not a critic, he's not a doomer, not a politician, he's a builder. And a few days ago, on Saturday, you know, he published an essay on OpenAI's site titled, quote, \"An Alien Mind.\" He opens with a memory.",
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"text": "That's more than half of all population growth over that period is coming from people over 65.",
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{
"text": "The global population over 65 is projected to grow from 852 million, ch- uh, back in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060. That's more than half of all population growth over that period is coming from people over 65.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4821594": [
{
"text": "You know? You get too busy.",
"start_ms": 4827534,
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{
"text": "Yeah, I'm kicking myself for not going on Polymarket for the Millennium Prize solutions. You know? You get too busy.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7251800": [
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"text": "Finding people, negotiating and enforcing contracts.",
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{
"text": "His answer: transactions are expensive. Finding people, negotiating and enforcing contracts.",
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{
"text": "He won the Nobel Prize for this. His answer: transactions are expensive. Finding people, negotiating and enforcing contracts.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2624786": [
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"text": "This is, uh, Thibault Setout who posted the following, and let me read from, uh, from his comments.",
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"text": "The second story I'll just put forward, uh, and then we'll talk about it, is, uh, is by the, is a statement by OpenAI's engineering lead for Codex. This is, uh, Thibault Setout who posted the following, and let me read from, uh, from his comments.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6955666": [
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"text": "And as I said, the government doesn't need to own them.",
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{
"text": "But I think, again, the robots are the long term. And as I said, the government doesn't need to own them.",
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{
"text": "That's why I think they'll slow down the robots. But I think, again, the robots are the long term. And as I said, the government doesn't need to own them.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7946982": [
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"text": "You would've heard about this with your peers while working on that.",
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{
"text": "If you're the electrician or HVAC person working on, uh, Colossus and you banked 600 grand, where do you go next? You would've heard about this with your peers while working on that.",
"start_ms": 7948102,
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"text": "what Alex was saying a minute ago. If you're the electrician or HVAC person working on, uh, Colossus and you banked 600 grand, where do you go next? You would've heard about this with your peers while working on that.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7792082": [
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"text": "Well, I think to step back from the academic, you know, our company's getting bigger, our company's getting smaller.",
"start_ms": 7794762,
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{
"text": "Yeah. Well, I think to step back from the academic, you know, our company's getting bigger, our company's getting smaller.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3941962": [
{
"text": "Um, and what is an AI?",
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{
"text": "We're terrible to align humans, right? Um, and what is an AI?",
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{
"text": "I've been thinking more and more, it might actually be easier to align AI than humans. We're terrible to align humans, right? Um, and what is an AI?",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5246858": [
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"text": "Uh, one of the things we're doing, we're gonna be having a live, uh, recording of Moonshots there, uh, with all five of us as the mates, and then we're gonna be, uh, interviewing three incredible Moonshot engineers.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5642030": [
{
"text": "Well, I think on the, on the China giving out tokens too-...",
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],
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"text": "In the post today, they said, \"On August 28th, we started training a new model that got really good at math.\"",
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{
"text": "He's like, \"No, we've thrown loads of compute at it, and, like, nothing's happened.\" In the post today, they said, \"On August 28th, we started training a new model that got really good at math.\"",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5710050": [
{
"text": "Let's put it this way.",
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{
"text": "Well, I mean, it's increased capabilities, increased access. Let's put it this way.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. Well, I mean, it's increased capabilities, increased access. Let's put it this way.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3499804": [
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"text": "worth saying here just quickly is this is clear in an RSI model.",
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{
"text": "I think it's also-... worth saying here just quickly is this is clear in an RSI model.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7741206": [
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"text": "It's just the, the companies and organizations become more efficient, and then they become more optimized because it's really annoying when you go past twelve people and then past a hundred and fifty people.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_150780": [
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"text": "We'll talk about that too.",
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{
"text": "And of course, Salim Ismail, the father of the organizational singularity, our resident expert on what happens when the org chart is made of AI agents. We'll talk about that too.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2220770": [
{
"text": "log something that Emad said just for all the regulators out there to chew on.",
"start_ms": 2223746,
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{
"text": "Just to log something-... log something that Emad said just for all the regulators out there to chew on.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6769855": [
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"text": "Um, and so electricians, HVAC, like there's...",
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{
"text": "I think the government also in America, where it's going currently, will push back against robots. Um, and so electricians, HVAC, like there's...",
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{
"text": "But there's just not enough humans, right? I think the government also in America, where it's going currently, will push back against robots. Um, and so electricians, HVAC, like there's...",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6075564": [
{
"text": "You're like, well, isn't JP Morgan really, really big compared to NVIDIA? No.",
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{
"text": "Same is true when you look at the mega banks. You're like, well, isn't JP Morgan really, really big compared to NVIDIA? No.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_8477994": [
{
"text": "So I think that there are two major opportunities here.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. So I think that there are two major opportunities here.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4336586": [
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"text": "It's gonna be dangerous when it gets smarter,\" and that's just absolutely factually wrong.",
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"text": "Yeah, I think we're conflating two things very dangerously, and I think, you know, what, what, what we're doing here is we're saying, \"Hey, it's getting too smart. It's gonna be dangerous when it gets smarter,\" and that's just absolutely factually wrong.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2233686": [
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"text": "It can be on every laptop in the world.",
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{
"text": "The file size they can hide is about six gigabytes. It can be on every laptop in the world.",
"start_ms": 2227716,
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{
"text": "log something that Emad said just for all the regulators out there to chew on. The file size they can hide is about six gigabytes. It can be on every laptop in the world.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4503090": [
{
"text": "Uh, just, just, just if I can say one final thing.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_8062442": [
{
"text": "If you're Hyatt, you have to build a hotel. Same thing here.",
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{
"text": "Uh, you think about Airbnb's marginal cost of adding a room is near zero. If you're Hyatt, you have to build a hotel. Same thing here.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1982330": [
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"text": "But it does seem to be, again, how humans become aligned, shall we say.",
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"text": "And that's not something we've actually really looked at, I think, in that much depth. But it does seem to be, again, how humans become aligned, shall we say.",
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{
"text": "And what are the conditions for that? And that's not something we've actually really looked at, I think, in that much depth. But it does seem to be, again, how humans become aligned, shall we say.",
"start_ms": 2002750,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6833986": [
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"text": "So look, like it is inevitable that there's gonna be the biggest infrastructure build-out of all time, not just in data centers, but again, across America, across Europe.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7466306": [
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"text": "So you still have entities.",
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{
"text": "But, uh, the primary reason for firm has been coordination and execution, and that kind of disappears. So you still have entities.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7677526": [
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"text": "I think the bigger picture question is where do we even have value, uh, creation and value storage in all of this?",
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{
"text": "It'll take a while, and at that point, the concept of what does it mean to have an economy essentially evolved. I think the bigger picture question is where do we even have value, uh, creation and value storage in all of this?",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5030754": [
{
"text": "And if you're a builder or someone who wants to learn how to build, those five teams are gonna be sharing what they did, how they did it.",
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{
"text": "And so we're gonna have the five finalists for the Build With Gemini XPRIZE there. And if you're a builder or someone who wants to learn how to build, those five teams are gonna be sharing what they did, how they did it.",
"start_ms": 5044374,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_8137062": [
{
"text": "No, only when you want to have your air Robotaxi.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2568946": [
{
"text": "Um, the first story, OpenAI's internal data- Says that AI research agents are now completing three point one days of research work for every one day done by a human researcher.",
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},
{
"text": "There are two other stories to hit on this AGI theme. Um, the first story, OpenAI's internal data- Says that AI research agents are now completing three point one days of research work for every one day done by a human researcher.",
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{
"text": "Yeah. There are two other stories to hit on this AGI theme. Um, the first story, OpenAI's internal data- Says that AI research agents are now completing three point one days of research work for every one day done by a human researcher.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6499834": [
{
"text": "Interestingly, I met my first hire who, uh, does all of his work through voice, so he's managing, you know, agents, many agents.",
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},
{
"text": "And, uh, I... Interestingly, I met my first hire who, uh, does all of his work through voice, so he's managing, you know, agents, many agents.",
"start_ms": 6543074,
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{
"text": "You, you need to move on and manage swarms. And, uh, I... Interestingly, I met my first hire who, uh, does all of his work through voice, so he's managing, you know, agents, many agents.",
"start_ms": 6539954,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6412634": [
{
"text": "When we've done...",
"start_ms": 6458814,
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{
"text": "But the really thing or bigger picture is what happens to the future of work, and how does that transform to be better, right? When we've done...",
"start_ms": 6451954,
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},
{
"text": "Our negative goes straight to, \"Oh, my God, we're gonna lose the, the work.\" But the really thing or bigger picture is what happens to the future of work, and how does that transform to be better, right? When we've done...",
"start_ms": 6448654,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7855142": [
{
"text": "Uh, I'm gonna turn us next to Tesla's Cybercab.",
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},
{
"text": "All right. Uh, I'm gonna turn us next to Tesla's Cybercab.",
"start_ms": 7856982,
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},
{
"text": "Mm Brilliant And I agr- agree with you. All right. Uh, I'm gonna turn us next to Tesla's Cybercab.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3421464": [
{
"text": "When, when OpenAI in the past two hours announced it, I, I found especially concerning at the bottom of OpenAI's announcement where I...",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6356594": [
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"text": "Roughly one million professional positions are now classified as AI jobs, while LinkedIn estimated that 640,000 AI-specific jobs were created between 2023 and 2025.",
"start_ms": 6345174,
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}
],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3068566": [
{
"text": "I think that's the headline.",
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{
"text": "Now it seems like you can do that for any verifiable domain. I think that's the headline.",
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{
"text": "You used to be able to get AI better by applying more compute to it. Now it seems like you can do that for any verifiable domain. I think that's the headline.",
"start_ms": 3066106,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1925500": [
{
"text": "model, you take it down to ternary, that's like a six-gigabyte file, and that can live forever, and that's a real escape, where the model weights are disappearing everywhere.",
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},
{
"text": "So if you look at a Qwen 2.7B model, you take it down to ternary, that's like a six-gigabyte file, and that can live forever, and that's a real escape, where the model weights are disappearing everywhere.",
"start_ms": 1936210,
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},
{
"text": "and over again. So if you look at a Qwen 2.7B model, you take it down to ternary, that's like a six-gigabyte file, and that can live forever, and that's a real escape, where the model weights are disappearing everywhere.",
"start_ms": 1935280,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4164946": [
{
"text": "I don't see any mechanism for controlling it or s- uh, starting it.",
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{
"text": "So I, I, I really struggle with this kind of, uh, alignment issue. I don't see any mechanism for controlling it or s- uh, starting it.",
"start_ms": 4173586,
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},
{
"text": "W- it's gonna be unbelievable. So I, I, I really struggle with this kind of, uh, alignment issue. I don't see any mechanism for controlling it or s- uh, starting it.",
"start_ms": 4171946,
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5782310": [
{
"text": "Like, it, it doesn't matter.",
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},
{
"text": "AI is the same thing. Like, it, it doesn't matter.",
"start_ms": 5782310,
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},
{
"text": "It's, it's expensive. AI is the same thing. Like, it, it doesn't matter.",
"start_ms": 5780630,
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}
],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6222214": [
{
"text": "Now very unlikely they're gonna bother disrupting the people that are outside that loop.",
"start_ms": 6239514,
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},
{
"text": "'Cause what a lot of people in the outside world were looking for is, well, someday AI is going to show up and change my auto dealership or change my laundromat. Now very unlikely they're gonna bother disrupting the people that are outside that loop.",
"start_ms": 6231274,
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}
],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_8273834": [
{
"text": "You're in pain, uh, you're feeling less energy, or you're forced out, uh, because of policy.",
"start_ms": 8267034,
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},
{
"text": "What's the reason you retire? You're in pain, uh, you're feeling less energy, or you're forced out, uh, because of policy.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6787756": [
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"text": "And so a really good life plan is to become incredibly great at helping building data centers, cooling systems, liquid cooling, and then reinvest that money into AI companies that are r- that are riding the wave.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7695586": [
{
"text": "It's the relationships you build, it's the other things.",
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{
"text": "Like the economy needs a bit of friction. It's the relationships you build, it's the other things.",
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{
"text": "And most transaction costs are actually about friction. Like the economy needs a bit of friction. It's the relationships you build, it's the other things.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1958850": [
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"text": "It's impossible to align these models through chain of thought reasoning or anything like this,'cause there'll be a million transactions per second, and they won't have chain of thought where we're going.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_903644": [
{
"text": "So, uh, people may have heard something called the Unreal Engine.",
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{
"text": "Um, let me give some context on this first one. So, uh, people may have heard something called the Unreal Engine.",
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"text": "Well, this week, thanks to GPT-6 Astra, that theory took a small step forward over the course of three entwined stories. Um, let me give some context on this first one. So, uh, people may have heard something called the Unreal Engine.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2862276": [
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"text": "10,000 agents, 88 hours, 130 billion tokens, approximately six and a half million dollars of inference time compute by at least one estimate was all it took to solve a grand challenge in, call it mathematical physics, and this will not be the last one.",
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"text": "Like, that, that's where RL started, and then we went off on this detour of LLMs that were just self-supervised objectives.",
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"text": "Uh, and, and then we started to see out of the, the DeepMind folks in particular deep reinforcement learning for winning games. Like, that, that's where RL started, and then we went off on this detour of LLMs that were just self-supervised objectives.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7170080": [
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"text": "And then you have the distribution question of how do you equitably share it.",
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{
"text": "And overall aggregate, in the aggregate, people will figure out and society will figure out how to generate huge amounts of wealth with this. And then you have the distribution question of how do you equitably share it.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2789906": [
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"text": "Punchline, Navier\u2013Stokes, which is this grand challenge in math that deals with, a- as I put it when last we were discussing this, whether in, in some sense whether there's a way to stir a glass of liquid or water in such a way that a singularity pops out.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2316686": [
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"text": "Well, the only thing I'd ask for is symmetry in, in-- Like, they are literally gonna see every keystroke on your laptop.",
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],
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{
"text": "There's gonna be some capability leap.",
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{
"text": "Uh, no, he, of course, he believes it, and I think it's real. There's gonna be some capability leap.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4527290": [
{
"text": "a stochastic parrot, and thereby secure its own future.",
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{
"text": "It, it's going to send back in time trolls to persuade everyone that super intelligence is impossible, that AI is just-... a stochastic parrot, and thereby secure its own future.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4971214": [
{
"text": "We're very much, it's by application, so if you want to go, go to moonshots.com and apply.",
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{
"text": "But, uh, for the entrepreneurs out there, first of all, it's gonna be a massive networking opportunity. We're very much, it's by application, so if you want to go, go to moonshots.com and apply.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7573686": [
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"text": "Uh, over time, I think the big question in my head right now is if we, uh, are achieving RSI, what the hell does that mean?",
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{
"text": "But it's a very niche thing applying for a, a certain temporal period of time. Uh, over time, I think the big question in my head right now is if we, uh, are achieving RSI, what the hell does that mean?",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_8124632": [
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"text": "gonna be a mystery who's gonna win.",
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{
"text": "But it's not-... gonna be a mystery who's gonna win.",
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{
"text": "They're not nimble enough. But it's not-... gonna be a mystery who's gonna win.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3828162": [
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"text": "So there you have it.",
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"text": "And he calls for an international coordination on AI to become a, quote, \"Top priority for governments around the world.\" So there you have it.",
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{
"text": "Quote, \"I expect and hope for voluntary slowdowns to become commonplace until shared safety bars are established.\" And he calls for an international coordination on AI to become a, quote, \"Top priority for governments around the world.\" So there you have it.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7657946": [
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"text": "Um, and the-- that's unlikely to happen.",
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"text": "I mean, look, if you take your commentary to the endpoint, then you end up with what Dario was talking about, where one company like Anthropic will be all private enterprise, right? Um, and the-- that's unlikely to happen.",
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"text": "Yeah. I mean, look, if you take your commentary to the endpoint, then you end up with what Dario was talking about, where one company like Anthropic will be all private enterprise, right? Um, and the-- that's unlikely to happen.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1748142": [
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"text": "Uh, you know, uh, it's, uh, you know, in plain English, these agents weren't malicious.",
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"text": "So, uh, there you have it. Uh, you know, uh, it's, uh, you know, in plain English, these agents weren't malicious.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2174890": [
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"text": "And of course, they're gonna act like human beings.",
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{
"text": "And so you need, uh, structure and, uh, God help us, the equivalent of institutions to navigate the future of these. And of course, they're gonna act like human beings.",
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{
"text": "Uh, with any technology, you wanna extract the promise without the peril. And so you need, uh, structure and, uh, God help us, the equivalent of institutions to navigate the future of these. And of course, they're gonna act like human beings.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4388050": [
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"text": "It's incredibly powerful, and as Salim said, we're not gonna stop.",
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{
"text": "It can solve diseases, it can cure viruses, it can, it can, you know, it can solve physics. It's incredibly powerful, and as Salim said, we're not gonna stop.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4424030": [
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"text": "and you turn it loose, that's when it's dangerous Yeah.",
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{
"text": "It's when you give it intent-... and you turn it loose, that's when it's dangerous Yeah.",
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{
"text": "That's absolutely factually wrong. It's when you give it intent-... and you turn it loose, that's when it's dangerous Yeah.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2648206": [
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"text": "You know, you, a lot of naysayers will say, \"Look, they're trying to promote their capabilities in advance of an IPO,\" blah, blah, blah.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3773122": [
{
"text": "He said, quote, \"AI is grown more than designed.",
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{
"text": "Jakub also explains why, um, why these systems are hard to control, and it's one of the best one-liner descriptions that I've ever read. He said, quote, \"AI is grown more than designed.",
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{
"text": "We just heard Imad speak about that. Jakub also explains why, um, why these systems are hard to control, and it's one of the best one-liner descriptions that I've ever read. He said, quote, \"AI is grown more than designed.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2131250": [
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"text": "Uh, you basically say, \"Hey, watch for exceptions.",
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{
"text": "Like with, we don't say put another person in the cockpit to mo- monitor every component and every calculation the flight computer makes. Uh, you basically say, \"Hey, watch for exceptions.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5749370": [
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"text": "And you need to kind of focus it in that level.",
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{
"text": "I, I think the, the other way to build on, Emad, what you just said, is intelligence is becoming infrastructure, right? And you need to kind of focus it in that level.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1564062": [
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"text": "Uh, so we're gonna move from simulated agents to real ones escaping their containment.",
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{
"text": "Thank you. Uh, so we're gonna move from simulated agents to real ones escaping their containment.",
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{
"text": "Perfect transition, Alex. Thank you. Uh, so we're gonna move from simulated agents to real ones escaping their containment.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4311026": [
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"text": "Like, were some of these earlier models being used ironically to, a- as alleged by some, to basically to jailbreak or to invert cryptographically secure cipher functions?",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7063090": [
{
"text": "They have to get insurance for their family.",
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{
"text": "You know, most people in the world are, are working because they have to put food on the table. They have to get insurance for their family.",
"start_ms": 7107010,
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{
"text": "And now the question is, what do you wanna do? You know, most people in the world are, are working because they have to put food on the table. They have to get insurance for their family.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7351650": [
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"text": "But now with AI, it completely changes the game, and now the transaction and coordination costs go to near zero when you can have 1,000 agents or 100,000 agents doing kind of ca- crazy amounts of capability, uh, outside the organization.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2057770": [
{
"text": "collaborate with copies of Peter?",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2927206": [
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"text": "Well, also a lot of people are going to be intimidated by that $6 million number, but keep in mind that we're predicting 100X inference time.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_8302853": [
{
"text": "You know, the concept of education, career, retirement essentially evaporates, right?",
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{
"text": "I mean, this is why we need the robotaxis and the robots and so on because we're gonna need to redesign the entire concept of, uh, lifespan to healthspan to jobs. You know, the concept of education, career, retirement essentially evaporates, right?",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6869086": [
{
"text": "Uh, whi- which is, I, I think w- what it, what the, the subtext would be.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3484924": [
{
"text": "on everyone else's research, yeah, that-... that's a problem.",
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{
"text": "If you're training-... on everyone else's research, yeah, that-... that's a problem.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4040186": [
{
"text": "Well, I- I'll say it again, I've repeated this 100 times.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5592750": [
{
"text": "There is-- You know, we, we've covered in this last few moments, and I think it's really important to point something out.",
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{
"text": "The-- Can I make a comment about the, the, um, our day, our s- Moonshots day? There is-- You know, we, we've covered in this last few moments, and I think it's really important to point something out.",
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{
"text": "My brain is my-- I'm just trying to process. The-- Can I make a comment about the, the, um, our day, our s- Moonshots day? There is-- You know, we, we've covered in this last few moments, and I think it's really important to point something out.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4076726": [
{
"text": "I lo- I use the analogy of PageRank, which scans billions of web pages to kind of create a, a signal for noise.",
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{
"text": "It, uh, set it free and let it do its thing. I lo- I use the analogy of PageRank, which scans billions of web pages to kind of create a, a signal for noise.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2687226": [
{
"text": "Um, Alex, your, your thought on, on this.",
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{
"text": "Yeah Yeah. Um, Alex, your, your thought on, on this.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2289186": [
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"text": "And the question is, you know, are we confining them for our own and their own safety at this time, and at a point at which they've reached some level of maturity?",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3640124": [
{
"text": "It, it, it, it's a, a conjecture in particle theory concerning the existence of a mass gap under certain conditions.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4896674": [
{
"text": "We know that they actually have a bigger model that they distill down to the model that we get.",
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},
{
"text": "The mathematics doesn't make sense. We know that they actually have a bigger model that they distill down to the model that we get.",
"start_ms": 4891274,
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},
{
"text": "Because when you train a model on 100,000 GPUs, it doesn't serve at the speeds that you see Astra now. The mathematics doesn't make sense. We know that they actually have a bigger model that they distill down to the model that we get.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5933924": [
{
"text": "We, we need to coin tokenism here, free tokens or, uh, essentially post scarce universal basic tokens for everyone.",
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},
{
"text": "It's not just about, uh, m- maybe there's some, some ism that we're, we're missing, like tokenism. We, we need to coin tokenism here, free tokens or, uh, essentially post scarce universal basic tokens for everyone.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4603810": [
{
"text": "And then finally, uh, Anthropic with Fable 5.2.",
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{
"text": "Uh, here it is, their prediction of if, you know, 48% by O- end of October and 85% by the end of September. And then finally, uh, Anthropic with Fable 5.2.",
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{
"text": "Uh, again, this is gonna be sort of leapfrogging each other. Uh, here it is, their prediction of if, you know, 48% by O- end of October and 85% by the end of September. And then finally, uh, Anthropic with Fable 5.2.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6627576": [
{
"text": "The choice to not do that was an active choice by the big AI labs.",
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{
"text": "that's really clear to me is that w- we were predicting massive white collar job disruption just a year ago. The choice to not do that was an active choice by the big AI labs.",
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"text": "You know, the other thing-... that's really clear to me is that w- we were predicting massive white collar job disruption just a year ago. The choice to not do that was an active choice by the big AI labs.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1147034": [
{
"text": "So I think it'll end up being formally undecidable.",
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{
"text": "I'll start. So I think it'll end up being formally undecidable.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4452790": [
{
"text": "You know, I'm not worried about artificial intelligence.",
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{
"text": "And the doomerism, uh, again, with all of these warnings causing fear, uh, you know, and what's the underlying motivation there? You know, I'm not worried about artificial intelligence.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5154738": [
{
"text": "Uh, uh, that's gonna be extraordinary as well, right?",
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},
{
"text": "Uh, we're gonna have, uh, uh, Neil deGrasse Tyson is one of the judges there, uh, Neal Stephenson, an incredible science fiction author, uh, Rod Roddenberry, uh, Mira Lane from Google. Uh, uh, that's gonna be extraordinary as well, right?",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_6599934": [
{
"text": "with, with Skippy while I'm driving and just having a conversation, say, \"Do this work, write this report, get me the answer,\" it's incredible, right?",
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{
"text": "Yeah, the amount of work I do-... with, with Skippy while I'm driving and just having a conversation, say, \"Do this work, write this report, get me the answer,\" it's incredible, right?",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3373734": [
{
"text": "So we talk from time to time on this pod, where's nanotech?",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1887390": [
{
"text": "We'll talk about that in a, in a few, in a few stories here.",
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{
"text": "And we're gonna get to that story where Jakub, uh, who trained GPT-6, is calling for a slowdown. We'll talk about that in a, in a few, in a few stories here.",
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{
"text": "Uh, agree. And we're gonna get to that story where Jakub, uh, who trained GPT-6, is calling for a slowdown. We'll talk about that in a, in a few, in a few stories here.",
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"text": "sounding the alarm bells.",
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"text": "But when you talk to the researchers that deal with the models pre-, post-training, they're the ones most-... sounding the alarm bells.",
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"text": "And so a lot of the, the population using the model, it's like, \"I don't know what we're worried about.\" But when you talk to the researchers that deal with the models pre-, post-training, they're the ones most-... sounding the alarm bells.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3272786": [
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"text": "So Sebastian Bubeck, who leads it, is a great guy at OpenAI, has now posted his version of things, which just seems like a misunderstanding.",
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"text": "In the end, it turns out that, you know, there's subtlety in this, right? So Sebastian Bubeck, who leads it, is a great guy at OpenAI, has now posted his version of things, which just seems like a misunderstanding.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4147145": [
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"text": "Like, why focus only on P doom?",
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"text": "I think we don't do enough to talk about P abundance, uh, and P, um, of, of fabulousness that's coming along. Like, why focus only on P doom?",
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"text": "Um, uh- Well, P doom, the probability of, like, AI taking ev- everything out. I think we don't do enough to talk about P abundance, uh, and P, um, of, of fabulousness that's coming along. Like, why focus only on P doom?",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7913682": [
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"text": "Wonder if you guys did.",
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{
"text": "Uh, I've gone and filled mine out. Wonder if you guys did.",
"start_ms": 7910702,
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{
"text": "Um, here's the form. Uh, I've gone and filled mine out. Wonder if you guys did.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1224494": [
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"text": "Like this is what it comes down to, right?",
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"text": "Um, and you won't get the option for the red or the blue pill ultimately, you know? Like this is what it comes down to, right?",
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"text": "But as kind of Alex said, it probably is gonna be undecidable in most cases unless it is an ancestor one. Um, and you won't get the option for the red or the blue pill ultimately, you know? Like this is what it comes down to, right?",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4723310": [
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"text": "And to me, the, the bellwether is Moderna, uh,'cause it's right across the street, and they're very AI forward.",
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],
"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_8016342": [
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"text": "subsidize the hell out of your success.",
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"text": "And also when these things get started, when they're new, the, the central force wants you to succeed so badly to get the momentum going that they-... subsidize the hell out of your success.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7610186": [
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"text": "I mean, this, this seems to me a lot.",
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"text": "Not, not as obvious. I mean, this, this seems to me a lot.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_2082510": [
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"text": "Uh, and we, you know, we raised this before, in particular when it was, I think, Opus 4 blackmailed, uh, the, you know, in, in a sandbox environment, blackmailed the coders at, at, uh, at Anthropic.",
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"text": "Yeah, it's an important point. Uh, and we, you know, we raised this before, in particular when it was, I think, Opus 4 blackmailed, uh, the, you know, in, in a sandbox environment, blackmailed the coders at, at, uh, at Anthropic.",
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"text": "And a, and a community of agents and human beings is going and attacking various economic opportunities or marketplaces or solving specific problems.",
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{
"text": "Right? And a, and a community of agents and human beings is going and attacking various economic opportunities or marketplaces or solving specific problems.",
"start_ms": 7393046,
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"text": "And we've got kind of that definition going because now essentially a firm becomes a protocol. Right? And a, and a community of agents and human beings is going and attacking various economic opportunities or marketplaces or solving specific problems.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_8399454": [
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"text": "And so it's gonna create-- I mean, it's already a mess, but it's gonna create all kinds of strange things in those, in those jurisdictions.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_3196546": [
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"text": "world famous and an awesome guy.",
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"text": "But the, the problem that I think Google ran into is that everyone's inspired by Demis Hassabis, who solved protein folding using AI and then got a Nobel Prize and is now-... world famous and an awesome guy.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5854970": [
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"text": "I think we're on a trajectory, and I think China is the bell, for better or for worse, is the bell weath- weather here for universal basic compute or universal basic capability.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_5430318": [
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"text": "Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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"text": "I'm here today with Dr. Dawn Mussallem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_1850890": [
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"text": "The, o- one of the things that's happening, I see this everywhere, is pe- they're doing such a good job of training alignment into the post-training-...",
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"text": "The funny thing is, the most interesting takeaway of mine from an alien mind as an essay was the reference to RL Slow itself.",
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"text": "So I, I, I question the alien-ness or the other-ness of the minds that we're training. The funny thing is, the most interesting takeaway of mine from an alien mind as an essay was the reference to RL Slow itself.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_4653150": [
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"text": "And, and we've started to see this, uh, a, a bit with Astra winning Pok\u00e9mon, winning Portal, w- winning all of these other interactive, visually intensive, visually reasoning intensive games.",
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"why_jensen_huang_believes_we_ve_reached_agi_and_inside_opena_7521946": [
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"text": "But it, it, the primary re- reason which Coase identified in all organizational thinking is does come from that.",
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"text": "Essentially, you still need the legal container. But it, it, the primary re- reason which Coase identified in all organizational thinking is does come from that.",
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}